Bracketology

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#452      
wc_illini
illini510 said:
A couple days later with my response but this obviously comes after Miami's loss to UMass. I think a lot of the bracketologists still have them in the field on the basis of their regular season body of work. I think this is a case where metrics can be slightly deceiving. Auburn and Indiana's metrics point to better NET rankings more Quad 1/2 wins, and stronger SOS. But when you watch all 3 play and you let your eyes tell you the story, I believe Miami is the more deserving team. They are more cohesive and player better basketball. I don't need to see a team get in with 14 or 15 or 16 losses. That just means they were average/mediocre. A better case could be made for Oklahoma and Cincinnati than either Auburn or Indiana b/c at least Oklahoma and Cincinnati have played well down the stretch and playing their best basketball in February/March. A case can be made for San Diego St and New Mexico as well.

But no case in my mind can be made for Indiana, Auburn, Stanford, or Seton Hall over Miami. None of those teams look like NCAA tournament teams and none have helped their resume down the stretch. Seton Hall had 2 chances to beat St John's and whiffed on both. Indiana looks god awful and Auburn is just mid. The eye test matters just as much as the metrics sometimes. Miami vs Auburn and Indiana is a real test for the committee but I think if you're the committee, you want to put in the team who has been playing well down the stretch and who you think has a better chance to win games when you're looking at these two polar opposite resumes
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I think it's reasonable to consider large trends (but not to overemphasize just a few games). Indiana is in a season-long decline, so that's bad. Oklahoma and Cincinnati are in longer term upswings. Auburn and MOH have been relatively flat in the 2nd half. NM and SD St might be off their peak, but nothing extreme.

My issue with eye test is that it's very affected by opponent quality, specific matchups, bias (which mid-majors should usually want to avoid), and huge game-to-game variations inherent in college basketball (no human can watch every game by all the bubble teams).

To me it just comes down to whether you value binary W/L results or predictive team quality, and/or whether you value a possibly higher ceiling over our best effort at estimating quality (and what kind of incentive that creates)
 
#455      
Fighter of the Nightman
illiniguy1234 said:
Purdue's resume is significantly better than ours now. The only hope we have is the H2H and maybe the fact the committee does not care about games after Thursday this week.
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I would find the latter possibility to be really unlikely. There were so many opportunities yesterday for a bunch of teams in the same seeding neighborhood to distinguish themselves, and I just can't believe the Committee wasn't ready to watch those results closely. FWIW, here is our resume compared to Purdue by category.

Record: PUR 25-8, ILL 24-8
NET: ILL #8, PUR #9
KenPom: ILL #7, PUR #8
Road Record: ILL 8-2, PUR 8-3
vs. Quad 1A: PUR 6-6, ILL 5-7
vs. Quad 1: PUR 9-8, ILL 7-8
vs. Quad 2: PUR 6-0, ILL 5-0
vs. Quad 3: Both 7-0
vs. Quad 4: ILL 7-0, PUR 5-0
Head to Head: ILL 1, PUR 0 (at Purdue)

So yeah ... they probably have us beat at this point. We just need to hope MSU played themselves below us yesterday, which is actually a much closer comparison all of a sudden ... but that doesn't help us with St. Louis.
 
#457      
Altuve27
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I would find the latter possibility to be really unlikely. There were so many opportunities yesterday for a bunch of teams in the same seeding neighborhood to distinguish themselves, and I just can't believe the Committee wasn't ready to watch those results closely. FWIW, here is our resume compared to Purdue by category.

Record: PUR 25-8, ILL 24-8
NET: ILL #8, PUR #9
KenPom: ILL #7, PUR #8
Road Record: ILL 8-2, PUR 8-3
vs. Quad 1A: PUR 6-6, ILL 5-7
vs. Quad 1: PUR 9-8, ILL 7-8
vs. Quad 2: PUR 6-0, ILL 5-0
vs. Quad 3: Both 7-0
vs. Quad 4: ILL 7-0, PUR 5-0
Head to Head: ILL 1, PUR 0 (at Purdue)

So yeah ... they probably have us beat at this point. We just need to hope MSU played themselves below us yesterday, which is actually a much closer comparison all of a sudden ... but that doesn't help us with St. Louis.
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Love your posts and your avatar. “It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia” is one of my favorite shows.

The problem with MSU is they won the head to head. If we had won that game we would be ahead of them.
 
#461      
BrownTown
The 3-6 potential draws I'm seeing aren't promising.

Louisville being the likely draw...okay I'll take that. Hopefully Mikel Brown doesn't put up 40

But Tennessee, UNC, BYU? None look promising the way we've played the last month.
 
