Bracketology (Week of March 8th)

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#1      

Dan

Dan
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Dan
The Selection Show
Sunday, March 14th
5:00pm CT
CBS


Illinois #4 in the NET Rankings (games thru March 7th)
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Illinois a 1 seed in the Bracket Matrix (updated March 7th)
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


The selection committee begins its work on Tuesday, March 9th.

"Tuesday Before Selection Sunday
The committee arrives in Indianapolis for the beginning of the selection process. For the next five days, the 10 committee members will cast hundreds of ballots and engage in debate over dozens of teams until the final bracket of 68 is released on Selection Sunday."
https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-committee
 
#2      

CV Illini

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CV Illini
KPI has the Illini as a 3, Miznoz as a 3 and Iowa as a 6 seed in bracket matrix. Hilarious.
 
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#3      

Oldskoolkoach

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Oldskoolkoach
I would take Lunardi's bracket, just like it is. I's rather match up with Gonzaga than Baylor in the Semi's if we make it that far.
 
#8      

othawhitemeat

O
othawhitemeat
Dan said:
The Selection Show
Sunday, March 14th
5:00pm CT
CBS


Illinois #4 in the NET Rankings (games thru March 7th)
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Illinois a 1 seed in the Bracket Matrix (updated March 7th)
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


The selection committee begins its work on Tuesday, March 9th.

"Tuesday Before Selection Sunday
The committee arrives in Indianapolis for the beginning of the selection process. For the next five days, the 10 committee members will cast hundreds of ballots and engage in debate over dozens of teams until the final bracket of 68 is released on Selection Sunday."
https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-committee
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How is Michigan still the #3 team is beyond me. I know they have less losses, but they played 9 Big 10 games at homes, had a weak non conference and played each of Purdont, Ohio State, us, and Iowa only once. We played Purdon't and Iowa only once each too, but played Ohio State 2x, played a much tougher non conference, and played a much tougher way of scheduling down the stretch too.
 
#10      

Deleted member 747802

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Deleted member 747802
othawhitemeat said:
How is Michigan still the #3 team is beyond me. I know they have less losses, but they played 9 Big 10 games at homes, had a weak non conference and played each of Purdont, Ohio State, us, and Iowa only once. We played Purdon't and Iowa only once each too, but played Ohio State 2x, played a much tougher non conference, and played a much tougher way of scheduling down the stretch too.
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They are the college basketball media's chosen ones this year for whatever reason. None of them want to admit they could have been overrating them a bit. Also, most of the media are too lazy to dig for the kind of info you present.
 
#13      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
AirNeezy said:
Just realized that 6 out of the top 13 teams on Kenpom are from the B1G. (and we went 16-4)

Jesus.
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Strength of Schedule on KenPom is kinda hilarious.

1615220284120.png
 
#14      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Did this once before at the season midway point, but here's what the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and Strength of Record (SOR) metrics are showing in terms of tournament projections:

First, WAB: https://barttorvik.com/?sort=34&beg...501&conlimit=All&year=2021&top=0&quad=5&rpi=#

1 seeds: 1) Gonzaga 2) Illinois 3) Michigan 4) Baylor
2 seeds: 5) Alabama 6) Iowa 7) Ohio State 8) Arkansas
3 seeds: 9) Purdue 10) Kansas 11) Oklahoma State 12) Villanova
4 seeds: 13) Clemson 14) USC 15) West Virginia 16) Oregon
5 seeds: 17) Houston 18) BYU 19) Virginia 20) Creighton
6 seeds: 21) Texas 22) Florida State 23) Colorado 24) Connecticut
7 seeds: 25) Tennessee 26) Missouri 27) Wisconsin 28) Michigan State
8 seeds: 29) San Diego State 30) North Carolina 31) Wichita State 32) UCLA
9 seeds: 33) Louisville 34) Rutgers 35) Loyola-Chicago 36) VCU
10 seeds: 37) LSU 38) St. Bonaventure 39) Drake 40) Florida
11 seeds: 41) Virginia Tech 42) Texas Tech 43) Georgia Tech 44) SMU
12 seeds: 45) Winthrop 46) Colorado State 47) Colgate
Last 4 in: 48) Syracuse 49) Oklahoma 50) Xavier 51) Maryland
FIrst 4 out: 52) St. John's 53) Boise State 54) Western Kentucky 55) Penn State
Next 4 out: 56) Indiana 57) Navy 58) St. Mary's 59) St. Louis

