Chicago Cubs 2017 Season

#151      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
IanKEvans2 said:
champaignchris, what do you see/feel is going on with the bats? I just can't seem to put a finger on it.
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It's a real mystery. The team just looks like they're less than the sum of their parts right now. The only thing they do really well is get walks.

Digging into the stats...

2nd to last in the league in batting average. Last with RISP. 10th in OBP despite being first in walks and HBP... I would not have thought that even possible. Seriously, how do you do that?

10th in SLG. 10th in OPS.

They strike out at a reasonable rate (for this era). So they put the ball in play, but are dead last in the Majors in BABIP at only .273. Which is ridiculously low for an entire team over 60-ish games. It's not just freakish bad luck though. They are last in the Majors in line drive percentage, 10th in the League in hard contact percentage, while leading the Majors in percentage of balls pulled.

They don't run. Last in stolen bases, 10th in SB percentage. They play station to station ball and rely heavily on the long ball to drive in runs because they don't hit doubles. They're an all or nothing team.

That .221 average with RISP is unsustainably low and will probably creep its way up to their overall average - .235 - but that would still be last in the league.

At WAR by position, which includes defense, they're top 6 in the league at every position except Left Field. (Unlike Contreras and Russell, Schwarber's weak bat hasn't been offset by a superior glove.). They're 5th in the league in non-pitching WAR. But it just doesn't seem to add up. The starting pitching, which I think we can now officially describe as "awful" has a lot to do with that.

Basically I see a team whose openents aren't afraid to walk them. I think the book on the Cubs is to bust them in on the hands and let them pop up or ground out to their pull side because they refuse to inside-out it to the opposite field. I think John Mallee should be very concerned for his job.

The relief pitching and defense has been good to great. The starting pitching should be in triage.
 
#152      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
IanKEvans2 said:
I'm going to throw out a mid-June prediction for the rest of the season.
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I feel like they're going to have one of those months where they roll off 20 out of 25. They'll play right around .500 the remainder of the year and win the division with ease with maybe 91 or 92 wins.

The playoffs will be all about the matchups, but I bet they'll win at least one series. I'd love a Cubs-Nats championship series. I don't believe it possible for a Maddon-led team to lose to a Baker-led team in a playoff series. I'd love to have that theory put to a test.
 
#154      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
champaignchris said:
It's a real mystery. The team just looks like they're less than the sum of their parts right now. The only thing they do really well is get walks.

Digging into the stats...

2nd to last in the league in batting average. Last with RISP. 10th in OBP despite being first in walks and HBP... I would not have thought that even possible. Seriously, how do you do that?

10th in SLG. 10th in OPS.

They strike out at a reasonable rate (for this era). So they put the ball in play, but are dead last in the Majors in BABIP at only .273. Which is ridiculously low for an entire team over 60-ish games. It's not just freakish bad luck though. They are last in the Majors in line drive percentage, 10th in the League in hard contact percentage, while leading the Majors in percentage of balls pulled.

They don't run. Last in stolen bases, 10th in SB percentage. They play station to station ball and rely heavily on the long ball to drive in runs because they don't hit doubles. They're an all or nothing team.

That .221 average with RISP is unsustainably low and will probably creep its way up to their overall average - .235 - but that would still be last in the league.

At WAR by position, which includes defense, they're top 6 in the league at every position except Left Field. (Unlike Contreras and Russell, Schwarber's weak bat hasn't been offset by a superior glove.). They're 5th in the league in non-pitching WAR. But it just doesn't seem to add up. The starting pitching, which I think we can now officially describe as "awful" has a lot to do with that.

Basically I see a team whose openents aren't afraid to walk them. I think the book on the Cubs is to bust them in on the hands and let them pop up or ground out to their pull side because they refuse to inside-out it to the opposite field. I think John Mallee should be very concerned for his job.

The relief pitching and defense has been good to great. The starting pitching should be in triage.
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That's a good analysis and backs up the eye test. Last night, they scored 9 without hitting a HR so that's a good sign (although one game doesn't make a trend).
 
#157      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
[ W ] #35

Phew. Nail biter in the 9th there. Big game from Contreras, especially defensively in the 9th.
 
#158      

Shane Walsh

Shane Walsh
aka "Captain Oblivious"
Cynthiana, Kentucky
Shane Walsh
Watch for some fireworks today as San Diego may choose to retaliate for Rizzo running over their catcher.
 
