Bracketology

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#2      

Mobi

M
Mobi
GIF by The Circle Netflix (US)
 
#3      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
I'm more having a conversation here rather than trying to make some point, because I (surprisingly!) do not really have time to do much in-depth research ... but when was the last time we had this high of a ceiling and this low of a floor for our NCAA Tournament seed with 3 regular season games left? Some recent seasons below:

2023
- 19-9 and NR with 3 games left. Had just defeated #21 Northwestern at home.
- Lost 2 of last 3 (at OSU, vs. Michigan, at #5 Purdue) and lost our first BTT game (vs. PSU).
- #9 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2022
- 19-8 and #15 with 3 games left. Had just beat #19 Michigan State on the road but then lost to #22 Ohio State at home.
- Won last 3 games (at Michigan, vs. PSU, vs. #24 Iowa) but lost our first BTT game (vs. Indiana).
- #4 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2021
- 17-6 and #5 with 3 games left. Had just lost at MSU and beat Nebraska at home.
- Won our last 3 in VERY impressive fashion (at #23 Wisconsin, at #2 Michigan, at #7 OSU) and won the BTT with 3 more wins (vs. Rutgers, vs. #5 Iowa, vs. #9 OSU).
- #1 seed in NCAA Tournament.

I'm sure there are interesting cases in past years, but this is the NET Era at least. You would think 2021 was this epic finish (and it was!) to push us to a #1 seed, but I remember multiple outlets declaring us a sure #1 seed when we won at Michigan ... and we still beat 2 more top 10 teams before Selection Sunday. Our last 3 games probably had a minimal impact in 2022. 2023, at least to me, really stands out as a season where we played ourselves definitively off the #6/7 seed line by losing 3 out of 4 before Selection Sunday.

It seems like right now we are pretty unanimously a solid #4 seed. Losing out and losing our first BTT game likely pushes us down to a #6 even?? Winning out and making it to Saturday of the BTT likely gives us a great shot at a #2. That seems like an abnormally wide range!
 
#4      

Monticello

M
Monticello
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I'm more having a conversation here rather than trying to make some point, because I (surprisingly!) do not really have time to do much in-depth research ... but when was the last time we had this high of a ceiling and this low of a floor for our NCAA Tournament seed with 3 regular season games left? Some recent seasons below:

2023
- 19-9 and NR with 3 games left. Had just defeated #21 Northwestern at home.
- Lost 2 of last 3 (at OSU, vs. Michigan, at #5 Purdue) and lost our first BTT game (vs. PSU).
- #9 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2022
- 19-8 and #15 with 3 games left. Had just beat #19 Michigan State on the road but then lost to #22 Ohio State at home.
- Won last 3 games (at Michigan, vs. PSU, vs. #24 Iowa) but lost our first BTT game (vs. Indiana).
- #4 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2021
- 17-6 and #5 with 3 games left. Had just lost at MSU and beat Nebraska at home.
- Won our last 3 in VERY impressive fashion (at #23 Wisconsin, at #2 Michigan, at #7 OSU) and won the BTT with 3 more wins (vs. Rutgers, vs. #5 Iowa, vs. #9 OSU).
- #1 seed in NCAA Tournament.

I'm sure there are interesting cases in past years, but this is the NET Era at least. You would think 2021 was this epic finish (and it was!) to push us to a #1 seed, but I remember multiple outlets declaring us a sure #1 seed when we won at Michigan ... and we still beat 2 more top 10 teams before Selection Sunday. Our last 3 games probably had a minimal impact in 2022. 2023, at least to me, really stands out as a season where we played ourselves definitively off the #6/7 seed line by losing 3 out of 4 before Selection Sunday.

It seems like right now we are pretty unanimously a solid #4 seed. Losing out and losing our first BTT game likely pushes us down to a #6 even?? Winning out and making it to Saturday of the BTT likely gives us a great shot at a #2. That seems like an abnormally wide range!
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I am too lazy to look at the rest of the NCAA those years, but with teams like KU and Zona losing randomly, I'd say we're in the same boat as about 12 other teams (at least). I don't ever remember a season where the 2-6 seeds were so wide open in March.
 
#5      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Monticello said:
I am too lazy to look at the rest of the NCAA those years, but with teams like KU and Zona losing randomly, I'd say we're in the same boat as about 12 other teams (at least). I don't ever remember a season where the 2-6 seeds were so wide open in March.
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Yeah, it's exciting! Our last three games are all Quad 1, 2/3 are on the road (I believe the Committee still sees road/neutral wins as key, as that is the environment of the NCAAT itself) and one is a true chance at a marquee win.
 
