Bracketology

Dan · Jan 29, 2024

Illinois #14 in the NET Rankings
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Illinois a 4 seed in the Bracket Matrix
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Big Ten Tournament Generator
https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

Second place is 1st loser · Jan 29, 2024

Dan said:
Illinois #14 in the NET Rankings
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Illinois a 4 seed in the Bracket Matrix
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Big Ten Tournament Generator
https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

Makes sense. Net ranking is following the projected seeding.

ChiIllini75 · Jan 29, 2024

I'm struggling with how good this team is. Yes they have looked really good at times, but against bad competition. When we stepped up we have just missed or worse. The best win being Fla Atlantic is not aging well.

Second place is 1st loser · Jan 29, 2024

ChiIllini75 said:
I'm struggling with how good this team is. Yes they have looked really good at times, but against bad competition. When we stepped up we have just missed or worse. The best win being Fla Atlantic is not aging well.

I think that we all have to cut this team some slack. To say that it's been an unusual year is an understatement. They've had to readjust mixing and matching to fill roles three times this year.

1) Beginning of the season and we were figuring things out.

2)Post TJ, when new roles again had to be defined and guys took minutes and stepped up

3)TJ back, guys roles reduced(Ty specifically) and clearly TJ has taken those minutes and struggled.

This is all being done on the fly and let's face it, Coleman is being exposures on the post and they're even implementing a zone to address it.

Brad has been incredible this year with what he's had to navigate. Not sure that anyone knows what the ceiling really is because while looking dominant vs some average teams, we really don't have a signature win.

fatboyslim · Jan 29, 2024

ChiIllini75 said:
I'm struggling with how good this team is. Yes they have looked really good at times, but against bad competition. When we stepped up we have just missed or worse. The best win being Fla Atlantic is not aging well.

You could say this about every team sans Purdue and UConn and even Purdue has a loss to a team we lost to and got smoked by Nebraska. We are where we’re supposed to be considering everything we’ve gone through with Shannon’s suspension.

Iloveorangekoolaid · Jan 29, 2024

fatboyslim said:
You could say this about every team sans Purdue and UConn and even Purdue has a loss to a team we lost to and got smoked by Nebraska. We are where we’re supposed to be considering everything we’ve gone through with Shannon’s suspension.

UConn lost to Seton Hall by 15 before their current winning streak. Everyone is vulnerable. Time to start stacking wins and go on a run.

fatboyslim · Jan 29, 2024

Iloveorangekoolaid said:
UConn lost to Seton Hall by 15 before their current winning streak. Everyone is vulnerable. Time to start stacking wins and go on a run.

That was over a month ago and UConn only has 2 losses. My point about UConn and Purdue is they don't lose or haven't lost in a while. They have separated themselves from the other teams right now.

727ill · Jan 29, 2024

ChiIllini75 said:
I'm struggling with how good this team is. Yes they have looked really good at times, but against bad competition. When we stepped up we have just missed or worse. The best win being Fla Atlantic is not aging well.

This is just not true. FAU is currently has the best record in the AAC and they are likely going to win that conference given the downfall of Memphis. They are still top-30 Kenpom and NET.

21ChampaignSt · Jan 29, 2024

727ill said:
This is just not true. FAU is currently has the best record in the AAC and they are likely going to win that conference given the downfall of Memphis. They are still top-30 Kenpom and NET.

I mean, this isn't to say FAU isn't going to be a quality win for us, but when we played them they were ranked 12th in Torvik. Since then, they are ranked 78th. So, hard to say their arrow is pointing up.

I hope when the dust settles we aren't looking back at them as our best win of the year. (I don't think we will be.)

mysterio2525 · Jan 29, 2024

21ChampaignSt said:
I mean, this isn't to say FAU isn't going to be a quality win for us, but when we played them they were ranked 12th in Torvik. Since then, they are ranked 78th. So, hard to say their arrow is pointing up.

I hope when the dust settles we aren't looking back at them as our best win of the year. (I don't think we will be.)

I agree. FAU is also playing with fire. They are down in every game I see and definitely playing to their competition. Credit to them that they do seem to pull out the win but any loss they have going forward will hurt more than a power 5 teams loss

ChiIllini75 · Jan 29, 2024

I hear the feedback and want to agree. I also can't think of the truly good teams we have beaten aside from FAU and maybe Michigan State (questionable). Not saying they can't lose, but the teams that have been noted also have several big time P5 wins on the resume. Yes Purdue took a tough loss, but they wrecked house against really quality teams too. I'd feel much better if we had closed the deal against Tennessee or Marquette that's for sure.

