Bracketology

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#576      

teemaddy12

T
MO
teemaddy12
We made ESPN's "Bubble Watch" column today for the first time. Because seeding is always pretty up in the air, this is really the one thing from ESPN I typically read about tournament projections -- it's usually pretty spot on with good analysis. Anyway, here's the Illinois part:

Work Left to Do:
Illinois [17-12 (7-9), RPI: 56, SOS: 12] Hey, sure, why not? Sunday's win at Nebraska wasn't exactly a perception-altering basketball explosion, but it was Illinois' third in a row, and frankly, if Tennessee is on the bubble, the Illini should be too. Now, Illinois doesn't have a win as good as Kentucky, but the Illini have more solid wins than UT (VCU, Michigan and a sweep of Northwestern) with fewer overall losses, no bad losses and equal (if not better) RPI and SOS numbers. The Illini are on the fringe at best at this point, and they probably will be, barring a move deep into the Big Ten tourney. But they're worth noting, anyway.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
 
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#577      

Calvin

C
Calvin
teemaddy12 said:
We made ESPN's "Bubble Watch" column today for the first time. Because seeding is always pretty up in the air, this is really the one thing from ESPN I typically read about tournament projections -- it's usually pretty spot on with good analysis. Anyway, here's the Illinois part:

Work Left to Do:
Illinois [17-12 (7-9), RPI: 56, SOS: 12] Hey, sure, why not? Sunday's win at Nebraska wasn't exactly a perception-altering basketball explosion, but it was Illinois' third in a row, and frankly, if Tennessee is on the bubble, the Illini should be too. Now, Illinois doesn't have a win as good as Kentucky, but the Illini have more solid wins than UT (VCU, Michigan and a sweep of Northwestern) with fewer overall losses, no bad losses and equal (if not better) RPI and SOS numbers. The Illini are on the fringe at best at this point, and they probably will be, barring a move deep into the Big Ten tourney. But they're worth noting, anyway.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Click to expand...

Amazing how where you're coming from affects perception. If you had told me at the beginning of the season that this report would thrill me, I'd think you were insane.
 
#578      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
teemaddy12 said:
We made ESPN's "Bubble Watch" column today for the first time. Because seeding is always pretty up in the air, this is really the one thing from ESPN I typically read about tournament projections -- it's usually pretty spot on with good analysis. Anyway, here's the Illinois part:

Work Left to Do:
Illinois [17-12 (7-9), RPI: 56, SOS: 12] Hey, sure, why not? Sunday's win at Nebraska wasn't exactly a perception-altering basketball explosion, but it was Illinois' third in a row, and frankly, if Tennessee is on the bubble, the Illini should be too. Now, Illinois doesn't have a win as good as Kentucky, but the Illini have more solid wins than UT (VCU, Michigan and a sweep of Northwestern) with fewer overall losses, no bad losses and equal (if not better) RPI and SOS numbers. The Illini are on the fringe at best at this point, and they probably will be, barring a move deep into the Big Ten tourney. But they're worth noting, anyway.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Click to expand...

I think this is the most rational viewpoint on us I've seen in the last few days. The general sentiment is surprise that we're in the mix, but we have a competent, if not exciting, resume.
 
#579      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
TownieMatt said:
I think this is the most rational viewpoint on us I've seen in the last few days. The general sentiment is surprise that we're in the mix, but we have a competent, if not exciting, resume.
Click to expand...

Perfect way to put it. :( Unless my math is terribly off (possible, my brain is fried from work), we'd look something like this if we won out and won one game in the BTT before losing our second:

Record: 20-13 (9-9)
RPI: 50-55? (57 now)
SOS: 17? (probably won't move much)
vs. RPI Top 25: 1-4 (unless our loss in the BTT somehow comes to a top 25 team, then 1-5)
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9 (assuming our BTT win comes against a team not in the top 50 and our loss comes to a team in it)
vs. RPI Top 100: 11-13 (assuming we beat one and lose to one in the BTT)
Neutral Court Record: 4-3

As one writer put it, our resume is "sneaky competent," LOL.
 
#580      

UofIChE06

U
Pittsburgh
UofIChE06
TownieMatt said:
I think this is the most rational viewpoint on us I've seen in the last few days. The general sentiment is surprise that we're in the mix, but we have a competent, if not exciting, resume.
Click to expand...

Brennan is a complete tool. He is an IU alum that has always taken jabs at the Illini any time he gets the chance. Anything he writes will be more negative than it should be towards UI. I like how he wrote the whole preface to the bubble watch about a team that has almost no chance of the tournament outside of winning the BTT. Just has to keep that IU name involved somehow.
 
