Bracketology

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#101      
wc_illini
Fly Illini Fly! said:
SOS: Florida #6; Illinois #19.

WAB: Florida #4; Illinois #11.

SOR: Florida #5; Illinois #12.

Right now, Florida is unquestionably better. Now one’s debating that.

But his point referred to us winning the BTT and FLA losing their 1st game. In that scenario, those gaps would close significantly. Wouldn’t even rule out jumping them in a few of those.
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Yeah, I just crunched some numbers, and we would definitely pass them in WAB and KPI if they lose their first game and we beat Wisconsin, UM, and a top team from the other half. We might even pass them if they lost their second game.

I didn't bother to figure out how to calculate SOR, but a quick glance makes me think it's similar enough to the others that we'd pass FL in that as well.

Passing them in the efficiency metrics might require more than just us winning and FL losing- if we squeak by Wisconsin, UM, and whoever, our KenPom net efficiency would decrease. FL squeaking by Kentucky would hurt them, too, but not necessarily enough to drop them below us.

I won't bother with what our Quad records would look like since I think they're dumb and it isn't my job to care, though I know the committee will use them
 
#102      
Piotyr
Siena held off top seed Merrimack, should end up right about the same spot as Queens in the bracket. Going to be some weak 15 and 16 seeds this year.
 
#103      
wc_illini
wc_illini said:
Yeah, I just crunched some numbers, and we would definitely pass them in WAB and KPI if they lose their first game and we beat Wisconsin, UM, and a top team from the other half. We might even pass them if they lost their second game.

I didn't bother to figure out how to calculate SOR, but a quick glance makes me think it's similar enough to the others that we'd pass FL in that as well.

Passing them in the efficiency metrics might require more than just us winning and FL losing- if we squeak by Wisconsin, UM, and whoever, our KenPom net efficiency would decrease. FL squeaking by Kentucky would hurt them, too, but not necessarily enough to drop them below us.

I won't bother with what our Quad records would look like since I think they're dumb and it isn't my job to care, though I know the committee will use them
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*that should be "FL losing a close one to KY"
 
#104      
Piotyr
Gonzaga wins the WCC, but Santa Clara should be in as well.
 
#105      
Fly Illini Fly!
Piotyr said:
Gonzaga wins the WCC, but Santa Clara should be in as well.
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Why? For beating St Mary’s? They have 8 total losses — one of which an absolutely putrid quad 4 loss to 8-23 Loyola Chicago. How many of the teams they are stealing a spot from have a Q4 loss?

They also lost to ASU on a neutral court and have a defeat to New Mexico by 17. Aside from St Mary’s, their only quality wins are Xavier and Minnesota — two awful power conference teams.
 
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#106      
IlliniFan42
EmeraldCityIllini said:
You're leaving out the part where he said IF we won the Big Ten Tournament and Florida lost their first game.

That would move our Q1 to 10-7, while Florida's would be 11-6. And that would also assume we beat 1-seed in our path, Michigan.

A lot of ifs ofcourse, but just reminding what the original point was.
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Sure, circling back to that- the committee wouldn't care. They put such little value on tournament wins/losses that they'd chalk it up to tournament flukiness. Something about "we don't throw out the regular season just because you won three games in three days".
 
#107      
wc_illini
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Why? For beating St Mary’s? They have 8 total losses — one of which an absolutely putrid quad 4 loss to 8-23 Loyola Chicago. How many of the teams they are stealing a spot from have a Q4 loss?

They also lost to ASU on a neutral court and have a defeat to New Mexico by 17. Other than St Mary’s their only quality wins are Xavier and Minnesota.
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Their resume ranks, efficiency ranks, and NET all put them around 37, ahead of Auburn, Stanford, VTech, and SD State (you're right- none of those teams have a Q4 loss, but they are worse in other ways).

I have more of a problem with Miami OH getting in if they lose to Akron (not to beat that horse any more than it already has been).

1773204670468.png
 
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#108      
Piotyr
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Why? For beating St Mary’s? They have 8 total losses — one of which an absolutely putrid quad 4 loss to 8-23 Loyola Chicago. How many of the teams they are stealing a spot from have a Q4 loss?

They also lost to ASU on a neutral court and have a defeat to New Mexico by 17. Aside from St Mary’s, their only quality wins are Xavier and Minnesota — two awful power conference teams.
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38th in NET, 28th in BT, 37th in KP, 31st in WAB, 39th in SOR. They aren't stealing a spot from anyone. Have you seen the bottom of this bubble? They're clearly better than the rest of the bubble this year.
 