Second, by SOR: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume

1 seeds: 1) Gonzaga 2) Baylor 3) Michigan 4) Illinois
2 seeds: 5) Alabama 6) Iowa 7) Arkansas 8) Ohio State
3 seeds: 9) Oklahoma State 10) Kansas 11) Purdue 12) Clemson
4 seeds: 13) Texas 14) Villanova 15) West Virginia 16) Virginia
5 seeds: 17) USC 18) Oregon 19) Houston 20) Florida State
6 seeds: 21) Creighton 22) BYU 23) Missouri 24) Connecticut
7 seeds: 25) Tennessee 26) Colorado 27) Wisconsin 28) Louisville
8 seeds: 29) North Carolina 30) Michigan State 31) VCU 32) LSU
9 seeds: 33) Rutgers 34) St. Bonaventure 35) Wichita State 36) Florida
10 seeds: 37) Virginia Tech 38) Texas Tech 39) San Diego State 40) UCLA
11 seeds: 41) Georgia Tech 42) Loyola Chicago 43) Syracuse 44) SMU
12 seeds: 45) Oklahoma 46) Winthrop
Last 4 in: 47) Drake 48) Maryland 49) Xavier 50) St. John's
First 4 out: 51) Penn State 52) Colorado State 53) Western Kentucky 54) Colgate
Next 4 out: 55) Indiana 56) Providence 57) Seton Hall 58) NC State
 
#15      

CubsWin

C
CubsWin
jrichisamazing said:
If Iowa or OSU beat us and Michigan then do they steal the 1 seed from us?
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I'm not worried about Ohio St, but if Iowa beats us and then beats Michigan in the finals, then I definitely think there would be an argument for Michigan and Iowa getting the 1 seeds. Hopefully Wisconsin wakes up and knocks Iowa off and then we don't have to worry about it.
 
#17      

Deleted member 186590

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CubsWin said:
I'm not worried about Ohio St, but if Iowa beats us and then beats Michigan in the finals, then I definitely think there would be an argument for Michigan and Iowa getting the 1 seeds. Hopefully Wisconsin wakes up and knocks Iowa off and then we don't have to worry about it.
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I still don't see Iowa getting a 1 seed from us in any scenario - which is why all the braketologists are saying it's locked - even if Iowa did that, they have some problems being viewed above us by the committee
1) our SOS is significantly higher
2) We would have the better quality win - beating Michigan by 23 at their place, Iowa lost to Michigan by 22 at Michigan
3) We finished 2 games ahead of them in the big ten conference

The conference tournaments just don't carry the same weight - the committee meets on Tuesday and start putting teams on the lines and to move someone, really requires something significant in the resume - Iowa would narrow the gap between their resume and ours and tie us in Quad 1 wins, we would be tied in the loss column - but the three items above would win the day and it wouldn't be that close of a decision

Relax, we're a one seed! I would like to get a higher 1 seed than Michigan just to have a little easier 2 seed in our bracket but it won't make a huge difference
 
#20      

I11ini82

I
I11ini82
Henson71 said:
I still don't see Iowa getting a 1 seed from us in any scenario - which is why all the braketologists are saying it's locked - even if Iowa did that, they have some problems being viewed above us by the committee
1) our SOS is significantly higher
2) We would have the better quality win - beating Michigan by 23 at their place, Iowa lost to Michigan by 22 at Michigan
3) We finished 2 games ahead of them in the big ten conference

The conference tournaments just don't carry the same weight - the committee meets on Tuesday and start putting teams on the lines and to move someone, really requires something significant in the resume - Iowa would narrow the gap between their resume and ours and tie us in Quad 1 wins, we would be tied in the loss column - but the three items above would win the day and it wouldn't be that close of a decision

Relax, we're a one seed! I would like to get a higher 1 seed than Michigan just to have a little easier 2 seed in our bracket but it won't make a huge difference
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While I do think there might be a way for Iowa to sneak past us, I think the chances are incredibly small. They would have to blow out Wisconsin on Friday, and then blow us out of the water on Saturday and then blow Michigan (or mayyyybe OSU) out on Sunday.

The committee doesn't take conference standings into account. The committee would easily be able to just flip Iowa/Illinois without having to make any changes to the rest of the bracket.

I will repeat - the odds of this happening are incredibly low, maybe 1%.

I do agree with you that I would love to avoid Alabama. So if we can jump Michigan, we'll get whoever the other non-Big Ten 2 seed is. Houston, WVU, whoever it ends up being.
 
