Bracketology

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#827      

ejam21

E
ejam21
winthiscentury said:
You're describing every "mid-major" outside of Gonzaga. You're also talking about wanting a tournament of only Power 5 schools. This is a completely different discussion however. What do you think we'd say if ISU asked us to play in Normal? Hell no! That would be Whitman's answer.

So, you're going to penalize them for not playing anybody, saying their only option to increase their SOS is to go and play 4 or 5 true road games against top 20 teams to compensate for the 10-15 resume building opportunities that the P5 schools have pre-built into their schedules year in and year out?

Forget the numbers for a second.....I look at three teams that should make it just from watching them play. Middle Tennessee, Wichita State and ISU. If you think that we would go into any of those gyms and feel secure about the outcome, I think your wrong.

However, based on metrics, due to $$$$ and how the system is set up, seems you'd rather have a 10th place ACC team over an elite mid major.....Each time, every time. The RPI, BPI, blah, blah, blah....Are always going to say so.
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GTFO

Their only option is not to play true road games. hell, we played a true road game at western mich a few years back.
There are preseason tourneys, neutral games that can be arranged etc.

Sure, illionois wouldnt play them in normal but how do you know what others would do? I didnt say go play all high majors...but they dont have to play all cupcakes either.


They can also switch conferences as many mid majors have done.

Why should they get a pass for playing a crap schedule? The committed picks teams based on top 100 wins, RPI, SOS. Based on that, they probably shouldnt be in? if the question is if htey should change the criteria, thats a whole different discussion. But for now, I'l base who should be in on the criteria used to pick them.

And no they arent like eveyr mid major outside of gonzaga...wichita st played louisville, ok st, and MSU and Gasp!...none were true road games.

The only major team ISU played all year was TCU (who is a bubble team that likelly wont make it)...and they lost by 10. And this is the 8th place team in b12 and a perennial b12 bottom feeder.

How would they fare against our sched?

And no, im not talking about a tourney of only P5 schools, as WSU/ISu can win their tourney and get in.

Their resume, based on the criteria set forth by the committee, isnt very good.

And no, i dont want the 10th place acc team over an elite mid major...But you know what? ISU isnt elite. Elite mid majors dont have just 2 top 100 wins and 2 sub 100 losses in the same season. I'd consider ISU but thats a long way from thinking they are a shoo in bc they won 24 games vs a crap schedule and 2 vs decent, but not great teams.

If they had a resume like st mary's, id be on board. They are in a weaker conf but schedule team like dayton, stanford, etc who at least will be in teh top 100 in their OOC. 7 top 100 wins, no losses to cupcakes.
 
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#828      

Cheez

Cheez
Sun Prairie WI
Cheez
Tygor said:
According to kenpom:

Michigan over Nebraska (64%)
Iowa over Penn State (68% but that's before UW game)
Illinois over Rutgers (59%)
Ohio State over Indiana (57%)

Any others you need?
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The other three would be great :)
 
#829      

hin10

H
O'Fallon, MO
hin10
IF ISU played our schedule they'd be 14-15 and about 6 - 12 in the B1G.
 
#831      

Cheez

Cheez
Sun Prairie WI
Cheez
StateFarmCenter said:
Purdue 57%
Wisconsin 73% (albeit tonight's loss not quite reflected)
Maryland 67%
Illinois 59%
Iowa 68% (tonight not reflected)
Ohio St 57%
Michigan 64%

Using kenpom
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Got it, thanks.

I see I had one of the tiebreakers wrong too, so I'll be re-evaluating these tonight. **** it.
 
#833      

dweebs19

dweebs19
dweebs19
yea...Illinois will need to beat most likely Michigan and then beat Purdue for me to relax about getting into the dance. That is a tall task.
 
#834      

cmore

C
cmore
whovous said:
If Iowa Michigan and Illinois win their last games, it will be Michigan and Illinois in the 8-9 game.
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Yay. Another must win big ten tournament game against Michigan. We all know how well the last one went...
 
#835      

stevied

stevied
stevied
cmore said:
Yay. Another must win big ten tournament game against Michigan. We all know how well the last one went...
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Tracy will redeem himself this time.:thumb:
 
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#836      

Illini1221

I
Peru,IL
Illini1221
Finally some good bubble news though. California getting destroyed in Salt Lake City.
 
