Bracketology

[CoalCity]

As much as I would love beating NW for a 3rd time, it won't be them...as they will fall into 9th place after losing their next 2 games. So I would say buckeyes.

MN is the hottest team in the BT right now.....so definitely want to stay away from them in round 2. (Even though RP Jr. is a total putz!)

Most improved P5 team in the country and he's being mentioned in Coach of the Year discussions...Wish we had a putz like that.

 

[Golfer63]

Most improved P5 team in the country and he's being mentioned in Coach of the Year discussions...Wish we had a putz like that.

Yeah remember when he was the 14th best coach in the league by a long shot?

 

[Dike Eddleman]

Most improved P5 team in the country and he's being mentioned in Coach of the Year discussions...Wish we had a putz like that.

Just because you're successful doesn't mean you aren't a putz. Just look at his old man.

Maybe a better word would be weasel? :noidea:

 

[FatGreg]

Honestly, the coaching in the Big Ten right now is phenomenal. The least respected coaches in this league are still solid overall D1 coaches with some considerable strengths. I think that Groce, little Pitino, Tim Miles, et al would likely succeed in the SEC or Big East and absolutely crush at the mid-major level. Just my opinion.

 

[Ga65]

Believe if we play well we can beat anyone except Purdue. If we don't play well we can lose to anyone. Bring on whoever.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

Honestly, the coaching in the Big Ten right now is phenomenal. The least respected coaches in this league are still solid overall D1 coaches with some considerable strengths. I think that Groce, little Pitino, Tim Miles, et al would likely succeed in the SEC or Big East and absolutely crush at the mid-major level. Just my opinion.

Er, Groce didn't crush when he WAS at a mid major.

 

[Cheez]

I'd have to say that Ohio State or Nebraska would be the ideal team to play in the first round. Anecdotally speaking, it's tough to beat a team that third time within the season, and out of the five Michigan is playing the best basketball right now.

2nd round - give me Maryland. This team is playing better defense now compared to when we played the Terps the first two times.

Wisconsin is capable of laying an egg on any given night (see the Rutgers game) but is still going to be a tough matchup, and I'm not really sold on Minnesota but they are gelling at the right time. I do not want to play Purdue at all.

 

[danielb927]

Updated BTT outlook if we win out:

SEED
7 - 35%
8 - 58%
9 - 8%

First Opponent
Iowa - 55%
OSU - 18%
Neb. - 13%
Mich. - 6%
IU - 5%
NW - 3%

Second Opponent
Purdue - 64% (they've clinched the 1 seed)
Wisc. - 32%
Minny - 3%
Maryland - 1-in-1500
MSU - 1-in-3000

So, if you're holding out for a second round date with Maryland, you've got a lot of cheering to do. I don't know what that scenario is, but based on the probability it must involve at least 4 games going the correct way. I suppose you can get there pretty quickly between the requirements for a Maryland 2 seed and an Illinois 7 seed.

I also don't think anyone mentioned IU as a possible first round opponent but they're definitely in the mix. I'm also of the mind that OSU/Nebraska would be preferred draws there.

 

[westcoastillini]

Bracket matrix

We are up to first four out on bracket matrix composite.

Let's win this tonight, and climb that ladder!!

http://bracketmatrix.com/

 

[whovous]

I also don't think anyone mentioned IU as a possible first round opponent but they're definitely in the mix.

Wow, I played with a lot of scenarios, but I guess I did not play hard enough. If Illinois loses both remaining games, and Indiana, OSU, PSU, and Nebraska win all of their remaining games, then Illinois gets Indiana on Wednesday in the 11-12 game.

If we win one and finish tied for 8 thru 11 at 8-10 with Nebraska, Iowa and OSU, we get Nebraska in the 8-9 game.

 

[Cheez]

In terms of the seven seed - We can still get it with a Northwestern win against Michigan. 5 games (including our remaining two would have to go our way, but it's possible.

Illinois win out
Nebraska beat Michigan
Iowa split final two (at Wisconsin, vs. Penn State)

 

[KnoxIllini2]

So with the win tonight, do two more wins get us in or is that third win a must?

 

[KrushCow31]

Jerry Palm on BTN didn't sound too impressed with us even with the win over MSU. Called us a bubble team but wouldn't even label us as first 4 out. Said we are still missing a signature win, and our best wins are only against Northwestern who is a middle of the bracket team.

 

[Adnarel]

The bubble is pretty crowded this year. I'm not surprised to see the lack of consensus.

