Chicago Cubs 2016 Season

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#303      
If Strasburg is worth 175 million Cubs are legitimately going to have to had Jake a blank check and say fill it in :eek::eek::eek:
 
#304      
If Strasburg is worth 175 million Cubs are legitimately going to have to had Jake a blank check and say fill it in :eek::eek::eek:

I agree with the overall sentiment of what you're saying, but Strasburg does have 3 years of youth on his side compared to Arrieta.

That being said, Arrieta will make a good amount of money on his next deal.
 
#305      
No game from last night to talk about. So, thinking about the future...

The playoffs are such a crapshoot. Since the wild card started, there really hasn't been any noticeable pattern as to which teams do well in the playoffs versus those that don't. Even these Cubs who seem to be poised to be one of the best regular seasons teams in a long time aren't guaranteed to do anything come playoff time. Fangraphs, 538, and other projection websites have the Cubs with the best chance to win the WS - most in the 25%-ish range - but that still means they have a 75% chance of NOT winning the World Series. As good as these Cubs are, in an even bet between the Cubs and the field, the smart money is still on the field.

The conventional wisdom is that the best way to assure an eventual World Series win is to make the playoffs over and over again. With that in mind, the Cubs are in amazing shape to make a protracted playoff run...

Of the Cubs 13 position players on the 25-man roster (plus Schwarber), 11 are under team control for next year. Ross will retire and Fowler has a mutual option to return. The Cubs will pick up Fowler's option. So the question will be whether Fowler wants to test the market again. Also, Contreras and Almora are going to be making a push to be promoted from AAA.

Of the Cubs 13 pitchers, 9 are under team control next year. Wood, Cahill, and Richards are all free agents, but can at least partially be replaced with in-the-system options like Edwards and Patton. Hammel has a team option to come back. Whether he does or not will mainly depend on whether the Cubs acquire another starting pitching option between now and then.

It makes a lot of sense for the Cubs to bring Fowler back. But if he decides to leave, I don't see the Cubs spending much on bringing in another position player.

I could see them spending on a reliever. Aroldis Chapman will be a free agent and is very sexy. But the more likely scenario is that they're bring in a mid-priced lefty to fill out the back end of the pen.

With Strasburg off the market, there isn't really a free agent pitcher worth going for. Andrew Cashner might be the best of the bunch, and there's no real guarantee that he'd be any better than simply picking up Hammel's option. This is why it would make a ton of sense for the Cubs to make a 2016 deadline trade for a starting pitcher that's under control for 2017 and beyond. Especially considering that Arrieta hits the free agent market in 2018.

Sonny Gray and Jose Fernandez are two guys that have been talked about as possibly being available. They'll be expensive in terms of prospects and both guys' teams have to fall out of contention before it even becomes a possibility. What does a trade for 3 1/2 years of Sonny Gray look like? Baez, Soler, Vogelbach, and Torrez? Fernandez is less proven and under 1 year less of team control. So he'd be cheaper.

Chris Archer Jake Odorizzi are other guys in the same neighborhood as Gray and Fernandez, but I haven't read anywhere that the Rays have any inclination to trade them, probably thinking they can get back in contention while both guys are still under team control.

Tyson Ross doesn't give you any years beyond 2017, but would probably come a lot cheaper. However, he's hurt and team denials aside, his injury smells an awful lot like TJS is in his near future, which would scuttle any usefulness to the Cubs during the remainder of his contract.

The Indians are an interesting possible trade partner. They have a ton of starting pitching depth and would like to add another bat. But they think they're competing for the playoffs right now and for the foreseeable future, so they'd want major league talent for Corrasco, Salazar, or Kluber. They're also very strong where the Cubs are deepest - middle infield - and their biggest position need could probably best be filled with someone - Schwarber - who can't help them this year. So maybe if they fall out of the race. They're currently a game out of the wild card.

The Angels desperately need to restock their farm system. Could the Cubs toss a couple low-level prospects their way to get Garret Richards in the last half of 2017 and 2018?

