bdutts
- Houston, Texas
It's only money at this point. Nothing else. It doesn't cost any prospects or draft picks or anything other than cash. And unfortunately, I think your last sentence is key.
Chicago Cubs 2025
- Status
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
FIFY
Good look? Would it have been a good luck to stand pat? No Cubs fan any qualms about Paredes being in trade. He’s a 26 year old with his 4th team and with a lifetime .232 BA. Again, not sure of your definition of a “star,” but, sure Cam could turn out to be a really good player. Or he could turn out to be average or worse. Are Happ and Seiya stars? I don’t think so. Good players, yes. Stars, no. I think it is much more likely that is the ceiling for Cam (and no guarantee) than becoming a star. And going into what became their rookie years, Happ was ranked 28 on prospects list and Seiya, 37. Cam is #55 this year.
Below are the 54-56 ranked prospects going back to 2018. Not a lot of stars on that list yet. Crochet is probably the closest, and some nice players on the list, but also some players that haven’t panned out at all. I’ll take a year of a known superstar with a ridiculously fair salary over a lottery ticket.
2024
Matt Shaw
Curtis Mead
Dylan Leslie
2023
Michael Bush
Endy Rodriguez
Gavin Stone
2022
Quinn Priester
Tyler Soderstrom
Nick Yorke
2021
Kristian Robinson
Garrett Crochet
Kelbert Ruiz
2020
Jasson Dominguez
Josh Jung
Evan White
2019
Brady Singer
Matthew Liberatore
Jarred Kelenic
2018
Alec Henson
Matt Manning
Keaton Hiura
I always love when someone starts their argument with “cut and dried” and follows it up with “NEVER.”
If you want to characterize the Cubs as “small market,” fine But there is a vast difference between the Cubs payroll and other small market teams like Pittsburgh.
I’ve noticed you like to throw around the term Moneyball, but I’m not sure you really understand what that means. It is about getting talent at a discount of its true value. Sure developing your own players is part of that, but it doesn’t mean never trade prospects. Tucker is only the fifth or sixth highest salary on team. He’s 95th in all of baseball salary-wise. MLB ranked him as 14th best player going into season. That is the value Moneyball is about.
This is the exact kind of year you make that trade. Cubs had an overall solid team but needed a big bat. Tucker has been all we could have asked for at a relatively low salary. Maybe not a good trade for a team like small market Pittsburgh, but a good one for small market Cubs.
If the Cubs miss playoffs, it reflects poorly on the whole team that Hoyer put together not the Tucker trade. You think the Cubs would be better this year with the 3 players Cubs traded than they are with Tucker? Not even close. People act like Cam is a guaranteed future star. He’s not. He should be a solid player and maybe more, but no guarantees.
I believe Eloy Jimenez was a top 15, can’t miss prospect when the Cubs traded him. He had one good year. Yes, injuries likely derailed his career, but those things happen. You can get a top 15 MLB talent at a very fair salary for basically the #55 prospect, you do it — even if only have that player for a year.
Unless you miss the playoffs and don't resign him.
I still make that trade. Cubs are not a playoff contender without him. I’m not holding on to #55 prospect in baseball hoping he pans out in 2, 3, or 4 years down the line when I have a chance for top 15 player. Sure it would be better if Tucker had 2 or 3 more years on his contract, but I’ll let you in on a secret. If he did, Cubs wouldn’t have gotten him for Paredes, Smith and Wesneski.
Realistically, this roster should win this division by 10 games. Just because the division is that bad. Both the AL Central and NL Central are deplorable IMO. And I don't think Tucker is a 10 WAR player. So we will see.
We really need that #2 seed though, and then some starting pitching and bullpen improvements so we have a punter's chance against the Dodgers in a 7 games series.
The Cubs are not missing the playoffs. They are by far the best team in the division and it’s not close. Hoyer has built this team on youth through the system. That is how you build a winning team.
Additionally, what would the Cubs chances of signing Tucker off the free agent market be had he never worn the uniform? I tend to believe he will be more inclined to stay, all else being equal.
I also think the Cubs are staying under the tax this year because they know they have to exceed it again now that the window is cracking back open.
I agree. I think the Cubs will make the playoffs. But that will be in large part because of Tucker and how he makes others better. And I agree somewhat with what you say except for one key part. You build a team on youth through the system, but to take that next step to “playoff team” you often need to augment it with top talent from outside. Tucker is truly a top talent and at a very team friendly salary. We got him for basically a good prospect, but by no means a can’t miss prospect. Well worth the gamble in my book.
I agree. They will be spending next year. Once Steele went down again, they will need to pull a trade to get a front line starter and it will take prospects to do it. It will not be a rental. It will be a guy who has years left on a deal or a guy who has not hit FA yet. They will sign Tucker or make a solid offer to him. Alcantara has two years left counting this year with an option for 27. It will cost us 3 or 4 prospects but it’s well worth it. I believe that Hoyer will sign Tucker, extend PCA and have Alcantara to go along with Imanaga and one more year of Taillon, Brown and Boyd if he is still here. Getting to the playoffs will be a taste for next year when they go all in.
I don’t think Tucker’s WAR will be 10. Probably between 5 and 6. But I don’t think WAR completely accounts for total value to a team. Having a player like Tucker in the lineup does help elevate the stats of others in the lineup that would be only reflected in those other players’ WAR. Then there is the whole psychological/mental impact. Those kinds of things can’t be measured, but anyone who has played sports knows they are real.
I’d give him more time. I think he only pitched about 40 innings last year, which is also about the same amount of innings he has pitched at AAA in total. He’s also only thrown as many as 5 innings once in four starts this year. Certainly could see him this year, but not just yet.
Through the system? Go around the field and see how many he drafted the ths Cubs developed.
1B - Busch - Dodgers
2B - Hoerner - Cubs (Epstein)
SS - Swanson - Atlanta
3B - ?????? - ?????
RF - Tucker - Astros
CF - PCA - Mets
RF - Happ - Cubs(Epstein)
C - Amaya - Cubs
P -
Imanaga - Free Agent - Japan
Steele - Cubs
Boyd- Cleveland
Taillon - Pittsburgh
Brown - Cubs (Hoyer hit)
This is not a roster built on draft and development. It's been trades and acquisition. The Cubs haven't been able to develop a pitching staff in YEARS.
We'll see if guys like Shaw, Horton, Alcantara, etc ever find their ways into being contributors.
The NL Central has the best run differential in baseball by a significant margin, better than the vaunted NL West. But, yeah, the AL Central is the worst.
But the west has won more games than the central, even with the Rockies having only 4 wins. 68 west 61 central.
When they decide who will be in the playoffs, run differential isn't considered. OKAY, I have ranted about run differential twice. I will stop.
Go Cubs Go!!!
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I tend to agree with the logic that with his limited time last year, he probably only has about ~100 innings in him this year, they are clearly pretty unhittable innings, so why waste them in Iowa?
Worth a look see. Not a lot to lose.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
The way I look at your list is as follows: If Theo drafted a guy, since Jed was Theo's right-hand man and part of the team, he gets credit for that draft, too. Also, if the Cubs traded for a guy, especially A level players or if guys spent "some time" in the minors before coming up, then that should count as Cubs development. For example, Pete Crow-Armstrong was drafted in 2020 and was traded to the Cubs in 2021. He spent most of his minor league time with the Cubs so that counts as Cubs development. So, in your list above, PCA switches from Mets to Cubs and that's the only change I see. But your overall point still stands.
Just my opinion...
I'm too lazy to do any research but I'm not sure this is any different than any other mid or major market team.
- Status