Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
A-10 finals looking like bid thief is not likely to happen. That is good news for all teams on the bubble.
Bracketology
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chrisRunner7
- San Diego
100% agreed. We went through that 12-game stretch where we never looked like we'd lose again and some folks penciled us in for the Final Four in their heads. Everyone has concerns with recent results (me included) but some fans have completely lost touch with reality during our fall to a likely 3-seed... some folks on here would fire half the coaches of teams in the Top 25 if they could. Not looking forward to this board after the next loss as the "I told you so" folks will be raring to go even if we lose a close game to a 2-seed in the Sweet Sixteen.
As for today: I'll take Duke's region, thank you, and UConn or Iowa State as a two-seed. Please no Houston-- Wagler will not survive that game (only half joking) and I'd the over-under at 3 for the number of times Mirkovic looks confused while holding his head in pain.
And if something really crazy happens and we fall to a low four, see you all in San Diego!! SDSU's Viejas Arena is like "The Pit" from New Mexico-- you enter at ground level and descend down to the basketball court. It is pretty cool. I'm thinking about going regardless of the draws.
Here is how a Michigan / Illinois regional would work. (Not rooting for this to happen, but I think it's one of a few likely scenarios.)
True seed in parenthesis.
UConn and Houston were swapped to avoid a B12 rematch. Kansas and Vandy were swapped to avoid a B12 rematch. Other than that, this would follow a team's true seed as closely as possible while keeping teams in their natural geographic regions as much as possible and satisfy all the match up rules.
Even though it's not against the rules to have four B1G teams in two regions (since there are 5 B1G teams in the top 4 seeds) , in this scenario, I could see us and Gonzaga getting swapped. However, that would take both teams out of their natural geographic areas.
True seed in parenthesis.
| East | Midwest | West | South | |
| 1 | Duke (1) | Michigan (2) | Arizona (3) | Florida (4) |
| 2 | Purdue (8) | Iowa St. (7) | UConn (5) | Houston (6) |
| 3 | MSU (9) | Illinois (10) | Zaga (11) | Virginia (12) |
| 4 | Kansas (15) | Vandy (16) | Bama (14) | Nebraska (13) |
UConn and Houston were swapped to avoid a B12 rematch. Kansas and Vandy were swapped to avoid a B12 rematch. Other than that, this would follow a team's true seed as closely as possible while keeping teams in their natural geographic regions as much as possible and satisfy all the match up rules.
Even though it's not against the rules to have four B1G teams in two regions (since there are 5 B1G teams in the top 4 seeds) , in this scenario, I could see us and Gonzaga getting swapped. However, that would take both teams out of their natural geographic areas.
It wasn’t really that different, Kylan only played 1/3 of the game, we didn’t rebound well enough again
The main differences were they shot 16-36 from 3 in the first game and 10-41 in the second game… and the gargantuan free throw / foul disparity in the 2H of the second game
I also think Wisconsin is playing really well
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
That bracket can’t happen - you have 2 regions doubled up with same conference teams and 1 region without any.
I expect that their 10 Q1 wins to our 7 will be the tie breaker.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
This is a good point, and we should remember that the Committee isn’t some Excel model spitting out calculated brackets based on inputs. Even if they start with this perfect hypothetical bracket based on some “objective” S-Curve (and we don’t even know that they do), they have a complicated list of factors to consider that will inevitably shake up the bracket (e.g., avoiding rematches too early, spreading out conference teams, honoring top seeds’ geography preferences, etc.). They usually have to make some adjustments that lead to “surprises” of teams being over- or under-seeded compared to the Bracketologist consensus.
Not saying this will happen, but it’s entirely possible that a long string of Butterfly Effect-like considerations lead to something like this.
1) Illini are second #3 seed in their first draft.
2) They need to move teams around due to the aforementioned other considerations.
3) They end up with a situation where the only way to work out their logistics is to force Purdue or Illinois into the last #2 seed spot.
4) They favor Purdue overall at first, but the overall bracket logistics work even better if Illinois is the #2 seed, and they allow our injuries and our head-to-head to result justify their decision almost as an “excuse.”
5) Illinois is “over-seeded” as a #2 seed and everyone is shocked.
