Bracketology

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#7      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
We'd have an interesting path in the BTT if you leave all of the results in the simulator unchanged.

1. We'd play the winner of #10 Ohio State and #7 Minnesota at 5:30 pm on Friday.
2. If we won, we'd play at 2:30 pm on Saturday vs. the eventual winner of #3 Nebraska vs. either #6 Wisconsin, #11 Penn State or #14 Michigan.
3. The top half of the bracket we'd maybe play Sunday would include #1 Purdue, #4 Northwestern and #5 Michigan State.

Personally, I'd take that. The only downside is we'd have the two teams most likely to have a crowd advantage (Minnesota and Wisconsin) in our path, but I don't think that would bother our Everyday Guys. Although, I am curious how many Illini fans would be there if we made it to Saturday, as we travel well. All in all, I would gladly take these matchups, though!
 
#8      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
This is the first year I can remember in recent memory that the top 4 teams are so well clear of everyone else that it feels like the 1 seeds are locked in as of now.

For example, Purdue lost yesterday and there's not even a question that they're still a couple losses clear of dropping at all.

After Purdue, UConn, Houston and Arizona, who even is #5 right now? Tennessee maybe? If they run the table and Arizona slips up a couple more times, then I could possibly see a flip there, but otherwise, it feels like the 1 seeds are locked in, and Tennessee is fairly solid as a #2. After that, it's a mix of teams with good resumes and mid metrics (like Kansas, Marquette San Diego State and Baylor), and teams with good metrics and mid resumes (like Illinois, Alabama and Auburn).
 
#9      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Fighter of the Nightman said:
We'd have an interesting path in the BTT if you leave all of the results in the simulator unchanged.

1. We'd play the winner of #10 Ohio State and #7 Minnesota at 5:30 pm on Friday.
2. If we won, we'd play at 2:30 pm on Saturday vs. the eventual winner of #3 Nebraska vs. either #6 Wisconsin, #11 Penn State or #14 Michigan.
3. The top half of the bracket we'd maybe play Sunday would include #1 Purdue, #4 Northwestern and #5 Michigan State.

Personally, I'd take that. The only downside is we'd have the two teams most likely to have a crowd advantage (Minnesota and Wisconsin) in our path, but I don't think that would bother our Everyday Guys. Although, I am curious how many Illini fans would be there if we made it to Saturday, as we travel well. All in all, I would gladly take these matchups, though!
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Fun fact, if the simulated results hold except Illinois beats Purdue, Illinois would be the 1 seed.
 
#10      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Piotyr said:
Fun fact, if the simulated results hold except Illinois beats Purdue, Illinois would be the 1 seed.
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I am not 100% convinced that Purdue doesn't pick up another loss before heading to Champaign, either. Don't get me wrong, they should win all of those games, but ... for how good they are, they really do seem to have it in them to just be totally off and drop a head scratcher.

- They have historically struggled with Rutgers, but I expect that to be their "get right" game after losing in Columbus, lol ... so the Scarlet Knights are likely in trouble.
- They should beat Michigan handily on the road, but I guess you never know.
- I would not count MSU out in West Lafayette if Purdue has an off day.

Then their final two are at Illinois and vs. Wisconsin. Either way, I think to win the league we probably have to win out.
 
#12      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
Piotyr said:
This is the first year I can remember in recent memory that the top 4 teams are so well clear of everyone else that it feels like the 1 seeds are locked in as of now.

For example, Purdue lost yesterday and there's not even a question that they're still a couple losses clear of dropping at all.

After Purdue, UConn, Houston and Arizona, who even is #5 right now? Tennessee maybe? If they run the table and Arizona slips up a couple more times, then I could possibly see a flip there, but otherwise, it feels like the 1 seeds are locked in, and Tennessee is fairly solid as a #2. After that, it's a mix of teams with good resumes and mid metrics (like Kansas, Marquette San Diego State and Baylor), and teams with good metrics and mid resumes (like Illinois, Alabama and Auburn).
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I don't think Arizona is locked in. They don't have another Q1 game the rest of the regular season. If they take a loss or two and a team like Tennessee or UNC runs the table, or comes close, they certainly have a chance at snagging that last 1 seed.
 
