Discussion is good. I think the FAU case was the committee wasn't convinced with their record/competition. FAU played 1 P5 conference team last year and that was a really bad Florida team. Only 1 p5 team in the top 16 didn't get a top 4 seed Duke. lol. And they had 9 losses.
Bracketology
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@Fighter of the Nightman
Yeah, I think beating Purdue and @MSU/@Wisconsin + only losing to our three other Q1 games would be our best shot at a 3 seed if we finish 9-3. But we'd still only have 4 Q1 wins in that scenario. Solid resume but it would 100% be an outlier compared to past 3 seeds. Which was my original point. 3 losses would make a 3 seed a long shot, I would think.
I'd really like to see us finish 10-2 to remove any doubt. And I think that's totally realistic.
Yeah, I think beating Purdue and @MSU/@Wisconsin + only losing to our three other Q1 games would be our best shot at a 3 seed if we finish 9-3. But we'd still only have 4 Q1 wins in that scenario. Solid resume but it would 100% be an outlier compared to past 3 seeds. Which was my original point. 3 losses would make a 3 seed a long shot, I would think.
Absolutely. I think the point we're both making is in that 11-16 range, other factors start to come into play (what conference are you in, how many wins/losses, quality of wins/losses, etc.).
I'd really like to see us finish 10-2 to remove any doubt. And I think that's totally realistic.
Just wanted to say it's a lot more fun arguing over how to get a 3 seed, instead of trying to figure out how to claw our way into the tournament during the Groce years.
But I agree with @21ChampaignSt, our resume is an outlier compared to our advanced metrics. Our losses are close and competitive, and we've destroyed some decent teams. But if you did a blind resume test against many of our peers, ours would look pretty ugly. It's time to go on a big winning streak and get the resume looking good.
But I agree with @21ChampaignSt, our resume is an outlier compared to our advanced metrics. Our losses are close and competitive, and we've destroyed some decent teams. But if you did a blind resume test against many of our peers, ours would look pretty ugly. It's time to go on a big winning streak and get the resume looking good.
Maryland up to #81 in the updated NET. Turns into a Quad 2 loss if they can get & stay in the top 75, and our game in College Park would be Quad 1.
Ohio State is #68, Iowa #58.
We could have as many as 5 Quad 1 & 3 Quad 2 games left. If that were the case our records in each quad would be… 5-5 quad 1 & 5-2 Quad 2 with 0 Q3/4 losses…. 10-7 in Quad 1/2 is probably good enough for a top 3 seed this year.
Ohio State is #68, Iowa #58.
We could have as many as 5 Quad 1 & 3 Quad 2 games left. If that were the case our records in each quad would be… 5-5 quad 1 & 5-2 Quad 2 with 0 Q3/4 losses…. 10-7 in Quad 1/2 is probably good enough for a top 3 seed this year.
I have a problem with NET rankings right now
Take for example Drake who is 50. Their best win is Indiana St so they are 1-0 in quad 1 games or Florida who is 39 0-6 quad 1 games (lost bad to Ole Miss)
Iowa, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Maryland have a worse NET than those two teams. The teams I listed all have more quality wins
The problem is we use NET rankings to determine good and bad loses but there are wins/loses that you don’t get enough or get too much credit for
Take for example Drake who is 50. Their best win is Indiana St so they are 1-0 in quad 1 games or Florida who is 39 0-6 quad 1 games (lost bad to Ole Miss)
Iowa, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Maryland have a worse NET than those two teams. The teams I listed all have more quality wins
The problem is we use NET rankings to determine good and bad loses but there are wins/loses that you don’t get enough or get too much credit for
Drake also has neutral site wins over Akron and Nevada and a road win at SIU. Their worst loss by NET ranking is at Belmont, who is currently at 161. All 4 of their losses are Quad 3 losses, 3 on the road, one at a neutral site.
The reason that Florida is ranked higher is because all 6 of those losses you mentioned are Quad 1, including a road loss to the Ole Miss team that is 17-3 and currently 57 in NET.
Here are notes about the teams you mentioned:
-Iowa: Best win is a home win over Nebraska, which is currently a Quad 2 win. Have 2 Quad 3 losses, both at home to Michigan and Maryland.
-Northwestern: Have 4 Quad 1 wins, all at home against teams currently within the top 25 of NET. The Chicago State loss is still a Quad 4 loss and will likely be a huge anchor on their NET ranking.
-Ole Miss: Best win was yesterday at #45 Texas A&M. Prior to that was last month at #70 UCF. Worst loss is at #94 LSU.
-Maryland: Currently 3-6 overall in Quad 1 and 2 games (2-4 in Quad 1, 1-2 in Quad 2). Only wins in those quads were the road wins at Illinois and Iowa and home against Nebraska. NET ranking is hindered by neutral court losses early in the season to Davidson and UAB, which are currently Quad 3.
The reason that Florida is ranked higher is because all 6 of those losses you mentioned are Quad 1, including a road loss to the Ole Miss team that is 17-3 and currently 57 in NET.
Here are notes about the teams you mentioned:
-Iowa: Best win is a home win over Nebraska, which is currently a Quad 2 win. Have 2 Quad 3 losses, both at home to Michigan and Maryland.
-Northwestern: Have 4 Quad 1 wins, all at home against teams currently within the top 25 of NET. The Chicago State loss is still a Quad 4 loss and will likely be a huge anchor on their NET ranking.
-Ole Miss: Best win was yesterday at #45 Texas A&M. Prior to that was last month at #70 UCF. Worst loss is at #94 LSU.
-Maryland: Currently 3-6 overall in Quad 1 and 2 games (2-4 in Quad 1, 1-2 in Quad 2). Only wins in those quads were the road wins at Illinois and Iowa and home against Nebraska. NET ranking is hindered by neutral court losses early in the season to Davidson and UAB, which are currently Quad 3.
I agree with what you are saying but the NET ranking gives way to much credit to quad 1 loses and punished way too much for a bad loss. It is better to lose by 30 to a quad 1 team than 1 to a quad 4 team
On a neutral court who you would you rather play Florida Drake Ole Miss or Northwestern?
I probably pick Florida as the team I would like to play but if you go by NET they have the best NET and NW has the worse
I wouldn’t want to play NW or Maryland showing that they can beat really good teams
AP poll is straight garbage.
Where would u rank us? I am critical of NET but AP coaches NET Kenpom all converge for us
For example Northwestern probably will be ranked or receiving votes NET 61 Kenpom 47 how do you make sense of that. Are they 6 seed or should they be 12/bubble team if you go off the different metrics
I think you just proved my point, didn't you?
3-3 with a tight road loss to a really really good team and a barnburner road loss to a pretty solid team... i mean, one of those 6 games was pitiful i guess, but that .500 stretch probably isnt indicative of a .500 stretch over any future set of games.
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