#6      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yeah, it's exciting! Our last three games are all Quad 1, 2/3 are on the road (I believe the Committee still sees road/neutral wins as key, as that is the environment of the NCAAT itself) and one is a true chance at a marquee win.
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EDIT: I am also FIRMLY in the camp that as far as the Big Ten Tournament "mattering" for your seed, it goes something like this:

- Results Wednesday-Thursday matter just as much as any other regular season game. 100% influential to your seed.
- Results on Friday matter, but I could see it being close enough to Selection Sunday that only certain results move the needle.
- Results on Saturday only matter if it's a "big win" (i.e., Quad 1 ... maybe even only a "headliner" Quad 1, at that).
- Results on Sunday clearly are not taken into account.

And with that in mind, this is how our potential opponents would break down in Minneapolis on a neutral court (NET rankings used):

QUAD 1
#2 Purdue
#22 Wisconsin
#24 Michigan State
#43 Nebraska
#48 Northwestern

QUAD 2
#60 Iowa
#63 Ohio State
#70 Maryland
#76 Minnesota
#90 Rutgers
#95 Penn State

QUAD 3
#105 Indiana
#129 Michigan

So, we will 99% likely get another Quad 2 chance on Friday, and if we win our Saturday game would almost certainly be Quad 1. That's four Quad 1 and one Quad 2 games to end the season and still to affect our seed ... this team controls its own destiny with a VERY high ceiling!
 
#11      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Second place is 1st loser said:
It'd be the combination of losing all three.....and something. Not sure what it is.
Click to expand...

I think someone else in the previous thread mentioned that Wisky, Nebby, and Sparty would have to win their remaining games as well. In that scenario, it would go Wisky at 3, Nebby at 4, Illini at 5, and Sparty at 6. Wisky would be above us based on round robin record among the 4 teams. Nebby would be above us based on their lone win over Purdue. We would be above Sparty based on round robin record.
 
#12      

ILLINI76

ILLINI76
Springfiled, IL.
ILLINI76
That’s because are best win Michigan State keeps dropping in the NET and they might not even make the tournament.
 
#13      

RabidDawgClassic

RabidDawgClassic
RabidDawgClassic
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I'm more having a conversation here rather than trying to make some point, because I (surprisingly!) do not really have time to do much in-depth research ... but when was the last time we had this high of a ceiling and this low of a floor for our NCAA Tournament seed with 3 regular season games left? Some recent seasons below:

2023
- 19-9 and NR with 3 games left. Had just defeated #21 Northwestern at home.
- Lost 2 of last 3 (at OSU, vs. Michigan, at #5 Purdue) and lost our first BTT game (vs. PSU).
- #9 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2022
- 19-8 and #15 with 3 games left. Had just beat #19 Michigan State on the road but then lost to #22 Ohio State at home.
- Won last 3 games (at Michigan, vs. PSU, vs. #24 Iowa) but lost our first BTT game (vs. Indiana).
- #4 seed in NCAA Tournament.

2021
- 17-6 and #5 with 3 games left. Had just lost at MSU and beat Nebraska at home.
- Won our last 3 in VERY impressive fashion (at #23 Wisconsin, at #2 Michigan, at #7 OSU) and won the BTT with 3 more wins (vs. Rutgers, vs. #5 Iowa, vs. #9 OSU).
- #1 seed in NCAA Tournament.

I'm sure there are interesting cases in past years, but this is the NET Era at least. You would think 2021 was this epic finish (and it was!) to push us to a #1 seed, but I remember multiple outlets declaring us a sure #1 seed when we won at Michigan ... and we still beat 2 more top 10 teams before Selection Sunday. Our last 3 games probably had a minimal impact in 2022. 2023, at least to me, really stands out as a season where we played ourselves definitively off the #6/7 seed line by losing 3 out of 4 before Selection Sunday.

It seems like right now we are pretty unanimously a solid #4 seed. Losing out and losing our first BTT game likely pushes us down to a #6 even?? Winning out and making it to Saturday of the BTT likely gives us a great shot at a #2. That seems like an abnormally wide range!
Click to expand...
Here's how I picture your scenario as you compile these stats. You're working feverishly at your desk, with a yellow legal pad, jotting down all sorts of stats from the internet to compile it later into what we normally see. Then your boss wanders in and looks over your shoulder!

BOSS: Nightman!! What are you working on there?!?

FOTN: Uh.... analytics. Sir!!

The boss looks closely at your notes and sees "B1G T-gen, Pur-1, Ill-2, Nw-3, Neb-4. #3 seed?" He has no idea what it means.

BOSS: Oh... analytics, eh? Well done, Nightman! Keep up the good work! You're going places.

FOTN: That's right. First Minneapolis then hopefully either Indianapolis or Memphis. But I suspect it may be Brooklyn or Pittsburgh.
 
#16      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
Second place is 1st loser said:
We keep falling in Lunardi's bracket projection. Thoughts why?
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Don’t bother with any of the ”pro” bracketologists, they’re garbage; especially, Palm.