#14      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Some of our remaining games actually have a possibility of moving and either helping or hurting the Quad categorization...

at #99 Penn State (safe Q2 unless PSU falls out of the top 135)
vs. #67 Iowa (Q2 as long as Iowa is top 75)
vs. #77 Minnesota (Q3 unless Minnesota moves into the top 75)
at #21 Wisconsin (safe Q1 as long as Wisconsin is top 75)
vs. #2 Purdue (safe Q1 as long as Purdue is top 30)
at #67 Iowa (Q1 as long as Iowa is top 75)

So, our Iowa and Minnesota games could fluctuate. As things stand now, those matchups represent a Quad 2 opportunity vs. Iowa this coming Saturday, a Quad 3 game vs. Minnesota at home and a Quad 1 opportunity in Iowa City to end the season.

At #67, Iowa is not THAT close to falling out of the top 75, and the win vs. Wisconsin helped. However, they finish at MSU, at Illinois. vs. PSU, at NU and vs. Illinois ... that is pretty brutal. I would not be surprised to see them lose 4 of 5 (although they are playing better), so they very well could fall out. We need to sweep Iowa but then hope that they score some upsets!

Conversely, Minnesota has been rising even after having lost 2 of 3. They were #82 and are now up to #77 ... two spots shy of making them a potential Quad 2 opponent at home. They have quite a few winnable games left (e.g., OSU, PSU and Indiana at home), so hopefully they can sneak into the top 75 even after a 30-point blowout loss in Champaign!

Two others to keep an eye on are #64 Ohio State (up from #72 with the upset of Purdue) and #74 Maryland (clinging to that Quad 1 status). OSU will likely only be favored in 1-2 games remaining, but hey ... if they can beat Purdue, they can maybe score some more upsets! Maryland gets Indiana at home, which is nice, but they still have to go to Wisconsin, Rutgers and Penn State.

I know we control our own destiny and it might not be worth it to fret about the results from other teams, but it would be REALLY nice if OSU, Iowa, Minnesota and Maryland could all finish in the top 75. If those teams end up in the top 75 and we can win out or only lose to Wisconsin/Purdue, this group represents a total of two Quad 2 wins and 3 Quad 1 wins we could have on the resume...
 
#15      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Fighter of the Nightman said:
We'd have an interesting path in the BTT if you leave all of the results in the simulator unchanged.

1. We'd play the winner of #10 Ohio State and #7 Minnesota at 5:30 pm on Friday.
2. If we won, we'd play at 2:30 pm on Saturday vs. the eventual winner of #3 Nebraska vs. either #6 Wisconsin, #11 Penn State or #14 Michigan.
3. The top half of the bracket we'd maybe play Sunday would include #1 Purdue, #4 Northwestern and #5 Michigan State.

Personally, I'd take that. The only downside is we'd have the two teams most likely to have a crowd advantage (Minnesota and Wisconsin) in our path, but I don't think that would bother our Everyday Guys. Although, I am curious how many Illini fans would be there if we made it to Saturday, as we travel well. All in all, I would gladly take these matchups, though!
Click to expand...

I wouldn't mind seeing someone like Wisconsin as a #7 seed, then #3 Nebby for 2 more Q1 chances (as long as Nebby can stay in the top 50).

Yeah, Wisconsin would be a tough first game for a 2 seed but it's a win win situation to me. Lose and we get some rest while our seed probably doesn't change. Or win both those games and have a decent chance to jump up a seed line.
 
#16      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
Fighter of the Nightman said:
We'd have an interesting path in the BTT if you leave all of the results in the simulator unchanged.