#109      
Fly Illini Fly!
wc_illini said:
Their resume ranks, efficiency ranks, and NET all put them around 37, ahead of Auburn, Stanford, VTech, and SD State (you're right- none of those teams have a Q4 loss, but they are worse in other ways).

I have more of a problem with Miami OH getting in if they lose to Akron (not to beat that horse any more than it already has been).

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Piotyr said:
38th in NET, 28th in BT, 37th in KP, 31st in WAB, 39th in SOR. They aren't stealing a spot from anyone. Have you seen the bottom of this bubble? They're clearly better than the rest of the bubble this year.
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Fine. I’ll concede if those are their efficiency metrics; they’re in.

Miami OH shouldn’t be though, since their metrics stink just like their resume.
 
#111      
illini510
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Fine. I’ll concede if those are their efficiency metrics; they’re in.

Miami OH shouldn’t be though, since their metrics stink just like their resume.
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Eye test says something different. By the way, if you actually watched their game at Ohio, it was made clear that they reached out to 84 power conference schools(I believe there's only 79 from what they said but probably reached out to a handful of other top mid major programs) and they were declined BYE games by every single one of those schools. Miami put out their schedule in October(which is very late in the process) because they were looking for any high major opponents to play them. Nobody wanted to play them. That's not their fault. Don't fault the mid major for that. That's on the high majors b/c the only BYE games they want to schedule is versus the cupcakes so they can beat them by 30 or 40 and help their NET ranking increase. That's the game being played.

As for Miami, they're good enough to be in the NCAA tournament. Eye test of having seen 5 of their games this season tells me all I need to know. Their 3rd string PG is better than Oregon's backup pg. They have a legit starting five that can be put up against other bubble teams no question. Going 31-0 in any league is reason enough to get an NCAA tournament bid. They've been winning all of their close games and it sounds like the pressure of continuing to go undefeated has definitely worn these players out but they still found a way to get the job done. That is to be commended and rewarded, not put down and mocked. No need for the average Auburns or Indiana's of the world to be put in over this team. They didn't get their chance to play a high major opponent. Now, the NCAA committee needs to give them that chance so they can show that they fully deserve to be there. They are at worst Round of 32 caliber and with the right matchup, Sweet 16 caliber
 
#112      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
NarrowJ said:
And he is saying if we win the BTT and they lose, so our Q1 record would be 10-7 to Florida 11-6

We would have nearly 3x the number of Q1A wins



They lost to Auburn (#40 NET), TCU (#41 NET), Missouri (#60 NET)

Our worst loss is to Wisconsin (#26 NET) and we have no other losses outside the top 17



Common opponents is pretty far down the list, but both teams losing to the same team isn't going to be considered much (one team lost by a few points more... that doesn't move the needle)



With Illinois adding 3 Q1 wins and Florida losing to (the example was Tenn) these would even out, if not have Illinois ahead and one or two of them (probably wouldn't catch them in SOS)

We'd definitely jump them in the NET (we're right behind them as it is)

Very small chance of the tournaments playing out exactly as it would need to for this scenario to occur, but if on Selection Sunday they're looking at something like this?

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Fly Illini Fly! said:
Just p.s. this wasn’t even my point, but his very own:
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If we win the big ten tournament, it means we have beaten scUM. In that case, all that would be required to jump Florida is that they lose their second game (their first game would probably be a Q2 opponent). They'll have 3 quad 1A wins compared to our 8, and quality of wins is not close.

I feel like the reason people are so lightning quick to claim our goals aren't in front of us is just to sleep better in the event we lose. A "it wasn't in play to begin with, so why bother" type of ordeal.
 
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#113      
aaeismacgychel
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Honestly, bring it. There will be just as many orange shirts in the building, and it will feel like any other NCAA Tournament game!
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St Louis has had a really shocking fall off these past couple weeks, but they really are not a 2nd round matchup I'd want to see. They are an extraordinarily good shooting team with 4 40%+ 3pt shooters led by very high volume 46.7% and 44.2% shooters. They play tight defense and don't give up offensive rebounds. And the major weakness they have is they're extremely loose with the ball and don't turn you over. And the two things we don't do are force turnovers or turn the ball over. So we really can't take advantage of their weaknesses.

In my opinion, St Louis just is not all that great a matchup for us. I would not want to see them as our 2nd round matchup.
 
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#114      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
mysterio2525 said:
don't think so. we would have to win the btt with a Michigan win and a win against MSU in the final likely (Purdue or Nebraska only other acceptable), Florida, uconn, Houston and Iowa State lose in their first round of tourney, we win big in each of our games to boost our metrics, and the committee put a heavy emphasis on the btt finals which they usually don't... all that would have to happen and I still put it at like 50/50
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IlliniFan42 said:
Florida's 11-5 Q1 is more impressive than our 7-7. Our 7-0 is better than their 6-1 in Q2.

