20-13
Bracketology
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20-13
IlliniInOK
- no longer in OK! Centralia, IL
I think he meant in the eyes of the committee, since the McKendree win doesn't count for our resumé
I think 21 wins (counting McKendree) is the magic number. Whether that means finishing 9-9 and winning two in the tourney or finishing 8-10 and winning three, I think that in this weirdest of all years either scenario would likely get us in. Key word is would: I do not expect this to happen in the slightest.
If we win the next two games I will start making a batch of koolaid to pass around....
If we win the next two games I will start making a batch of koolaid to pass around....
Agreed. This should be sidelined for 2 games.
A good site for tracking the bubble in addition to the bracket matrix is the Dance Card. Shows what team's chances would be using historic data and how near/far they are from the bubble.
The best part of that Dance Card site? Indiana with a worse resume than ours. Always warms my heart to see us above them no matter the spot or sport.
The worst part of that Dance Card site? Besides missing the tourney, obviously, is Penn State with a better resume than ours. In basketball this should never happen. In fact it may be a more fireable offense than missing the tourney as much as we have.
The worst part of that Dance Card site? Besides missing the tourney, obviously, is Penn State with a better resume than ours. In basketball this should never happen. In fact it may be a more fireable offense than missing the tourney as much as we have.
PostersLastStand
- Wayne County, IL
Please, redirect your comments. You should have put NU. I for one, like the way ISU plays, I'm jealous of them and their coach. A top ten DI defensive team and play with a purpose on offense. Not perfect, but watchable. Unlike our hot mess. No purpose, no clue, no coaching, no wins. When was the last time a team from the State of Illinois made the NCAAs.
PostersLastStand
- Wayne County, IL
Growing up I could always count on the Illini to make the tourney and occasionally Bradley, Illinois State, Depaul, SIU, Murray State or University of Evansville. I always had some in State or near to follow in the NCAAs. Now, I mostly don't watch. I'm tired of the Dukies, Tar Squeals, UK/KU and the rest of the NCAA violators/ESPN darlings. I do, however, like Villanova. So I really, really want to watch a team from the State of Illinois in the NCAAs, preferably the Illini. Otherwise, I have to watch NCIS reruns with my wife and daughter, eat good food and set quietly. Please hurry Josh Whitman, Please hurry.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
At the same time if ISU keeps winning they'll be in anyway, so it might not matter. I'll cheer against Wichita State instead.
Thanks for sharing, but I'm a little confused. Is this list showing who would make it right now if the season was over? Or who will make it based on the results so far? Or who will make it using probabilities of how the season will finish?
Great site and a far more accurate picture of what Committee looks at than some other sites
It gives you the probability of making it, using historical data. So given your resume today, that is the probability of making it, based on teams with similar resumes in the past.
I assume the 95% success rate is on the last day, right before selection. My question is whether one needs such formula though. Other than 1-2 teams every year, if someone follows closely college basketball over the years, they can come pretty close to that 95% if not better.
ChampaignLou
- Chicago
Chances
Illinois could get in by winning 2 out of next 3 and making it to the championship game of the BTT. They would be 21-14, 11-11 in conference. This is still a slim chance, as there are 6 Big Ten teams that I consider already in. Putting a seventh for this year's mediocre conference is a stretch.
The only realistic means is to win the BTT.
So I should probably get my good-byes in to Groce now.
Illinois could get in by winning 2 out of next 3 and making it to the championship game of the BTT. They would be 21-14, 11-11 in conference. This is still a slim chance, as there are 6 Big Ten teams that I consider already in. Putting a seventh for this year's mediocre conference is a stretch.
The only realistic means is to win the BTT.
So I should probably get my good-byes in to Groce now.
Michigan and MSU are both in at the moment.
I don't see how we can make it personally.
1. We need to win out. OTOH, I don't think it's unreasonable that we claw back to 9-9.
2. We haven't been consistent. Again, we're playing better, so it's still conceivable.
3. We won't beat Purdue or Wiscy in the BTT, so if we draw them, we're toast. It would take their worst and our best to have a chance. Don't see it happening. At 9-9, I'm not sure who'd we'd pair up with, but it's possible we get a winnable game before hitting one of those two.
4. So I'm saying there's a chance? Yes. I think we have a tiny chance of still getting an at-large.
1. We need to win out. OTOH, I don't think it's unreasonable that we claw back to 9-9.
2. We haven't been consistent. Again, we're playing better, so it's still conceivable.
3. We won't beat Purdue or Wiscy in the BTT, so if we draw them, we're toast. It would take their worst and our best to have a chance. Don't see it happening. At 9-9, I'm not sure who'd we'd pair up with, but it's possible we get a winnable game before hitting one of those two.
4. So I'm saying there's a chance? Yes. I think we have a tiny chance of still getting an at-large.
Let's say the next three games are all 50-50. Some a little higher and some a little lower, but 50-50 on average. Our chance of winning all three equals 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5, or 0.125. So, a 1 in 8 chance of finishing 9-9 and roughly a seven seed. Note that there is no chance of playing Purdue, Wisconsin or Maryland on Thursday. They will all be in the top four with a Thursday bye. If we win the next three then we'll be paired against a lower seed on Thursday. Call it 50-50 again and it is 0.125 x 0.5, or 0.0625. That is 1 in 16.
Those are not good odds, but I'll take 'em. Our only chance of getting NW or Minny in the next game is if one of them was a four seed and we were a five seed, and it is hard to see any tiebreak getting us to the fifth spot even if we tie for it.
If we got there with an eight seed, our next game would be against the one seed, and that is likely Purdue, since they win the head to head tiebreak with Wisconsin. If we get there with a six or seven seed, we get either Wisconsin or Maryland.
So, a 1 in 16 chance we get to Friday, at which point we play one of the top three. Our best chance is against Maryland, in my humble if uninformed opinion. If we call that chance 1 in 3, then our chance of getting to Saturday is 1 in 48. The odds get worse if we get Wisconsin or Purdue.
50-1 odds we play on Saturday with a 9-9 league record. If we do all of those things, I think we dance. If we lose any of the next three, I think we need to at least play on Sunday to dance, and we probably need to win that one, too. The odds on that?
Bad.
Yeah, it's a nice distraction from the coaching search discussion.
Here's a simulator for BTT seeding.
Crazy to see how much a single game or two can swing a team by 3 or 4 rankings. Also, theres still a possibility UI could be the 4th seed. Just saying
Crazy to see how much a single game or two can swing a team by 3 or 4 rankings. Also, theres still a possibility UI could be the 4th seed. Just saying
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Our slogan should be:
Fighting Illini Basketball
Fighting Illini Basketball
"Don't get your hopes up."
Here's a simulator for BTT seeding.
Crazy to see how much a single game or two can swing a team by 3 or 4 rankings. Also, theres still a possibility UI could be the 4th seed. Just saying
Wow. Just wow. I was sure a 4 seed was impossible, but it does not take that big of a stretch to get there, once you make the stretch of calling us a 9-9 team. If no one is 10-8, and if we tie Northwestern and Michigan at 9-9, and all others are worse than 9-9, then we win the round robin tiebreak with those other two teams with a 3-1 record.
Caveat is I would rather have more games to play in the BTT if we were already in that position. I'd rather be playing 4 games in the bottom half of the bracket, and have PU/WI as the 1/4 Seed on the opposite side, if that were possible.
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