Beyond those names, you're talking about guys who are either on competitive ball clubs that won't be inclined to trade their starters, or guys who aren't any better than bringing Hammel back for 2017.
 
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#306      
I agree with the overall sentiment of what you're saying, but Strasburg does have 3 years of youth on his side compared to Arrieta.

That being said, Arrieta will make a good amount of money on his next deal.

I think it could be argued Arrieta has a younger arm, however.
 
#307      
No game from last night to talk about. So, thinking about the future...

The playoffs are such a crapshoot. Since the wild card started, there really hasn't been any noticeable pattern as to which teams do well in the playoffs versus those that don't. Even these Cubs who seem to be poised to be one of the best regular seasons teams in a long time aren't guaranteed to do anything come playoff time. Fangraphs, 538, and other projection websites have the Cubs with the best chance to win the WS - most in the 25%-ish range - but that still means they have a 75% chance of NOT winning the World Series. As good as these Cubs are, in an even bet between the Cubs and the field, the smart money is still on the field.

The conventional wisdom is that the best way to assure an eventual World Series win is to make the playoffs over and over again. With that in mind, the Cubs are in amazing shape to make a protracted playoff run...

Of the Cubs 13 position players on the 25-man roster (plus Schwarber), 11 are under team control for next year. Ross will retire and Fowler has a mutual option to return. The Cubs will pick up Fowler's option. So the question will be whether Fowler wants to test the market again. Also, Contreras and Almora are going to be making a push to be promoted from AAA.

Of the Cubs 13 pitchers, 9 are under team control next year. Wood, Cahill, and Richards are all free agents, but can at least partially be replaced with in-the-system options like Edwards and Patton. Hammel has a team option to come back. Whether he does or not will mainly depend on whether the Cubs acquire another starting pitching option between now and then.

It makes a lot of sense for the Cubs to bring Fowler back. But if he decides to leave, I don't see the Cubs spending much on bringing in another position player.

I could see them spending on a reliever. Aroldis Chapman will be a free agent and is very sexy. But the more likely scenario is that they're bring in a mid-priced lefty to fill out the back end of the pen.

With Strasburg off the market, there isn't really a free agent pitcher worth going for. Andrew Cashner might be the best of the bunch, and there's no real guarantee that he'd be any better than simply picking up Hammel's option. This is why it would make a ton of sense for the Cubs to make a 2016 deadline trade for a starting pitcher that's under control for 2017 and beyond. Especially considering that Arrieta hits the free agent market in 2018.

Sonny Gray and Jose Fernandez are two guys that have been talked about as possibly being available. They'll be expensive in terms of prospects and both guys' teams have to fall out of contention before it even becomes a possibility. What does a trade for 3 1/2 years of Sonny Gray look like? Baez, Soler, Vogelbach, and Torrez? Fernandez is less proven and under 1 year less of team control. So he'd be cheaper.

Chris Archer Jake Odorizzi are other guys in the same neighborhood as Gray and Fernandez, but I haven't read anywhere that the Rays have any inclination to trade them, probably thinking they can get back in contention while both guys are still under team control.

Tyson Ross doesn't give you any years beyond 2017, but would probably come a lot cheaper. However, he's hurt and team denials aside, his injury smells an awful lot like TJS is in his near future, which would scuttle any usefulness to the Cubs during the remainder of his contract.

The Indians are an interesting possible trade partner. They have a ton of starting pitching depth and would like to add another bat. But they think they're competing for the playoffs right now and for the foreseeable future, so they'd want major league talent for Corrasco, Salazar, or Kluber. They're also very strong where the Cubs are deepest - middle infield - and their biggest position need could probably best be filled with someone - Schwarber - who can't help them this year. So maybe if they fall out of the race. They're currently a game out of the wild card.

The Angels desperately need to restock their farm system. Could the Cubs toss a couple low-level prospects their way to get Garret Richards in the last half of 2017 and 2018?