#21      

Oldskoolkoach

O
Oldskoolkoach
CubsWin said:
I'm not worried about Ohio St, but if Iowa beats us and then beats Michigan in the finals, then I definitely think there would be an argument for Michigan and Iowa getting the 1 seeds. Hopefully Wisconsin wakes up and knocks Iowa off and then we don't have to worry about it.
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Did we not just beat Michigan in an old school behind the wood shed drubbing?
 
#22      

Deleted member 11228

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Deleted member 11228
Henson71 said:
I still don't see Iowa getting a 1 seed from us in any scenario - which is why all the braketologists are saying it's locked - even if Iowa did that, they have some problems being viewed above us by the committee
1) our SOS is significantly higher
2) We would have the better quality win - beating Michigan by 23 at their place, Iowa lost to Michigan by 22 at Michigan
3) We finished 2 games ahead of them in the big ten conference

The conference tournaments just don't carry the same weight - the committee meets on Tuesday and start putting teams on the lines and to move someone, really requires something significant in the resume - Iowa would narrow the gap between their resume and ours and tie us in Quad 1 wins, we would be tied in the loss column - but the three items above would win the day and it wouldn't be that close of a decision

Relax, we're a one seed! I would like to get a higher 1 seed than Michigan just to have a little easier 2 seed in our bracket but it won't make a huge difference
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Agreed. The number 1 seed race is over. We've got 1 of the 4. Iowa winning the conference tournament holds no weight over what transpired throughout the season. If Iowa wanted the number 1 seed they should have beat us and/or Michigan and they lost both of them. They will be a 2 seed and we will be the 1.
 
#23      

Deleted member 746963

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Deleted member 746963
NCAA Tournament Bracket Question?

I seem to recall way back that two teams from the same conference CANNOT play/be scheduled against each other in the traditional first 2 rounds (Example: Illinois could NOT play Purdue until the sweet 16 at minimum). IS this still accurate? Was it ever accurate : ) Just looked at Jerry Palms CBS bracket and he has us playin potential 9 seed Michaigan State in round of 32. Any information would be appreciated!
 
#24      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
BfosterL said:
NCAA Tournament Bracket Question?

I seem to recall way back that two teams from the same conference CANNOT play/be scheduled against each other in the traditional first 2 rounds (Example: Illinois could NOT play Purdue until the sweet 16 at minimum). IS this still accurate? Was it ever accurate : ) Just looked at Jerry Palms CBS bracket and he has us playin potential 9 seed Michaigan State in round of 32. Any information would be appreciated!
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NCAA.org - The Official Site of the NCAA

www.ncaa.org www.ncaa.org

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the third round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.

Any principle can be relaxed if two or more teams from the same conference are among the last four at-large teams selected to the field to participate in the First Four.​
 
#25      

Bleedorangeandblue44

B
Bleedorangeandblue44
I11ini82 said:
While I do think there might be a way for Iowa to sneak past us, I think the chances are incredibly small. They would have to blow out Wisconsin on Friday, and then blow us out of the water on Saturday and then blow Michigan (or mayyyybe OSU) out on Sunday.

The committee doesn't take conference standings into account. The committee would easily be able to just flip Iowa/Illinois without having to make any changes to the rest of the bracket.

I will repeat - the odds of this happening are incredibly low, maybe 1%.

I do agree with you that I would love to avoid Alabama. So if we can jump Michigan, we'll get whoever the other non-Big Ten 2 seed is. Houston, WVU, whoever it ends up being.
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I'm with everyone saying we should have the No. 1 seed locked. But after a lifetime of watching infuriating things happen back to the Illini playing the '84 regional final on Kentucky's home court to as recently as yesterday's conclusion of the Big Ten race, I personally won't breathe easy until seeing the 1 pop up next to the Illini's name Sunday if indeed Iowa beats Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan to win the BTT. (and I think the odds of that are very small as well as Illinois is playing and however Wieskamp's ankle is doing)

Which makes me wonder, would it hurt Iowa's chances if Illinois loses Friday and they don't get a chance for a head-to-head win, or a chance to beat the No. 3 team in the country added to their resume? We would still have the 1-0 advantage head-to-head vs. them. Would be odd if a loss helped us, though I certainly don't want to see it happen.

Or if Iowa did happen to beat us on its way to winning the BTT, but beats Michigan State in the title game instead of Michigan, who also lost early in this scenario like we did, could Iowa replace Michigan as a 1 seed instead of Illinois? I guess Iowa's recent blowout head-to-head loss to Michigan would make it impossible, even if Michigan would be 1-3 in its last 4 games.

It sounds like the bracketolgy experts here and nationally say the conference tournaments don't matter and I'll take their words, but if either of those scenarios happen I'd be curious if anything changes on the 1 line.
 
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