Chicago Cubs 2018 Season

#626      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
The 9-9 record since the ASB isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence. Fortunately, no one else in the NL has been really great coming out of the ASB either.

Lester, Hendricks and Quintana have to be better.
 
#628      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Lester was getting results better than what his peripherals indicated he should be getting. He's had two really bad starts in his last 4 that now make his results look about where they should be. I think he'll be fine, with an ERA in the mid 3s the rest of the way.

Hendricks has battled mechanical problems all year. He's probably going to be the same guy he's been all year... Lead the staff in innings with about a 4 ERA.

I don't know Quintana's problem. He's been one good start, one bad start all year. He's been really underwhelming since coming over from the Sox. Nothing really stands out as to why he isn't performing closer to expectations. He's walking more, but striking out more than when he was with the Sox. His hits per nine is a tick lower. His HR per nine is a tick higher. His WHIP has been about the same. But in essentially a full season with the Cubs, he's been a 2.4 WAR pitcher, when in his four full seasons with the Sox, he was a 4.8 WAR pitcher. Just not bad, but nowhere near as good as expected.

Chatwood is going to have to have his delivery completely broken down and rebuilt over the winter. He's twisting himself into knots out there. He's got the stuff to succeed, but he almost has to re-learn how to throw the ball. He might be great, he might be a disaster. But we won't find out until next year.

Duensing is toast.

I don't know if Darvish was healthy even when he was pitching. Who knows what he's going to look like when he gets back. If he comes back this year, although recent reports have been more optimistic. If he comes back in September and pitches like we know he can, the Cubs immediately become the favorites to win the NL pennant. If he doesn't, it's going to be a slog.

Pretty much everybody else on the team has performed at or better than expectations.
 
#629      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
Don't sleep on Drew Smyly. He could be a difference maker down the stretch.
 
#630      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
Continuing on the pitching theme, the Jed/Theo regime has done a horrible job developing home-grown pitching. I know that's part of Theo's philosophy, draft and develop position players and acquire arms through trade or free agency. They certainly deserve credit for the acquisition and development of guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, etc. but the lack of pitching depth in the organization is coming home to roost. Theo's recent additions to the staff via trade or free agency have not been very good either. In particular the Quintana trade may end up being a real loser.
 
#631      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
[ W ] #65

For context, through 112 games over the past five seasons, the Cubs record has been:
  • 2018: 65-47
  • 2017: 59-53
  • 2016: 71-41
  • 2015: 64-48
  • 2014: 48-64
 
#632      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Illiniaaron said:
Continuing on the pitching theme, the Jed/Theo regime has done a horrible job developing home-grown pitching. I know that's part of Theo's philosophy, draft and develop position players and acquire arms through trade or free agency. They certainly deserve credit for the acquisition and development of guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, etc. but the lack of pitching depth in the organization is coming home to roost. Theo's recent additions to the staff via trade or free agency have not been very good either. In particular the Quintana trade may end up being a real loser.
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I don't see how the Quintana trade can end up being a loser. They traded for a guy who is contributing to the team's championship window for some guys who wouldn't be contributing to the Cubs' championship window. The fact that Quintana is underachieving a bit doesn't mean that he isn't a plus pitcher for a team that has a good shot at another World Series. You were going to have to trade Eloy or someone off the MLB roster eventually. They traded Eloy. He might end up better than Schwarber or Happ. He might not. But Schwarber and Happ are contributing to the team right now. Dylan Cease might be a great starter. He might be a reliever. His arm might fall off tomorrow. He's a lottery chip.

They hit on nearly every one of their buy-low free agent starters early on and used them and the pitchers that were currently in the Cubs' system (Shark, Garza, Dempster, Cashner, etc.) to build a large chunk of the current team. They've done a good job targeting relief pitchers with strong, consistent track records. They've done a good job targeting developmental starters and turning them into producers (Hendricks, Arrieta, Montgomery). They're about 50-50 in terms of signing back of the rotation free agents. They've spent big money on front end free agents three times. Lester has been a slam dunk. Edwin Jackson was a disaster. And Darvish is too early to tell, but not looking good so far. If he comes back and pitches well in September and the playoffs, no one will care about the first two thirds of this season.

It really comes down to the drafting. The early commentary on the Theo/Hoyer not having drafted a pitcher to make the majors was silly. Pitchers take longer to develop and they hadn't been with the Cubs long enough.

Johnson, Blackburn and Underwood from 2012. Zastryzny and Godley from 2013. (And Poncedeleon, who didn't sign that year.) Norwood from 2014.

Yeah, Godley, who was traded for Montero, is the only one who has made any sort of mark. But what do you expect? Underwood, who was drafted in 2012 is still only 23 years old. He could still be a couple years away from being a contributor.

The Cubs used their high draft picks in the drafts from 2012 to 2015 on position players. And the drafted very well, getting Almora, Bryant, Schwarber and Happ. The best pitcher to come out of the 2012 draft so far is Gauseman or Stroman. 2013, Sean Manaea and Sonny Gray. 2014 Aaron Nola. 2015 and later... nobody. It just takes more time for guys to develop and establish themselves.

