And Creighton can't get Omaha so our odds went up.
Bracketology
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Congratulations to the Big Ten on winning the final Pac 12 tournament championship
Lunardi plugged his brain back in.
madillini4
Ozamataz Buckshank
- Millywaukee
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Northwestern is probably also sweating. They may have better record than MSU, but that Chicago State loss might loom large. Northwestern's NET is in 50s behind Ohio State (who look better than NW right now). NET is still relatively high for MSU at 25, which might be saving grace. I think both NW and MSU will ultimately get in, but they are both trending toward first 4 territory.
What do the asterisks mean? Trying to find meaning but I got nothin
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
Autobids / projected autobids
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
He'd better bring a whole team of Seal's and magic ladder if he wants to get past TSJ....
I'm not going to go full Lunardi here, but here's what I'm seeing taking an in depth look at the current state of the bracket, from my point of view, based on 15 different numerics, some more team-power based (like KenPom, T-Rank, NET), some more resume-based (WAB, SOR).
Looking at just the top line, effectively there are 3 teams that are significantly above everyone else: Houston, Connecticut, and Purdue. Their resumes are basically identical. All 3 won their conference by multiple games, all of them have double-digit Q1 win totals, and all are top 3 in every power ranking out there. Purdue's 2 most recent performances has slipped it to 3rd (by a hair) in power metrics, while Houston and UConn are 1-2 in everything. I'll give the nod to Houston for winning the toughest conference and amassing 16 Q1 victories, even with today's defeat.
So we start with:
1. Houston - 1 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Memphis, TN
2. Connecticut - 1 seed EAST region - Opening site Brooklyn, NY
3. Purdue - 1 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Indianapolis, IN
After that, things get a little interesting. Iowa State has made up a ton of ground in power and resume, particularly after today's win. Their resume is 5th, and their power rankings have them around 5th as well. North Carolina had the 4th best resume, but their power metrics are a little weak, and that's before today's Q2 loss. Tennessee is 7th across the board, resume and power. Arizona has good power numbers, but their resume has slid, treading water through a miserable Pac 12 season and then not getting the AQ. Going more in depth, I think Arizona ends up lower than I assumed they'd be going into this exercise.
So the next 3:
4. Iowa State - 1 seed WEST region - Opening site Omaha, NE
5. North Carolina - 2 seed WEST region (far from home but effectively even with Iowa State) - Opening site Charlotte, NC (is there just always a NC site so Duke/UNC can play at home for 2 rounds?)
6. Tennessee - 2 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Charlotte, NC
After that, it's a muddled mess. Arizona has good metrics, middling resume. Auburn has great metrics, suspect resume (though, 10 Q2 wins offsets it slightly). Marquette has great resume, middling metrics. Illinois has good resume, good metrics (basically 9th best resume, 9th best metrics, but behind different teams in each group). Baylor has great resume, fading metrics. Creighton has good resume, good metrics (but oddly, somehow behind Illinois in almost everything but NET rating). Duke has very good metrics, very suspect resume. Kansas has very suspect metrics, good resume.
Here's how I'd rank the next 6:
7. Marquette - 2 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Indianapolis, IN (they beat Illinois, and that means something in this group)
8. Arizona - 2 seed EAST region - Opening site Sa.t Lake City, UT
9. Baylor - 3 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Omaha, NE
10. Illinois - 3 seed EAST region - Opening site Memphis, TN
11. Creighton - 3 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Pittsburgh, PA (could flip Illinois and Creighton sites if you put Creighton 10 and Illinois 11)
12. Auburn - 3 seed WEST region - Opening site Pittsburgh, PA
Beyond this, teams really start looking very similar, up to the 5 seed, and then there's a giant drop, and it's weird how quickly the resumes drop off.
4 seeds though:
13. Duke - 4 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Brooklyn, NY (This just feels right, Duke drops to a 4 seed but gets favorable region and site)
14. Alabama - 4 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Salt Lake City, UT
15. Kansas - 4 seed EAST region - Opening site Spokane, WA (Their resume holds them as a 4 seed, go to East to balance top 4 B12 teams)
16. Wisconsin - 4 seed WEST region - Opening site Spokane, WA (They had a good resume before, and then beat Purdue. Better resume than Kentucky at this point, and can still win B1G tomorrow)
That's all the analysis for one night, I'll fill in the rest tomorrow morning.