1. We'd play the winner of #10 Ohio State and #7 Minnesota at 5:30 pm on Friday.
2. If we won, we'd play at 2:30 pm on Saturday vs. the eventual winner of #3 Nebraska vs. either #6 Wisconsin, #11 Penn State or #14 Michigan.
3. The top half of the bracket we'd maybe play Sunday would include #1 Purdue, #4 Northwestern and #5 Michigan State.

Personally, I'd take that. The only downside is we'd have the two teams most likely to have a crowd advantage (Minnesota and Wisconsin) in our path, but I don't think that would bother our Everyday Guys. Although, I am curious how many Illini fans would be there if we made it to Saturday, as we travel well. All in all, I would gladly take these matchups, though!
Click to expand...
It's a bit too early for me to start my annual projected BTT odds by seed (things are very very messy with 6 games remaining. When 3-4 are left the math is far more doable without a full engine). That said, below are the projected won-loss records along with full odds for each B10 team using Pomeroy game odds and the projected seed they'd have in the BTT if they did end the season that way including tiebreaks:

This would result in us getting the 2 seed with the possible run of:
Quarters: Minn or PSU
Semis: Wisky, Neb, or darkhorse Rutgers
Finals: Pur, NW, MSU, or a longshot MD, Iowa, or OSU

That would on paper look like a very nice path. We'll see how it all plays out.

1708369980075.png
 
#17      

Oldskoolkoach

O
Oldskoolkoach
Does B10 tourney harm or hurt a run in the NCA tournament? Last 3 years results


2023
1 Seed - Purdue, 2 Seed - Northwestern, 3 Seed - Indiana, 4 Seed - MSU, 5 Seed - Iowa, 6 Seed - Maryland, 7 Seed - Illinois, 8 Seed - Rutgers
Winner: Purdont 67 (2 highly competitively close games)
Loser: Penn State 65

NCAA Results (B10 Tourney Results)
Purdont - 1st Round Loss as #1 Seed (won B10 Tourney)
Northwestern - 2nd Round Loss to UCLA (Lost in Quarters to PSU)
Indiana - 2nd Round Loss to Miami by 16 (Lost in Semis to PSU)
MSU - Sweet 16 Loss to Kansas State (Lost in Quarters to OSU)
Iowa - 1st Round loss to Auburn (Lost in 2nd Round to OSU)
Maryland - 2nd Round loss to Bama (Lost in Quarters to Indiana)
Illinois - 1st Round loss to Arkansas (Lost in 2nd Round to PSU)
Rutgers - Didn't get in (Penn State did after making B10 tourney run and lost in Sweet 16)

2022
1 Seed - Illinois, 2 Seed - Wisconsin, 3 Seed - Purdue, 4 Seed - Rutgers, 5 Seed - Iowa, 6 Seed - OSU, 7 Seed - MSU, 8 Seed - scUM
Loser - Purdue 66
Winner - Iowa 75

NCAA Results (B10 Tourney Results)
Illinois - 2nd Round loss to Houston as a 4 seed (Lost in Quarters to Indiana)
Wisconsin - 2nd Round loss to Iowa State as a 3 Seed (Lost in Quarters to MSU)
Purdont - Lost in Sweet 16 to St. Peter's as a 3 seed ( Lost in title game)
Rutgers - Lost play-in game to Notre Dame (Lost in Quarters to Iowa)
Iowa - Lost in Round 1 to Richmond as a 5 seed (Won it)
OSU - Lost in Round 2 to Nova as a 7 seed ( Lost in 2nd Round to Penn State)
MSU - Lost in Round 2 to Duke as a 7 seed (Lost in Semis to Purdont)
scUM - Lost in Sweet 16 to Nova as an 11 seed (Lost in 2nd round to Indiana)


2021
1 Seed - Michigan, 2 Seed - Illinois, 3 Seed - Iowa, 4 Seed - Purdue, 5 Seed - OSU, 6 Seed - Wisconsin, 7 Seed - Rutgers, 8 Seed - Maryland
Loser - tOSU - 88
Winner - Illinois - 91

