Iowa State leads Illinois in exactly zero metrics right now, this is just typical Lunardi overreacting to conference tournament results.
Bracketology
- Status
I'd welcome playing a Lville and Mizzou winner.
Mostly because I doubt Brown is coming back. But I also need to actually see Pat Kelsey win a (singular) tournament game before I'd bank on that matchup anyway.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
If we view the metrics as a guideline, I think we are right to be worried about Iowa State, especially if we lose tomorrow. If we lost tomorrow and they made it to Saturday of the Big XII Tournament, we'd have two more losses than them, likely one fewer Quad 1 win (it's 7 to 7 right now) and noticeably fewer Quad 2 wins (6 vs. 10 as of today). Iowa State could very well also get close enough to us in the NET that the Committee wouldn't let it be too much of a factor, as we are currently #5 and they're #8 before updating from today's results.
I definitely agree that it is overreacting to immediately assume they've definitively jumped us before we've even gotten a shot at Wisconsin, but they're definitely surging and making a case. We need to win tomorrow to "punch back," as it were.
If we lose tomorrow and Iowa State wins I think we will remain a 3 seed. We win tomorrow, I think we will stick the 2 seed regardless of what Iowa State does.
Or Indiana! But I do NOT want to see Bruce Pearl on CBS of all things, on selection Sunday. What a disgrace he is to honesty (while an assistant at Iowa). And he will just whine about Auburn not getting into the Tourney. So I will likely boycott the Selection Sunday show and read about it on IllinoisLoyalty!!!
We have to control the controllables. Take care of Wisconsin and we’ll be in good shape. It’s very likely Arizona dog walks Iowa State tomorrow.
that means Illinois loses to Wisconsin
AND
Iowa State beats Arizona.
Both would be classified as pretty significant upsets.
I think it's entirely possible they could. 16 chances to win only 4 games? Auburn is 3-2 against Q2, Miami is 2-0. Auburn also has a Q3 loss. To say it's completely unreasonable Miami could match Auburn's 4-12 performance against Q1 teams, rather discounts the fact that Miami has a better record against Q2 and below than Auburn does. It's an unknown because we have no data of Miami against Q1 opponents. You can try utilizing Q3 and Q4 metrics to try and make correlations but there is no direct comparison there.
Let's flip this a bit. Say Auburn plays Miami's schedule. Are we sure they go 31-1? They're 3-2 in Q2 and 4-1 in Q3. If they win with those similar ratios, they finish Miami's schedule 1-1 against Q2 and 9-2 against Q3 for a projected 28-3 record.
All I am saying is, making grand assumptions on what Miami is even capable of against high level competition because of lack of available data instead of trying to compare the data that is available might not be appropriate here.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Some borderline NET things that could affect us...
- #15 Texas Tech clings to Quad 1A status, but they will likely fall out of the top 15 by Selection Sunday and give us one fewer Quad 1A win after they got demolished today.
- The computers continue to like 10-loss Tennessee (#20 NET right now), and that is keeping our win in Nashville as (relatively) safe Quad 1A for now.
- #26 Wisconsin can likely manage to stay in the top 30 until Sunday now, meaning we will have zero losses that aren't Quad 1.
- #30 Ohio State was likely to remain top 40 anyway, but they pretty much clinched that by beating Iowa today. It's nice to keep that win in Columbus as Quad 1A.
- #34 UCLA has slowly creeped up and seems to have stabilized inside the top 40, making our road loss there Quad 1A.
- #59 Missouri losing today officially killed any chance of them moving into the top 50 and making Braggin' Rights Quad 1. Thanks for nothin', Miznoz.
- #63 Northwestern jumped up 5 points and appears safely in the top 75, giving us a Quad 1 win in Evanston and Quad 2 win in Champaign.
- #78 USC actually moved up one spot, but they almost certainly will not get into the top 75, taking away what was once a Quad 1 win in LA.
- #135 Maryland is BARELY a Quad 2 win now, but it falls back to Quad 3 if they drop even one spot.
- Similarly, #136 Penn State is one spot from giving us another Quad 2 win.
Here is our updated results by Quad, which I have not done in a really long time!