#463      
Chase321
Tyler Bilodeau won’t play in BTT; available for NCAAs.
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Don’t know why we should believe that. They have every incentive to lie or be extremely optimistic
 
#464      
Chase321
The 3-6 potential draws I'm seeing aren't promising.

Louisville being the likely draw...okay I'll take that. Hopefully Mikel Brown doesn't put up 40

But Tennessee, UNC, BYU? None look promising the way we've played the last month.
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I think you and others would be saying that about the seven seeds too.
 
#465      
EmeraldCityIllini
The 3-6 potential draws I'm seeing aren't promising.

Louisville being the likely draw...okay I'll take that. Hopefully Mikel Brown doesn't put up 40

But Tennessee, UNC, BYU? None look promising the way we've played the last month.
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Is Brown even playing?
 
#467      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illinisnake said:
We’re a 3 seed playing like a 7-9, sorry. If you disagree with that then you aren’t watching the games, body language or coaching. Love Underwood but let’s be real here.
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I hate that I agree. We are heading to San Pedro (Belize) next Thursday for vacation with my family, and we are all looking forward to watching the boys in the NCAA Tournament in perfect weather ... but my enthusiasm is so subdued compared to a few weeks ago. It just feels bizarre to be staring at a #3 seed at worst and not feeling all that confident that we will make the Sweet Sixteen ... but those gut feelings exist for a reason.

I want so desperately to believe the more optimistic spin on our prospects - we lost to a red hot Wisconsin team in OT, 4 of our 8 losses are in OT with a fifth being a buzzer beater, we still have so much upside if we can just address a few minor issues, we could fare a lot better vs. non-Big Ten teams, etc. I really do want to believe that, and I will probably convince myself it's true either way by mid-next week, haha. However, if you compare our last #3 seed (2024) to our last #6 seed (last year), my level of optimism is way closer to the latter - we absolutely COULD go on a deep run, we still have the tools, when we are hot shooting we can beat anyone ... but if I were a betting man, I would bank on us not doing what it takes on the brightest stage.

We keep beating this horse to death, but the difference between the team we looked like in early February vs. now isn't entirely described by analytics ... there's just something visibly off that is difficult to articulate but nonetheless super easy to see. And if it isn't fixed by next week, we won't be in the Sweet Sixteen. We aren't going to casually out-skill teams in March Madness, we will need the "nastiness" Underwood mentioned to return. ASAP.
 
#468      
AnnaMay
illini510 said:
Watch Miami get in tomorrow and you will see that you were wrong. Going undefeated in the regular season is an accomplishment rarely seen in the modern era of college basketball. I honestly don't care what conference they are in. Even if it was in the SWAC or MEAC, I'd be totally for the program getting a chance.

It's funny how you have no problem allowing a team into the tournament based on winning 3 or 4 games in a row in their conference tournament but your mind cannot be opened to the idea of letting in a team that won all 31 of its regular season games and rewarding that kind of an accomplishment.

You cannot say how Miami would or would not do against Power 5 Conference programs b/c they weren't given the opportunity. So, now their opportunity will come tomorrow. All bracketologists have them squarely in and the MAC commissioner is confident the MAC will get 2 teams in, so I guess you'll be proven wrong tomorrow.

If you actually watched Indiana, Auburn, New Mexico, Stanford, Cal(lately) play, you'd realize all of these teams have been playing like garbage. How you play now matters and it can impact how those teams are looked at relative to a team that went 31-0 in the regular season. It will be an excellent litmus test for sure. Those power conference teams got their shot to get enough wins and they all laid an egg. So, time to give the smaller school a shot that it has EARNED. You may not think much of 31-0 but a whole lot of other people do
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They might get in, because a lot of people like yourself makes stupid decisions off of emotions instead of data. You can certainly have your opinion that they earned a birth due to playing a bunch of glorified high school teams, but putting them in would be setting quite a precedent for mid major teams to just ignore playing anyone worth a damn in the non conference. Miami OH played 3 naia schools in their non conference schedule. Its pretty ridiculous.
 
#470      
Illini in Italy
I have completely run out of Eeyore awards for the year (I never anticipated needing so many, and just didn’t order enough). At the beginning of the season I stated that we needed to enjoy the ride, ‘cause it was gonna be a lotta ups and downs. Welp, here we are!
 
#474      
Illini2010-11
St Louis vs Dayton going down to wire. 59-59, two minutes left in A10 semis.

Edit: clearly I lost track of the thread I was in
 
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