#837      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
So I've looked over all the possible projections on the link that someone posted on here previously, and here's how it looks like it'll break down if the following scenario happens:

Illini win at Rutgers
Penn State win at Iowa
Nebraska win at home over Michigan

Illini as a 7 lines up against 10 Nebraska with a win meaning a game vs 2 which looks like Gopher-Badger winner and this would also include an Indiana win at Ohio State.

Should the Buckeyes win, then the Illini face the Buckeyes in the 7-10 game with the winner getting, as mentioned before, Minnesota or Wisconsin.

If Iowa and Michigan win, then Illinois play the Wolverines in the 8-9 game with the winner getting Purdue in the quarterfinals. Same deal if Iowa wins and Michigan loses. If Iowa loses and Michigan wins, Illini face the Hawkeyes.
 
#838      

HC Illini

H
HC Illini
HC Illini
If the committee has to pick between us and Iowa I think our two wins over them will weigh heavily in that decision. Not worried about Iowa unless they go a round deeper than us in The BTT.
 
#839      

Cheez

Cheez
Sun Prairie WI
Cheez
StateFarmCenter said:
Purdue 57%
Wisconsin 73% (albeit tonight's loss not quite reflected)
Maryland 67%
Illinois 59%
Iowa 68% (tonight not reflected)
Ohio St 57%
Michigan 64%

Using kenpom
Click to expand...

Alright - using these and fixing my tiebreaker mistake (Iowa / Mich when Illinois is 9) ... a lot has changed. I've also gone in and thrown the likelihoods of who our second round opponent would be.

Thursday Breakdown:
9 seed vs. Michigan: 54.66% (64 / 128 scenarios)
9 seed vs. Iowa: 26.74% (32 / 128 scenarios)
8 seed vs. Iowa: 11.79% (16 / 128 scenarios)
7 seed vs. Ohio State: 3.53% (8 / 128 scenarios)
7 seed vs. Nebraska: 3.10% (8 / 128 scenarios)

Full Breakdown:
9 seed vs. Michigan / Purdue: 54.66%
9 seed vs. Iowa / Purdue: 26.74%
8 seed vs. Iowa / Purdue: 11.79%
7 seed vs. Ohio State / Wisconsin: 2.58% (4 / 128 scenarios)
7 seed vs. Nebraska / Wisconsin: 2.26% (4 / 128 scenarios)
7 seed vs. Ohio State / Minnesota: 0.95% (4 / 128 scenarios)
7 seed vs. Nebraska / Minnesota: 0.84% (4 / 128 scenarios)
 
#840      

orangem

O
orangem
Iowa is not going to the tourney. In the non-conference, they played 5 teams in the top 150 RPI and lost all 5. They do not sneak into the tourney ahead of us on conference record simply because they played Rutgers twice to have one more win in the big 10. They are not even close.
 
#842      

BillyBob1

BillyBob1
Champaign
BillyBob1
Just said on espn the great Lunardi has Iowa in next 4 out. They've had some really good wins, but don't they have some really bad losses?
 
#844      

westcoastillini

W
westcoastillini
BIG tourney

If Illini and Iowa win out, it looks like this will only get sorted out in the conference tourney. We are going to have to play out of our minds next week...
 
#848      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Not too worried about PSU dropping out of top 100. Like others have said, there isn't really a difference between 95 or 105. Technically it would be a bad loss, but the committee will look closer and see how how bad those losses are.

Also, I think something not being talked about much is our road/neutral record. It's pretty good compared to many other bubble teams. And since tournament games are played away from home I it makes perfect sense to have road/neutral record be a big factor. I think/hope that our road/neutral record will cover up the fact that we have no marquee win.
 
#849      

westcoastillini

W
westcoastillini
jrichisamazing said:
Not too worried about PSU dropping out of top 100. Like others have said, there isn't really a difference between 95 or 105. Technically it would be a bad loss, but the committee will look closer and see how how bad those losses are.

Also, I think something not being talked about much is our road/neutral record. It's pretty good compared to many other bubble teams. And since tournament games are played away from home I it makes perfect sense to have road/neutral record be a big factor. I think/hope that our road/neutral record will cover up the fact that we have no marquee win.
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I think we need 3 more wins... I hope I am wrong.

Ah. Screw it! We are playing as good as anyone in the BIG right now. We here's to making a run in the BIG!
 
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