CFB Playoff & Bowl Games

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#52      
Illini in Italy
Rutgers gave the game away . . .

 
#58      
Illini in Italy
Gotta chuckle at this headline from Athlon Sports ->

College Football Program Blows 93.3% Bowl Win Chance Following Collapse
 
#60      
Mr. Tibbs
RabidDawgClassic said:
I was actually hoping K-State would lose by virtue of going for two down 11 instead of kicking the extra point to bring the deficit to 10. WTF was THAT? It was as if Ron Zook were coaching the Wildcats.
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with some coaches (like Zook) the instant they miss a PAT kick in the first quarter they feel compelled to chase that point the entire game - current score or time of game be damned
 
#61      
RabidDawgClassic
Mr. Tibbs said:
with some coaches (like Zook) the instant they miss a PAT kick in the first quarter they feel compelled to chase that point the entire game - current score or time of game be damned
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I don’t think that was the case here, though. K-state was down 34-17. They scored, bringing it to 34-23, then opted to go for 2 which would’ve cut the deficit to… 9? As it turned out, they remained down 11 until they scored again, and again went for two, missing that as well.

In the postgame interview, the coach essentially dismissed the question about why he did that with a laugh, saying something to the effect of “tell ya what… we’ll go get dinner and drinks and I’ll tell you why I do a lot of things I do.” Obviously, he didn’t have a legitimate answer.
 
#62      
OrangeBlue98
RabidDawgClassic said:
I don’t think that was the case here, though. K-state was down 34-17. They scored, bringing it to 34-23, then opted to go for 2 which would’ve cut the deficit to… 9? As it turned out, they remained down 11 until they scored again, and again went for two, missing that as well.

In the postgame interview, the coach essentially dismissed the question about why he did that with a laugh, saying something to the effect of “tell ya what… we’ll go get dinner and drinks and I’ll tell you why I do a lot of things I do.” Obviously, he didn’t have a legitimate answer.
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Diving into analytics here, but I've always figured coaches have some sort of sheet or coach in their ear saying go for two or one depending on the current lead or deficit. For example, if you're up 1 going for 2 is better because whether you're up 1 or 2, a field goal still beats you. If you're up 3, a field goal can only tie it.

In this case, whether you are up 9 or 10 you'd need a seven-point touchdown and a field goal to either tie or take the lead. If you're down 11, you need an eight-point touchdown. Based on the very limited (i.e. one Google search) research I did, it looks like a two-point conversion across football is successful 40-55% of the time. Meanwhile, a PAT is successful over 95% of the time.

In other words, kick the PAT to get the margin to 10 so you are down a seven point TD (i.e. a PAT with a 95%+ chance of success and a field goal) compared to 11 and needing an eight-point TD. Just not smart game-planning there.
 
#63      
Point-Illinois
I’ve always subscribed to the idea that you only go for 2 when you have to, due to the lower success rate.

It blows my mind when coaches (including our own) go for it in, like, the 3rd quarter. There are still so many variables left in the game you never know when that one point could come in handy.
 
#69      
TentakilRex
RabidDawgClassic said:
If ever a comment screams “Ok, Boomer” it’s this one.
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It isn't college football I was talking about in this comment, I was talking about broadcast TV. I ain't that much of a grumpy old man yet :)
 
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