Bracketology
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Deleted member 236589
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Northwestern has wins over Dayton and Wisconsin. We don't have two wins that sniff those. That was his point.
illynifan34
That's a winner!!
- OH
We have 1 though over VCU, is that one win making up for the 40 point difference in SOS?
Yeah it seems like Palm is ignoring that one.
Officially none, but the committee is human and it can't hurt to be viewed as a "hot" team.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like many of the teams ahead of us on the bubble lost today. A handful of losses to teams projected as 8/9 seeds, but I don't see how that helps us this late in the season.
Wake even picked up a big signature win against Louisville.
Wake even picked up a big signature win against Louisville.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Nice. I'm not sure there are many real benefits to looking at these BTT odds, but one seems to be finding fringe possibilities that one might miss with a manual search.
Deleted member 236589
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I understand what you're saying about the SOS, however, given the teams that have made up our schedule, who have we beaten that's going to be a top 8 seed in the tournament?
We lost to Purdue and Maryland by very large margins. Wisconsin and Minnesota came here and handled us.
You're currently saying the best win of our season is VCU.....The second place team in the A-10 and we have no wins against the top tier teams in our league. That's a problem. That's THE problem.
Northwestern can claim a win over Wisconsin. Wake Forest beat Louisville tonight. We could really use one of those high quality wins to finish off the resume. It's definitely missing.
Selection Sunday pundits remind me of law school classmates - you have the make yourself sound smart and develop these differentiating policies that determine the outcome. The fact of the matter is most hardcore fans can predict the tourney participants with 97% accuracy. Also, signature wins help, but I believe the tourney committee values quantity of quality even more. The fact of the matter is most teams only have about 6-8 chances for these "signature wins" per season. It wouldn't make sense to heavily weight that when the overarching policy of the tourney committee is to assess the entire body of work. Therefore I believe having numerous wins against other tourney teams carries more value bc the overall goal is to fill the tournament with teams that will be competitive and can win any given Thurs-Sun.
Margin of win/loss is not taken into account.
illynifan34
That's a winner!!
- OH
If you look at RPI and I know Palm uses it as does the committee, VCU is higher than Wisconsin and right there behind Dayton. Where those teams rank in their conferences is irrelevant. I'm more arguing that Northwestern isn't as solidly in as he said if we aren't in the conversation.
Forget Palm. Doesn't matter right now. I'm more pissed we had bad luck against other bubble games today. Nothing helpful...
Not much helpful. However, many of the teams in our RPI vicinity have very difficult games coming up. Hopefully a bunch get picked off
Per RPI:
dayton is 21
VCU is 23
Wisky is 33
Plus we have 5 top 50 wins vs 3 for NW
Is the quality of the dayton win really offsetting a bettter by a mile SOS and more top 50 wins for us vs them (not to mention sweeping their arse)?
And is it offsetting so much that they are a 8-9 and we are out? That would make so little sense
illynifan34
That's a winner!!
- OH
Northwestern:
RPI: 50
SOS: 80
Top 50 RPI wins: 22, 31, 45, 46
Illinois
RPI: 56
SOS: 15
Top 50 RPI wins: 23, 46, 40, 50, 50
How is one team a lock and the other not in the conversation?
RPI: 50
SOS: 80
Top 50 RPI wins: 22, 31, 45, 46
Illinois
RPI: 56
SOS: 15
Top 50 RPI wins: 23, 46, 40, 50, 50
How is one team a lock and the other not in the conversation?
this is one way to strongly prove a point....:thumb:
the national
- the Front Range
. That's what I was thinking heading into today's games but everyone won. I guess TCU is officially burst.
I wonder if it will come down to the Big10 not being perceived as an 8 bid league this year with our relatively low confernce RPI. With Northwestern's win that's 6 teams that are basically a lock. That leaves us and Michigan fighting for bids 7 and 8. Michigan is obviously in a great spot unless they lose out in which case their RPI is projected to be the same as ours going into the BTT.
The only answer is that these guys are using other rankings like ESPN's BPI where NW is 43 and we are 61. Or Pomeroy where it's 36/64.
Wow. It took me a while to figure out how you even get there using http://bball.notnothing.net/b10bracket.php
You'd need this exact outcome:
Nebraska beats Minnesota @ Minnesota
Iowa beats Wisconsin @ Wisconsin
Illinois beats Rutgers @ Rutgers
Penn St. beats Iowa @ Iowa
MSU beats Maryland @ Maryland
Minnesota beats Wisconsin @ Wisconsin
[NW / Purdue, Ohio St. / Indiana, and Nebraska / Michigan don't matter]
4000 to 1 seems low. That ain't happening.
Does conference standing factor in the committee decision? NW will finish 3rd-6th, while we'll finish 7th-11th. I wonder what the precedent is. How often has a team ahead in the conference standings missed out on a bid in favor of a lower team in the standings? And what was their difference in the standings?
BillyBob1
- Champaign
I thought they went to entire schedule vs conference finish.
No, they don't use conference standing. You can't use that because as conferences have gotten larger, that means unbalanced schedules so that one team may have benefited from an easier conference schedule.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
That's 4000 to 1 only in scenarios where Illinois wins. But it's still 6 games that need to break the right way; you actually left out that Nebraska needs to beat UM to get us to the 7 seed.
"4000 to 1" is essentially synonymous with "ain't happening," as far as once-a-year type scenarios go. If you'd been born in the year 0 AD and had a 4000-to-1 scenario play out once a year, more likely than not you'd still be waiting for the "1" scenario to happen for the first time. Regardless, the number does work out:
Nebraska beats Minnesota @ Minnesota --- 1 in 6
Iowa beats Wisconsin @ Wisconsin --- 1 in 7
Illinois beats Rutgers @ Rutgers --- taken as an IL win
Penn St. beats Iowa @ Iowa --- 1 in 3
MSU beats Maryland @ Maryland --- 1 in 3
Minnesota beats Wisconsin @ Wisconsin --- 1 in 4
Nebraska beats UM at home --- 1 in 3
6 x 7 x 3 x 3 x 4 x 3 = 1 in around 4500.
My favorite of the 4 scenarios that fit that is one with IU and NW wins to round it out. The final standings have a 5-way tie for 2nd at 11-7, 3-way tie for 7th at 9-9, and 3-way tie for 11th at 7-11. Only 3 teams (Purdue, Nebraska, and Rutgers) finish alone in the standings.
As much as I would love beating NW for a 3rd time, it won't be them...as they will fall into 9th place after losing their next 2 games. So I would say buckeyes.
MN is the hottest team in the BT right now.....so definitely want to stay away from them in round 2. (Even though RP Jr. is a total putz!)
So...I obviously SUCK as a prognosticator. :doh: :doh:
How does a hot Michigan team go into Evanston and pee their pants??
And what was Beilein thinking on that last play?? :frustrated:
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