Quad 1A | 6-6
#1-15 Home, #1-25 Neutral, #1-40 Away
L 70-84 vs. #2 Michigan
L 61-74 vs. #9 UConn (New York, NY)
W 88-82 at #10 Purdue
L 82-85 in OT at #11 Michigan State
W 78-69 at #12 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #12 Nebraska
W 81-77 vs. #15 Texas Tech
L 86-90 vs. #17 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W 75-62 vs. #20 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 75-69 at #25 Iowa
vs. #26 Wisconsin (Chicago, IL - BTT)
W 88-80 at #30 Ohio State
L 94-95 in OT at #34 UCLA
Other Quad 1 | 1-1
#16-30 Home, #26-50 Neutral, #41-75 Away
L 90-92 in OT vs. #26 Wisconsin
W 79-68 at #63 Northwestern
---> Total Quad 1 | 7-7
Quad 2 | 6-0
#31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
W 71-51 vs. #41 Indiana
W 75-66 vs. #58 Washington
W 91-48 vs. #59 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W 84-44 vs. #63 Northwestern
W 101-65 at #78 USC
W 78-72 at #135 Maryland
Quad 3 | 6-0
#76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
W 77-67 vs. #80 Minnesota
W 80-54 vs. #110 Oregon
W 87-73 vs. #125 UTRGV
W 81-55 vs. #131 Rutgers
W 89-70 vs. #135 Maryland
W 73-65 at #136 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
Quad 4 | 5-0
#161+ Home, #201+ Neutral, #241+ Away
W 98-58 vs. #196 LIU
W 84-65 vs. #227 Colgate
W 113-70 vs. #248 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #278 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #347 Jackson State
So looking ONLY on the bright side here!
- Playing in 12 Quad 1A games and winning 6 of them is great, especially when you consider that two of the most impressive wins (at Purdue and at Nebraska) were on the road without a starter and two of the losses were by one possession in overtime on the road (at MSU and at UCLA), one of which was also without a starter. I know they say they don't consider a "timeline" of results and just look at a "total body of work," but I have always felt like that is more directed at a consideration for unbalanced conference schedules where some teams get their difficult games in January vs. others in late February, etc. In other words, I DO think the Committee at least somewhat considers if a team was able to improve throughout the year ... and at least with Quad 1A games, we have. Alabama pulled away from us in our own backyard and UConn manhandled us at MSG, but every Quad 1A game since then has been a win or a SUPER close loss with the exception of Michigan ... and the Committee isn't going to penalize anyone for losing to Michigan.
- If you look at the past NET archives, they lay things out in a different format, and right front and center they have "Road Record" ... which tells me the Committee really tries to look at how a team plays away from home, given that is where the Tournament will be (and the pre-NET Committee has explicitly stated that they see value in a team's road/neutral record, IIRC). We are a very impressive 8-2 on the road (for a comparison, Michigan State is 6-4 and Iowa State is 5-5), and that includes a 5-2 record vs. Quad 1 teams in THEIR gyms, with the only two losses being in OT. I will choose to believe that is very impressive to the Committee.
- This one is somewhat needless to say, but we have nothing approaching a bad loss on our resume. We're 11-0 vs. Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams, and our 6-0 record vs. Quad 2 teams is by an average margin of over 25 PPG! When you throw in the fact that we've held our own vs. the best of the best, that - to me - looks like the resume deserving of a #2 seed.
- Lastly, we don't have to be done yet! I'm a big believer that BTT results through Saturday are absolutely considered and that BTT results through Friday are just as meaningful as any other games all year. We have at least one Quad 1A opportunity coming up tomorrow, and then you take your shot at Michigan. If we can go 1-1, we'd have 7 Quad 1A wins ... that is huge. For reference, Iowa State currently has 4, UConn has 5, Florida has 3, Houston has 4, etc. If we took down Michigan, we could legitimately make a run at the top #2 seed...
- #15 Texas Tech clings to Quad 1A status, but they will likely fall out of the top 15 by Selection Sunday and give us one fewer Quad 1A win after they got demolished today.
- The computers continue to like 10-loss Tennessee (#20 NET right now), and that is keeping our win in Nashville as (relatively) safe Quad 1A for now.
- #26 Wisconsin can likely manage to stay in the top 30 until Sunday now, meaning we will have zero losses that aren't Quad 1.
- #30 Ohio State was likely to remain top 40 anyway, but they pretty much clinched that by beating Iowa today. It's nice to keep that win in Columbus as Quad 1A.
- #34 UCLA has slowly creeped up and seems to have stabilized inside the top 40, making our road loss there Quad 1A.
- #59 Missouri losing today officially killed any chance of them moving into the top 50 and making Braggin' Rights Quad 1. Thanks for nothin', Miznoz.
- #63 Northwestern jumped up 5 points and appears safely in the top 75, giving us a Quad 1 win in Evanston and Quad 2 win in Champaign.
