Not sure how they operate the site, but I doubt all 113 brackets have been updated to include last weekend's games.
I expect that number to increase over the next couple days.
Bracketology
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Not sure how they operate the site, but I doubt all 113 brackets have been updated to include last weekend's games.
I expect that number to increase over the next couple days.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
You're right about that. They show the bracket's most recent update and I would just eyeball it as half have updated since yesterday, half have not.
UI is on 9 of 50 brackets released today. 1 of 63 prior to today.
I agree the bubble is weak, but there are ZERO marquee wins to our credit. Not saying that we can't get into the tournament, but the committee is looking for those big wins that we simply don't compare to.
The resume between Illinois and Northwestern skews in NU's favor (for now). Those wins @Wisconsin and neutral vs. Dayton are pretty big right now.
The resume between Illinois and Northwestern skews in NU's favor (for now). Those wins @Wisconsin and neutral vs. Dayton are pretty big right now.
That most likely projects us ahead of TCU and probably KSU in the First Four Out group heading into our MSU game.
I'm starting to feel real good about our chances assuming we win out and avoid an upset in the BTT.
NW's win over Dayton is a wash with Illinios's over VCU.
Not that it really matters, NW is not the last one in. They aren't who we care about at this moment. We probably want NW to turn it around and preserve our top 50 wins.
The committee does like marquee wins, but it also really likes good SOS and not losing to horrible teams. Those two are things that go in our favor.
The Illini are doing fairly well on the most recently updated brackets. After clicking on the recently updated ones that don't have us in yet, most of them had the Illini in the first four. The Illini are firmly in the 15-20 teams that straddle the cut line. If they can beat MSU they will enter a lot of brackets.
Quality of losses matter as well
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Here's Illinois' current Big Ten Tourney projection from my season simulator:
SEED
7 - 12%
8 - 24%
9 - 42%
10 - 12%
11 - 6%
12 - 4%
13 - 1%
This is based on KenPom, where our chance of winning out is something like 30%, so we clearly need help to get the 7 seed even if we win out. Specifically, Iowa loses at least once (highly likely) and Northwestern loses out (around 25%)
Chance of seeing team X in the second round (our first game, if we get a single-bye)
Iowa - 45%
Michigan - 17%
PSU - 11%
Northwestern -11%
Neb - 5%
Minny - 3%
OSU - 3%
IU - 2%
MD - 2%
Wisc. - 1-in-700
Chance of having team Y as the double-bye team in our bracket section:
Purdue - 64%
Wisconsin - 21%
MSU - 5%
Minny - 5%
MD - 4%
UM - 1-in-500
NW - 1-in-2000
SEED
7 - 12%
8 - 24%
9 - 42%
10 - 12%
11 - 6%
12 - 4%
13 - 1%
This is based on KenPom, where our chance of winning out is something like 30%, so we clearly need help to get the 7 seed even if we win out. Specifically, Iowa loses at least once (highly likely) and Northwestern loses out (around 25%)
Chance of seeing team X in the second round (our first game, if we get a single-bye)
Iowa - 45%
Michigan - 17%
PSU - 11%
Northwestern -11%
Neb - 5%
Minny - 3%
OSU - 3%
IU - 2%
MD - 2%
Wisc. - 1-in-700
Chance of having team Y as the double-bye team in our bracket section:
Purdue - 64%
Wisconsin - 21%
MSU - 5%
Minny - 5%
MD - 4%
UM - 1-in-500
NW - 1-in-2000
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal
Will it? They were a dumpster fire the last time we played them.
For those using the Dance card site, I would caution anyone who looks at that 95% prediction rate they boast as an indication of how good they are.
Anyone could get most of the bids right simply because so many of the at-large teams have excellent resumes. The bracket matrix will likely miss 1 or none. The closer you are to the spot where the bubble bursts, the less reliable any tool is going to be. So a team 8 spots above the cut-off, you could have pretty good confidence. But 1 slot in would be more like 50-50. This looks like a year where the size of the bubble could be crucial for our chances.
Anyone could get most of the bids right simply because so many of the at-large teams have excellent resumes. The bracket matrix will likely miss 1 or none. The closer you are to the spot where the bubble bursts, the less reliable any tool is going to be. So a team 8 spots above the cut-off, you could have pretty good confidence. But 1 slot in would be more like 50-50. This looks like a year where the size of the bubble could be crucial for our chances.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I went ahead and ran things just for scenarios where we win out. Here's what that looks like (summary: it's more Nebraska-y/tOSU-y and less Michigan-y/Northwestern-y).
SEED
7 - 35%
8 - 57%
9 - 8%
2ND ROUND OPPONENT
Iowa - 48%
Neb. - 16%
PSU - 13%
tOSU - 8%
IU - 6%
UM - 6%
NW - 3%
DOUBLE BYE IN BRACKET SECTION
Purdue - 61%
UW - 33%
Minny - 6%
Maryland/MSU - 1-in-2000 (each)
SEED
7 - 35%
8 - 57%
9 - 8%
2ND ROUND OPPONENT
Iowa - 48%
Neb. - 16%
PSU - 13%
tOSU - 8%
IU - 6%
UM - 6%
NW - 3%
DOUBLE BYE IN BRACKET SECTION
Purdue - 61%
UW - 33%
Minny - 6%
Maryland/MSU - 1-in-2000 (each)
haasi
- New York
we were like #70 on dance card last week with 0% chance of making it. now 44 with a 75% chance of making it? No, not reliable.
I think dance card had closer to 100% record years ago, which led to the idea that it had the secret sauce, but it hasn't been that accurate on the tough calls in past years.
We still need to win. I wouldn't count this as in the bag.
Beating Michigan State is our best chance and I am not sure I would count that as in the bag.
Jkat00
- Champaign, IL
And then beat IU at home and Maryland on the road. Iowa has a talented core of freshman that are hit or miss. Always tough to beat a team 3 times.
GallopingGhost
- Denver, CO
They looked scary against maryland. Seriously scary
Wednesday is basically season defining. In and we are basically in. Unlikely to crap out at Rutgers. Lose Wednesday and zero chance.
robertgoulet
IL Board Resident Crooner
- Austin, TX
Brad Evans on WSCR right now. Said if IL beats MSU and Rutgers and gets 1-2 wins in B1G tourney they should be in.
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Man, move us up one spot and the % jumps up to 99%
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Honestly he's saying beat MSU and maybe Purdue and have no bad losses we're in? That's not really going out on a limb. If we beat MSU on Wednesday (a 50/50 thing at best i'd say), I really don't know if I like the prospects of a must-win 8/9 game with Iowa/NW and maybe needing a Purdue victory to clinch. I don't see that happening at all.
From the site, emphasis mine:
The site isn't attempting to predict based on the rest of the season. This is why Vanderbilt (16-13) is currently at 99.99% although they still have to play at Kentucky and host Florida.
Michigan St -- if we don't win that one, then the important game in the BTT would be the 3rd game...
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