Bracketology / Weekend Games
- Status
Yep. Heard B10 network analysts talking about the Injury to Mag makes Rutgers much weaker to the tournament committee (compared to early in season).
So,... That injury coupled with their steep slide,... could weigh negatively on their chances.
Yep. I think whoever loses between Rutgers and Michigan on Thursday is out and the winner has a chance vs Purdue to get in.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
"Safely in" is an outlier take on the current state of affairs for Rutgers. The collapse loss to MN pummeled them to squarely on the bubble, no other way to put it. They are at 18-13 after getting beatdown by NW, and a loss to Mich would make them 18-14...hardly tourney material, especially with them losing 6 of their last 8 (7 of 9 if they lose on Thurs). Even though the committee takes a holistic resume approach, the collapse is very notable (and their NET has dropped to 38 through yesterday and is sure to drop more after the loss tonight and if they lose Thurs).
Many brackets have them as a last 4 bye right now...not inconceivable for them to completely drop out if Michigan beats them again.
EDIT: The win @Purdue is propping up their resume right now, but the MN loss completely negated that win IMO.
Last edited:
I assumed it would be #4
Interestingly, no school heads into the BTT with a winning or losing streak of more than two games.
This is from that crazy spreadsheet.
Check my math here…I think if all other results stayed the same but instead we had won, we’d be living in row 37.
Which would have been a 4 seed.
Edit: Which also means we would have played the winner of the MSU vs tOSU/Wisky game. Then on to Purdue.
What might have been. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Last edited:
I disagree with this. Who else would be taking their spot? UNC lost, Memphis lost, Pitt lost, etc
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Pretty simple: If you are in a position of last 4 byes (many bracketolgists currently have Rutgers there) going into championship week, you are not safely in the field.
By definition, safely in means that no matter what happens going forward, that they are in. For Rutgers, that is not the case. Quite a few teams can pass them in championship week (Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan can in theory pass them from B1G alone based upon their performances in the B1G Tourney). Add in bid thiefs and other performances from bubble teams, and you can see that Rutgers is far from "Safely In" the field.
In short, Rutgers needs to beat Michigan on Thursday. Otherwise, they are in rough shape...they may still get in as a last 4 in, but they would be sweating bullets.
To support my previous post I think the pundits put an exaggerated emphasis on these late season games to encourage viewership and this idea of win = in, loss = out which just isn’t the case when you break it down.
32 Auto-bids
36 At-large
LOCKS - 32 At-Large
ACC: [Miami], Virginia, Duke
BIG10: [Purdue], Indiana, NW, MSU, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, PSU
BIG12: [Kansas], Texas, Baylor, K State, TCU, Iowa State, Ok State, WVU
BIGE: [Marquette], Xavier, UConn, Creighton
PAC12: [UCLA], Arizona, Oregon
SEC: [Alabama], Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas
Others: Saint Mary’s, Boise State, Memphis, Nevada
* teams in bracket assumed to count as auto-bid, not at-large, but no change in metrics as long as one of teams listed wins conference tourney
BUBBLE - CHOOSE 4
Utah State, North Texas, New Mexico, Pitt, NC State, Providence, Seton Hall, Michigan, Wisconsin, USC, ASU, Miss State
Choose 4 teams from the bubble list above, then compare Rutgers resume to the 5th best team - I think they’re safe even with a loss 1st game in tourney.
32 Auto-bids
36 At-large
LOCKS - 32 At-Large
ACC: [Miami], Virginia, Duke
BIG10: [Purdue], Indiana, NW, MSU, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, PSU
BIG12: [Kansas], Texas, Baylor, K State, TCU, Iowa State, Ok State, WVU
BIGE: [Marquette], Xavier, UConn, Creighton
PAC12: [UCLA], Arizona, Oregon
SEC: [Alabama], Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas
Others: Saint Mary’s, Boise State, Memphis, Nevada
* teams in bracket assumed to count as auto-bid, not at-large, but no change in metrics as long as one of teams listed wins conference tourney
BUBBLE - CHOOSE 4
Utah State, North Texas, New Mexico, Pitt, NC State, Providence, Seton Hall, Michigan, Wisconsin, USC, ASU, Miss State
Choose 4 teams from the bubble list above, then compare Rutgers resume to the 5th best team - I think they’re safe even with a loss 1st game in tourney.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Sorry, but I cannot see either Rutgers or Penn State as "locks" for the tourney. In fact, almost every analyst has both these teams as work left to do. Can they make the field if they lose in their first game...sure, but they are hardly a lock at this point. Their fate would be dependent upon what happens to other bubble teams and if there are bid thieves.
Your listed bubble teams could greatly improve their resume with deep runs in their respective tourney, and most importantly, a bid thief or 2 is possible. For example, BYU is looking like a tough out, and while highly unlikely, they can steal a bid if they upset Gonzaga and St. Mary's, who are both locks.
Pitt, Providence,NC State are more locks then PSU and Rutgers. OK state isn’t a lock either. Not sure what you’re reading or smoking but woof.
Had to look it up. Nice word.
- Status