 

[Illini_1979]

Jerry Palm on BTN didn't sound too impressed with us even with the win over MSU. Called us a bubble team but wouldn't even label us as first 4 out. Said we are still missing a signature win, and our best wins are only against Northwestern who is a middle of the bracket team.

Palm made it sound like we need a big (upset) win in the BTT to dance.

 

[MadSeason]

The bubble is pretty crowded this year. I'm not surprised to see the lack of consensus.

We have a confusing resume to be sure. No win jumps off the page, but there isn't a bad loss and we have a good SOS. My guess is to feel comfortable we need to win 3 more games.

 

[danielb927]

Post-Wednesday BTT outlook if we take care of Rutgers:

SEED
7 - 23%
8 - 67%
9 - 10%

First Opponent
Iowa - 66%
Neb. - 13%
OSU - 11%
Mich. - 10%

Second Opponent Draw
Purdue - 76% (if 8/9 seed)
Wisc. - 21%
Minny - 2%
MD - 1-in-2000
MSU - 1-in-4000


B1G Tourney Bracket Generator
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Jerry Palm on BTN didn't sound too impressed with us even with the win over MSU. Called us a bubble team but wouldn't even label us as first 4 out. Said we are still missing a signature win, and our best wins are only against Northwestern who is a middle of the bracket team.

For a guy who is a slave to the RPI, that doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

[Adnarel]

We have a confusing resume to be sure.

Our resume could most optimistically be described as "low-key sufficient" to make the tourney. And that's why the talking heads aren't sold yet. Give me back Winthrop and PSU. Man, would the picture be so different.

 

[MadSeason]

For a guy who is a slave to the RPI, that doesn't make a lot of sense.

I agree. If North Kentucky sneaks into top 100 (which I think they will) that will be 10 top 100 wins vs no sub 100 losses. That is an RPI dream

 

[whovous]

Post-Wednesday BTT outlook if we take care of Rutgers:

SEED
7 - 23%
8 - 67%
9 - 10%

First Opponent
Iowa - 66%
Neb. - 13%
OSU - 11%
Mich. - 10%

Second Opponent Draw
Purdue - 76% (if 8/9 seed)
Wisc. - 21%
Minny - 2%
MD - 1-in-2000
MSU - 1-in-4000

I thought MSU was an impossible opponent, but it is not. All it takes is a 4-way tie for second with Wisc, MD & Minn, and a 3-way tie for 7th with Michigan and Iowa. Let Iowa finish with two wins or two losses, and we can finish no higher than eighth.

 

[UrbanaIsTheShiz]

Our resume could most optimistically be described as "low-key sufficient" to make the tourney. And that's why the talking heads aren't sold yet. Give me back Winthrop and PSU. Man, would the picture be so different.

Winthrop alone cost us 7-8 RPI slots.

 

[illynifan34]

Jerry Palm on BTN didn't sound too impressed with us even with the win over MSU. Called us a bubble team but wouldn't even label us as first 4 out. Said we are still missing a signature win, and our best wins are only against Northwestern who is a middle of the bracket team.

He had just finished up saying Northwestern was in even if they hadn't won tonight or this weekend or in DC. However I look at the team sheets between us and Northwestern and I just don't see how we are off his radar if they are that solid.

 

[Deleted member 236589]

Palm made it sound like we need a big (upset) win in the BTT to dance.

Make no mistake about it, our guys dug themselves a hole throughout the first 25 games and are now trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat with the final five + the BTT.

There are no eye popping wins or no jaw dropping losses. They've beaten some good teams, haven't beaten any real good teams and lost probably two that they shouldn't have(Winthrop and Penn State).

So, to complete this journey:

1)They have to avoid the horrific loss(Rutgers)
2)Pick up another solid win(BTT-game 1)

3)Possibly find the earmark win(BTT-game 2)

I think #3 is up for debate, but it would be a real good idea.

 

[IlliniInTexas]

Jerry Palm on BTN didn't sound too impressed with us even with the win over MSU. Called us a bubble team but wouldn't even label us as first 4 out. Said we are still missing a signature win, and our best wins are only against Northwestern who is a middle of the bracket team.

This is a ridiculous argument. He has TCU in (before tonight's loss), and their signature win is a "middle of the bracket" 7 seed Iowa State (AT HOME). Our @ 8 seeded NW is a better win with his bracket (plus we have a 9 seeded VCU in there). Other factors in our favor: Better RPI, better SOS, and better worst loss.

Palm is either wrong about us or about TCU. It can't be both.