Dan
Admin
Illinois a 6 seed in the Bracket Matrix
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Bracketology
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OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Agree - if we go 4-1 I think we'd end up a 5, but the odds of beating NW are decreasing by the day...
I see us as a 7 seed by the time it's all said & done
Call me crazy, but with this group I'd prefer a 6 or 7 seed over a 5. This team would be a trendy 12-5 upset pick and I want no part of that bad juju. I like this team as a dangerous higher seed.
Finish 4-1, 2-1 in the BTT and we get a 5 or 6 seed.
turnaround3
- 1st & Daniel
Running the regular season table (5-0) and winning the BTT probably nets a #3, so that's the hypothetical ceiling. Obviously that's extremely unlikely, all things considered - particularly the massive unknown with TSJ.
The wheels completely falling off and going 1-4ish with a one&done in the BTT results in something like a #9 (maybe a #8, either way you're in that same #8-#9 game), I think. Body of work and pivotal wins earlier in the year prevent us from freefalling any further than that, I believe, making that the basement.
If TSJ is back quickly and Underwood finally accepts that RJ's minutes need to be going to Harris then I really like our chances to go on a run here and wrap up much closer to our ceiling than our floor. Opportunity for a huge 3-0 B1G week here goes a long, long way toward all that. On the flip side of that coin, two chances for horrendously ugly losses as well. Time to hit the gas.
The wheels completely falling off and going 1-4ish with a one&done in the BTT results in something like a #9 (maybe a #8, either way you're in that same #8-#9 game), I think. Body of work and pivotal wins earlier in the year prevent us from freefalling any further than that, I believe, making that the basement.
If TSJ is back quickly and Underwood finally accepts that RJ's minutes need to be going to Harris then I really like our chances to go on a run here and wrap up much closer to our ceiling than our floor. Opportunity for a huge 3-0 B1G week here goes a long, long way toward all that. On the flip side of that coin, two chances for horrendously ugly losses as well. Time to hit the gas.
As we stand today, I'd probably have us as a 7 seed.
Finish the year 8-0, we might move up to a 4.
Finish the year 8-0, we might move up to a 4.
the national
- the Front Range
I’m shocked we are still holding a 6 seed. This tournament field might be one of the weaker ones in a while. Or perhaps there is no elite class and the field is better. Either way, I think the portal has a lot to do with it.
the national
- the Front Range
It’s likely (and necessary) we win at Ohio st and at home against Mich. if we don’t win those, we aren’t who we thought we were.
If you only look at the brackets that were updated after the IU game, we have slipped to a 7 seed.
That's a weak team sheet for a six seed. FWIW UNC was, I think, 8-8 in their Q1/2 games going into the tournament.
Also FWIW, our Q1/2 record and average NET win/loss rankings line up pretty well with San Francisco (10 seed) from last year.
Also FWIW, our Q1/2 record and average NET win/loss rankings line up pretty well with San Francisco (10 seed) from last year.
I agree with you. To be clear, I'm not saying that we're on the bubble. However, we're closer to the bubble than we are a lock. I think that we're in the 8-9 range right now. The Texas and UCLA games are propping us up right now.
The crazy thing about the big ten (and this team particularly) is that there quite literally is no game I could not foresee a 20 pt loss or 20 pt victory. Minny is the only team I don’t see having a snowballs chance at a beat down.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
I think those two early HUGE wins are starting to look smaller and smaller in our rear view mirror. Who is playing better basketball NOW, us or Northwestern?
Which is more relevant to seeding in the NCAA, our long in the tooth wins or NW‘s long ago cupcake preseason?
Bottom line, seeding aside, we will go as far as our current roster and current playing style and current toughness takes us and I hope it is deep into March.
Go Illini
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I’m indifferent to trendy media picks. We’ve been there many times before. But this year is probably agree with you that a 6 may be better than a 5 bc the difference in the chalk second round opponent (3 vs 4) will likely be negligible compared to the 3rd (1 vs 2). Certainly wouldn’t prefer a 7 over either and have to see a 2 seed in round 2
Possibly the underdog in that game?
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
5, 6, or 7 - it really don't matter, gotta play,
First Round
The opening slate is unsurprisingly the most predictable. At seeds 1-4 we can advance teams in our bracket without much worry of an upset. The only real surprise is that 12 seeds perform as well against 5 seeds as 11s do against 6 seeds. 2018 marked the first time in history a #1 upset a #16, kudos to you if you picked UMBC over Virginia! The odds are this won’t happen again for a long time. You are better off assuming all #1 seeds are going to advance past this round.| SEED | WINS | LOSSES | WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 143 | 1 | 99% |
| 2 | 135 | 9 | 94% |
| 3 | 122 | 22 | 85% |
| 4 | 113 | 31 | 78% |
| 5 | 93 | 51 | 65% |
| 6 | 90 | 54 | 63% |
| 7 | 87 | 57 | 60% |
| 8 | 71 | 73 | 49% |
| 9 | 73 | 71 | 51% |
| 10 | 57 | 87 | 40% |
| 11 | 54 | 90 | 38% |
| 12 | 51 | 93 | 35% |
| 13 | 31 | 113 | 22% |
| 14 | 22 | 122 | 15% |
| 15 | 9 | 135 | 6% |
| 16 | 1 | 143 | 1% |
No respect at all until we start earning them….
Yeah, precisely where my head is at.
I think things get dicey if this team doesn't go at least 3-2 to end the year.
re: quad 1 wins as compared to last year. for whatever reason, the NET algorithm is infatuated with the BIG12 - and have an inordinate number of top 30 teams - crowding out other P5 teams - so not many opportunities. A TV stat this weekend was BIG12 avg NET is 28ish. 6 in top 21. their middle is good but not that good and they dont have a Minnesota to drag the conf down. they have 8 in front of NW, MSU, Iowa. ACC on the other hand, the only thing propping up the records of Duke and UNC is that they get to play Lville, GTech, FSU, BC, ND, Syr, VTech, ... Clemson was on top for how long? and any time Duke beats two of those in a row, the headlines are how Duke is finally putting it all together.
Everyone is looking at our warts but I see as many or more warts on just about the entire #10-30. No reason with right matchups it cant be us that has a long run.
Everyone is looking at our warts but I see as many or more warts on just about the entire #10-30. No reason with right matchups it cant be us that has a long run.
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
Careful what you wish for. You just might get it.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
Id like to see our alum Sean Evans interview Brad Evans over some hot wings
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