The last 5 years Palm’s bracket ranks 142 of 174, and Lunardi’s is 98th. My guess is their only purpose is to provide an in house basis of ”expertise” that the networks and other writers can freely reference and reiterate without declaring attribution and facing other industry obstacles if they referenced a 3rd party. I’m sure it also helps to promote the network’s own biases as well.

 
#17      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
Huge win today. Unfortunately Baylor and Creighton won

Trying to see a path to a 3 seed
Need Duke to lose which means UNC stays ahead of us
KU has a tough schedule left could drop from a 2 to a 4
Bama has Tennessee and Florida left depending how they do they could be a 2 to 4 seed

ISU San Diego St and Auburn have an easy schedule

So there are 3 spots that we could potentially move up into if we win
 
#18      

OrangeBlue98

OrangeBlue98
Des Moines, IA
OrangeBlue98
Second place is 1st loser said:
We keep falling in Lunardi's bracket projection. Thoughts why?
Click to expand...
He's throwing darts at a bracket like he's done for two decades? He's an idiot.

Lunardi reminds me of a guy who used to be on ESPN NFL Gameday many years ago. Fred Edelman or Edelstein or something like that. He was ALWAYS wrong on insider things related to the NFL. He always started his "analysis" with "My sources tell me". Fred needed different sources. Lunardi is about as accurate as Fred was.
 
#19      

fatboyslim

F
fatboyslim
OrangeBlue98 said:
He's throwing darts at a bracket like he's done for two decades? He's an idiot.

Lunardi reminds me of a guy who used to be on ESPN NFL Gameday many years ago. Fred Edelman or Edelstein or something like that. He was ALWAYS wrong on insider things related to the NFL. He always started his "analysis" with "My sources tell me". Fred needed different sources. Lunardi is about as accurate as Fred was.
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Holy crap I remember that guy lol. You dug deep for that one. He was awful.
 
#20      

AyoDos11

AyoDos11
Southern Illinois
AyoDos11
Updated records of the Top 16 teams two weeks after the official bracket preview:
1000004331.jpg

Quad 1 wins are in green, Q3 and Q4 losses are in red. I would say Illinois has passed San Diego St and Auburn, while Creighton and Kentucky are nipping at our heels. Wisconsin on the other hand, is probably looking at a 6 seed right now.
 
#21      

PepeSilvia

P
PepeSilvia
AyoDos11 said:
Updated records of the Top 16 teams two weeks after the official bracket preview:
View attachment 31736
Quad 1 wins are in green, Q3 and Q4 losses are in red. I would say Illinois has passed San Diego St and Auburn, while Creighton and Kentucky are nipping at our heels. Wisconsin on the other hand, is probably looking at a 6 seed right now.
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Kansas is so incredibly overrated. Personally think Illinois should be around 12 at the moment. Likely right on the edge of the 3/4 line.

Beating Purdue would be a statement win.
 
#22      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
Our resume looks a ton better but you see the impact of a mediocre big ten on our chances - of our 10 Q1 games, only 2 we’re at home. Tough to have a good record when most of those are road games unless you’re 1 seed caliber. We’ve really only Had a total of 2 high end signature win chances this entire season at home/neutral with how the schedule played out (Marquette and Purdue Tuesday).

Compare that to Baylor that’s had 4 home Q1 games and 4 neutral games. That’s a lot more high caliber opportunities in normal environments.
 
#23      

LouHenson

LouHenson
LouHenson
PepeSilvia said:
Kansas is so incredibly overrated. Personally think Illinois should be around 12 at the moment. Likely right on the edge of the 3/4 line.

Beating Purdue would be a statement win.
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Kansas is way overrated (blue blood treatment). The Purdue game really is important to us. If we can we in it we are guaranteed a 2 seed I believe in the BTT, so let’s say we lose to Iowa last game of year. They will be playing to get into the tournament.

But if we were to beat say MSU/Wisconsin/Nebby/Nothwestern ect in our Friday/Saturday games in the BTT I really think that would get us a 3 Seed.
 
#24      

OrangeBlue98

OrangeBlue98
Des Moines, IA
OrangeBlue98
I’m really hoping Illinois can work its way into a 3 seed and be opposite Iowa State. The Cyclones are doing it with smoke and mirrors. They do not scare me at all.
 
#25      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
Auburn only has ONE quad 1 win…..

Iowa State is 12-6 in Quad 1/2 games ….

Duke is 10-6 in Quad 1/2 games….

Alabama has just 3 Quad 1 wins, 11-9 in Quad 1/2 games….

North Carolina is 12-6 in quad 1/2….

San Diego State is 8-7 in quad 1/2…

We are very very close to creeping into the 3 seed range, possibly a 2 if we get some luck IMO…. We are now 10-7 in quad 1/2, our net is back up to 15, we are 11 on kenpom & we have 2 more quad 1 opportunities in the regular season….

I don’t understand why we can’t jump Auburn, Alabama, or Duke if we win out…
 
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