Given the examples of the early 00s Cubs, or the Mets of right now, or the Cardinals' experience in trying to compete with a really young starting pitching staff, or the Nats perpetually waiting for Strasburg to be healthy in the playoffs... I'm perfectly happy with the direction Theo and co. have taken.
 
#633      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
champaignchris said:
I don't see how the Quintana trade can end up being a loser. They traded for a guy who is contributing to the team's championship window for some guys who wouldn't be contributing to the Cubs' championship window. The fact that Quintana is underachieving a bit doesn't mean that he isn't a plus pitcher for a team that has a good shot at another World Series. You were going to have to trade Eloy or someone off the MLB roster eventually. They traded Eloy. He might end up better than Schwarber or Happ. He might not. But Schwarber and Happ are contributing to the team right now. Dylan Cease might be a great starter. He might be a reliever. His arm might fall off tomorrow. He's a lottery chip.
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Could they have held on to those guys and used them this year to get someone better than Q? Yeah, I get the "young cost controlled" description for Quintana but to me, this is who is and has been with the White Sox. And if this is truly the case, then in my mind, they will lose this trade in the long run.
 
#634      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
champaignchris said:
I don't see how the Quintana trade can end up being a loser. They traded for a guy who is contributing to the team's championship window for some guys who wouldn't be contributing to the Cubs' championship window. The fact that Quintana is underachieving a bit doesn't mean that he isn't a plus pitcher for a team that has a good shot at another World Series. You were going to have to trade Eloy or someone off the MLB roster eventually. They traded Eloy. He might end up better than Schwarber or Happ. He might not. But Schwarber and Happ are contributing to the team right now. Dylan Cease might be a great starter. He might be a reliever. His arm might fall off tomorrow. He's a lottery chip.
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I'll be surprised if Eloy does not become a superstar.
 
#637      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
I know expectations should be tempered seeing as it's the Royals, but Montgomery and Hamels playing 1/0 run ball is 100% needed.

Hamels didn't look great this time out, but got the job done. Hoping for both Smyly and Darvish back. I love Montgomery starting, but I think having a guy that can go 3/4 innings if a starting pitcher has a rough start in the playoffs is a heavily underrated weapon. Lester, Hendricks, Q, and some combo of Hamels/Darvish/Smyly in the playoffs is still a top 10 rotation with probably a top 5 pen.
 
#638      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
champaignchris said:
I don't see how the Quintana trade can end up being a loser. They traded for a guy who is contributing to the team's championship window for some guys who wouldn't be contributing to the Cubs' championship window. The fact that Quintana is underachieving a bit doesn't mean that he isn't a plus pitcher for a team that has a good shot at another World Series.
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He's not contributing much with a 0.6 WAR and a -0.2 WAA which indicates you could pretty much replace him with any other middling starter off of another team. Plus they traded their top two prospects for him. And if you don't think Jiminez or Cease would have contributed to the Cubs championship window, you must believe it is 2018 or bust for this group, which I do not. Eloy will be up next year for sure with the Sox and the optics will be awful if he is raking it while Quintana continues to muddle around with a 4+ ERA.
 
#639      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Illiniaaron said:
He's not contributing much with a 0.6 WAR and a -0.2 WAA which indicates you could pretty much replace him with any other middling starter off of another team. Plus they traded their top two prospects for him. And if you don't think Jiminez or Cease would have contributed to the Cubs championship window, you must believe it is 2018 or bust for this group, which I do not. Eloy will be up next year for sure with the Sox and the optics will be awful if he is raking it while Quintana continues to muddle around with a 4+ ERA.
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We needed another controllable starter, preferably one that wouldnt cost 30m a year. Quintana was one of, if not the only one, to fit that mold. Try to remember hindsight. Cubs gave up a lot, as did teams who traded the likes of Russell, Arrieta, etc. to us did, and I might say for much worse MLB talent. Quintana needs consistency. He can be a 2nd/3rd guy. a year's worth of return isn't what we paid for him. If he doesn't step up, then yeah it'll be a bust, but if he helps us win a WS, it will be at worse a wash.
 
#640      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
Illiniaaron said:
He's not contributing much with a 0.6 WAR and a -0.2 WAA which indicates you could pretty much replace him with any other middling starter off of another team. Plus they traded their top two prospects for him. And if you don't think Jiminez or Cease would have contributed to the Cubs championship window, you must believe it is 2018 or bust for this group, which I do not. Eloy will be up next year for sure with the Sox and the optics will be awful if he is raking it while Quintana continues to muddle around with a 4+ ERA.
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With all due respect, the optics will not be awful. The Cubs made a trade for a #2/3 starter with frontline potential in an attempt to win another World Series in 2017 (and beyond).

Do you feel the the same way about the optics with Gleyber Torres being traded for Aroldis Chapman? Or how about the optics of Jim Hendry trading Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden in 2008? Some trades turn out wonderfully, some do not. And if we fans are playing the trade scale game, I think the Cubs were due for some karmic balance after the robbery of the Orioles in receiving Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta for a 5th starter in Scott Feldman and a backup catcher with questionable character.