- #78 USC actually moved up one spot, but they almost certainly will not get into the top 75, taking away what was once a Quad 1 win in LA.
- #135 Maryland is BARELY a Quad 2 win now, but it falls back to Quad 3 if they drop even one spot.
- Similarly, #136 Penn State is one spot from giving us another Quad 2 win.
Here is our updated results by Quad, which I have not done in a really long time!
Quad 1A | 6-6
#1-15 Home, #1-25 Neutral, #1-40 Away
L 70-84 vs. #2 Michigan
L 61-74 vs. #9 UConn (New York, NY)
W 88-82 at #10 Purdue
L 82-85 in OT at #11 Michigan State
W 78-69 at #12 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #12 Nebraska
W 81-77 vs. #15 Texas Tech
L 86-90 vs. #17 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W 75-62 vs. #20 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 75-69 at #25 Iowa
vs. #26 Wisconsin (Chicago, IL - BTT)
W 88-80 at #30 Ohio State
L 94-95 in OT at #34 UCLA
Other Quad 1 | 1-1
#16-30 Home, #26-50 Neutral, #41-75 Away
L 90-92 in OT vs. #26 Wisconsin
W 79-68 at #63 Northwestern
---> Total Quad 1 | 7-7
Quad 2 | 6-0
#31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
W 71-51 vs. #41 Indiana
W 75-66 vs. #58 Washington
W 91-48 vs. #59 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W 84-44 vs. #63 Northwestern
W 101-65 at #78 USC
W 78-72 at #135 Maryland
Quad 3 | 6-0
#76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
W 77-67 vs. #80 Minnesota
W 80-54 vs. #110 Oregon
W 87-73 vs. #125 UTRGV
W 81-55 vs. #131 Rutgers
W 89-70 vs. #135 Maryland
W 73-65 at #136 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
Quad 4 | 5-0
#161+ Home, #201+ Neutral, #241+ Away
W 98-58 vs. #196 LIU
W 84-65 vs. #227 Colgate
W 113-70 vs. #248 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #278 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #347 Jackson State
So looking ONLY on the bright side here!
- Playing in 12 Quad 1A games and winning 6 of them is great, especially when you consider that two of the most impressive wins (at Purdue and at Nebraska) were on the road without a starter and two of the losses were by one possession in overtime on the road (at MSU and at UCLA), one of which was also without a starter. I know they say they don't consider a "timeline" of results and just look at a "total body of work," but I have always felt like that is more directed at a consideration for unbalanced conference schedules where some teams get their difficult games in January vs. others in late February, etc. In other words, I DO think the Committee at least somewhat considers if a team was able to improve throughout the year ... and at least with Quad 1A games, we have. Alabama pulled away from us in our own backyard and UConn manhandled us at MSG, but every Quad 1A game since then has been a win or a SUPER close loss with the exception of Michigan ... and the Committee isn't going to penalize anyone for losing to Michigan.
- If you look at the past NET archives, they lay things out in a different format, and right front and center they have "Road Record" ... which tells me the Committee really tries to look at how a team plays away from home, given that is where the Tournament will be (and the pre-NET Committee has explicitly stated that they see value in a team's road/neutral record, IIRC). We are a very impressive 8-2 on the road (for a comparison, Michigan State is 6-4 and Iowa State is 5-5), and that includes a 5-2 record vs. Quad 1 teams in THEIR gyms, with the only two losses being in OT. I will choose to believe that is very impressive to the Committee.
- This one is somewhat needless to say, but we have nothing approaching a bad loss on our resume. We're 11-0 vs. Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams, and our 6-0 record vs. Quad 2 teams is by an average margin of over 25 PPG! When you throw in the fact that we've held our own vs. the best of the best, that - to me - looks like the resume deserving of a #2 seed.
- Lastly, we don't have to be done yet! I'm a big believer that BTT results through Saturday are absolutely considered and that BTT results through Friday are just as meaningful as any other games all year. We have at least one Quad 1A opportunity coming up tomorrow, and then you take your shot at Michigan. If we can go 1-1, we'd have 7 Quad 1A wins ... that is huge. For reference, Iowa State currently has 4, UConn has 5, Florida has 3, Houston has 4, etc. If we took down Michigan, we could legitimately make a run at the top #2 seed...
No they don't. One weekend of randomness is never gonna mean more than an entire regular season unless you are on the bubble and need to win your conference tournament which doesn't apply in this case..
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Again, I don’t have the patience to type all of that.Some borderline NET things that could affect us...
