Bracketology

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#776      
Makes sense, so we should be rooting for Wich. St. cause that will clear a spot. I don't see how they get an at large with their schedule.
 
#777      

frozenrope9190

Aurora, IL
History of Big 10 Tourney:


Created it myself. W means they won the tourney. F means they lost in the finals. S means they lost in the Semis. I did a count of all three, and Illinois historically has been quite good, especially pre 2011. Michigan State and Ohio State are the top of the class, but Illinois is definitely 2nd tier with Wisconsin.
 

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#778      
History of Big 10 Tourney:


Created it myself. W means they won the tourney. F means they lost in the finals. S means they lost in the Semis. I did a count of all three, and Illinois historically has been quite good, especially pre 2011. Michigan State and Ohio State are the top of the class, but Illinois is definitely 2nd tier with Wisconsin.

First 13 years of the BTT, the Illini made it at least to the semis 12 times, with 6 finals appearances and 2 championships.

Haven't made it past the quarters in the six years since.

Tells you pretty much all you need to know about Illinois's fall in stature in the conference.
 
#779      

peace davids

Colorado
Northwestern:
RPI: 46
SOS: 66
Top 50 RPI wins: 21, 33, 40, 47
Top 50 Record: 4-6
51-100 Record: 6-3
101-200 Record: 6-0
201+ Record: 5-0

Illinois
RPI: 56
SOS: 18
Top 50 RPI wins: 22, 45, 46, 46, 47
Top 50 Record: 5-8
51-100 Record: 6-4
101-200 Record: 1-0
201+ Record: 5-0

Updated from yesterday's action. Looks like the Kitties are truly legit and we are right where we need to be - in the conversation.

I'm love this little comparison tool that CBS has: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/NWEST/ILL
 
#781      
First 13 years of the BTT, the Illini made it at least to the semis 12 times, with 6 finals appearances and 2 championships.

Haven't made it past the quarters in the six years since.

Tells you pretty much all you need to know about Illinois's fall in stature in the conference.

For those curious, we are...

16-7 (.696) in Chicago
and
11-10 (.524) in Indianapolis

Way more fun when we play at home! Through Dee's senior year (I think Dee leaving Campus is many people's "beginning of the end"), we were...

13-4 (.795) in Chicago
and
3-3 (.500) in Indianapolis
 
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#782      
Looking more at Syracuse, I'm finding their results a little lacking. 17 wins, but 15 of those are at home. They are 2-10 away from the Carrier Dome, beating only NC St (in OT) and Clemson (by 1 pt). They do have good wins over UVa, FSU and Duke, but also bad losses to St John's, UConn and a really bad BC team. RPI is 79! They're still definitely on the bubble and not in, but I just think people overreacted to that Duke win. Seems like a team that can't afford another loss.

The committee has said that while RPI is considered, it is one of multiple indices used; Sagarin being another. The RPI is acknowledged as being so poor an indicator that they are going to stop using it. It normally takes a Sagarin rating under 40 to be in. A rating of 45 and strongly trending up, is a last four in resume. Ratings of 50+ are the wrong side of the bubble.

If you look at the Sagarin ratings, Kenpom, etc. Syracuse is ~40th. If they had any deced road wins, they would be in. The lack is why they are part of the last four in discussion.

IL on the other hand has a LONG way to go by the numbers. IL is currently ~65 on both Sagarin and Kenpom. Blow out wins at Rutgers and Iowa (30+ each) and another solid win (Purdue), probably won't break the 50 barrier. It certainly won't make 45th. The only way in right now is for a lot of the committee members give us a bye via the eye test.

If IL makes the field, they are likely the one that everyone else says 'Why did they get our slot. Our numbers are better.'
 
#783      

Deleted member 236589

D
Guest
The committee has said that while RPI is considered, it is one of multiple indices used; Sagarin being another. The RPI is acknowledged as being so poor an indicator that they are going to stop using it. It normally takes a Sagarin rating under 40 to be in. A rating of 45 and strongly trending up, is a last four in resume. Ratings of 50+ are the wrong side of the bubble.

