Bracketology

Second place is 1st loser said:

It's a tough call. If you let them in, you're setting an awfully dangerous precedent. They have beaten absolutely nobody this year and now have an awful loss. If we got left out because we were on the bubble, would you feel the same way? It's always easier to make that statement when it's not our team being left out.

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It’s a tough call. It really is. Unfortunately, I just went through their schedule and they haven’t played or beaten ANYONE of even moderate quality. There is literally not a meaningful win on their resume. Not one.

I’m very confident that if Northwestern played that schedule they would have a similar record.

PleaseMakeABowlGame said:

People here will disagree, but if Illinois wins the big ten tournament… and FLA doesn’t win the SEC, and UConn loses to St John’s in the Big East

I find it extremely hard to believe Illinois won’t have a legitimate shot at a 1 (especially with a win over Michigan).

And no we won’t need to win each game by an average of 20 points.

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Iowa State making a pretty good case for a 1 right now with 2nd blowout in 2 days

NarrowJ said:

Iowa State making a pretty good case for a 1 right now with 2nd blowout in 2 days

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They’ll lose to Arizona.

Figured after this morning's happenings it would be a good time for a metrics bracket analysis.

First, the current auto bids (highest NET as of this morning for any team still eligible in that conference, locked auto bids in bold). Lot of upsets here, so things moved around quite a bit at the bottom of the bracket:
ACC - Duke (1)
B1G - Michigan (2)
B12 - Arizona (3)
SEC - Florida (4)
WCC - Gonzaga (6)
BE - UConn (9)
A10 - Saint Louis (28)
MW - Utah State (29)
American - South Florida (47)
MAC - Akron (53)
SLnd - McNeese (57)
Ivy - Yale (65)
MVC - Northern Iowa (71)
BSth - High Point (74)
WAC - Utah Valley (83)
CAA - Hofstra (87)
CUSA - Sam Houston (100)
BW - Hawaii (111)
Summit - North Dakota State (115)
SB - Troy (126)
Horz - Wright St. (127)
BSky - Idaho (142)
OVC - Tennessee State (173)
MAAC - Siena (182)
SoCon - Furman (186)
ASun - Queens (190)
NEC - LIU (196)
MEAC - Howard (200)
AEast - UMBC (202)
Pat - Lehigh (275)
SWAC - Southern (278)

For selecting the rest of the at-large field, I'm looking at results-based metrics. The three that the committee uses are Strength of Record (SOR), Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and KPI. Using an average of those 3 metrics, here are the top 37 at large teams (not including the surrogate auto bids above). Remember this has nothing to do with seeding, just getting into the tournament:
1. Houston
2. Michigan State
3. Alabama
4. Virginia
5. Nebraska
6. Illinois
7. Iowa State
8. Purdue
9. Kansas
10. Vanderbilt
11. Arkansas
12. North Carolina
13. Texas Tech
14. St. John's
15. BYU
16. Villanova
17. Wisconsin
18. Louisville
19. Tennessee
20. Saint Mary's
21. Georgia
22. Miami FL
23. Kentucky
24. Clemson
25. TCU
26. UCF
27. Miami OH
28. UCLA
29. Ohio State
30. VCU
31. NC State
32. Santa Clara
33. Iowa
34. Missouri
35. Auburn
36. Texas A&M
37. SMU

Just missed:
38. New Mexico
39. South Florida
40. Texas
41. San Diego State
42. Seton Hall
43. Belmont
44. Tulsa
45. Oklahoma State
46. Stanford
47. Cal
48. Indiana

Indiana really screwed themselves yesterday, wasted a big opportunity. SMU can't help themselves any more, just waiting and hoping that nobody below them wins and no other bids are stolen (I have a feeling both things will happen). Texas is below the cut line and can't help themselves. Seton Hall can make a run yet, and the MWC teams can make runs (or just win their auto bid to be sure). If South Florida-Tulsa is the American final, that could be interesting for both teams. I have a hard time seeing bids come from outside this group, though (sorry, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma).

