They belonged, they were just playing in a different weight class for this one. First round will be like this a lot, but those massive upsets when they eventually happen will alter brain chemistry.
CFB Playoff & Bowl Games
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If anyone thinks I'm trying to say we're better than Indiana, that's definitely not my point.
I think blowouts tend to have a disproportionate effect on metrics for a variety of reasons. Someone pointed out one that had us at 40 and IU at 7. Look at the Michigan results and tell me you think that was the difference?
Saban retired at 72. Cignetti is 63. He still has 8-10 years left in his career.
Blowouts over time (numerous games) show which teams are good and which teams are getting by thru luck. Why shouldn’t score margins matter?
What other non-playoff team would have beat all the teams Indiana did by the same margin of victory?
IU at 7
IL at 40
Makes sense.
If IU can beat Purdue 66-0, and Nebraska 56-7, and IL needs OT to beat each, then it’s reasonable to conclude there is a big gap.
If any Big 10 team, even if they don’t play the very top teams in the conference, blows out all their opponents then they deserve to be in the playoff. It’s not easy blowing out conference opponents.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
All I am saying is that a blue blood like Bama or OSU would not be taking a risk with Cignetti (no slight at him).
Saban was 55 when he took the job at Bama, and he had a stout resume at that point.
Cignetti got his first p4 job at the age of 62. His major limitation is his age and lack of proven long term success at a p4 job. That is why 2025 is so important for him if he wants a final run at a better job than IU.
As I recall, AL was annihilated by a bad OU team
Lane Kiffin tears down newly reformed CFP as Notre Dame cruises over Indiana: ‘Really exciting competitive game’
Ole Miss Head Coach Lane Kiffin sarcastically blasted the College Football Playoff — just one game in — after the Rebels failed to clinch a spot in the newly reformed postseason.
nypost.com
I think the following 3 things make for easy fixes to the biggest problems there are right now:
1. Move the transfer window to after the postseason. Could delay early enrolls by a week or two, but much better for competitive balance and much less distraction during the sason.
2. Expand the field to 16 teams, and include all conference champs. That expands by 4 teams, all conference champs in FBS divisions (so this year would have included Army, Marshall, Ohio and Jax State). That would make for zero arbitrary decisions on which conference champs were worthy.
3. Since there would no longer be byes, just seed the teams in order of quality, like basketball. If we go by the CFP rankings (and Massey for teams outside the top 25), that would result in a first round of 1 Oregon-16 Jax State, 2 Georgia-15 Ohio, 3 Texas-14 Marshall, 4 Penn State-13 Army, 5 Notre Dame-12 Clemson, 6 Ohio State-11 Arizona State, 7 Tennessee-10 SMU and 8 Indiana-9 Boise State
This whole debate is interesting, but I think it’s simply circling the root cause of the entire conversation.
Someone else just posted about weight class, and I think that’s a good way to put it.
Indiana beat nobody this year but had 11 nobodies so they get in with 11-1. That doesn’t mean they are bad, however, just that they took care of business against the nobodies.
Each year, I bet there are maybe 4-7 teams with legit shots to win it all. Like, truly a chance based on talent, depth, and coaching. Those teams are in the top weight class and it’s unsure where the cutoff is each year.
This year, after the first two games, it’s looking at LEAST like the cutoff is around 8 teams. (Pending the results of tonight, so it may be lower)
The point is IU belonged in the 12 team playoff based on metrics and resume simply because somebody has to fill spots 9-12.
That doesn’t mean they were ever a legit threat to win it all. Seems to be the same with SMU and the jury is out on Boise, ASU, and Clemson.
Bottom line, did they belong? Yes and no.
Yes inside the 12 team playoff.
No because they were playing in a weight class they simply can’t compete in.
Which begs the true question, did the CFP expand too much? Maybe 8 SHOULD have been the number. It’d get rid of Cinderella stories but would that be possible in CFB anyway? This first weekend is pointing towards no so far.
Someone else just posted about weight class, and I think that’s a good way to put it.
Indiana beat nobody this year but had 11 nobodies so they get in with 11-1. That doesn’t mean they are bad, however, just that they took care of business against the nobodies.
Each year, I bet there are maybe 4-7 teams with legit shots to win it all. Like, truly a chance based on talent, depth, and coaching. Those teams are in the top weight class and it’s unsure where the cutoff is each year.