If you look at the Sagarin ratings, Kenpom, etc. Syracuse is ~40th. If they had any deced road wins, they would be in. The lack is why they are part of the last four in discussion.

IL on the other hand has a LONG way to go by the numbers. IL is currently ~65 on both Sagarin and Kenpom. Blow out wins at Rutgers and Iowa (30+ each) and another solid win (Purdue), probably won't break the 50 barrier. It certainly won't make 45th. The only way in right now is for a lot of the committee members give us a bye via the eye test.

If IL makes the field, they are likely the one that everyone else says 'Why did they get our slot. Our numbers are better.'

If they beat Rutgers, Iowa and Purdue.....At 21-13, with the amount of top 100 wins they'd have, top 50 wins they'd have, a top 25 win., 7 or 8 Road/Neutral court wins at that point.....Nobody is going to question them whatsoever.

I know they don't put it in writing that they take it into consideration, but winning 7 in a row....5 of them being away from home....IL wouldn't have to justify their inclusion to anybody.

Now.....All of those are mighty big "ifs".
 
#786      
Can anyone explain the logic of Illinois St. being in over us on a lot of brackets? They have literally played no one except Wichita St. who they split...I have to believe the committee won't put them in.

It would be a travesty if Illinois State doesn't make the tournamnet
 
#787      
The committee has said that while RPI is considered, it is one of multiple indices used; Sagarin being another. The RPI is acknowledged as being so poor an indicator that they are going to stop using it. It normally takes a Sagarin rating under 40 to be in. A rating of 45 and strongly trending up, is a last four in resume. Ratings of 50+ are the wrong side of the bubble.

If you look at the Sagarin ratings, Kenpom, etc. Syracuse is ~40th. If they had any deced road wins, they would be in. The lack is why they are part of the last four in discussion.

IL on the other hand has a LONG way to go by the numbers. IL is currently ~65 on both Sagarin and Kenpom. Blow out wins at Rutgers and Iowa (30+ each) and another solid win (Purdue), probably won't break the 50 barrier. It certainly won't make 45th. The only way in right now is for a lot of the committee members give us a bye via the eye test.

If IL makes the field, they are likely the one that everyone else says 'Why did they get our slot. Our numbers are better.'

The NCAA is investigating using more analytics as part of the process, but there are no definitive plans yet, they hope to have something in place next year. So yes, they have access to Sagarin, Pomeroy, etc but RPI is still the official tool used even as they down play its importance.
 
#788      
Now that Minnesota has won, is there any outcome where Illinois doesn't play round1 vs Iowa and round2 vs Purdue now?
 
#791      

Deleted member 236589

D
Guest
It would be a travesty if Illinois State doesn't make the tournamnet

I agree. They've had a great season and if they get to the MVC Championship game, they should be in without question.

I do find it somewhat humorous in some of our fans puffing our chests out on how deserving we are over a team like Illinois State, who has played great since December.

Three weeks ago, we're ready to fire the coach, the team wasn't NIT worthy.....The SFC was on the verge of being burned to the ground....

ISU is going to win between 25-28 games, they won their conference regular season championship and we'll see what happens this weekend. If they get to the Championship game, lose to Wichita State and get left out.....That would be BRUTAL. They've done the work.

We still have work to do.
 
#792      
I think Xavier is firmly on the bubble after falling apart recently.

I think they are still in, but the way they are going they could easily lose to Depaul this weekend. That happens and I think they're gone.
 
#794      

jmwillini

Tolono, IL
For those of you that like to compare the Illini vs. Other Bubble Teams this gives a side by side RPI comparison and allows you to pick any two teams!


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison


I'll never figure out how they judge teams, (especially RPI). I hope ISU makes it along with Illinois, the more in state teams the merrier, but I can't figure out how they are even close. Sure, you can only play who is on the schedule, but....

