Bracketology

Second place is 1st loser · Feb 24, 2024

lstewart53x3 said:
Well, as of today, we are 8-7 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses. That‘s a 4 seed, but still have to finish the year strong to lock that in.

You know his point. Our metrics look good because the bar isn't overly high. With the Big Ten not having any headliners outside of Purdue, we're getting the Q1/Q2 beating teams like Ohio State(barely hanging on in the top 75), Florida Atlantic(looked like a high quality win at the time), Michigan State, Maryland(barely hanging on to the top 75, Northwestern at home, etc.

We haven't beaten one ranked team....maybe Florida Atlantic is hanging on?

You don't look at any game and see a "wow" win. We've successfully worked the system. Beating decent teams have helped and what has really helped is blowing out bad teams. Why that means so much...no clue.

Winning at Tennessee would have been a wow win, winning at Purdue would have been a wow win and Marquette would have been a wow. We were 0-3. Wisconsin had lost 5 of 6 and the metrics separation wasn't there because they beat a couple of really good teams in the preconference.

Purdue at home and @ Wisconsin would be great feather, while not losing to the likes of Iowa and Minnesota.

It's not a stretch to say that we're a borderline top 20 team. These next 5 games can change that.

lstewart53x3 · Feb 24, 2024

Second place is 1st loser said:
You know his point. Our metrics look good because the bar isn't overly high. With the Big Ten not having any headliners outside of Purdue, we're getting the Q1/Q2 beating teams like Ohio State(barely hanging on in the top 75), Florida Atlantic(looked like a high quality win at the time), Michigan State, Maryland(barely hanging on to the top 75, Northwestern at home, etc.

We haven't beaten one ranked team....maybe Florida Atlantic is hanging on?

You don't look at any game and see a "wow" win. We've successfully worked the system. Beating decent teams have helped and what has really helped is blowing out bad teams. Why that means so much...no clue.

Winning at Tennessee would have been a wow win, winning at Purdue would have been a wow win and Marquette would have been a wow. We were 0-3. Wisconsin had lost 5 of 6 and the metrics separation wasn't there because they beat a couple of really good teams in the preconference.

Purdue at home and @ Wisconsin would be great feather, while not losing to the likes of Iowa and Minnesota.

It's not a stretch to say that we're a borderline top 20 team. These next 5 games can change that.

You’re correct in that we don’t have any Quad 1A wins, which will hurt us come Selection Sunday, especially if we don’t win at least one of Wisconsin or Purdue.

But I’d still argue we’d get a 4 seed if Selection Sunday were today.

That’s where the BracketMatrix has us. That’s where most pundits have us.

If you look at the 5 seeds we’re competing against, like Clemson for example, they have better wins than us, but Clemson also has 2 Q3 losses. We have 0.

We aren’t guaranteed a 4 seed at this point. We still have to win games. But we have the resume of a 4 seed if brackets were created today.

IlliniFaninHoosierLand · Feb 24, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761098477935747347

Navy_illini · Feb 25, 2024

Second place is 1st loser said:
You know his point. Our metrics look good because the bar isn't overly high. With the Big Ten not having any headliners outside of Purdue, we're getting the Q1/Q2 beating teams like Ohio State(barely hanging on in the top 75), Florida Atlantic(looked like a high quality win at the time), Michigan State, Maryland(barely hanging on to the top 75, Northwestern at home, etc.

We haven't beaten one ranked team....maybe Florida Atlantic is hanging on?

You don't look at any game and see a "wow" win. We've successfully worked the system. Beating decent teams have helped and what has really helped is blowing out bad teams. Why that means so much...no clue.

Winning at Tennessee would have been a wow win, winning at Purdue would have been a wow win and Marquette would have been a wow. We were 0-3. Wisconsin had lost 5 of 6 and the metrics separation wasn't there because they beat a couple of really good teams in the preconference.

Purdue at home and @ Wisconsin would be great feather, while not losing to the likes of Iowa and Minnesota.

It's not a stretch to say that we're a borderline top 20 team. These next 5 games can change that.

I agree our resume is ok without that really great win

Look at this resume
Q1 6-3 best win neutral Baylor
Q2 2-2 including a loss at Arkansas
Q3 8-1 loss at GT

We are
Q1 4-5 best neutral against FAU
Q2 5-2
Q3 6-0

Who has the better resume and they have a weaker SOS

According to the bracket matrix the other team is a 3 seed and is Duke

AyoDos11 · Feb 25, 2024

Updated Top 16 Tracker:

As bad as the loss to Penn State felt, it still wasn't a bad loss, especially considering all but 4 teams in the top 16 lost last week. A 3 seed is very much in play down the stretch.

IlliniFaninHoosierLand · Feb 25, 2024

Someone can double check my math on this but I think I'm right...

