Bracketology

JIllini · Mar 1, 2017

joekam said:
Or not getting swept by Penn St...

Or Winthrop. The list goes on...

Let's just win some games and forget those losses ever happened please.

Cheez · Mar 1, 2017

JIllini said:
Or Winthrop. The list goes on...

Let's just win some games and forget those losses ever happened please.

A win tomorrow night will go a long way in helping forget about those losses

illiniguy24 · Mar 1, 2017

5 years ago today I posted a Facebook status saying, "Puck Furdue."

It's officially March people. May the odds be ever in our favor.

For once.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

whovous · Mar 1, 2017

ski300 said:
True but that would improve with a win against Michigan. Look I get the committee will look harder than a hard cut line like top 50. But everyone has to remember one of the reasons we are in the at-large consideration at all is the sweep of NW. If they collapses down the stretch, one of the side effects is to weaken those wins and our resume. All of these things are so interconnected that it gets complicated. All you can really hope for is 4 more Illini wins before selection Sunday regardless of who they play. They do that you feel pretty good, if not they will need a lot of help.

Which is why you have to root for Michigan against NW. That gives us our best shot at a seven seed, which gives us our best shot at a second BTT win.

Whitman2020 · Mar 1, 2017

whovous said:
Which is why you have to root for Michigan against NW. That gives us our best shot at a seven seed, which gives us our best shot at a second BTT win.

And knocking out NW likely opens up a bubble spot.

As if I needed 2 more reasons to root against them.

Illinifanatic4ever · Mar 1, 2017

Maybe Mike Wilboun should have kept his mouth shut with what he said before our game last Tuesday. Might come back to haunt him!!!

UrbanaIsTheShiz · Mar 1, 2017

I dont get love for Rhode Island. They have a 19-9 record, best wins are VCU last week, and Cincy 4 months ago. They have two awful losses at home against Fordham and LaSalle. To me the comparison with us is not close.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Mar 1, 2017

UrbanaIsTheShiz said:
I dont get love for Rhode Island. They have a 19-9 record, best wins are VCU last week, and Cincy 4 months ago. They have two awful losses at home against Fordham and LaSalle. To me the comparison with us is not close.

I agree. It depends on what the committee values, it seems to me that in recent years they tend to value really good wins and be more forgiving on bad losses. But that's just a hunch.

I do wonder about a team like RI when 15 of their 19 wins are over 100+ RPI teams.

Chief64 · Mar 1, 2017

Yearly reminder that Lunardi really is only accurate with his final bracket that he releases after all games are done. Dance Card has been my go to the last few years and it's been money with its daily updates.

ejam21 · Mar 1, 2017

UrbanaIsTheShiz said:
I dont get love for Rhode Island. They have a 19-9 record, best wins are VCU last week, and Cincy 4 months ago. They have two awful losses at home against Fordham and LaSalle. To me the comparison with us is not close.

Agreed

They have us in top 25 wins: RI 2 vs IL 1
We have them in top 50: IL 4 to RI 2
We hvae them in top 100: IL 9 to RI 4
We have them beat in bad losses: Us 0, them 2 (one of which was to a team at 199 in RPI)

They have us in RPI: RI 44 IL 56
We have them on SOS by a wide margin: IL 17, RI 55

They have us in R/N record: 7-6 vs our 6-7, but ALL 6 of RI's road wins are against teams that would be bad losses (100+RPI), where as we have 3 top 100 Road wins and 1 top 50

Our resume is better than theirs unless you put more emphasis on total wins while downplaying SOS impact. JMO

haasi · Mar 1, 2017

Dancecard now has us at 82% likely to make tournament if chosen today. Seems crazy to me, but I guess it's moot because field isn't being chosen today and we have a game against MSU tonight. Huge game. If we win, assume we'll be firmly on the bubble across most/all bracketologists, and maybe even on the right side of things for now.

UofIChE06 · Mar 1, 2017

haasi said:
Dancecard now has us at 82% likely to make tournament if chosen today. Seems crazy to me, but I guess it's moot because field isn't being chosen today and we have a game against MSU tonight. Huge game. If we win, assume we'll be firmly on the bubble across most/all bracketologists, and maybe even on the right side of things for now.

I think UI will be in 80-90 of the 123 bracket matrix brackets should they win tonight. I think they will also be close to 100% on dance card as well. Barring a collapse against Rutgers they should go into the BTT in decent shape.

Cheez · Mar 1, 2017

The way everyone on the bubble is collapsing - if Illinois wins their next 3 I'd feel good about their chances.

Whitman2020 · Mar 1, 2017

Cheez said:
The way everyone on the bubble is collapsing - if Illinois wins their next 3 I'd feel good about their chances.

If they win 3 I look at that as in. It's the immediate OUT of the BTT that would make it interesting.

IlliniFan12 · Mar 1, 2017

What if we lose tonight but get 2-3 Ws in BTT?

FeelYourPaign · Mar 1, 2017

IlliniFan12 said:
What if we lose tonight but get 2-3 Ws in BTT?