EyeoftheIllini · Jan 29, 2024

ChiIllini75 said:
I hear the feedback and want to agree. I also can't think of the truly good teams we have beaten aside from FAU and maybe Michigan State (questionable). Not saying they can't lose, but the teams that have been noted also have several big time P5 wins on the resume. Yes Purdue took a tough loss, but they wrecked house against really quality teams too. I'd feel much better if we had closed the deal against Tennessee or Marquette that's for sure.

And didn’t Purdue beat TN and Marquette?

grue2 · Jan 29, 2024

727ill said:
This is just not true. FAU is currently has the best record in the AAC and they are likely going to win that conference given the downfall of Memphis. They are still top-30 Kenpom and NET.

The American isn't the conference is was a few years ago. I'd put it behind the MVC in general (the MVC lower half seems particularly bad this year). FAUs early conference schedule was pretty weak, and they have still struggled. If FAU holds on to wins the conference, they may be the only bid. If SMU (or Charlotte?) pull it out, then FAU may not even get an at large bid -- their failing to win the conference is likely due to several bad losses. They may fall just on the wrong side of the bubble.

Old Farm Illini · Jan 29, 2024

ChiIllini75 said:
I'm struggling with how good this team is. Yes they have looked really good at times, but against bad competition. When we stepped up we have just missed or worse. The best win being Fla Atlantic is not aging well.

If feels that way, but looking at the NET rankings you could see that a lot of teams have a quad 3 loss. Heck, Duke is 0-3 in Quad 2 games. If we didn't have that Maryland loss, there would barely be a blemish on our record. We still have a lot to prove, but we're really not in bad shape. Most of us want to move up to a potential 3 seed. That would be ideal, but I think we should be pretty satisfied heading into the post-season even if we end up as a 4 or 5 seed. At this point, I just want the chemistry to improve and get Shannon to look even remotely like his old self. Perhaps that's asking for too much given what he's going through.

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 29, 2024

Some NET Rankings to keep an eye on for opponents that are hovering around a cutoff:

#25 Michigan State ... While our game in East Lansing will be Quad 1 regardless, we need them to stay in the top 30 for our victory in Champaign to remain Quad 1. Cheer for Sparty except when we play them...

#57 Iowa ... While Iowa is not currently in danger of falling out of the top 75 (i.e., for now our game in Champaign is Quad 2 and in Iowa City is Quad 1), they could IDEALLY get into the top 50, making a potential rematch in the BTT Quad 1. Given how the standings are shaping up, it seems likely we could run into them.

#59 Northwestern ... See Iowa note, except we would probably play them late enough in the BTT that it might not matter.

#60 Nebraska ... See Iowa comment.

#68 Ohio State ... Hoping the Buckeyes can right the ship JUST enough to lose to us tomorrow and yet remain in the top 75 until the end of the season. They are one of five remaining Quad 1 opportunities, as of today.

#81 Maryland ... It would be quite nice if the Terps could sneak into the top 75, without sweeping us, of course! Would make our home loss to them less of a big deal (we'd simply now be 3-1 vs. Quad 2 teams ... not bad), and it would make our opportunity at revenge in College Park Quad 1.

#92 Minnesota ... As of now, they are a Quad 2 opponent if we met them in the BTT ... but only if they stay in the top 100.

#97 Indiana ... See Minnesota.

#99 Rutgers ... See Minnesota and Indiana.

#101 Michigan ... Technically see Minnesota/Indiana/Rutgers, but frankly if we are that worried at this point, we have bigger problems!

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 29, 2024

ChiIllini75 said:
I'm struggling with how good this team is. Yes they have looked really good at times, but against bad competition. When we stepped up we have just missed or worse. The best win being Fla Atlantic is not aging well.

Not sure I agree with this as far as an "eye test" goes, though. Regardless of how FAU continued to fare, they looked really good vs. us and we looked better ... both commentators and a ton of third parties on social media said the same. Similarly, while we lost at Tennessee, I did not think we looked bad. We poo-poo Northwestern, but the fact is most people view them as good ... they beat #1 Purdue at home and, well, us! And the fact is so many different things could have led to us sweeping the season series by demolishing them at home (without TSJ) and beating them in a close game in regulation in a hostile environment in Evanston. The Purdue loss, again, contained a lot of us looking really good ... but how much can you take away from a huge road test like that without Terence?