Looking at just the top line, effectively there are 3 teams that are significantly above everyone else: Houston, Connecticut, and Purdue. Their resumes are basically identical. All 3 won their conference by multiple games, all of them have double-digit Q1 win totals, and all are top 3 in every power ranking out there. Purdue's 2 most recent performances has slipped it to 3rd (by a hair) in power metrics, while Houston and UConn are 1-2 in everything. I'll give the nod to Houston for winning the toughest conference and amassing 16 Q1 victories, even with today's defeat.
So we start with:
1. Houston - 1 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Memphis, TN
2. Connecticut - 1 seed EAST region - Opening site Brooklyn, NY
3. Purdue - 1 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Indianapolis, IN
After that, things get a little interesting. Iowa State has made up a ton of ground in power and resume, particularly after today's win. Their resume is 5th, and their power rankings have them around 5th as well. North Carolina had the 4th best resume, but their power metrics are a little weak, and that's before today's Q2 loss. Tennessee is 7th across the board, resume and power. Arizona has good power numbers, but their resume has slid, treading water through a miserable Pac 12 season and then not getting the AQ. Going more in depth, I think Arizona ends up lower than I assumed they'd be going into this exercise.
So the next 3:
4. Iowa State - 1 seed WEST region - Opening site Omaha, NE
5. North Carolina - 2 seed WEST region (far from home but effectively even with Iowa State) - Opening site Charlotte, NC (is there just always a NC site so Duke/UNC can play at home for 2 rounds?)
6. Tennessee - 2 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Charlotte, NC
After that, it's a muddled mess. Arizona has good metrics, middling resume. Auburn has great metrics, suspect resume (though, 10 Q2 wins offsets it slightly). Marquette has great resume, middling metrics. Illinois has good resume, good metrics (basically 9th best resume, 9th best metrics, but behind different teams in each group). Baylor has great resume, fading metrics. Creighton has good resume, good metrics (but oddly, somehow behind Illinois in almost everything but NET rating). Duke has very good metrics, very suspect resume. Kansas has very suspect metrics, good resume.
Here's how I'd rank the next 6:
7. Marquette - 2 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Indianapolis, IN (they beat Illinois, and that means something in this group)
8. Arizona - 2 seed EAST region - Opening site Sa.t Lake City, UT
9. Baylor - 3 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Omaha, NE
10. Illinois - 3 seed EAST region - Opening site Memphis, TN
11. Creighton - 3 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Pittsburgh, PA (could flip Illinois and Creighton sites if you put Creighton 10 and Illinois 11)
12. Auburn - 3 seed WEST region - Opening site Pittsburgh, PA
Beyond this, teams really start looking very similar, up to the 5 seed, and then there's a giant drop, and it's weird how quickly the resumes drop off.
4 seeds though:
13. Duke - 4 seed SOUTH region - Opening site Brooklyn, NY (This just feels right, Duke drops to a 4 seed but gets favorable region and site)
14. Alabama - 4 seed MIDWEST region - Opening site Salt Lake City, UT
15. Kansas - 4 seed EAST region - Opening site Spokane, WA (Their resume holds them as a 4 seed, go to East to balance top 4 B12 teams)
16. Wisconsin - 4 seed WEST region - Opening site Spokane, WA (They had a good resume before, and then beat Purdue. Better resume than Kentucky at this point, and can still win B1G tomorrow)
That's all the analysis for one night, I'll fill in the rest tomorrow morning.
Loyalty after dark project:
TOOLnardi.com is an available URL...
One year the B1G teams should conspire to have a team otherwise not in the tournament win the BTT so that the committee has to actually consider the result of the game.
This is good stuff and looks pretty accurate. The only thing is I don’t see Wisconsin getting a 4 seed. One good weekend doesn’t make up for the slump they’ve had for over a month.
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