Stop looking ahead

Sort of kidding about that, but sort of serious. I just can't think past tonight.

whovous · Mar 1, 2017

Whitman2020 said:
If they win 3 I look at that as in. It's the immediate OUT of the BTT that would make it interesting.

OK, let's say we've won two. Who do you want to play and who do you want to avoid in the Thursday round of the BTT? If we win two we can be no higher than 7th and I cannot find a way for us to be lower than ninth. Possible opponents include:

Michigan
Northwestern
Iowa
Ohio State
Nebraska

Who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

If we win the first round as an eight or nine seed, we will play Purdue on Friday afternoon. If we win as a seven seed, we get the second place team. Possibilities include:

Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota

Again, who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

Whitman2020 · Mar 1, 2017

whovous said:
OK, let's say we've won two. Who do you want to play and who do you want to avoid in the Thursday round of the BTT? If we win two we can be no higher than 7th and I cannot find a way for us to be lower than ninth. Possible opponents include:

Michigan
Northwestern
Iowa
Ohio State
Nebraska

Who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

If we win the first round as an eight or nine seed, we will play Purdue on Friday afternoon. If we win as a seven seed, we get the second place team. Possibilities include:

Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota

Again, who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

1st level:
Most: OSU / Nebby
Least: MI

2nd level:
Most: Minny
Least: Wisc

Berg88 · Mar 1, 2017

whovous said:
OK, let's say we've won two. Who do you want to play and who do you want to avoid in the Thursday round of the BTT? If we win two we can be no higher than 7th and I cannot find a way for us to be lower than ninth. Possible opponents include:

Michigan
Northwestern
Iowa
Ohio State
Nebraska

Who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

If we win the first round as an eight or nine seed, we will play Purdue on Friday afternoon. If we win as a seven seed, we get the second place team. Possibilities include:

Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota

Again, who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

I want to not play Michigan on Thursday, that much I know for sure. If NW continues to struggle, maybe they are the choice? Maybe OSU otherwise? It's a real crap shoot.

Friday right now I think I'd take Wisconsin. None of them are appealing though.

Ransom Stoddard · Mar 1, 2017

Berg88 said:
I want to not play Michigan on Thursday, that much I know for sure. If NW continues to struggle, maybe they are the choice? Maybe OSU otherwise? It's a real crap shoot.

Friday right now I think I'd take Wisconsin. None of them are appealing though.

That just about sums up our season.

whovous · Mar 1, 2017

Berg88 said:
I want to not play Michigan on Thursday, that much I know for sure. If NW continues to struggle, maybe they are the choice? Maybe OSU otherwise? It's a real crap shoot.

Friday right now I think I'd take Wisconsin. None of them are appealing though.

We can only play Michigan as part of an 8-9 matchup, and Michigan has to lose out to get an 8 or 9 seed. Does that change anything for you?

PlayAZ · Mar 1, 2017

whovous said:
OK, let's say we've won two. Who do you want to play and who do you want to avoid in the Thursday round of the BTT? If we win two we can be no higher than 7th and I cannot find a way for us to be lower than ninth. Possible opponents include:

Michigan
Northwestern
Iowa
Ohio State
Nebraska

Who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

If we win the first round as an eight or nine seed, we will play Purdue on Friday afternoon. If we win as a seven seed, we get the second place team. Possibilities include:

Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota

Again, who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

Nebraska or Ohio State the most-matchup wise...Michigan the least they are the hottest now.

Then I think I would rather have Minnesota

Dike Eddleman · Mar 1, 2017

whovous said:
OK, let's say we've won two. Who do you want to play and who do you want to avoid in the Thursday round of the BTT? If we win two we can be no higher than 7th and I cannot find a way for us to be lower than ninth. Possible opponents include:

Michigan
Northwestern
Iowa
Ohio State
Nebraska

Who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

If we win the first round as an eight or nine seed, we will play Purdue on Friday afternoon. If we win as a seven seed, we get the second place team. Possibilities include:

Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota

Again, who do you want the most and who do you want the least?

As much as I would love beating NW for a 3rd time, it won't be them...as they will fall into 9th place after losing their next 2 games. So I would say buckeyes.

MN is the hottest team in the BT right now.....so definitely want to stay away from them in round 2. (Even though RP Jr. is a total putz!)

:chief:

whovous · Mar 1, 2017

Dike Eddleman said:
As much as I would love beating NW for a 3rd time, it won't be them...as they will fall into 9th place after losing their next 2 games. So I would say buckeyes.

MN is the hottest team in the BT right now.....so definitely want to stay away from them in round 2. (Even though RP Jr. is a total putz!)

If Iowa wins out, they get the seven seed, Illinois the eight, and NW the nine. That requires Iowa to beat both Wisconsin in Madison and Penn State at home.

Berg88 · Mar 1, 2017

whovous said:
We can only play Michigan as part of an 8-9 matchup, and Michigan has to lose out to get an 8 or 9 seed. Does that change anything for you?

That might help, but then they might be playing for their NCAA tournament bid as well. It's really a complete mess in the middle of the conference right now.

Bracketology

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