And then yes, we have demolished a lot of bad competition - looking particularly dominant vs. Missouri, in particular (possibly our best performance). There is a reason a lot of people are still ranking us in the top 15 with 5 losses and a 3-3 record in the last month, and it's because the pieces are there and we are actually better than our record, IMO. However, I will agree with the following:

1. For the time being, we are getting by on the "eye test" and/or our high ceiling. Now is the time to start stacking wins.
2. These next 8 games just might tell us what kind of season we can have.

Iloveorangekoolaid · Jan 29, 2024

fatboyslim said:
That was over a month ago and UConn only has 2 losses. My point about UConn and Purdue is they don't lose or haven't lost in a while. They have separated themselves from the other teams right now.

I mean the ACC is terrible this year but UNC hasn’t lost since the middle of December. I feel like all 3 are nearly locks for 1 seeds already. I wasn’t trying to argue our resume to theirs, more so point out that nearly every top 10 team has a bad loss a this point either losing to a bad team or a good team but a lot of points.

ChiIllini75 · Jan 29, 2024

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Not sure I agree with this as far as an "eye test" goes, though. Regardless of how FAU continued to fare, they looked really good vs. us and we looked better ... both commentators and a ton of third parties on social media said the same. Similarly, while we lost at Tennessee, I did not think we looked bad. We poo-poo Northwestern, but the fact is most people view them as good ... they beat #1 Purdue at home and, well, us! And the fact is so many different things could have led to us sweeping the season series by demolishing them at home (without TSJ) and beating them in a close game in regulation in a hostile environment in Evanston. The Purdue loss, again, contained a lot of us looking really good ... but how much can you take away from a huge road test like that without Terence?

And then yes, we have demolished a lot of bad competition - looking particularly dominant vs. Missouri, in particular (possibly our best performance). There is a reason a lot of people are still ranking us in the top 15 with 5 losses and a 3-3 record in the last month, and it's because the pieces are there and we are actually better than our record, IMO. However, I will agree with the following:

1. For the time being, we are getting by on the "eye test" and/or our high ceiling. Now is the time to start stacking wins.
2. These next 8 games just might tell us what kind of season we can have.

I think you are hitting what I am struggling with. The eye test has looked great and yet I keep hedging if its fools gold because of who we've looked greatest against. With the B10 down pretty bad this year closing out the slate looking 85% as good as we did against Mezzo would make me feel much more comfortable. No argument about the NET, etc. simply how do they look moving forward.

As it stands this last month has been choppy to say the least with the sag on Ty, the attack of our post D and the double on Domask causing problems that I'm hoping came early enough for us to adjust and catch a second wind. It also will likely look better the longer TSJ is back and in rhythm again.

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 29, 2024

ChiIllini75 said:
I think you are hitting what I am struggling with. The eye test has looked great and yet I keep hedging if its fools gold because of who we've looked greatest against. With the B10 down pretty bad this year closing out the slate looking 85% as good as we did against Mezzo would make me feel much more comfortable. No argument about the NET, etc. simply how do they look moving forward.

As it stands this last month has been choppy to say the least with the sag on Ty, the attack of our post D and the double on Domask causing problems that I'm hoping came early enough for us to adjust and catch a second wind. It also will likely look better the longer TSJ is back and in rhythm again.

Yep, it is worth remembering that our 2020-21 team started out with a lot of hype and then had the following streak of games to also wind up 6-3 in Big Ten play and also with 5 losses in mid- to late January:

--- Illini are ranked #13 but lose at Rutgers and fall to #18)
12/26 - (ILL #18) W 69-60 vs. Indiana. WAY too close for comfort and needed an Ayo dagger.
1/2 - (ILL #15) W 66-58 vs. Purdue. Again, I remember thinking why can't we blow these teams out?!
1/7 - (ILL #12) W 81-56 at Northwestern. This one was close in the first half, and it looked like we finally clicked when we pulled away.
1/10 - (ILL #12) L 66-63 vs. Maryland. Enter the annual T*rps meltdown.

1/16 - (ILL #14) L 87-81 vs. #21 Ohio State. SUCH a frustrating game if you will remember!

We then fell to #22 in the country, we were 9-5 overall and 5-3 in the Big Ten and we beat Penn State at home in the next game in a bit of a "Thank God this isn't a FULL meltdown yet" type game.

It was only when we beat #7 Iowa exactly 3 years ago to the day in Champaign that we looked like we had this thing figured out. We went on a 7-game winning streak before the loss in East Lansing, and we proceeded to end the season with three road wins over ranked teams. Obviously we all want a better NCAAT showing than that squad had, but I could seriously see this team going on a similar type of run. I think if TJ never gets suspended/this situation never comes up, we have probably only lost at Purdue since Braggin' Rights and nobody is worried.