Florida's losses are generally better: For just the other 1-seeds: Florida had a 6-pt neutral loss to Arizona and lost by 1 at Duke. We have a 14-point loss at home to Michigan.

For common opponents: We lost by 4 to Alabama, Florida beat them by 23. We lost by 13 to Uconn, Florida lost by 4. We beat TN by 13, Florida beat them by 24. The only common opponent we look better with is Mizzou.

So, you're right it wouldn't be close, you're just wrong in which way it would go.
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According to Torvik's teamcast, Illinois is projected to get the final #1 seed with the 3 additional wins over Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska.
 
#115      
the juiceman cometh
illini510 said:
Eye test says something different. By the way, if you actually watched their game at Ohio, it was made clear that they reached out to 84 power conference schools(I believe there's only 79 from what they said but probably reached out to a handful of other top mid major programs) and they were declined BYE games by every single one of those schools. Miami put out their schedule in October(which is very late in the process) because they were looking for any high major opponents to play them. Nobody wanted to play them. That's not their fault. Don't fault the mid major for that. That's on the high majors b/c the only BYE games they want to schedule is versus the cupcakes so they can beat them by 30 or 40 and help their NET ranking increase. That's the game being played.

As for Miami, they're good enough to be in the NCAA tournament. Eye test of having seen 5 of their games this season tells me all I need to know. Their 3rd string PG is better than Oregon's backup pg. They have a legit starting five that can be put up against other bubble teams no question. Going 31-0 in any league is reason enough to get an NCAA tournament bid. They've been winning all of their close games and it sounds like the pressure of continuing to go undefeated has definitely worn these players out but they still found a way to get the job done. That is to be commended and rewarded, not put down and mocked. No need for the average Auburns or Indiana's of the world to be put in over this team. They didn't get their chance to play a high major opponent. Now, the NCAA committee needs to give them that chance so they can show that they fully deserve to be there. They are at worst Round of 32 caliber and with the right matchup, Sweet 16 caliber
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It's BUY games not BYE. And this raises two questions for me.

1. What was their asking price? Is it possible they asked for too much?

2. Did they consider scheduling these as non-buy games (i.e. no fee).

I'm just a little skeptical of this narrative that everyone was afraid of Miami (OH). I mean, really? They didnt make the tournament last season and were #146 in KP. Michigan and Indiana scheduled them and got exactly what they paid for: blowout wins. I mean, Akron was a better team than them last season, may well be a better team than them now, and they got a game against Purdue. San Diego St., a very good mid major over the last few years, managed to schedule 2 B1G and 2 Big 12 teams. Something doesn't pass the sniff test.
 
#116      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
And he is saying if we win the BTT and they lose, so our Q1 record would be 10-7 to Florida 11-6

We would have nearly 3x the number of Q1A wins



They lost to Auburn (#40 NET), TCU (#41 NET), Missouri (#60 NET)

Our worst loss is to Wisconsin (#26 NET) and we have no other losses outside the top 17



Common opponents is pretty far down the list, but both teams losing to the same team isn't going to be considered much (one team lost by a few points more... that doesn't move the needle)



With Illinois adding 3 Q1 wins and Florida losing to (the example was Tenn) these would even out, if not have Illinois ahead and one or two of them (probably wouldn't catch them in SOS)

We'd definitely jump them in the NET (we're right behind them as it is)

Very small chance of the tournaments playing out exactly as it would need to for this scenario to occur, but if on Selection Sunday they're looking at something like this?

View attachment 48169
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How did you generate that graphic?
 
#117      
Fighter of the Nightman
aaeismacgychel said:
St Louis has had a really shocking fall off these past couple weeks, but they really are not a 2nd round matchup I'd want to see. They are an extraordinarily good shooting team with 4 40%+ 3pt shooters led by very high volume 46.7% and 44.2% shooters. They play tight defense and don't give up offensive rebounds. And the major weakness they have is they're extremely loose with the ball and don't turn you over. And the two things we don't do are force turnovers or turn the ball over. So we really can't take advantage of their weaknesses.