As for seeding, I like to do that strictly based off efficiency ratings (a more effective measure as to the quality of a team). Here's the seeding right now (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):

1 (1). Duke (+0)
1 (1). Michigan (+0)
3 (1). Arizona (-0)
5 (1). Florida (+0)
4 (2). Illinois (+0)
6 (2). Houston (+0)
7 (2). Iowa State (+0)
8 (2). Purdue (+0)
9 (3). UConn (+1)
10 (3). Gonzaga (-1)
11 (3). Michigan State (+0)
12 (3). Nebraska (+2)
13 (4). Texas Tech (-1)
14 (4). Vanderbilt (+1)
15 (4). Louisville (-2)
16 (4). Alabama (+1)
17 (5). Tennessee (-1)
18 (5). Virginia (+0)
19 (5). Arkansas (+0)
20 (5). Kansas (+0)
21 (6). St. John's (+0)
22 (6). Saint Mary's (+0)
23 (6). Wisconsin (+0)
24 (6). Iowa (+0)
25 (7). Ohio State (+1)
26 (7). North Carolina (-1)
26 (7). BYU (+0)
28 (7). Kentucky (+0)
29 (8). UCLA (+0)
30 (8). Villanova (+0)
31 (8). Miami FL (+0)
32 (8). Georgia (+0)
33 (9). Utah State (+0)
34 (9). Clemson (+2)
35 (9). Santa Clara (+0)
36 (9). Texas A&M (+2)
37 (10). NC State (+0)
38 (10). Saint Louis (-4)
39 (10). Auburn (+1)
40 (10). SMU (NEW)
41 (11). TCU (+0)
42 (11*). VCU (+0)
43 (11). South Florida (NEW)
44 (11*). Missouri (-1)
45 (11*). UCF (+0)
46 (11*). Miami OH (+0)
47 (12). Akron (+0)
48 (12). McNeese (+0)
47 (12). Northern Iowa (+0)
50 (12). Yale (+0)
51 (13). Utah Valley (+0)
52 (13). High Point (+0)
53 (13). Hofstra (+0)
54 (13). Sam Houston (NEW)
55 (14). Hawaii (+0)
56 (14). North Dakota State (+0)
57 (14). Troy (+4)
58 (14). Wright State (+2)
59 (15). Idaho (NEW)
60 (15). Tennessee State (+3)
61 (15). Siena (NEW)
62 (15). Furman (NEW)
63 (16). Queens (NEW)
64 (16). LIU (+1)
65 (16*). Howard (+1)
66 (16*). UMBC (+1)
67 (16*). Lehigh (NEW)
68 (16*). Southern (NEW)

Some teams that had worthy efficiency metrics but didn't have the results to make the field (aka they were above some of these teams in efficiency but not results): Cincinnati, Indiana, Texas, San Diego State, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Baylor

Notes:
- The bunches of conference upsets made for 6 new teams at the bottom of the bracket, and the 15 and 16 seeds will be abnormally weak this year as a result. The 5th seed in the Big Sky (Idaho) is suddenly just the 10th worst team in the field.
- Take a look at the 15 seeds, because Illinois is probably getting one of them as a first round opponent in St. Louis. Closest geographically is Tennessee State, but that's the closest for all of the 2 seeds, so someone is getting Idaho and liking it.
- There are still some teams out of the field that can play their way in, and there is a definite possibility of more bid thieving in the A10 or MWC, as neither Saint Louis nor Utah State finished the year especially strong.

AnnaMay said:

If they get put in as an at large, every mid major college team should just ignore playing against anyone worth a damn. There is no way they should be an at large.