Of course, this type of thing can work in reverse to a team’s disadvantage, too. It seems there are surprises every year. And our injury situation could serve us well in a number of hypothetical “binds” the Committee could find itself in as a sort of tiebreaker in our favor.
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They certainly are. Andrej disappeared after a hot water and Kylan got two fouls in 50 seconds to start the game and Kylan was taken off Boyd and Blackwell so he wouldn't get another foul early. So basically, they didn't make much of a difference.
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TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
I'd take that for sure. Want Uconn or ISU as our 2
Idk. Metrics are always gonna be friendly to you when you never get blown out. I won't go down that path because people are tired of hearing about it, and i totally get it lol.
That said, I do think the metrics paint a picture of other teams in your "tier" and how everyone is having their speedbumps. And sure, we don't play these games on computers, but the metrics have Michigan, Arizona, and Duke in a class of their own, with Florida next up before a considerable dropoff. And idk about you... but that seems pretty darn accurate to me.
This narrative is just silly. Houston hasnt beaten anyone inside the top 10 all year. It would be like any other game against a 2 seed. We shoot well from 3, we probably win.
Why would we want ISU as our 2? The only thing that kept them from winning the Big 12 Tournament was a buzzer beater by Arizona. They absolutely destroyed their first two opponents, one being Texas Tech.
They have everything we struggle with. An elite, playmaking PG(Lipsey), an elite shooting big(Momcilovic), a powerful 3/4(Jefferson) and a slew of size. As with all of Otz's teams, they drown your defensively. They are wildly physically and we aren't.
UCONN, of all of the 2's....yes. It's hard to imagine us beating any of them, outside of a Big 10 2, but that's not an option.
Those are pretty disingenuous numbers. The original poster clearly said if certain things break like Virginia and Vandy winning he wouldnt be surprised if we were in the running for a 4 seed. Completely reasonable take. We'd be much closer to a 4 than a 2. Your "after the fact" numbers do absolutely nothing to prove your point and are actually the irrational stance.
yes it does. I have lost it with players, coaches, and their actions. Example UCLA, once again driving length of court for a layup and loss. My goodness. Phantom foul calls on our players in 4 huge games late. Example Kylans 2nd foul 1 minute into the game against Whisky. Andres Phantom foul in OT against Whisky. I can provide 10 examples of officials. Not to mention Keaton being hammered all game for 10 games and no calls. That's the difference between him and Boozer at Duke. Boozer gets those legitimate foul calls, Keaton gets bruised and battered. This by itself has affected negatively, his game performance for past month. Michigan took him to the wood shed the entire Game and nothing. Appalling. I won't go on a post for 15 paragraphs on our head ball coach, his son, and defense. As all of you, I hope we come out on fire for 40 minutes in the tourney and play with heart and passion. Ps. Break glass, let Ty Rodgers Earn his SALARY from past 2 years of not playing. I'll take Defense and Rebounding for the WIN, " Alex"!I am just telling you they would be a nightmare. They have very good guards, are incredibly physical all over the court, they are extremely athletic, and they go after you for 40 minutes. They don’t allow an easy pass. They give you NOTHING.
There is nothing we do that provides them a concern or a match up issue. Just my opinion. Hope I’m wrong, but I am pretty damn confident I’m not.
My wife showed me this. Unfortunately, it's appropriate and encapsulates Illinois fandom, especially this weekend. I still have faith that we can reverse course over the next few weeks though!
We haven't shot well from 3 since first half of UCLA and that was insane hot! We haven't shot well in past 10 games from 3! Tomi is MIA, Keaton now, and Ben never. Mirk and Jake consistently drop them. Andre, can't throw it in ocean from a boat.
TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
They can have off offensive nights and get got. Look at their TCU and BYU game. I'd prefer UCONN over ISU, tho.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
We gave away 4-5 more of those too…imagine if this team has someone that was the actually leader on this team and wanted to close out these teams.
The biggest issue is this team doesn’t have a true leader. A bunch of “fake leaders” but no actually floor leader. Should be Keaton or Bam, but Keaton has deferred to Bam, and Bam isn’t good enough.
The worst thing to happen to Keaton was Bam coming back.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
- Status