Bracketology

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#27      

Vinegarben

V
Vinegarben
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I'm more having a conversation here rather than trying to make some point, because I (surprisingly!) do not really have time to do much in-depth research ... but when was the last time we had this high of a ceiling and this low of a floor for our NCAA Tournament seed with 3 regular season games left? Some recent seasons below:

2023
- 19-9 and NR with 3 games left. Had just defeated #21 Northwestern at home.
- Lost 2 of last 3 (at OSU, vs. Michigan, at #5 Purdue) and lost our first BTT game (vs. PSU).
- #9 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2022
- 19-8 and #15 with 3 games left. Had just beat #19 Michigan State on the road but then lost to #22 Ohio State at home.
- Won last 3 games (at Michigan, vs. PSU, vs. #24 Iowa) but lost our first BTT game (vs. Indiana).
- #4 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2021
- 17-6 and #5 with 3 games left. Had just lost at MSU and beat Nebraska at home.
- Won our last 3 in VERY impressive fashion (at #23 Wisconsin, at #2 Michigan, at #7 OSU) and won the BTT with 3 more wins (vs. Rutgers, vs. #5 Iowa, vs. #9 OSU).
- #1 seed in NCAA Tournament.

I'm sure there are interesting cases in past years, but this is the NET Era at least. You would think 2021 was this epic finish (and it was!) to push us to a #1 seed, but I remember multiple outlets declaring us a sure #1 seed when we won at Michigan ... and we still beat 2 more top 10 teams before Selection Sunday. Our last 3 games probably had a minimal impact in 2022. 2023, at least to me, really stands out as a season where we played ourselves definitively off the #6/7 seed line by losing 3 out of 4 before Selection Sunday.

It seems like right now we are pretty unanimously a solid #4 seed. Losing out and losing our first BTT game likely pushes us down to a #6 even?? Winning out and making it to Saturday of the BTT likely gives us a great shot at a #2. That seems like an abnormally wide range!
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As of 3/1 Lunardi has Illinois as 5 and trending down
 
#28      

PepeSilvia

P
PepeSilvia
OrangeBlue98 said:
I’m really hoping Illinois can work its way into a 3 seed and be opposite Iowa State. The Cyclones are doing it with smoke and mirrors. They do not scare me at all.
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I mostly just want to avoid UCONN. Getting a 3 guarantees you can't run into them until the Elite 8.

Also, would like to avoid Tennessee(just a good team), Auburn(Broome would kill us), and UNC(Ditto for Bacot).

Think this Illini team can play with anyone(also lose to a lot of teams) but out of the top teams I think those 4 pose some matchup issues.
 
#30      

OrangeBlue98

OrangeBlue98
Des Moines, IA
OrangeBlue98
PepeSilvia said:
I mostly just want to avoid UCONN. Getting a 3 guarantees you can't run into them until the Elite 8.

Also, would like to avoid Tennessee(just a good team), Auburn(Broome would kill us), and UNC(Ditto for Bacot).

Think this Illini team can play with anyone(also lose to a lot of teams) but out of the top teams I think those 4 pose some matchup issues.
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The only two teams that really scare me are Houston and UConn. There is not another team that I wouldn't be scared to face in the tournament. Every team has flaws - our flaws do not match up well with those two teams.
 
#32      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
SkyysNotFalling said:
Auburn only has ONE quad 1 win…..

Iowa State is 12-6 in Quad 1/2 games ….

Duke is 10-6 in Quad 1/2 games….

Alabama has just 3 Quad 1 wins, 11-9 in Quad 1/2 games….

North Carolina is 12-6 in quad 1/2….

San Diego State is 8-7 in quad 1/2…

We are very very close to creeping into the 3 seed range, possibly a 2 if we get some luck IMO…. We are now 10-7 in quad 1/2, our net is back up to 15, we are 11 on kenpom & we have 2 more quad 1 opportunities in the regular season….

I don’t understand why we can’t jump Auburn, Alabama, or Duke if we win out…
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Alabama is also 1-6 in Q1 games away from home. We are 4-4. I do believe the committee still values that. Duke is pretty strong at 4-2

The 2 teams I'm worried about sliding into that 3 seed instead of us are Kentucky or Creighton.

Creighton just beat Marquette and still has a Q1A game @Villanova.

Kentucky plays @Tennessee.
 
#33      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
jrichisamazing said:
Alabama is also 1-6 in Q1 games away from home. We are 4-4. I do believe the committee still values that. Duke is pretty strong at 4-2

The 2 teams I'm worried about sliding into that 3 seed instead of us are Kentucky or Creighton.

Creighton just beat Marquette and still has a Q1A game @Villanova.

Kentucky plays @Tennessee.
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Was Maryland a quad 3 loss when the committee put out their top 16? If we end up winning our next 2 but get a 4 seed and teams like Bama &/or Auburn get a 3 that’d be malpractice ….

Kentucky currently just 7-7 in quad 1/2 with a quad 3 loss…
 
#34      

PepeSilvia

P
PepeSilvia
OrangeBlue98 said:
The only two teams that really scare me are Houston and UConn. There is not another team that I wouldn't be scared to face in the tournament. Every team has flaws - our flaws do not match up well with those two teams.
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Honestly Houston doesn't really scare me that much. Think that would be an interesting game since they're almost out polar opposite.

They have some guards that could give us some trouble but I think the Illini could speed them and get em out of their comfort zone plus they're small.
 
#36      

727ill

7
727ill
OrangeBlue98 said:
I’m really hoping Illinois can work its way into a 3 seed and be opposite Iowa State. The Cyclones are doing it with smoke and mirrors. They do not scare me at all.
Click to expand...

We would wax any defensive-first team on a neutral site. My concerns are getting matched up with a team that doesn’t mind a track meet (Kentucky, Alabama).
 
#42      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
BillyBob1 said:
New Net today.
Duke beat 46 Virginia at home and moved up 4 spots.
Illinois beat 26 Wisconsin on the road and moved up 1 spot.
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Margin carries a lot of weight. We haven't had one win over a top 25(AP) team, but in some of the games we did win, we steamrolled who we played.

I don't think that it should have that much of an effect, but we wouldn't be in the greatest situation with regards to the NET without the quirk.
 
#43      

fuggles

F
fuggles
BillyBob1 said:
New Net today.
Duke beat 46 Virginia at home and moved up 4 spots.
Illinois beat 26 Wisconsin on the road and moved up 1 spot.
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Its not so much that they went up but the teams above them went down. BYU, Creighton, Marquette all dropped significantly.
 
#44      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Palm's latest update this morning had us as a 4 seed in the West region playing in Spokane against UC Irvine. The 5/12 matchup in that portion of the bracket is Kentucky/Samford.
 
#45      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
I also don’t get the love of SDSU besides what they did last year with a different team…Don’t see how it isn’t creighton + Kentucky in for Wisconsin and SDSU from the earlier selection reveal.

3-7 in Quad 1; and those 3 wins are against Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and New Mexico. They basically lose all their road games against quality teams and then win home games and against bottom feeders.
 
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