- #15 Texas Tech clings to Quad 1A status, but they will likely fall out of the top 15 by Selection Sunday and give us one fewer Quad 1A win after they got demolished today.
- The computers continue to like 10-loss Tennessee (#20 NET right now), and that is keeping our win in Nashville as (relatively) safe Quad 1A for now.
- #26 Wisconsin can likely manage to stay in the top 30 until Sunday now, meaning we will have zero losses that aren't Quad 1.
- #30 Ohio State was likely to remain top 40 anyway, but they pretty much clinched that by beating Iowa today. It's nice to keep that win in Columbus as Quad 1A.
- #34 UCLA has slowly creeped up and seems to have stabilized inside the top 40, making our road loss there Quad 1A.
- #59 Missouri losing today officially killed any chance of them moving into the top 50 and making Braggin' Rights Quad 1. Thanks for nothin', Miznoz.
- #63 Northwestern jumped up 5 points and appears safely in the top 75, giving us a Quad 1 win in Evanston and Quad 2 win in Champaign.
- #78 USC actually moved up one spot, but they almost certainly will not get into the top 75, taking away what was once a Quad 1 win in LA.
- #135 Maryland is BARELY a Quad 2 win now, but it falls back to Quad 3 if they drop even one spot.
- Similarly, #136 Penn State is one spot from giving us another Quad 2 win.
Here is our updated results by Quad, which I have not done in a really long time!
Quad 1A | 6-6
#1-15 Home, #1-25 Neutral, #1-40 Away
L 70-84 vs. #2 Michigan
L 61-74 vs. #9 UConn (New York, NY)
W 88-82 at #10 Purdue
L 82-85 in OT at #11 Michigan State
W 78-69 at #12 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #12 Nebraska
W 81-77 vs. #15 Texas Tech
L 86-90 vs. #17 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W 75-62 vs. #20 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 75-69 at #25 Iowa
vs. #26 Wisconsin (Chicago, IL - BTT)
W 88-80 at #30 Ohio State
L 94-95 in OT at #34 UCLA
Other Quad 1 | 1-1
#16-30 Home, #26-50 Neutral, #41-75 Away
L 90-92 in OT vs. #26 Wisconsin
W 79-68 at #63 Northwestern
---> Total Quad 1 | 7-7
Quad 2 | 6-0
#31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
W 71-51 vs. #41 Indiana
W 75-66 vs. #58 Washington
W 91-48 vs. #59 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W 84-44 vs. #63 Northwestern
W 101-65 at #78 USC
W 78-72 at #135 Maryland
Quad 3 | 6-0
#76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
W 77-67 vs. #80 Minnesota
W 80-54 vs. #110 Oregon
W 87-73 vs. #125 UTRGV
W 81-55 vs. #131 Rutgers
W 89-70 vs. #135 Maryland
W 73-65 at #136 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
Quad 4 | 5-0
#161+ Home, #201+ Neutral, #241+ Away
W 98-58 vs. #196 LIU
W 84-65 vs. #227 Colgate
W 113-70 vs. #248 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #278 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #347 Jackson State
So looking ONLY on the bright side here!
- Playing in 12 Quad 1A games and winning 6 of them is great, especially when you consider that two of the most impressive wins (at Purdue and at Nebraska) were on the road without a starter and two of the losses were by one possession in overtime on the road (at MSU and at UCLA), one of which was also without a starter. I know they say they don't consider a "timeline" of results and just look at a "total body of work," but I have always felt like that is more directed at a consideration for unbalanced conference schedules where some teams get their difficult games in January vs. others in late February, etc. In other words, I DO think the Committee at least somewhat considers if a team was able to improve throughout the year ... and at least with Quad 1A games, we have. Alabama pulled away from us in our own backyard and UConn manhandled us at MSG, but every Quad 1A game since then has been a win or a SUPER close loss with the exception of Michigan ... and the Committee isn't going to penalize anyone for losing to Michigan.
- If you look at the past NET archives, they lay things out in a different format, and right front and center they have "Road Record" ... which tells me the Committee really tries to look at how a team plays away from home, given that is where the Tournament will be (and the pre-NET Committee has explicitly stated that they see value in a team's road/neutral record, IIRC). We are a very impressive 8-2 on the road (for a comparison, Michigan State is 6-4 and Iowa State is 5-5), and that includes a 5-2 record vs. Quad 1 teams in THEIR gyms, with the only two losses being in OT. I will choose to believe that is very impressive to the Committee.