NCAA Results (B10 Tourney Results)
Michigan - Elite Eight as a #1 seed (B10 Semis)
Illinois - We all know
Iowa - Blown out 2nd Round as 2 seed (Lost in Semis to Illinois by 11)
Purdue- Lost 1st Round as a 4 seed (Lost in Quarters by 9 to OSU)
OSU - Lost in 1st Round as a #2 seed by 3 (Lost in the title game to Illini by 3)
Wisconsin - Lost in 2nd Round to #1 Seed Baylor (Lost in Quarters to Iowa)
Rutgers - Lost in 2nd round to Houston (Lost by 22 to Illinois in Quarters)
Maryland - Lost in 2nd Round to Bama by 19 (Lost by 13 in Quarters to scUM)
 
#18      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
Chad Fleck said:
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So best matchups are?

We get to play Akron - coached by Groce in Round 1; South Carolina in round 2 - a team for which BU was associate head coach, Arizona in sweet sixteen - our tournament arch enemy, and Auburn in Elite 8 - coached by Satan himself.
What a draw that would be - and I don't think that the Sleepers guys have any idea of the back stories other than Arizona (kind of).
 
#19      

RabidDawgClassic

RabidDawgClassic
RabidDawgClassic
alaskaillini said:
So best matchups are?

We get to play Akron - coached by Groce in Round 1; South Carolina in round 2 - a team for which BU was associate head coach, Arizona in sweet sixteen - our tournament arch enemy, and Auburn in Elite 8 - coached by Satan himself.
What a draw that would be - and I don't think that the Sleepers guys have any idea of the back stories other than Arizona (kind of).
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Also a BBV reunion in round 2.
 
#20      

eas23

E
eas23
Obviously beat Purdue, but we're getting close to the point where we can talk about a 3 seed without it. I want to get out of that 4 line so badly.
 
#21      

dcenters33

dcenters33
dcenters33
Oldskoolkoach said:
Does B10 tourney harm or hurt a run in the NCA tournament? Last 3 years results


2023
1 Seed - Purdue, 2 Seed - Northwestern, 3 Seed - Indiana, 4 Seed - MSU, 5 Seed - Iowa, 6 Seed - Maryland, 7 Seed - Illinois, 8 Seed - Rutgers
Winner: Purdont 67 (2 highly competitively close games)
Loser: Penn State 65

NCAA Results (B10 Tourney Results)
Purdont - 1st Round Loss as #1 Seed (won B10 Tourney)
Northwestern - 2nd Round Loss to UCLA (Lost in Quarters to PSU)
Indiana - 2nd Round Loss to Miami by 16 (Lost in Semis to PSU)
MSU - Sweet 16 Loss to Kansas State (Lost in Quarters to OSU)
Iowa - 1st Round loss to Auburn (Lost in 2nd Round to OSU)
Maryland - 2nd Round loss to Bama (Lost in Quarters to Indiana)
Illinois - 1st Round loss to Arkansas (Lost in 2nd Round to PSU)
Rutgers - Didn't get in (Penn State did after making B10 tourney run and lost in Sweet 16)

2022
1 Seed - Illinois, 2 Seed - Wisconsin, 3 Seed - Purdue, 4 Seed - Rutgers, 5 Seed - Iowa, 6 Seed - OSU, 7 Seed - MSU, 8 Seed - scUM
Loser - Purdue 66
Winner - Iowa 75