Beyond those names, you're talking about guys who are either on competitive ball clubs that won't be inclined to trade their starters, or guys who aren't any better than bringing Hammel back for 2017.

Heck of a post, champaignchris. I'll "Buzzfeed" bulletpoint respond.

1. The playoffs definitely are a crap shoot. As we all know, the Cubs were the 2nd wild card last year and went to the NLCS after beating the best team in baseball during the regular season. Just have to get there, and so far the Cubs are doing their part.

2. Fowler is the guy to follow this offseason. Almora is playing rather well at AAA this season. The catching situation looks to be the smoothest of transitions with Ross retiring and Montero signed through 2017 to split time with Contreras before handing over the reigns as starter.

3. I'd like to see Wood return, depending upon cost, as he is a solid bridge lefty in the pen. I also like Cahill, but I bet he tests the waters. Richards I don't see returning. Another thing warranting consideration is Warren in the rotation if Hammel does not return.

4. Trades for potential starters:
A) Gray has struggled this year early on, but he's still a quality starter and only 26 years old. Of all the arms you listed, he'd be my #1 pick, though he'd come at a cost.
B) Though I disagree and feel this cost would not be as much as Fernandez, who I don't think will be dealt. The Marlins' price was very high at the winter meetings. Source: http://www.sbnation.com/2015/12/22/10644874/jose-fernandez-trade-rumors-dodgers-marlins
C) Archer/Odorizzi. I don't see Archer being dealt, but Odorizzi likely could.
D) Tyson Ross, I agree, smells like Tommy John.
E) Agreed, as long as Cleveland is in contention, those top 3 arms won't be dealt.
F) Richards is an interesting name. There's definitely a risk there with the Tommy John surgery/recovery, but pending the price, it is a risk worth taking.
G) Another name I'd add in there is Julio Teheran from Atlanta. The Braves will definitely be sellers this year, but I wonder if Teheran will be viewed as a franchise cornerstone or a trade chip to rebuild.

I think it could be argued Arrieta has a younger arm, however.

In terms of injury, absolutely. Strasburg's Tommy John Surgery in 2010 will always linger. But in terms of overall innings pitched at the minor & major league levels, Strasburg has the younger arm compared to Arrieta (935.0 IP to 1351.1 IP, respectively).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=strasb001ste
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=arriet001jak
 
#311      
Didn't expect to get blanked by the Padres. Oh well. A nice day off before the Pirates will be good.
 
#312      
Saw a truly ridiculous tweet saying that "a source" told the tweeter than Soler is being held out of games to protect him in the event the Cubs and Angels make a trade, sending Trout to the Cubs.

My thought: He's being held out because he's not playing well right now.
 
#313      
Saw a truly ridiculous tweet saying that "a source" told the tweeter than Soler is being held out of games to protect him in the event the Cubs and Angels make a trade, sending Trout to the Cubs.

My thought: He's being held out because he's not playing well right now.

Have seen articles and tweets that a Baez + Soler + Gleyber package could make it happen.
 
#314      
Heard another interesting stat this morning: The Cubs yesterday, in their 33rd game, lost back-to-back games for the first time this season. The last team that went at least 33 games before losing back-to-back games was the 1929 A's. :eek:
 
#315      
Yeah, not saying it would happen, but moving prospects for a Trout/Braun makes sense if we are okay with Fowler leaving after the season. At least that way we could just move Heyward to CF and have Schwarber/Trade in LF and RF. Bryant, Russell, Zo, Rizzo on the infield.

Overall it's an upgrade to what we have, but I don't know if it's worth what we'd need to give up to get it. Baez is playing well now, but he is the extra guy in the lineup right now that forces Maddon to change positions of several players to get in. We'd lose some depth, and Soler is bound to start producing. I'm not saying Trout isn't an upgrade to the team, but selling the farm for a guy making 33m/year starting in 2018? Eh, I'm glad I'm not writing the checks.
 
#316      
Have seen articles and tweets that a Baez + Soler + Gleyber package could make it happen.

