538 is good but I don't care. It's simple. Win tomorrow.
I'm a big fan of 538, and the explanation of how they did this makes sense. Sucks for us, though. I'd be curious to see these metrics against previous years and see how successful they are.
I have a feeling I'm going to jinx it - but USC trails 9-21 Washington 39-37 at half. Fultz not playing tonight for UW either.
USC is one of the BracketMatrix's last 4 in.
I'm confused with USC. I never get to watch the PAC 12 so I'm uninformed but how are they on the bubble with a 23-8 record?
I'm confused with USC. I never get to watch the PAC 12 so I'm uninformed but how are they on the bubble with a 23-8 record?
Because we live in opposite world and in opposite world Syracuse is in with an 18-14 record.
Thanks. I got a kick out of that one :thumb: The whole Syracuse thing blows my mind.
Cant help but think that if you put USC's name on Syracuse's resume, they would be easily out.
unfortunately for us, it seems that I was right. USC pulling away in the second half.
I'm a big fan of 538, and the explanation of how they did this makes sense. Sucks for us, though. I'd be curious to see these metrics against previous years and see how successful they are.
What's really needed are statistics that show if your predicted bid chances agree with reality: do teams with a 0-10% chance really get bids 0-10% of the time? A quick check makes me think Dance Card, in particular, is highly overconfident on their reported bid chances. They assign the probabilities 100%, 100%, 100%, 99%, 70% to their last 5 teams in (the non-freebies); if those were accurate, they'd expect to get 94% of the freebies and 99% overall, not the 95% they've achieved historically.
I thought DC isn't a probability of whether we will get a bid, but a number reflecting the percentage of teams with a similar resume who have made the dance historically. To the extent past results are not predictive, the number loses value.
That's correct.I thought DC isn't a probability of whether we will get a bid, but a number reflecting the percentage of teams with a similar resume who have made the dance historically.
That's correct.
It may not be intentional, but the site is a bit misleading in this regard. A lot of people will just see "chance of bid" and a percentage and assume it's a predictive probability.
Why is Vanderbilt considered likely in? They had a couple good wins vs Florida, but their W/Ls read like they suck outside of that.
With our luck, we'll win the next two and then lose to Penn State in the Semi-Finals, leaving us out for losing to Penn State a third time.