Thanks for the info.
In that case, I wonder if the big ten is viewed as an 8 bid league this year. If not it may come down to 2 bids between NW, Michigan, and us. Playing either one in the BTT may mean winner gets the bid.
Bracketology
- Status
Thanks for the info.
In that case, I wonder if the big ten is viewed as an 8 bid league this year. If not it may come down to 2 bids between NW, Michigan, and us. Playing either one in the BTT may mean winner gets the bid.
Only saw the last few minutes so can't comment on the whole game, but Michigan looked terrible their last 2 possessions. Derrick Walton with a garbage play first, then Irvin taking a low percentage 3 with 7 seconds left. Definitely did not share NWs joy.
Just catching up on the bracket and it looks like the most likely way we'd encounter Michigan or NW is if we beat either the #1 or #2 seed first and hopefully that alone would be enough.
If Iowa wins both their games and Michigan loses theirs we'd play the 8/9 vs Michigan. I could see the winner getting the 7th Big10 bid without needing to upset Purdue. Could that be our easiest route? I don't foresee the Big10 getting only 6 bids.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Had a PM question about the odds only in cases where we're the 7 seed and figured I'd just post the answer out here. Since Purdue is set at the 1 seed, our chance of Purdue as the 2nd opponent is exactly our chance of being the 8-9 seed. That means that all the other odds for 2nd opponents are coming from cases where we get the 7. So, if you divide those odds by the total chance of being a 7 seed, you get the following:
Wisconsin - 91%
Minnesota - 8.5%
Maryland - 0.2% (1 in 500)
MSU - 0.1% (1 in 1000)
Wisconsin - 91%
Minnesota - 8.5%
Maryland - 0.2% (1 in 500)
MSU - 0.1% (1 in 1000)
Bubble teams
Anyone else think we still have to win 3 more to get in?
Anyone else think we still have to win 3 more to get in?
Yep, I'm on that boat as well. I think that we have to beat Rutgers and two teams in the BTT. Honestly, two wins probably deserves it this year but for some reason our sneaky good resume gets no love from those who know better than I.
I think 3 wins you feel confident. Two wins and there is still a chance, but you're biting your nails.
Two probably does it IMO.
Dance Card gives us an 82.14% chance of making the field.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
This was calculated before the Wednesday results. I have to assume beating MSU improved our result. Michigan was at 100.0% and NW at 99.9% at the same time. As I understand it, this site does its math as of the calculation date; that is, it does not take any future games or results into account.
Meanwhile, the 2017 Bracket Matrix (http://bracketmatrix.com/) had us third out of the first four prior to last night's games. We made 19 out of 124 brackets as either an 11 or a 12 seed.
I am guessing that both of these numbers will be updated within an hour or so of my writing this.
Count me in the school of thinking two more wins gets us in. I think NU and Michigan are both already locks, and that Michigan remains a lock even if we beat them in the 8-9 game next Thursday afternoon.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
This was calculated before the Wednesday results. I have to assume beating MSU improved our result. Michigan was at 100.0% and NW at 99.9% at the same time. As I understand it, this site does its math as of the calculation date; that is, it does not take any future games or results into account.
Meanwhile, the 2017 Bracket Matrix (http://bracketmatrix.com/) had us third out of the first four prior to last night's games. We made 19 out of 124 brackets as either an 11 or a 12 seed.
I am guessing that both of these numbers will be updated within an hour or so of my writing this.
Count me in the school of thinking two more wins gets us in. I think NU and Michigan are both already locks, and that Michigan remains a lock even if we beat them in the 8-9 game next Thursday afternoon.
Chris Yates
Recruiting Correspondent
- Michigan
Michigan State AD Mark Hollis is the selection committee chair.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...-tournament-selection-committee-chairman-2017
Anyone who thinks our win last night didn't move the needle is on crack.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...-tournament-selection-committee-chairman-2017
Anyone who thinks our win last night didn't move the needle is on crack.
illynifan34
That's a winner!!
- OH
I would guess you're right. If I was getting paid to do this I would have some other model I use to try and replicate the committeee of people.
Conference record is irrelevant. The committee stresses that they look at the "total body of work" you will hear that line a lot in the next couple of weeks.
Would definitely feel great next Sunday if we win 3 more.
Great sites. I'm starting to think if we win at Rutgers we are in. But adding another 1-2 just makes it more compelling. There are about 18 automatic teams that will make the NCAA that wouldn't have made it otherwise. So basically we need to be in the top 50 RPI. But best we are closer to a 40 RPI.
3/2 Bubble Games (not many):
Houston @ Cincinnati
FL International @ Middle Tenn
California @ Utah
Houston @ Cincinnati
FL International @ Middle Tenn
California @ Utah
haasi
- New York
I just checked in on NC State. Holy cow. 1-9 since late January after their win at Duke. They fell off a cliff. Currently only a bit out of the top 100, so it's possible with a little run in the ACC tourney they climb back in, but sure doesn't look like they're primed to do that.
Deleted member 236589
D
Guest
Well, when you put it that way.
Dang statistics always making logical sense...
If VCU is that high.....You're right, it's really hard to argue those numbers.
haasi
- New York
Having looked at some of our competition on the bubble, I think our one major negative is lack of a single really impressive win. You look at teams like Marquette - fairly equivalent resume ours - major differences are 1 bad loss and 1 win over #1 Villanova. Other teams don't have a win quite that good, but a lot have big time wins that we just don't have. Providence beat Butler and some other higher end teams. Vanderbilt beat Florida. Our overall record is right there with all these teams - and our lack of a bad loss is unusual - most have 1 or 2. Our number of top 50 and 100 wins is fine/good. It's just that we don't have that premier win. Lunardi has all these guys ahead of us. We'll see how things shift. But I do think we have to hope that these other bubble teams start losing because beating Rutgers and winning 1 in the BTT may not be enough to get us past them.
haasi
- New York
Penn State and Iowa are interesting for our resume. They're both in the 90s on RPI. They play each other on Sunday. RPIwizard.com shows a projected RPI for Penn State of 102 if they lose. Iowa plays Wisconsin first. If they lose at Wisconsin and then again to PSU, projected RPI 105. So assuming Iowa loses to Wisconsin, either Penn State or Iowa will probably drop from top 100. That would either remove two top 100 wins from us (Iowa) or give us 2 bad losses (PSU). We'd definitely rather lose the top 100 wins than get 2 bad losses, so we'd be rooting for Penn State on Sunday. But in the meantime we should hope Iowa pulls off a miracle at Wisconsin tonight (8pm ESPN) to make sure those two remain top 100 wins regardless.
Probably a little 'feel good story' bias towards NW. During the game last night, they put Illinois' resume up next to Wake Forest's resume. They look very identical, yet Wake Forest is in, and we are still out.
Unfortunately, Wake picked up a signature win last night over Louisville that definitely puts them in ahead of us.
I remember seeing that graphic. Wake was 1-9 against the top 50 before last nights win. Maybe I'm biased but I would take us over them based off that snapshot
AND AFTER ALL THAT, Palm now has us as his last team in (replacing TCU). Guess he re-evaluated his position after that BTN interview....
ACC bias most likely. Is Dickie V on the selection committee? Lol
- Status