AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
Illinois jumped up from an average seed of 6.14 to 4.80 on Bracket Matrix.
Bracketology
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If this were to be the actual bracket I’d love this… Alabama, Kansas, Ole Miss, Duke don’t scare me… would love a rematch with Marquette or Tennessee in the elite 8..
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Nice to be able to have this thread live and active in the second week of December and not be talking about bubbles/NIT.
Duke is interesting. The analytics seem to like them despite having 6 wins (four Q4, one Q3, one Q2) and 3 losses (Q1A, Q2, and Q3). Is that even a tourney team as of today?
Yes, it's Duke! No, I don't like it.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Long way to go, but this is our resume right now...
Record: 7-2
NET Ranking: #18
Quad 1: 1-2
Quad 2: 1-0
Quad 3: 1-0
Quad 4: 4-0
Best Win: vs. #17 FAU (Neutral)
Bad Losses: None
Certainly looks more like a 4 seed to me. FAU is above us with a loss to us, the same number of Quad 1 wins and a Quad 4 loss? Lol.
EDIT: The fluctuation in the NET Rankings over the next couple of months will be wild and will affect a lot, too. Iowa was in the top 25 just like last week, and they are #65 now, lol. Rutgers is currently #77, 2 spots behind where we'd need them to be for another Quad 1 win.
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Thanks - it's fun to see our quad wins/losses as the season progresses. Though admittedly it's more fun to see the win number go up...
Loooooong way to go, but 4-5 seems about right for now.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I wonder how deep the committee looks at individual wins.
Is a win against the #10 NET team considered the same as a win against the #74 NET team because they’re both Quad 1?
If the top 10 win is worth more, how much more?
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, I am sure these things have to at least matter for tie-breakers. And then you might have Wisconsin and Illinois as two 4 or 5 seeds, but we cannot meet before the Sweet Sixteen per the official rules ... so maybe the team with the more impressive win gets to go to a more favorable bracket? It would certainly be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the Committee is doing its thing!
I think there is also a Quad 1-A section on the committee members' team sheets. I'm not sure how exactly they weight these things though.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I’ve heard people mention Quad 1-A, but I don’t see it on the NET team sheet (could be missing it).
Looks like the committee does see an average NET ranking of wins & losses and the NET ranking of each individual win & loss in quadrant + the location and date of that game.
If you look at the Quad 1 (and 2) caregories there’s like an upper section and a lower section.
I think when people talk about the “1A” thing, they are referencing the top section of the quad 1 category.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
It's interesting to look at our games by home/away/neutral and how close they are to falling into different Quad territories, too.
HOME
Quad 1: #1-30
L vs. #9 Marquette
vs. #4 Purdue
Quad 2: #31-75
vs. #46 Northwestern
vs. #65 Iowa
vs. #66 Michigan
vs. #67 Nebraska
Quad 3: #76-160
vs. #77 Rutgers
vs. #83 Michigan State
W vs. #105 Oakland
vs. #115 Minnesota
vs. #117 Colgate
vs. #123 Indiana
Quad 4: #161-353
W vs. #175 Southern
vs. #180 Maryland
W vs. #283 Western Illinois
W vs. #294 Valparaiso
vs. #299 Fairleigh Dickinson
W vs. #321 Eastern Illinois
AWAY
Quad 1: #1-75
at #4 Purdue
L at #10 Tennessee
at #19 Wisconsin
at #35 Ohio State
at #46 Northwestern
at #65 Iowa
at #66 Michigan
Quad 2: #76-135
W at #77 Rutgers
at #83 Michigan State
Quad 3: #136-240
at #144 Penn State
at #180 Maryland
NEUTRAL
Quad 1: #1-50
W vs. #17 FAU (New York, NY)
Quad 2: #51-100
vs. #90 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
So, I think this team will have to continue to be #RoadWarriors even more than in past years to get a really great seed! And I certainly believe they can be. We REALLY need to avoid home losses to anyone not named Purdue, and I think a lot of those Quad 1 road wins look very winnable with the way we have played so far.
However, as you can see some things can change to help us out. It would be really nice if Rutgers and MSU could get back into Quad 1 territory for those road games. I also do not want to be playing MSU at home with a Quad 3 loss on the line.