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I mean, it's not like this hasn't happened before. In fact a lot of P4 teams have tried this approach. But then they get whooped in conference. Last one I really remember was Minnesota's non-con in 2024: 1 single Quad 2 game. This was actually a somewhat popular approach for bubble type teams in the 00s and 10s because of the "20 wins and in" philosophy. Yes Miami's schedule is terrible but they also won all their regular season games. Should be an easy in in my opinion.

Miami of Ohio is an unproven 31-1 team. Indiana is very proven to be mediocre and undeserving 18-14 team. I'll take the unproven one.

I said it last week — Texas Tech needed to beat BYU. If they won that game, Kansas would’ve played Iowa State, not Texas Tech. KU is the better team.

Second place is 1st loser said:

It's a tough call. If you let them in, you're setting an awfully dangerous precedent. They have beaten absolutely nobody this year and now have an awful loss. If we got left out because we were on the bubble, would you feel the same way? It's always easier to make that statement when it's not our team being left out.

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I can say with certainty if we were 3-12 against Quad 1 teams and a 18-14 record and just lost to Northwestern in our first BTT game, almost all fans on here would rather see Miami play in the tourney than us. I mean we'd be talking if the Mayer, Skyy, Epps team was 3 games worse would we want to see them be on the right side of the bubble instead of a 31-1 midmajor. We resolutely wouldn't.

OnlyOrange said:

Most years? Don't put them in, the metrics aren't supporting it.

This year? The bubble is the weakest I've ever seen. Put them in over another terrible P4 team.

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This is really the only argument in favor of them being in that makes any sense, and I also think it's where I'm at. The bubble is truly horrendous this year. Let's see what they can do (spoiler alert, it's not gonna be much).

kleine said:

I think setting a precedent of "if you don't lose a game until the conference tournament you're in" is totally fine. how often will that happen? Regardless of their non-conference schedule they still won every. single. game they played and that should get them in - not every at-large qualifier is going to be a threat to win the whole thing, let the fans of an undefeated team dance

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1. If they were undefeated they would be dancing.

2. The problem is where does it end. What if they were 30-1 and lost in the tournament? You'd all be saying "They won 30 games, let them in." 29-2, then win a game in tournament before getting knocked out? Same deal. They win 29? "That's more than anyone else, let them in!"

3. One of the fun things about the Tourney is upsets. Miami (OH) isn't upsetting anyone. They aren't that good. They're going to get manhandled. There are better mid-major teams you could put in that might make their game fun.

NarrowJ said:

Iowa State making a pretty good case for a 1 right now with 2nd blowout in 2 days

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Blowout of a bad ASU and blowout of a mortally wounded TT team.

the juiceman cometh said:

This is really the only argument in favor of them being in that makes any sense, and I also think it's where I'm at. The bubble is truly horrendous this year. Let's see what they can do (spoiler alert, it's not gonna be much).



1. If they were undefeated they would be dancing.

2. The problem is where does it end. What if they were 30-1 and lost in the tournament? You'd all be saying "They won 30 games, let them in." 29-2, then win a game in tournament before getting knocked out? Same deal. They win 29? "That's more than anyone else, let them in!"

3. One of the fun things about the Tourney is upsets. Miami (OH) isn't upsetting anyone. They aren't that good. They're going to get manhandled. There are better mid-major teams you could put in that might make their game fun.

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Absolutely correct. They (like every other team where conference tourney dictates autobid) controlled their own destiny. Now it is in the collective Committee hands.

To make matters worse, Miami is not a 30 win team (at least according to how the committee views wins). They will be seen as a 28-1 team. What Miami did in the regular season is impressive in winning all their games, but the eye test and predictive metrics show Miami as very overrated. The weak bubble is their best friend.

NarrowJ said:

Iowa State making a pretty good case for a 1 right now with 2nd blowout in 2 days

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They aren’t getting a 1 seed because of one extended weekend. Some of yall need to stop putting so much emphasis on conference tournaments. They don’t mean as much as you think to the committee.

Chase321 said:

Blowout of a bad ASU and blowout of a mortally wounded TT team.