Why would we not? Are we not aiming for a world series and does Trout not make us better? I understand blowing up some prospects, but if we really are trying to win and that is what it took...
 
#318      
The Angels GM should be put in jail if he makes that trade.

Yeah it's tweets from Cubs fans I'm sure. It would take more of a Baez/Soler/Contreras/Vogelbach/Almora deal I would guess.

-Contreras is a catcher hitting .347 and slugging nearly .500 at AAA.
-Almora will likely play for us this year
-Vogelbach is a stud who would never play unless Rizzo is hurt. Like ever.
 
#320      
The Angels GM should be put in jail if he makes that trade.

Thank you.

Yeah it's tweets from Cubs fans I'm sure. It would take more of a Baez/Soler/Contreras/Vogelbach/Almora deal I would guess.

-Contreras is a catcher hitting .347 and slugging nearly .500 at AAA.
-Almora will likely play for us this year
-Vogelbach is a stud who would never play unless Rizzo is hurt. Like ever.

It would be much more than that. If I'm the Angels, any conversation that doesn't start with Kris Bryant or Addison Russell (maybe both), I hang up the phone.

Trout is a 4x all-star, 1x MVP, and 3x MVP runner-up in 4 full seasons. At age 24. He's arguably the best player in baseball, at a premium position, with decent bargain signed through 2020 at a bargain given what he provide (about $24 million/year).

He's not being moved unless a monstrous deal is offered their way.
 
#321      
Thank you.



It would be much more than that. If I'm the Angels, any conversation that doesn't start with Kris Bryant or Addison Russell (maybe both), I hang up the phone.

Trout is a 4x all-star, 1x MVP, and 3x MVP runner-up in 4 full seasons. At age 24. He's arguably the best player in baseball, at a premium position, with decent bargain signed through 2020 at a bargain given what he provide (about $24 million/year).

He's not being moved unless a monstrous deal is offered their way.

"We're going to make him an offer he can't refuse". There was a movie with a scene inLA about that
 
#322      
Thank you.



It would be much more than that. If I'm the Angels, any conversation that doesn't start with Kris Bryant or Addison Russell (maybe both), I hang up the phone.

Trout is a 4x all-star, 1x MVP, and 3x MVP runner-up in 4 full seasons. At age 24. He's arguably the best player in baseball, at a premium position, with decent bargain signed through 2020 at a bargain given what he provide (about $24 million/year).

He's not being moved unless a monstrous deal is offered their way.

It would be interesting because it's never really happened before. If the Angels have been ordered to save money and rebuild, something could happen. Paying one guy $33m a year from 2018-2020 is asking a lot of a team losing 90 games a season. Lots of hypotheticals there, but yeah. Trout sells tickets and jerseys. That alone is a reason why they won't trade him.
 
#323      
If I'm the Angels, any conversation that doesn't start with Kris Bryant or Addison Russell (maybe both), I hang up the phone.

+1

Fun fact: Trout is, by WAR, the 7th most valuable hitter through his age 25 season in baseball history - and he's only a month and a half into his age 24 season.

The Angels are in a tough spot. A team would have to be crazy to give up what 4 1/2 years of Trout's prime is worth. And in order to build towards a team worthy of him, they'd have to suck miserably in the short term.

Spitball trade offer: Syndergaard, Michael Conforto and Travis D'Arnaud from the Mets for Trout. Who says no?
 
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#324      
+1

Fun fact: Trout is, by WAR, the 7th most valuable hitter through his age 25 season in baseball history - and he's only a month and a half into his age 24 season.

The Angels are in a tough spot. A team would have to be crazy to give up what 4 1/2 years of Trout's prime is worth. And in order to build towards a team worthy of him, they'd have to suck miserably in the short term.

Spitball trade offer: Syndergaard, Michael Conforto and Travis D'Arnaud from the Mets for Trout. Who says no?



It would take way more than NS, MC, and TD to get trout. TD isn't that good, MC has potential to be a damn good player, and NS could be best pitcher in baseball soon. But no way Angels take that.
 
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