At a certain point, the Cubs were going to deal their prospects for ready-now players to win. They had an OF logjam, they dealt a top OF prospect, they acquired a quality starter with contract control, and the jury is still out.

Long story short, the Cubs have been insufferable to watch for decades. There is a window at present where they have gone to the gone to the NLDS, won the WS, and NLCS in three consecutive years, respectively, with a strong likelihood for a 4th appearance this season.

It is my hope that you can enjoy the ride.
 
#642      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Interesting scheduling quirk for the Cubs during the month of September. Except for a 3 game series in Arizona, the Cubs will not play a game outside the city of Chicago from September 10th through the final game of the season on September 30th.
 
#644      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
IanKEvans2 said:
With all due respect, the optics will not be awful. The Cubs made a trade for a #2/3 starter with frontline potential in an attempt to win another World Series in 2017 (and beyond).
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They will be if he continues to pitch to this level. Len Kasper tweeted a couple of weeks ago something along the lines of, "This is who he is, folks". IMO, this is a time where the fancy stats don't back up the eye test. When the trade was first made, I loved it. I didn't see him pitch much so I had to rely on his stats. His stats were good but I don't think he's shown that with the Cubs. I guess the question is why? What's different here that was different 8 miles south? Of course, it's not as easy as that, but something's different. He's not the same guy he was.

Do you feel the the same way about the optics with Gleyber Torres being traded for Aroldis Chapman?
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I do that trade 100 times out of 100. I know of no one who would walk that trade back. I think any rational thinking Cubs fan would do that trade over again, seeing the prize was something they hadn't seen in 108 years.

Or how about the optics of Jim Hendry trading Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden in 2008?
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This one is a bit tougher. He was awesome in 2008 but not so much in 2009. He was essentially a two pitch pitcher when he was he and he dominated. I wouldn't necessarily have a problem making this trade again but who knows who else was available and who they talked to at the time. But in general, I'm not against it.

Some trades turn out wonderfully, some do not. And if we fans are playing the trade scale game, I think the Cubs were due for some karmic balance after the robbery of the Orioles in receiving Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta for a 5th starter in Scott Feldman and a backup catcher with questionable character.
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I don't believe in karma. :)

It is my hope that you can enjoy the ride.
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No one is a bigger Cubs fan than I. I lived in Scotland from 2013-2016 and live in Houston now and I still have seasons tickets (for the past 8 or 9 years). I am 52 years old and yes, I am enjoying it immensely, having suffered for this long. I am hoping for a Braves type run from the 1990s.
 
#645      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
bdutts said:
They will be if he continues to pitch to this level. Len Kasper tweeted a couple of weeks ago something along the lines of, "This is who he is, folks". IMO, this is a time where the fancy stats don't back up the eye test. When the trade was first made, I loved it. I didn't see him pitch much so I had to rely on his stats. His stats were good but I don't think he's shown that with the Cubs. I guess the question is why? What's different here that was different 8 miles south? Of course, it's not as easy as that, but something's different. He's not the same guy he was.

I do that trade 100 times out of 100. I know of no one who would walk that trade back. I think any rational thinking Cubs fan would do that trade over again, seeing the prize was something they hadn't seen in 108 years.

This one is a bit tougher. He was awesome in 2008 but not so much in 2009. He was essentially a two pitch pitcher when he was he and he dominated. I wouldn't necessarily have a problem making this trade again but who knows who else was available and who they talked to at the time. But in general, I'm not against it.



I don't believe in karma. :)



No one is a bigger Cubs fan than I. I lived in Scotland from 2013-2016 and live in Houston now and I still have seasons tickets (for the past 8 or 9 years). I am 52 years old and yes, I am enjoying it immensely, having suffered for this long. I am hoping for a Braves type run from the 1990s.
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I appreciate your response! I've enjoyed our interactions over the years on this forum.

With regard to the Quintana/Chapman trade comparisons, I think the prize is still the same, it's just that the Cubs haven't been not yet cashed in on it a second time. Does Quintana have to win a WS game for the optics of the trade to be okay? From my point of view, if he contributes to the push for the Cubs getting another title shot during his tenure on the north side, that's a success. Despite something is definitely being different, I'd do the Quintana trade 100 times out of 100.

As far as karma goes, I'm not a believer either, it just helped me describe the unpredictability of the win/loss aspects of trades in baseball. :)

Generationally, I've been fortunate when it comes to being a Cubs fan. I'm 28-years-old and have been spared a fair amount of heartache and waiting. 2003 hurt, but 2008 against the Dodgers was crushing. When the Cubs won it in 2018, I had lecture the following evening. When Davis hit the game-tying home run, I drafted an email to send to my students that class was canceled. It's still in my "drafts" folder.

Cheers to a long run of Cubs success!
 
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#649      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
That was a sinking 2-seemer right at the bottom of the zone. Almost exactly where the catcher called for it. A perfect pitch for anyone with trouble hitting low heat..

Except that nearly every one of Bote’s hits this year have been low in the zone. He crushes low heat and the Nats intentionally threw it right in his wheelhouse.

That’s the type of thing that gets pitching coaches fired.