mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
UNF DanceCard now has us 100% in if today were Selection Sunday.
Bracketology
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Dance card update:
41 - Illinois (up to 100% chance of selection if today was selection sunday based on resume and historical data)
42 - Seton Hall
43- Wake
44 - Wichita St
45 - Marquette
46 - Vanderbilt
47 - Rhode Island
bubble burst
Now this currently assume the leaders win every conference tournament.
I think if we beat Rutgers and win 1 in the BTT we have a pretty good chance.
41 - Illinois (up to 100% chance of selection if today was selection sunday based on resume and historical data)
42 - Seton Hall
43- Wake
44 - Wichita St
45 - Marquette
46 - Vanderbilt
47 - Rhode Island
bubble burst
Now this currently assume the leaders win every conference tournament.
I think if we beat Rutgers and win 1 in the BTT we have a pretty good chance.
FightingIllini09
- Belleville, IL
Vanderbilt has no chance - 14 losses already. They'd have to beat Kentucky & Florida in the conference tournament to be in IMO.
What do you mean? They are already scheduled...
First/Second Buffalo March 16&18
First/Second Milwaukee March 16&18
First/Second Orlando March 16&18
First/Second Salt Lake City March 16&18
First/Second Greenville March 17&19
First/Second Indianapolis March 17&19
First/Second Tulsa March 17&19
First/Second Sacramento March 17&19
As far as specific teams, they get placed in closest location in accordance with order. So for instance if Indiana was the the best 12th seed, they'd get to play in Indy.
They try and keep protected seeds close to home, so we're not going to get that benefit and thus could end up anywhere.
Dance Card is only one data point, there are a bunch of others that don't have us in right now. And you never really know until the committee decides what they think are the differentiating criteria. I think we still need 2 mores wins minimum, would feel much better with 3.
Illinell
'03 IMPE All Star
- Bridgeport, Chicago
Between Indy and Wisconsin, we at least have a shot at a favorable location for first round.
Cheez
- Sun Prairie WI
They looked like a tournament team....and that makes me happy......happy, not satisfied. Illinois was incredibly competitive. Their defensive transformation has been amazing. They looked as if they could win the whole BTT last night. But as Groce says, every game day is a new game day. Please, please please don't make Rutgers "trap game" become truth.
For those of you that like to compare the Illini vs. Other Bubble Teams this gives a side by side RPI comparison and allows you to pick any two teams!
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison
It is pretty accurate but has had a few struggles the past two years:
2016: 32 of 36 at large bids
2015: 33 of 36
2014: 35 of 36
2013: 37 of 37
If you look at this year rankings by dance card, the falloff at the bubble is very steep. In past years, there have been teams with a historical success rate based on a teams resume of over 90% that been below the bubble line (and went on to miss the tournament). This does suggest that the bubble is especially week this year compared to the last 4 years.
With the way this team has come together they could truly compete with anyone in the B1G. Even Purdue.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Actually, unless they changed things, the top 4 teams in each bracket get preferred placement. If IU was a 12 seed, they would get shipped far from Indy to avoid a homecourt advantage against the 5th and 4th seeds.
Looking at these teams, I would definitely put Illinois in over Cal.
Regarding the on the fence teams, maybe the only one who could get in over us is Arkansas? Their record looks way better on paper, but they have one less T100 win than us, and they also have one loss outside the T100; we have none. They do have 8 wins 101-200. I wonder if the committee takes this into consideration or appreciates that we just have a really tough schedule.
Replacing it with a win over say....Chicago St doesn't affect us at all and would slightly lower our SOS/RPI. So no impact, IMO.
Yes, the top 4 teams get geographic placement (if possible) based on overall seeds. Meaning that the #1 team gets its choice of where to play, even if the #2 team in the country is 15 miles away and want the same location. It's the reason why the West usually has the #4 and #8 teams as their 1/2 when common practice would be having the #4 and #5 teams bracketed together.
After the first 16 are placed, committee tries to put teams close if possible, but there's a lot of bracketing rules that generally prevent it. They try to avoid repeat first round matchup games, teams can't play a conference opponent until Elite 8 unless there are more than 8 conference teams, etc. They are even allowed to move teams up or down 1 seed to help with bracketing rules.
I am DEFINITELY in the camp that we need 3 more wins. Anything less and I think we're a #1 seed in the NIT due to a lack of quality wins (high quality) that the committee has looked for in the past. I'm happy the dance card and other sites are really high on us right now, but the thinking that the tournament only has high level competition helps those kinds of wins.
I'm glad I'm not on the selection committee this year. It's going to be a tough bubble to wade through.
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Illinifanatic4ever
- Orange & Blue Blood in my Veins
I think we are so close. I put in the teams that are supposedly around us on the bubble. We are better in most cases either SOS or record or RPI. Beat Rutgers and one BTT game I think unless a lot of conferences have their top teams lose we will get in. First things first take care of our own business!!!
Deleted member 4723
D
Guest
If Sparty loses to Maryland and loses in first round of BTT, do they get in with 18-14 record over us if we beat Rutgers and win one game in BTT? I don't think so. We'd be 20-13 worst case and our RPI and record against top 100 stacks up favorably with MSU.
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Lunardi now has us in his Next Four Out, which is an improvement, especially considering I can never remember Lunardi giving us much love.
I would like to see 18 in the win column right now though.
It is a very tough task. There have only been 11 teams with 14 losses to ever receive an at-large bid to the tourney. Linked here with profiles on each team:
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-basketball-teams-make-ncaa-tournament-double
Most had extenuating circumstances. Interesting that MSU's AD heads the selection committee this year....of all years.
I did the same thing, comparing resumes with the teams listed below us on the Dance Card website, since many of these are last 4 in / first four out on many lists where we have not crept up yet. I think Georgia and K State are both similar to/as good as us. Syracuse has some great wins but s-3 very bad losses as well, and they stink away from home. I dont understand why in anyone's right mind Cal is a tournament team. They beat USC. Thats it. Awful. many of these teams rely on 12-15 wins from sub100 teams. only 6 of ours are in this class, though 5 are sub 200.
I think some on this board are grossly overrating the idea of a "marquee win." It's really more of a talking point for pundits to denote something really flashy on a resume to illustrate how hot a team can play. Illinois State's in talks and their only "marquee win" is Wichita State (41 rpi) and they've let alone only played 5 top 100 opponents going 2-3 whereas we are 11-12 vs the top 100.
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