This is a no-brainer: MSU
We beat them on Senior Night and we WILL finish with 19 wins and 7th in the Big Ten. Our 20th win would come in game 1 of the tourney.
Then we are in as the 7th conference team.
Bracketology
- Status
This is a no-brainer: MSU
We beat them on Senior Night and we WILL finish with 19 wins and 7th in the Big Ten. Our 20th win would come in game 1 of the tourney.
Then we are in as the 7th conference team.
BirdDog9048
The Chief Lives
- Chicago, IL
Beating a team for a third time is no harder than beating them the first time or the second time. They are more or less isolated events.
Fixed it for ya! :typing:
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
That's easy for me. Have to win the first one for the second one to matter
Lou Henson and the Flying Illini disagree.
Ha, my reaction too. While it's not provable, I think anecdotally a team you've beaten twice is going to want revenge even more, while a team that's beaten someone twice is more likely to be complacent. Might not apply as much if the teams are otherwise far apart in talent/performance, but I do believe it has an effect.
This is a no-brainer: MSU
We beat them on Senior Night and we WILL finish with 19 wins and 7th in the Big Ten. Our 20th win would come in game 1 of the tourney.
Then we are in as the 7th conference team.
Agree with all this.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
A lot of folks are still counting the McKendree game as something that matters to the selection committee. As far as NCAA selection is concerned our best possible regular season record is 18-12.
It's a rant for another day, but we should never have those D2 schools on the schedule. There's no upside.
It's a rant for another day, but we should never have those D2 schools on the schedule. There's no upside.
Wouldn't it affect both our RPI and SOS...but just not give us a new top X win?
Probably not a big jump in either i guess though.
Illini1221
Peru,IL
Playing a team like Prarie View A&M would have hurt our biggest asset, our strength of schedule.
Had we played our usual punching bag, Chicago St instead, our RPI would be 60 and SOS 33 instead of 57/17. So not a huge benefit, but it is there.
Sure, having opponents win games always helps, but it's not all that important when looking at just one team.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Going out on a limb there....sorry, I think that is pretty self-evident. Assuming that we are as close as it appears now, and our competition seems to be falling by the wayside, this trend is our friend.
We are all-in on the Spartans game. Wow...not easy to beat an Izzo team. I did not think we would have this type of excitement this late in the year. So much more fun. However, this is the type of game that we lose by 20. Don't put this game on any ESPN network!
More on what I've been mentioning, the bubble is full of high majors this year.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
....When the opponent's HC has been fired and their star player is on fire.
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The Dave
- CA
The site clearly states that it bases it's projections on TODAY being Selection Sunday. It's not hiding the fact that it doesn't take future games in to account.
Deleted member 46511
D
Guest
Yes... but this scenario doesn't have us winning out, (Beating MSU) and/or Mich beating NW.
Because if all things happen as they should, in my humble opinion,and we win out... then we will most likely be the 7 seed (Mich beats NW, NW loses final game, Iowa splits)... then we are 7, Iowa/NW are 8/9 in some order, and 10 is either Ohio State or (I'm not looking at the standings.)
This list weighs everything, and thinks something other than what I think, will happen.
Therefore... it is wrong.
You get one game on your schedule that is non-D1 that doesn't affect your metrics. It's a game that doesn't affect your RPI, so in that sense it's better than playing a low-D1 game. In the selection committees eyes, 18-12 and 19-12 would look the same since it's who you beat and lost to. It actually probably saved us a couple RPI and SOS spots.
To get in for sure, yes we need to win 2 BTT games. There is just way too much basketball to be played still to know for sure. Once we actually get to the tournament then it will be much easier to predict how many more wins we need because at that point we will know how many other bubble teams have risen or stumbled.
Bracketologists really just can't say much right now except for the ambiguous "they need good wins and to avoid bad losses". Teams are on the bubble because they've been unpredictable for most of the season.
http://www.btpowerhouse.com/2017/2/...ngs-seeding-bracket-maryland-purdue-wisconsin
With the Bubble projected "soft" this year, the only way I see Illinois missing the tournament after the terrible year we have had, is actually losing to Rutgers and or Northwestern. If we at least keep MSU close or even possibly win (which might happen) coupled with Rutgers/NW wins...that would be 18/19 wins in and 8/9 wins and playing "hot" basketball right now...(committee looks at that as well). Amazing after all the crap all year long.
With the Bubble projected "soft" this year, the only way I see Illinois missing the tournament after the terrible year we have had, is actually losing to Rutgers and or Northwestern. If we at least keep MSU close or even possibly win (which might happen) coupled with Rutgers/NW wins...that would be 18/19 wins in and 8/9 wins and playing "hot" basketball right now...(committee looks at that as well). Amazing after all the crap all year long.
OrangeAndBlues
- Indianapolis
Margin of loss is not a factor the committee looks at.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
The NCAA has conducted a number of "pretend" selection committees where they've invited members of the media to go through the selection process with them. Here's a couple of articles about those, there are many more if you google it:
Behind the scenes
Things the may surprise you
Mock exercise
This is probably too pie in the sky. Bubble is soft every year, and bid stealing conference tournaments have yet to be decided. Committee used to use a last 10 games metric as "hotness", though that's been deprecated (last year?). If we lose to MSU, and Northwestern falls out of the top 50, we will most likely have to beat Purdue and hope. Much more feasible to just win vs MSU and Rutgers and avoid having to win 2 in the BTT.
- Status