As others have said repeatedly, too ... win Braggin' Rights or die trying. If for NO other reason than that could easily be a black mark on our resume if we lose to those losers.
HOME
Quad 1: #1-30
L vs. #9 Marquette
vs. #4 Purdue
Quad 2: #31-75
vs. #46 Northwestern
vs. #65 Iowa
vs. #66 Michigan
vs. #67 Nebraska
Quad 3: #76-160
vs. #77 Rutgers
vs. #83 Michigan State
W vs. #105 Oakland
vs. #115 Minnesota
vs. #117 Colgate
vs. #123 Indiana
Quad 4: #161-353
W vs. #175 Southern
vs. #180 Maryland
W vs. #283 Western Illinois
W vs. #294 Valparaiso
vs. #299 Fairleigh Dickinson
W vs. #321 Eastern Illinois
AWAY
Quad 1: #1-75
at #4 Purdue
L at #10 Tennessee
at #19 Wisconsin
at #35 Ohio State
at #46 Northwestern
at #65 Iowa
at #66 Michigan
Quad 2: #76-135
W at #77 Rutgers
at #83 Michigan State
Quad 3: #136-240
at #144 Penn State
at #180 Maryland
NEUTRAL
Quad 1: #1-50
W vs. #17 FAU (New York, NY)
Quad 2: #51-100
vs. #90 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
So, I think this team will have to continue to be #RoadWarriors even more than in past years to get a really great seed! And I certainly believe they can be. We REALLY need to avoid home losses to anyone not named Purdue, and I think a lot of those Quad 1 road wins look very winnable with the way we have played so far.
However, as you can see some things can change to help us out. It would be really nice if Rutgers and MSU could get back into Quad 1 territory for those road games. I also do not want to be playing MSU at home with a Quad 3 loss on the line.
As others have said repeatedly, too ... win Braggin' Rights or die trying. If for NO other reason than that could easily be a black mark on our resume if we lose to those losers.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I know they're struggling now, but I expect michigan state to be quad 1 before it's over
The two Maryland games really scare me. They seem to overperform against us for some reason.
Still don't understand why they don't just use the NET to make a WAB/SOR type metric that would weight each game accordingly. They don't have to seed straight off of it but I imagine it would make the process much simpler and more objective.
This year I want to track how much NET rankings can move in conference.
In my head, it makes since that rankings wouldn't move much if everyone is beating each other up. Like if #65 Iowa beats #47 Northwestern, then loses to #77 Rutgers then they really wouldn't move up much would they?
That's why it is so important to win non-conference games. Instead of MSU being a top 5 Quad 1A type game which is ok to lose and huge to win, they are hovering around 80 and that really hurts the entire conference. So once we are locked into B1G play, our ceiling is limited since we have only 3 in the top 20, 5 in the top 50, and 10 in the top 100 (NET).
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I think it's fairer to say that the non-con games determine the collective NET of the B1G as a whole. Then games within the conference are kind of "zero-sum" - to use @jrichisamazing 's example, Iowa would move up and Northwestern would move down in the first game, and then Iowa would move back down and Rutgers would move up in the 2nd. So once we get to January, any team that climbs into or out of Quad 1 will be doing it at the expense of another conference team.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, I have no evidence for this but I always assumed that the later it gets in the season, the less a team moves up or down? No real idea, though. However, look at the movement from two (currently) bottom tier Big Ten teams beating cupcakes yesterday:
Maryland 105, Alcorn State 65. Maryland goes from #180 --> #153.
Minnesota 101, IUPUI 65. Minnesota goes from #115 --> #97.
So those results alone pushed a home win vs. Maryland from a Quad 4 to a Quad 3 and a Big Ten Tournament (neutral) win vs. Minnesota from a Quad 3 to a Quad 2.
Almost ... to extent our noncon opponents do really well or poorly in their conferences will adjust our noncon sos and net. and likewise bigten net but conf nets probabably dont change much
Couple things.
I think the math supports your first assertion.
I think it's easier to move more places the lower a team starts.
While the conference as a whole might be some average level, I suspect that who you play once, and where those games are, make a difference.
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