#159      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
Shane Walsh said:
Watch for some fireworks today as San Diego may choose to retaliate for Rizzo running over their catcher.
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Deservedly so. Rizzo went out of his way to make contact. I wouldn't go as far as to call it a dirty play, but he should have been out even if the catcher did not hang on to the ball.
 
#160      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
KBLEE said:
Deservedly so. Rizzo went out of his way to make contact. I wouldn't go as far as to call it a dirty play, but he should have been out even if the catcher did not hang on to the ball.
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I'd say it was dirty, even if it is uncharacteristic for Rizzo. Hedges gave him the entire baseline and other side of the plate to slide. Rizzo went into him like a soccer player celebrating a goal.
 
#161      

IlliniJim20

I
IlliniJim20
Looking for some rules clarification help:

Was at the Cubs-Padres game last night, regarding the Rizzo play at plate when he was thrown out, what is the rule regarding sliding, avoiding a collision?

Rizzo was out, so that part is moot. However, from the replays, the catcher did not block the plate, he was next to it, but Rizzo did not slide and made pretty solid contact witH catcher. The ump looked at the catcher to make sure he did not drop ball after the collision, like in old days. I was surprised he did not automatically indicate Rizzo out for not sliding, regardless if catcher held on to ball.

My questions are: 1) when is runner ruled out for not sliding? It seems we see it called more often at second base on adorable play turn. 2) if catcher did drop the ball, is that a play the opposing manager can argue or appeal?

Thanks in advance.
 
#162      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
IlliniJim20 said:
Looking for some rules clarification help:

Was at the Cubs-Padres game last night, regarding the Rizzo play at plate when he was thrown out, what is the rule regarding sliding, avoiding a collision?

Rizzo was out, so that part is moot. However, from the replays, the catcher did not block the plate, he was next to it, but Rizzo did not slide and made pretty solid contact witH catcher. The ump looked at the catcher to make sure he did not drop ball after the collision, like in old days. I was surprised he did not automatically indicate Rizzo out for not sliding, regardless if catcher held on to ball.

My questions are: 1) when is runner ruled out for not sliding? It seems we see it called more often at second base on adorable play turn. 2) if catcher did drop the ball, is that a play the opposing manager can argue or appeal?

Thanks in advance.
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Here is some guidance that was provided when the rules were implemented:
• A runner may not run out of a direct line to the plate in order to initiate contact with the catcher, or any player, covering the plate. If he does, the umpire can call him out even if the player taking the throw loses possession of the ball.
• The catcher may not block the pathway of a runner attempting to score unless he has possession of the ball. If the catcher blocks the runner before he has the ball, the umpire may call the runner safe.
• All calls will be based on the umpire's judgment. The umpire will consider such factors as whether the runner made an effort to touch the plate and whether he lowered his shoulder or used his hands, elbows or arms when approaching the catcher.
• Runners are not required to slide, and catchers in possession of the ball are allowed to block the plate. However, runners who do slide and catchers who provide the runner with a lane will never be found in violation of the rule.
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MLB executive vice president of baseball operations Joe Torre added late Monday that MLB has the right to issue supplemental discipline in the form of fines or suspensions for flagrant acts.
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Of note: it has been stated that there have been no fines or suspensions as a result of home plate collisions since the rules were enacted.

Also, I think the highlighted bullet is important. Not only did Rizzo touch the plate, after contact he actually sat on the plate.
 
#165      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
Sliding missteps aside, Rizzo is making a name for himself in the leadoff spot. HR #3 in 7 games!
 
#167      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
First game I've been able to get to all season and they only get two freaking hits. Ugh. That's a personal low for me when actually in the park.

I'm not counting the time I saw them get 1-hit by Randy Johnson. Because at least in that case I can say, "I saw Randy Johnson throw a 1-hitter."
 
#168      

Hoppy2105

H
Little Rock, Arkansas
Hoppy2105
champaignchris said:
First game I've been able to get to all season and they only get two freaking hits. Ugh. That's a personal low for me when actually in the park.

I'm not counting the time I saw them get 1-hit by Randy Johnson. Because at least in that case I can say, "I saw Randy Johnson throw a 1-hitter."
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Looks like you're cursed. Better stay away from Cubs games for awhile...:thumb: