I'm more having a conversation here rather than trying to make some point, because I (surprisingly!) do not really have time to do much in-depth research ... but when was the last time we had this high of a ceiling and this low of a floor for our NCAA Tournament seed with 3 regular season games left? Some recent seasons below:
2023
- 19-9 and NR with 3 games left. Had just defeated #21 Northwestern at home.
- Lost 2 of last 3 (at OSU, vs. Michigan, at #5 Purdue) and lost our first BTT game (vs. PSU).
- #9 seed in NCAA Tournament.
2022
- 19-8 and #15 with 3 games left. Had just beat #19 Michigan State on the road but then lost to #22 Ohio State at home.
- Won last 3 games (at Michigan, vs. PSU, vs. #24 Iowa) but lost our first BTT game (vs. Indiana).
- #4 seed in NCAA Tournament.
2021
- 17-6 and #5 with 3 games left. Had just lost at MSU and beat Nebraska at home.
- Won our last 3 in VERY impressive fashion (at #23 Wisconsin, at #2 Michigan, at #7 OSU) and won the BTT with 3 more wins (vs. Rutgers, vs. #5 Iowa, vs. #9 OSU).
- #1 seed in NCAA Tournament.
I'm sure there are interesting cases in past years, but this is the NET Era at least. You would think 2021 was this epic finish (and it was!) to push us to a #1 seed, but I remember multiple outlets declaring us a sure #1 seed when we won at Michigan ... and we still beat 2 more top 10 teams before Selection Sunday. Our last 3 games probably had a minimal impact in 2022. 2023, at least to me, really stands out as a season where we played ourselves definitively off the #6/7 seed line by losing 3 out of 4 before Selection Sunday.
It seems like right now we are pretty unanimously a solid #4 seed. Losing out and losing our first BTT game likely pushes us down to a #6 even?? Winning out and making it to Saturday of the BTT likely gives us a great shot at a #2. That seems like an abnormally wide range!