This year, after the first two games, it’s looking at LEAST like the cutoff is around 8 teams. (Pending the results of tonight, so it may be lower)
The point is IU belonged in the 12 team playoff based on metrics and resume simply because somebody has to fill spots 9-12.
That doesn’t mean they were ever a legit threat to win it all. Seems to be the same with SMU and the jury is out on Boise, ASU, and Clemson.
Bottom line, did they belong? Yes and no.
Yes inside the 12 team playoff.
No because they were playing in a weight class they simply can’t compete in.
Which begs the true question, did the CFP expand too much? Maybe 8 SHOULD have been the number. It’d get rid of Cinderella stories but would that be possible in CFB anyway? This first weekend is pointing towards no so far.
IlliniFanHere
- New York
Indiana vs SMU in the " Hey look at us bowl"
Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
Ha...that list of Blow out teams is not an impressive list of challengers....
Clemson can't stop the run vs. Texas. Gonna be a long afternoon I think.
Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
Indiana's disgraceful pound on Purdue after O State whack......just no point in shooting the wounded again and again.
And here I thought we finally got a couple of heavy hitters going at it in this game. Clemson needs to be more careful here.
Anyone who didn’t realize we’d have blowouts in first round games when they went to 12-team playoff, especially with higher seed playing at home, just hasn’t been paying attention. I think 19 of 30 of playoff games played prior to this year were won by more than 13 points — and quite a few of those 19 were by a lot more than 13. So you expand playoffs and expect more close games?
That’s why I prefer the “more deserving” resume to the “get the best 12 teams” approach. Blowouts are going to happen anyway. And I don’t mind them. I just just turn on something else or do something else.
That’s why I prefer the “more deserving” resume to the “get the best 12 teams” approach. Blowouts are going to happen anyway. And I don’t mind them. I just just turn on something else or do something else.
IlliniFanHere
- New York
Carefull.....football may follow the NCAA basketball technique......everybody goes to the dance. If we got 12 teams, let' s expand to best 24, and then possibly the best 44, etc.
Texas looking more talented out there.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Interesting analysis, but my biggest concern with the no byes approach is that the enviable position would be being in 3rd for B1G and SEC. You would avoid playing the conference champ game and still get a home playoff game. In short, I think it devalues the importance of the B1G and SEC Championship games, which might entice a team to rest stars in those games. I believe it would lead to the elimination of some power conference championship games.
Exactly. Most of the BCS years included at least one blowout game, meaning there weren't even four teams reliably on the same level each year. Expanding the number of teams simply guarantees two things; more blowouts, and more fan bases endlessly yakking about how they shouldda got in and what an injustice it was that that other team got in.
I think the obvious answer from, say the B1G and SEC would be to eliminate the conference championship game (and heck, they might do it anyway at this point). It would give teams an extra week of rest before the games that matter happen.
I think you need to let a few years play out first . Those conference championship games make a ton of money , and it’s all about money
losing two weeks ago didnt seem to matter much to PSU today .
these first round games really favor the home team , which is no surprise .
I disagree with this.
Moving portal window isn’t going to change anything, and people need to quit pretending like it will. Players will still opt out regardless, and all it does is hamper the student aspect of student-athlete.
16 teams seems ridiculous. There is no reason for Oregon to play Jacksonville State. That doesn’t even sound like an entertaining game. There are better ways to remove arbitrary decision making than “let crappy teams from crappy conferences make it automatically”.
I do think removing auto-byes for top-4 conference champs makes sense.
Personally, ways to make it better would include:
- all home-field advantage games through at least the first two rounds, if not all the way to the championship
- reseed each round. It’s mind boggling to me they don’t already.
- seed teams #1 through 12 and place them accordingly. Conference champs get byes is dumb.
Probably other suggestions too.
illinifan31
Former Krush Cow
- South Bend, IN
I went to ND for grad school and was at the game last night. Was an amazing environment. The entire stadium stood the whole game. I'm so glad they have the opening games on the campuses. It was the best environment I've seen at a game at ND, including when we beat Clemson 2 years ago and people stormed the field.
I don't mind it at all. The best non-champions will continue to the home 5-8 teams. They get rewarded with a home game for having a very good season but just not winning the conference (likely SEC or Big10) the 8-9 game will probably continue to be close, but the 5-12 game will and the 6-11 game will very often really be something like 3-16 and 4-14. I think because the conference system is still making the rules auto invites and byes will stay unless the conferences completely all disintegrate.
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