Bigtex · Jan 29, 2024

Old Farm Illini said:
If feels that way, but looking at the NET rankings you could see that a lot of teams have a quad 3 loss. Heck, Duke is 0-3 in Quad 2 games. If we didn't have that Maryland loss, there would barely be a blemish on our record. We still have a lot to prove, but we're really not in bad shape. Most of us want to move up to a potential 3 seed. That would be ideal, but I think we should be pretty satisfied heading into the post-season even if we end up as a 4 or 5 seed. At this point, I just want the chemistry to improve and get Shannon to look even remotely like his old self. Perhaps that's asking for too much given what he's going through.

Beat Maryland at home and no blemishes
Btw everyone is talking about top teams losing on the road / what about losses at home
like last year not good Q1

mysterio2525 · Jan 29, 2024

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yep, it is worth remembering that our 2020-21 team started out with a lot of hype and then had the following streak of games to also wind up 6-3 in Big Ten play and also with 5 losses in mid- to late January:

--- Illini are ranked #13 but lose at Rutgers and fall to #18)
12/26 - (ILL #18) W 69-60 vs. Indiana. WAY too close for comfort and needed an Ayo dagger.
1/2 - (ILL #15) W 66-58 vs. Purdue. Again, I remember thinking why can't we blow these teams out?!
1/7 - (ILL #12) W 81-56 at Northwestern. This one was close in the first half, and it looked like we finally clicked when we pulled away.
1/10 - (ILL #12) L 66-63 vs. Maryland. Enter the annual T*rps meltdown.
1/16 - (ILL #14) L 87-81 vs. #21 Ohio State. SUCH a frustrating game if you will remember!

We then fell to #22 in the country, we were 9-5 overall and 5-3 in the Big Ten and we beat Penn State at home in the next game in a bit of a "Thank God this isn't a FULL meltdown yet" type game.

It was only when we beat #7 Iowa exactly 3 years ago to the day in Champaign that we looked like we had this thing figured out. We went on a 7-game winning streak before the loss in East Lansing, and we proceeded to end the season with three road wins over ranked teams. Obviously we all want a better NCAAT showing than that squad had, but I could seriously see this team going on a similar type of run. I think if TJ never gets suspended/this situation never comes up, we have probably only lost at Purdue since Braggin' Rights and nobody is worried.

Momentum is a thing. We are in the awkward period of getting TJ back, teams in the big ten scouting us well, Brad maybe realizing he needs to go use the bench a little more, and just some crap luck (missing layups).

If we can shore up the defense a little then I think it's all systems go! If TJ comes back to form then that's might be all it takes...I believe we were top 25 kenpom defense before the suspension

TyKFactus · Jan 29, 2024

Just took a peak at Duke’s resume just because I didn’t really remember them beating anyone crazy. Illinois’ and Duke’s resume is VERY similar imo.

Edit: I’d go to say its even worse tbh.

IlliniFaninHoosierLand · Jan 29, 2024

TyKFactus said:
Just took a peak at Duke’s resume just because I didn’t really remember them beating anyone crazy. Illinois’ and Duke’s resume is VERY similar imo.

Edit: I’d go to say its even worse tbh.

Illinois is 2-4 in Quad 1. Duke is 4-1 with the only loss at home vs. Arizona.

Illinois is 3-0 in Quad 2. Duke is 0-3 but those are where all 3 of their remaining losses are.

In terms of the different quads, the Illinois loss to Maryland is still the worst since it is a Quad 3 loss.

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 29, 2024

IlliniFaninHoosierLand said:
Illinois is 2-4 in Quad 1. Duke is 4-1 with the only loss at home vs. Arizona.

Illinois is 3-0 in Quad 2. Duke is 0-3 but those are where all 3 of their remaining losses are.

In terms of the different quads, the Illinois loss to Maryland is still the worst since it is a Quad 3 loss.

I thought I saw once that the Committee looks at “good” results (Q1 and Q2) and “bad” results (Q3 and Q4). So another way to look at it is Illinois is 5-4 and Duke is 4-4 in games vs. “good” opponents.

However, I’m under the impression that Q1 and Q4 results are seen as the extremes that act as tiebreakers. So Duke gets the edge. But I think some here are underrating our good Q2 record. REALLY wish we’d gotten past Maryland.

727ill · Jan 30, 2024

Latest bracket from Lunardi has us as a 4 seed with Dayton as a 5 in Brooklyn. I'd say if we are a 4/5 that's the best case scenario. Northwestern beat Dayton at home although it was early in the year.

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