Bracketology
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I think our lack of Quad 1 wins will set us back a bit unfortunately… think we end up in the 3-5 range if we finish say.. 9-3? We might actually end up being that 4 seed that is “underseeded”, which is different..
If we finish 9-3 we are probably getting a 3 seed
Impossible to say at this point, obviously, but if we finish 9-3, I would expect us to be closer to a 5 than a 3.
Assuming those three losses are @MSU, @Wisc, and @Purdue, that would leave us with very few good wins. Our best being FAU and MSU. If we lose a game besides those three, we've likely added another Q2 or Q3 loss to our resume.
Oops..Meant *home vs Purdue. Not @Purdue.
And I should amend to say if OSU and/or Iowa stay in the top 75, those wouldn't be bad losses. But either way, if we get 3 more losses this year, the best case scenario would probably still mean a losing record against Q1 and an additional Q2 or Q3 loss.
Anyway, let's just keep it under 3 losses so we don't have to worry about it.
D
Don't want to be on 4 line, either 3 or 5.
23-8 with a top 12-13 team in the metrics would have a great shot at a 3
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I would agree. In that scenario, the results of the B1G tourney might have some relatively high sway in leaning closer to a 3 or being a solid 4. 23-8 regular season, IMO, would get you a 4 seed at worst. Win a pair of games in the B1G tourney (25-9), I think 3 is almost closer to a lock. In any event, a lot of basketball to still be played.
I won’t have much confidence in this team if we don’t win at least one of Wisconsin or Purdue. You have to win some big games at some point.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Glad to know that your confidence in this team hinges on exactly two games. Your confidence has no bearing on the seeding as discussed.
TheDukeUIUC
- Twin Cities, MN
You can make the argument that if we don't win one of those games or @MSU our best win might be MSU at home by the end of the season. The FAU win doesn't have the shine it did when it happened. We would have lost the rest of our Quad 1 games to prove we have a shot against the best teams when tourney time comes.
Glad to know that your confidence in this team hinges on exactly two games. Your confidence has no bearing on the seeding as discussed.
Yes our resume is less than stellar at the moment. But other teams are going to continue to lose too. They put up a statistic during the Northwestern game top ten teams are only winning about 41% of the time on the road this year.
It took 10-13 second half 3 pt shooting and us smoking a lot of layups to even get to OT. Once we get TJ back playing at an AA level, and if we can get 10ish minutes from Amani without a huge drop off to spell Quincy and Coleman, we will be a very tough team to beat.
It took 10-13 second half 3 pt shooting and us smoking a lot of layups to even get to OT. Once we get TJ back playing at an AA level, and if we can get 10ish minutes from Amani without a huge drop off to spell Quincy and Coleman, we will be a very tough team to beat.
I don't know. Happy to be proven wrong but I don't see it, unless, we make a little run in the BTT.
Over the last two tournaments, only one three seed has had fewer than 25 wins - Baylor last year had 23. But they had 11 Q1 wins and 0 Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses.
In the last two years, no 3 seed has had fewer than 8 Q1 wins. We would need to win out in our regular season Q1 games plus pick up a Q1 win in the BTT to get to 8.
But again, if we don't have any more Q1 losses, that means we would be adding 3 Q2 and Q3 losses. Giving us 4 total Q2 and Q3 losses. No 3 seed in the last 2 years has had more than 3 combined losses in Q2 and Q3. And 5 out of 8 have had 1 or fewer.
The only metric where we would really profile as a 3 seed is NET and maybe Kenpom. The average NET ranking for 3 seeds is 15 and right now we're at 13. But what happens to that ranking if we add 3 more losses?
I'm an Illinois fan, so of course I'm worried about the 1/100,000 chances of getting last in the conference
the national
- the Front Range
Those are fair points but you have to also look at the field this year. A lot of teams are losing (Az being the most recent example losing at Oregon st). This year has a lot of parody, which is why a team like Wisc can be projected as a 3 (or 2 per Joey brackets) and Iowa state can be projected as a 3. See below for sources:
(https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/wisconsin-badgers/bracketology)
(https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-state-cyclones/bracketology)
This season is somewhat a pretty big parody . . . But there is much more parity in college basketball this year than I can ever remember.
the national
- the Front Range
7 Q1 wins will get you a good rating
Interestingly last year all of the top 10 NET teams were seeded 1-4 in the tournament. 12 of the top 16 NET teams were 1-4 seeds. The only top 16 NET teams that weren't seeded 4 or above were...
Saint Mary's NET 11 (5 seed)
FAU NET 13 (9 seed)
San Diego State NET 14 (5 seed)
and Duke NET 16 (5 seed)
Not that I believe in the NET for ranking teams, but the committee seems to. And we are currently NET 13. Pretty much guaranteed a top 4 seed.
Saint Mary's NET 11 (5 seed)
FAU NET 13 (9 seed)
San Diego State NET 14 (5 seed)
and Duke NET 16 (5 seed)
Not that I believe in the NET for ranking teams, but the committee seems to. And we are currently NET 13. Pretty much guaranteed a top 4 seed.
Not trying to be argumentative or contrarian but why would we be guaranteed a top 4 seed as the 13th ranked team when last year's 13th ranked team was a 9 seed?
My takeaway from the data you provided is that 1-10 are guaranteed to be top 4 seeds. But 11-16 are actually unlikely to be a top 4 seed. (More nuanced than that, of course.)
I assumed he was referring to the officiating...
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
If we finish 9-3 but beat Purdue at home, so the losses are like at OSU, at Wisconsin and at Iowa, we would have no more losses worse than Quad 1 and multiple more Quad 1 wins. That’s still a great resume, IMO.
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