Illinois State
SOS - 141
RPI - 32
Teams ranked 1-50 - 1-1
Teams ranked 51-100 - 1-2
Teams ranked 101-200 - 12- 1 (114 Tulsa on the road)
Teams ranked 201+ - 10-1 (236 Murray State on the road)


Illinois
SOS - 18
RPI - 56
Teams ranked 1-50 - 5-8
Teams ranked 51-100 - 6-4
Teams ranked 101-200 - 1-0
Teams ranked 201+ - 5-0
 
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#795      

Ransom Stoddard

Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
I agree. They've had a great season and if they get to the MVC Championship game, they should be in without question.

I do find it somewhat humorous in some of our fans puffing our chests out on how deserving we are over a team like Illinois State, who has played great since December.

Three weeks ago, we're ready to fire the coach, the team wasn't NIT worthy.....The SFC was on the verge of being burned to the ground....

ISU is going to win between 25-28 games, they won their conference regular season championship and we'll see what happens this weekend. If they get to the Championship game, lose to Wichita State and get left out.....That would be BRUTAL. They've done the work.

We still have work to do.

Come on man, you're exaggerating a bit. No one wanted to burn the SFC down.

:)
 
#798      
Why?

Lost to #232 RPI

Best win is vs #41 RPI

Next best is #87

After that? #114

One decent win, one horrible loss and a bunch of meh wins

Exactly. Terrible resume. They should only be in if they win their tournament.
 
#800      

jmwillini

Tolono, IL
Okay, I was bored....

Syracuse
SOS - 42
RPI - 79
Teams ranked 1-50 - 6-7
Teams ranked 50-100 - 2-3
Teams ranked 101-200 - 3-2 (Losses to 109 UConn - neutral and 128 St. John's - home)
Teams ranked 201+ - 6-1 (Loss to 208 BC - road)

Xavier
SOS - 6
RPI - 35
Teams ranked 1-50 - 3-8
Teams ranked 50-100 - 5-3
Teams ranked 101-200 - 8-1 (Loss to 115 Colorado on the road,)
Teams ranked 201+ - 2-0

Seton Hall
SOS - 51
RPI - 48
Teams ranked 1-50 - 3-6
Teams ranked 50-100 - 6-3
Teams ranked 101-200 - 2-1 (Loss to 128 St. JOhn's on the road.)
Teams ranked 201+ - 8-0

Wake Forest
SOS - 22
RPI - 40
Teams ranked 1-50 - 2-9
Teams ranked 50-100 - 5-3
Teams ranked 101-200 - 5-0
Teams ranked 201+ - 5-0

Wichita State
SOS - 150
RPI - 41
Teams ranked 1-50 - 1-4
Teams ranked 50-100 - 1-0
Teams ranked 101-200 - 11-0
Teams ranked 201+ - 13-0

Vanderbilt
SOS - 3
RPI - 49
Teams ranked 1-50 - 4-7
Teams ranked 50-100 - 5-6
Teams ranked 101-200 - 5-0
Teams ranked 201+ - 2-1 (Loss to 255 Missouri on the road.)

Marquette
SOS - 57
RPI - 58
Teams ranked 1-50 - 6-6
Teams ranked 50-100 - 3-4
Teams ranked 101-200 - 2-1 (Loss to 128 St. John's on the road.)
Teams ranked 201+ -7-0

Rhode Island
SOS - 53
RPI - 44
Teams ranked 1-50 - 2-3
Teams ranked 50-100 - 2-4
Teams ranked 101-200 - 10-1 (Loss to 132 LaSalle at home.)
Teams ranked 201+ -6-1 (Loss to 207 Fordham at home.)


Illinois
SOS - 18
RPI - 56
Teams ranked 1-50 - 5-8
Teams ranked 50-100 - 6-4
Teams ranked 101-200 - 1-0
Teams ranked 201+ - 5-0
 
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