With the Sparty loss, Illini can clinch a double bye in the BTT if Minnesota wins tonight at Nebraska and we beat the Gophers at home on Wednesday night. If Nebraska wins tonight, then we could clinch it if we win on Wednesday no matter what the Huskers do Thursday night at Ohio State since the Huskers will only have two regular season games left after that game.

FeelYourPaign · Feb 25, 2024

Its the wrong bracket, but I'm just stunned by the fact that Nebraska can still finish in 2nd place in the Big Ten.
They are 9-7 and capable of winning every game still on their schedule. 13-7 would be an amazing achievement for Hoiberg and the Huskers.

Second place is 1st loser · Feb 25, 2024

FeelYourPaign said:
Its the wrong bracket, but I'm just stunned by the fact that Nebraska can still finish in 2nd place in the Big Ten.
They are 9-7 and capable of winning every game still on their schedule. 13-7 would be an amazing achievement for Hoiberg and the Huskers.

He's the runaway coach of the year. That's a team that can win a game or two in the tournament.

Chad Fleck · Feb 25, 2024

If you don't think Illinois is a 4 seed right now, I think you aren't taking into account the other resumes out there right now. It's not just about the Illini, it's about all the other quality teams around them.

Illini in Italy · Feb 25, 2024

Chad Fleck said:
If you don't think Illinois is a 4 seed right now, I think you aren't taking into account the other resumes out there right now. It's not just about the Illini, it's about all the other quality teams around them.

The NBA parity model has struck the NCAA . . . . between the COVID extra year and NIL/transfer cancer, we are not seeing the dominant teams of years prior . . . .

AyoDos11 · Feb 25, 2024

IlliniFaninHoosierLand said:
Someone can double check my math on this but I think I'm right...

With the Sparty loss, Illini can clinch a double bye in the BTT if Minnesota wins tonight at Nebraska and we beat the Gophers at home on Wednesday night. If Nebraska wins tonight, then we could clinch it if we win on Wednesday no matter what the Huskers do Thursday night at Ohio State since the Huskers will only have two regular season games left after that game.

Not quite. Illinois' magic number for finishing above Nebraska is 3, and for finishing above Michigan St and Minnesota it is 2.
If we beat Minnesota on Wednesday, then we will clinch a higher finish than Minnesota and move the magic numbers to 2 and 1 for Neb and MSU respectively. After that we would need a Nebraska loss to OSU on Thursday, and then an Illini win on Saturday against Wisconsin to clinch a higher finish than Neb and MSU.

In short, the earliest Illinois can clinch a double bye is this Saturday.

Calvin · Feb 25, 2024

Chad Fleck said:
If you don't think Illinois is a 4 seed right now, I think you aren't taking into account the other resumes out there right now. It's not just about the Illini, it's about all the other quality teams around them.

+1 And although it feels like the team is missing a signature win, there's a lot of good wins, and 2nd place in a major conference. The thing that concerns me is how they've played lately. Just doesn't feel like a team that's peaking, or really hungry for March.

Overall I've enjoyed the season, but it feels like there's a lull here.

LvilleILL · Feb 25, 2024

3-1 in the last 4 and we have a shot at a 3 seed. With that being said, let's win all four

LvilleILL · Feb 25, 2024

Calvin said:
+1 And although it feels like the team is missing a signature win, there's a lot of good wins, and 2nd place in a major conference. The thing that concerns me is how they've played lately. Just doesn't feel like a team that's peaking, or really hungry for March.

Overall I've enjoyed the season, but it feels like there's a lull here.

I was really encouraged by the last twelve minutes against Iowa. Iowa has been one of the best team in the conferences recently and we shut their water off down the stretch. Need to see the same type of performance going forward, but the foundation is there for us to peak in the coming weeks

Combo · Feb 25, 2024

Chad Fleck said:
If you don't think Illinois is a 4 seed right now, I think you aren't taking into account the other resumes out there right now. It's not just about the Illini, it's about all the other quality teams around them.

Agreed. We're not an elite team, but who is? Everybody is quite beatable these days. Even UConn and Purdue, who we thought were juggernauts, have looked very beatable.

LouHenson · Feb 26, 2024

I am pretty sure we will be between a 3 - 7 seed:

1) win 2 of last 4 and 1 in BTT = 4 seed
2) win 3 of last 4 and 2 in BTT = 3 seed
3) win 1 of last 4 and 2 in BTT = 4 seed
4) win 1 of last 4 and 1 in BTT = 5 seed
5) win 1 of last 4 and 0 in BTT = 5/6 seed
6) win 0 of last 4 and 1 in BTT = 5/6 seed
7) win 0 of last 4 and 0 in BTT = 6/7 seed

Lots to play for in the next 4-8 games?