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Fully realize it, but the metrics are metrics... blowouts move the needle even vs bad opponent... they jumped from 9th to 7th in Torvik after beating ASU... they are still only 8th in NET though today... likely to move up tomorrow though

Chase321 said:

Blowout of a bad ASU and blowout of a mortally wounded TT team.

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Fully realize it, but the metrics are metrics... blowouts move the needle even vs bad opponent... they jumped from 9th to 7th in Torvik after beating ASU... they are still only 8th in NET though today... likely to move up tomorrow though

fatboyslim said:

They aren’t getting a 1 seed because of one extended weekend. Some of yall need to stop putting so much emphasis on conference tournaments. They don’t mean as much as you think to the committee.

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Florida would have to lose, so its currently moot, but they're making a case for it should that come to fruition... the conference tournament games don't matter any more than regular games do, but they do matter, lets not pretend there isn't still movement happening lol

I’m not a Miami (Ohio) hater and maybe they could not get anyone to play them. But I looked at the schedules of the other top midmajors.
Miami was 1, Gonzaga 2 and St. Mary’s 3 in the mid-major rankings. I skipped Gonzaga and St. Mary’s as well as #7 Santa Clara because they played each other, but I will note all 3 played high majors such as Vandy, Arizona State and Minnesota.

#4 Akron played Purdue
#5 Liberty played NC State
#8 Yale played Alabama
#11 McNeese State played Michigan
#12 ND State played Gonzaga and Nebraska
#13 Utah Valley State played San Diego State

I just find it odd that these other good mid-majors could find better competition to play.

aaeismacgychel said:

I can say with certainty if we were 3-12 against Quad 1 teams and a 18-14 record and just lost to Northwestern in our first BTT game, almost all fans on here would rather see Miami play in the tourney than us. I mean we'd be talking if the Mayer, Skyy, Epps team was 3 games worse would we want to see them be on the right side of the bubble instead of a 31-1 midmajor. We resolutely wouldn't.

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I'd love to see a poll of that. We would have had 3 more quad 1 wins than them. They literally played ZERO quad 1 games. How can you tell what they would have done with that schedule? Would they be 0-15? What would the 18-14 team do with the Miami(OH) schedule? 32-0?

They scheduled nobody and this is what happens when you do that. Gonzaga plays a dumpster fire conference schedule, but they load up in the non conference games. Maybe Miami(OH) should have done that?

fatboyslim said:

They aren’t getting a 1 seed because of one extended weekend. Some of yall need to stop putting so much emphasis on conference tournaments. They don’t mean as much as you think to the committee.

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I mean they do matter just as much as any reg season game.

NarrowJ said:

Fully realize it, but the metrics are metrics... blowouts move the needle even vs bad opponent... they jumped from 9th to 7th in Torvik after beating ASU... they are still only 8th in NET though today... likely to move up tomorrow though

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I think you underestimate the gap between teams at the top. They moved from 7th in Torvik to 7th today with a 22 point blowout of #11 Texas Tech. We're far enough into the season now where one result is 3% of a profile, so it can't move the needle that much.

If ISU wants a 1seed, they'll need to beat Arizona and win their conf tournament. And would need FLA to lose theirs.

You could argue the same thing with Illinois (who'll need to knock Michigan).

Piotyr said:

I think you underestimate the gap between teams at the top. They moved from 7th in Torvik to 7th today with a 22 point blowout of #11 Texas Tech. We're far enough into the season now where one result is 3% of a profile, so it can't move the needle that much.

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I said they went up from 9th to 7th after ASU, not TT… which is correct

Their BARTHAG improved from 9539 to 9609 after ASU and improved to 9632 after TT

Not moving the needle a ton… but it’s not insignificant either

Second place is 1st loser said:

I'd love to see a poll of that. We would have had 3 more quad 1 wins than them. They literally played ZERO quad 1 games. How can you tell what they would have done with that schedule? Would they be 0-15? What would the 18-14 team do with the Miami(OH) schedule? 32-0?