NCAA Results (B10 Tourney Results)
Illinois - 2nd Round loss to Houston as a 4 seed (Lost in Quarters to Indiana)
Wisconsin - 2nd Round loss to Iowa State as a 3 Seed (Lost in Quarters to MSU)
Purdont - Lost in Sweet 16 to St. Peter's as a 3 seed ( Lost in title game)
Rutgers - Lost play-in game to Notre Dame (Lost in Quarters to Iowa)
Iowa - Lost in Round 1 to Richmond as a 5 seed (Won it)
OSU - Lost in Round 2 to Nova as a 7 seed ( Lost in 2nd Round to Penn State)
MSU - Lost in Round 2 to Duke as a 7 seed (Lost in Semis to Purdont)
scUM - Lost in Sweet 16 to Nova as an 11 seed (Lost in 2nd round to Indiana)


2021
1 Seed - Michigan, 2 Seed - Illinois, 3 Seed - Iowa, 4 Seed - Purdue, 5 Seed - OSU, 6 Seed - Wisconsin, 7 Seed - Rutgers, 8 Seed - Maryland
Loser - tOSU - 88
Winner - Illinois - 91

NCAA Results (B10 Tourney Results)
Michigan - Elite Eight as a #1 seed (B10 Semis)
Illinois - We all know
Iowa - Blown out 2nd Round as 2 seed (Lost in Semis to Illinois by 11)
Purdue- Lost 1st Round as a 4 seed (Lost in Quarters by 9 to OSU)
OSU - Lost in 1st Round as a #2 seed by 3 (Lost in the title game to Illini by 3)
Wisconsin - Lost in 2nd Round to #1 Seed Baylor (Lost in Quarters to Iowa)
Rutgers - Lost in 2nd round to Houston (Lost by 22 to Illinois in Quarters)
Maryland - Lost in 2nd Round to Bama by 19 (Lost by 13 in Quarters to scUM)
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I remember when we won the BTT I was worried how we’d do in the tourney. That’s a lot of games in a short span and a lot of winning as well. Don’t get me wrong I was excited we won, however knowing that team I felt like something had to give at some point. As a coach myself with a lot of winning comes a lot of over confidence, which can be a good thing. However, watching that Loyola game it just seemed like we ran out of gas and didn’t take them as serious as we should’ve. I could be wrong though.
 
#22      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
dcenters33 said:
I remember when we won the BTT I was worried how we’d do in the tourney. That’s a lot of games in a short span and a lot of winning as well. Don’t get me wrong I was excited we won, however knowing that team I felt like something had to give at some point. As a coach myself with a lot of winning comes a lot of over confidence, which can be a good thing. However, watching that Loyola game it just seemed like we ran out of gas and didn’t take them as serious as we should’ve. I could be wrong though.
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Winning the BTT and then not being able to travel home due to Covid protocols and instead having to be cooped up in a hotel all week unable to leave their room certainly didn’t help.
 
#23      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
Oldskoolkoach said:
Does B10 tourney harm or hurt a run in the NCA tournament? Last 3 years results
Click to expand...

Everyone is playing a conference tournament at the end of the year and at the same time. You would have to theorize a reason for why the Big Ten teams are being especially affected by their tournament that other conferences are not. Their conference ends later than others, but this is a fairly small difference considering almost every team is getting four days off before the tournament. I don't recall any major injuries stemming from the tournament.
 
#24      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
One sport-wide change I would like is to force teams to play at least one non-conference game in the last two weeks. Everyone has been playing their conference style of play for six weeks. The old bracket busters provided some benefit for smaller programs with an opportunity to adapt to a different playing style. The Big Ten has been more offensively inclined recently, so this really could have helped 5-7 years ago, but would still benefit teams today.
 
#25      

Homecoming 2019

Homecoming 2019
Chicago
Homecoming 2019
mhuml32 said:
Everyone is playing a conference tournament at the end of the year and at the same time. You would have to theorize a reason for why the Big Ten teams are being especially affected by their tournament that other conferences are not. Their conference ends later than others, but this is a fairly small difference considering almost every team is getting four days off before the tournament. I don't recall any major injuries stemming from the tournament.
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Reffing. Games in the NCAAT are called closer to how B12 games are called. Watching Houston vs Iowa state last night was night and day compared to our Maryland game.
 
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