In my opinion, St Louis just is not all that great a matchup for us. I would not want to see them as our 2nd round matchup.
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Yeah, I really haven't watched them at all and couldn't speak to the matchup! I was strictly speaking about the crowd. I think people really tend to overrate just how many more fans are ready to mobilize and show up for "big schools" that have decent fan presences in a given MSA than "small schools" that are right in the MSA. Just as the Crossroads Classic in Indianapolis always had more Indiana and Purdue fans than Butler fans (my sister is a Bulldog and I love BU, so no disrespect!), I think there would similarly be more Mizzou and Illini fans than SLU fans at an event like that in St. Louis. Not only is it a matter of so many more alumni for the bigger schools (500K+ living alumni for Illinois vs. 140K+ for SLU) and not only do the bigger schools have SO many more non-alum fans vs. the smaller schools, but I think fans of Power Conference programs have just literally learned the "habit" of showing up to things like this more often. I'd imagine SLU would have a very solid showing with a lot of very excited fans, but I also think some SLU fans who weren't expecting a year like this could experience sticker shock with ticket prices that Illinois, Iowa State, etc. fans always knew they'd have to pay.
 
#119      
Illini2010-11
illini510 said:
As for Miami, they're good enough to be in the NCAA tournament. Eye test of having seen 5 of their games this season tells me all I need to know. Their 3rd string PG is better than Oregon's backup pg. They have a legit starting five that can be put up against other bubble teams no question.
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Not sure that is a winning argument comparing to a team that finished 12-20...

I am going on record thinking that Miami (Ohio) loses before the MAC Champ game. They have sneaked by so many games already, that it would not be surprising to see them lose to Toledo or Bowling Green.
 
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#120      
Piotyr
the juiceman cometh said:
Is this a really weak bubble this year, or is it always this weak and I haven't been paying close attention?
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It's always this weak, we're just not used to Illinois being so far ahead of the cut line that the cut line looks awful in comparison.

This is also why I don't feel like giving a bid to a smaller conference champion that loses in their tournament is stealing a bid from anyone. Nobody on that level has earned anything. At least if you win a conference, you earned something.
 
#121      
Piotyr
Illini2010-11 said:
Not sure that is a winning argument comparing to a team that finished 12-20...

I am going on record thinking that Ohio loses before the MAC Champ game. They have sneaked by so many games already, that it would not be surprising to see them lose to Toledo or Bowling Green.
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Ohio is playing Kent State tomorrow, and Kent State is favored, so there's a very good chance they lose before the MAC championship game.
 
#122      
Illini2010-11
the juiceman cometh said:
It's BUY games not BYE. And this raises two questions for me.

1. What was their asking price? Is it possible they asked for too much?

2. Did they consider scheduling these as non-buy games (i.e. no fee).

I'm just a little skeptical of this narrative that everyone was afraid of Miami (OH). I mean, really? They didnt make the tournament last season and were #146 in KP. Michigan and Indiana scheduled them and got exactly what they paid for: blowout wins. I mean, Akron was a better team than them last season, may well be a better team than them now, and they got a game against Purdue. San Diego St., a very good mid major over the last few years, managed to schedule 2 B1G and 2 Big 12 teams. Something doesn't pass the sniff test.
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Not buying that argument either. No major conference team was going to sweat playing them going into season. It is more likely that they were unreasonable in the negotiation process. It is quite telling that they put together one of the weakest schedules when three of their games do not even show up on the NET ranking system.
 
#123      
Illini2010-11
Piotyr said:
Ohio is playing Kent State tomorrow, and Kent State is favored, so there's a very good chance they lose before the MAC championship game.
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Whoops. That is very true...really went out on the limb there.

Sorry, meant Miami (Ohio). Updating for clarity.
 
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#125      
Piotyr
Disclaimer: Miami has a WAB rating high enough that they are making the NCAA's even if they lose by 20 to UMass. And I have no problem with this, as they have the novelty of getting through the regular season undefeated which is hard, even with as insanely easy as their schedule has been this season. And their argument for a bid would be better if they had won more than 4 games by 20 points this season against this schedule.

However, Miami has the 364th non-conference schedule in the country. That's hard to do on accident. They scheduled zero games against the five power conferences. They scheduled 1 total game against the next 5 respectable mid major conferences (MWC, WCC, A10, MVC, American), despite there being plenty of close geographical options in those leagues as well. The game they scheduled was against 3-28 Air Force out of Colorado, ranked 349 in NET, by far the worst of any mid major. They scheduled 0 total games against the next 5 ranked conferences (WAC, CUSA, Big West, Ivy, Big Sky) despite the certainty that none of them would be too good to play them.

Miami had two options: schedule at least some decent teams, even away, or play the schedule they had and win convincingly in those games. They have been unable to do that, so even with their lofty WAB, they're barely a top 100 team, and probably should deservedly end up in one of the play-ins if they make the tourney.

However, if Miami FL is a 7 seed, go ahead and make them a 10 seed and give us the Miami-Miami game we all deserve in St. Louis for the tournament, so Illinois can end this Miami business handily that weekend.
 
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