They scheduled nobody and this is what happens when you do that. Gonzaga plays a dumpster fire conference schedule, but they load up in the non conference games. Maybe Miami(OH) should have done that?

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I agree with you. I have a hard time believing that if we had a team who's net was 13 spots better and kenpom was 49 spots better that a majority of fans would be pulling for the other team over ours.

kleine said:

I think setting a precedent of "if you don't lose a game until the conference tournament you're in" is totally fine. how often will that happen? Regardless of their non-conference schedule they still won every. single. game they played and that should get them in - not every at-large qualifier is going to be a threat to win the whole thing, let the fans of an undefeated team dance

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I get the sentiment, and like to see the Cinderella teams in the tournament. They had a clear path to the autobid and unfortunately lost. You could convince me the conference made the wrong decision for who gets their autobid. After that, they're thrown to the wolves with everyone else and have to stack up. Who did you play and who did you beat? The metrics don't look good either. I really don't see how the committee can put them in.

I’m not a Miami (Ohio) hater and maybe they could not get anyone to play them. But I looked at the schedules of the other top midmajors.
Miami was 1, Gonzaga 2 and St. Mary’s 3 in the mid-major rankings. I skipped Gonzaga and St. Mary’s as well as #7 Santa Clara because they played each other, but I will note all 3 played high majors such as Vandy, Arizona State and Minnesota.

#4 Akron played Purdue
#5 Liberty played NC State
#8 Yale played Alabama
#11 McNeese State played Michigan
#12 ND State played Gonzaga and Nebraska
#13 Utah Valley State played San Diego State

I just find it odd that these other good mid-majors could find better competition to play.

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Probably because their AD is lying. If he was going to make the claim that people didnt want to play them because they were afraid to lose, he should've named the school's to put the pressure on them in the years going forward. He made a baseless claim thats proven wrong by all the other mid majors who didnt have an issue with this. He was looking for a cop out.

aaeismacgychel said:

I mean, it's not like this hasn't happened before. In fact a lot of P4 teams have tried this approach. But then they get whooped in conference. Last one I really remember was Minnesota's non-con in 2024: 1 single Quad 2 game. This was actually a somewhat popular approach for bubble type teams in the 00s and 10s because of the "20 wins and in" philosophy. Yes Miami's schedule is terrible but they also won all their regular season games. Should be an easy in in my opinion.

Miami of Ohio is an unproven 31-1 team. Indiana is very proven to be mediocre and undeserving 18-14 team. I'll take the unproven one.

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Miami OH is just as proven as Indiana. They both played 30+ games and we have a ton of data telling us how well they played in those games. Good teams whoop bad teams. That correlation is very high. Not perfect but very high. Miami OH squeaked by a lot of bad teams (dune very bad) and had very few blow out wins.

I'm not arguing for or against them getting in. I think the committee has a tough decision on their handsbecause this is a pretty unique scenario. If they do make it I'll be rooting for them for sure.

My guess is they get put in Dayton. Committee basically says "We don't know what to do with you so we will put you in because you had a great season, but you will be the last 4 in because of your weak SOS."

AnnaMay said:

If they get put in as an at large, every mid major college team should just ignore playing against anyone worth a damn. There is no way they should be an at large.

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How many mid majors in the last decade have won every single conference game?

theNewGuy said:

How many mid majors in the last decade have won every single conference game?

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Oral Roberts 22-23
Murray State 21-22
South Dakota State 21-22
Gonzaga 20-21 (I don't count this)
Jackson St. and Prairie View A&M 20-21 * same conference weird COVID stuff only counting 1
Dayton 19-20
New Mexico State 19-20
Wofford 18-19
Gonzaga 18-19 (I don't count this)
Vermont 16-17
Princeton 16-17

So 9 times in the last decade that any Division 1 team has won every single conference game.