#581      

Tygor

T
Tygor
No matter what personal opinion on Brennan are, he makes a lot of sense in this piece. I'm still on the side that wining the next 3 is not enough, but that seems like a minority-view on this board. The positive is that we are mentioned, which is a really good change. But there's a long way to go, starting with a really tough game tomorrow night. Two more top 50 wins is probably needed in my mind though.
 
#583      

UofIChE06

U
Pittsburgh
UofIChE06
Tygor said:
No matter what personal opinion on Brennan are, he makes a lot of sense in this piece. I'm still on the side that wining the next 3 is not enough, but that seems like a minority-view on this board. The positive is that we are mentioned, which is a really good change. But there's a long way to go, starting with a really tough game tomorrow night. Two more top 50 wins is probably needed in my mind though.
Click to expand...

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Another day of updates and UI is in 6 more brackets. Currently sitting in the first four out list. A win tomorrow and they almost certainly jump to the other side of the matrix.
 
#584      

The Dave

The Dave
CA
The Dave
Does Strength of Schedule (SoS) only take in to account teams we've played or our entire schedule?
 
#587      

Tygor

T
Tygor
The Dave said:
Does Strength of Schedule (SoS) only take in to account teams we've played or our entire schedule?
Click to expand...

Usually it's just games played so far. Some sites have projected SOS and projected RPI that would be different.
 
#588      

whovous

W
Washington, DC
whovous
The Michigan NW game strikes me as being the key to our bracket chances. We want Michigan to win. If we win out and Michigan beats NW, then all we need is for Purdue to beat NW in the final game to lock up the seventh seed.

If NW beats Michigan, we need Nebraska to beat Michigan in the final game, AND we need Iowa to go 1-1 in their last two games to create a 3-way tie at 9-9 where we win the ensuing tiebreak. If Iowa loses both @ Wisconsin and at home against PSU, then we have a 2-way tie with Michigan and they win the tie-break due to their win over Purdue.

A seven seed means we likely play a slumping Wisconsin instead of Purdue.

As I look at this again, I see there is one more pitfall out there. If Iowa wins at Wisconsin and home against PSU, they'll be 10-8 and we can do no better than 8th. I don't think that is a very great risk.
 
#589      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Just noticed Northern Kentucky's RPI is 103. If they beat Wright St in the Horizon tournament and then lose in the semi's to Oakland, that would move them to exactly 100 per rpiforecast. If they beat Wright and Oakland, then they would definitely be another top 100 win for our resume.
 
#590      

illiniknight

I
illiniknight
The catch is that if NW loses to Michigan we lose two of our top 50 wins and weaken our at large profile.
 
#591      

Bogey99

Bogey99
Bogey99
ski300 said:
The catch is that if NW loses to Michigan we lose two of our top 50 wins and weaken our at large profile.
Click to expand...

I think when it comes to the bubble teams, the Selection Committee is looking a lot closer than just "Top 50" or "Top 100" wins and losses. Those groupings are shortcuts that are fine for a quick glance summary on a bracketology website, but whether a team ends up 48 or 52 won't matter much when the Committee is looking at everything to make those last few bubble selections.
 
#592      

whovous

W
Washington, DC
whovous
ski300 said:
The catch is that if NW loses to Michigan we lose two of our top 50 wins and weaken our at large profile.
Click to expand...

If NW wins, then we likely get an 8 or 9 seed and need a win over Purdue to cement a tournament bid. Further, I suspect the pairing in the 8-9 game will be much tougher than in the 7-10. We might not get to Purdue.
 
#595      

bredhartmann

B
Centralia, IL
bredhartmann
Vanderbilt just blew it at Kentucky after leading by 19 in first half. Would have been a huge win for Vandy who is ahead of us on the bubble. Man it sucked having to root for UK.
 
#597      

TylerK311

TylerK311
TylerK311
StateFarmCenter said:
They got to get their rpi out of the 90s to be a real threat. Really don't see the love for their resume that they're getting, but just imo.
Click to expand...

Yeah I was confused by that also. I think the hype is the quality wins they have. Lunardi has them in last 4 in. With Vandy losing, they're probably in according to him now. They play Syracuse next though and either loser would help us I believe.
 
#599      

illiniknight

I
illiniknight
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
NW is #51 right now anyway...
Click to expand...

True but that would improve with a win against Michigan. Look I get the committee will look harder than a hard cut line like top 50. But everyone has to remember one of the reasons we are in the at-large consideration at all is the sweep of NW. If they collapses down the stretch, one of the side effects is to weaken those wins and our resume. All of these things are so interconnected that it gets complicated. All you can really hope for is 4 more Illini wins before selection Sunday regardless of who they play. They do that you feel pretty good, if not they will need a lot of help.
 
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