- This one is somewhat needless to say, but we have nothing approaching a bad loss on our resume. We're 11-0 vs. Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams, and our 6-0 record vs. Quad 2 teams is by an average margin of over 25 PPG! When you throw in the fact that we've held our own vs. the best of the best, that - to me - looks like the resume deserving of a #2 seed.
- Lastly, we don't have to be done yet! I'm a big believer that BTT results through Saturday are absolutely considered and that BTT results through Friday are just as meaningful as any other games all year. We have at least one Quad 1A opportunity coming up tomorrow, and then you take your shot at Michigan. If we can go 1-1, we'd have 7 Quad 1A wins ... that is huge. For reference, Iowa State currently has 4, UConn has 5, Florida has 3, Houston has 4, etc. If we took down Michigan, we could legitimately make a run at the top #2 seed...
Suffice to say, tomorrow is really important for seeding purposes.Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
My last post got me curious, and here are the records in Quad 1A games organized by current seeds on the Bracket Matrix. Keep in mind that while I THINK the Quad 1A totals are updated through today (at least that's what their site says!), the Bracket Matrix will no doubt change by tomorrow.
#1 Seeds
Duke: 9-2
Michigan: 9-1
Arizona: 7-2
Florida: 3-3
#2 Seeds
UConn: 5-2
Houston: 4-5
Michigan State: 3-5
Illinois: 6-6
#3 Seeds
Iowa State: 4-5
Nebraska: 3-5
Gonzaga: 2-2
Purdue: 5-6
Let's hope the Committee really values that stat, because we are closer (in total wins) to a #1 seed than a #3 seed just looking at this! Wisconsin is #26 in the NET right now, so it would be nice if we could beat them tomorrow AND have them wind up in the top 25.
#1 Seeds
Duke: 9-2
Michigan: 9-1
Arizona: 7-2
Florida: 3-3
#2 Seeds
UConn: 5-2
Houston: 4-5
Michigan State: 3-5
Illinois: 6-6
#3 Seeds
Iowa State: 4-5
Nebraska: 3-5
Gonzaga: 2-2
Purdue: 5-6
Let's hope the Committee really values that stat, because we are closer (in total wins) to a #1 seed than a #3 seed just looking at this! Wisconsin is #26 in the NET right now, so it would be nice if we could beat them tomorrow AND have them wind up in the top 25.
This is the crux of it.
Should we give them all the benefit of the doubt that since they played a bit better (~#50, meaning still not a tourney team) against a smaller sample size of Q2 or Q2/Q3 than they did against Q4 that they just might play even better against Q1A, or do we trust what we do know about their full body of work: the poor scoring margin (and single loss) against an overall bad schedule puts them around #90?
And to get them in, I think we'd have to give them all the benefit of the doubt. Not just some, but all. And we'd have to give no benefit of the doubt to any other mid-majors or P5s with better metrics.
Honestly, if we're in St. Louis, it really doesn't matter if it's 2 or 3. Picking hairs. Having pseudo home games is much more important.
Wisconsin beating us will not be considered a shocking outcome by any means.
You can give them all the benefit of the doubt. We know Auburn may win 25% of the time against quad 1 teams in 16 games. How this deserving in any way is mind boggling to me. if I'm letting one of two teams in the tournament that are not universally considered impressive I'm going with the team that hasn't had the chance.
Except it kind of is important. 7 or 10 over a 2 does not happen nearly as much as a 6 or 11 over a 3.
100% agree, but I'd like my chances as a 3 in St. Louis vs 2 in Buffalo (for example).
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
But part of that is the average 2 is a better team then the average 3 therefore they lose less
Were the same team either way
All-time record (since 1985 expansion to 64 teams)
- No. 3 seeds: ~72 wins
- No. 6 seeds: ~28 wins
- Upset rate: about 28–30% for the 6-seed
Historical results (since 1985)
- 3-seeds: about 33 wins
- 11-seeds: about 11 wins
- Upset rate: roughly 25%
Historical record (since 1985, 64-team era)
- 2-seeds: about 132 wins
- 10-seeds: about 24 wins
- Upset rate: roughly 15–16%
Historical results (since the 64-team era began in 1985)
- 2-seeds: about 107 wins
- 7-seeds: about 25 wins
- Upset rate: roughly 18–19%
None of them happen that often. 6 over 3 happens the most out of each scenario but it's still not a lot. I'm in the camp of it really doesn't matter that much.
It should be accounted for that not all Q2 games are created equal. Auburn’s two Q2 losses are to Texas A&M (42 in the NET) and @Miss St (114).
Yes, Miss St is a bad team, but Miami OH’s only two Q2 wins are against Washington State (141) and Akron (53).
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