Chicago Cubs 2026

#601      
bdutts
EyeoftheIllini said:
If an organization can figure out how to keep their pitchers relatively healthy whether it be with conditioning, usage, how they throw, etc., it will have a huge advantage.
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This is an interesting point. Back in the 70s and 80s, guys weren't on pitch counts and there were four man rotations and there weren't really closers, at least in the same way there are closers now. So it wasn't out of the question that a guy would pitch 130 pitches in a game then go out there in four days and do it again. I realize that there is more crazy movement and pitches these days. I also know that maximum velocity and maximum spin rate are king. I wonder if there is or has been a study comparing the velocity and spin rates of the 70s and 80s to today and then correlate that back to injuries.

Is pitching 180 innings with more torque on the elbow and shoulder worse than pitching 300 innings with less torque? In thinking about it, would seem like less innings and five man rotations would result in less injuries but the eye test suggests otherwise. Maybe this year is an outlier, not sure. But it's an interesting discussion for sure.
 
#603      
champaignchris
bdutts said:
This is an interesting point. Back in the 70s and 80s, guys weren't on pitch counts and there were four man rotations and there weren't really closers, at least in the same way there are closers now. So it wasn't out of the question that a guy would pitch 130 pitches in a game then go out there in four days and do it again. I realize that there is more crazy movement and pitches these days. I also know that maximum velocity and maximum spin rate are king. I wonder if there is or has been a study comparing the velocity and spin rates of the 70s and 80s to today and then correlate that back to injuries.

Is pitching 180 innings with more torque on the elbow and shoulder worse than pitching 300 innings with less torque? In thinking about it, would seem like less innings and five man rotations would result in less injuries but the eye test suggests otherwise. Maybe this year is an outlier, not sure. But it's an interesting discussion for sure.
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I also think we tend to romanticize the few who were able to pitch huge innings totals back in the 70s-80s while forgetting those whose arms fell off before they got to age 30.

Mark Fidrych threw 250 innings at age 21, winning rookie of the year, and his career was effectively over at age 25.

Fernando Valenzuela was a HoF level pitcher while pitching 230+ innings a year from age 20-26, and was then a barely replacement level pitcher who could!’t stay healthy for the rest of his career.

The things Sandy Koufax had to do to keep pitching were nightmarish and he retired at age 30.

Bruce Sutter threw almost 100 innings a year out of the pen from age 23 to 31 and then his career was effectively over.

And these are just some of the big names. There’s an enormous number of guys who had one great 100 inning season out of the pen and then immediately got hurt and was never heard from again.
 
#605      
Emerson Bigguns
bdutts said:
This is an interesting point. Back in the 70s and 80s, guys weren't on pitch counts and there were four man rotations and there weren't really closers, at least in the same way there are closers now. So it wasn't out of the question that a guy would pitch 130 pitches in a game then go out there in four days and do it again. I realize that there is more crazy movement and pitches these days. I also know that maximum velocity and maximum spin rate are king. I wonder if there is or has been a study comparing the velocity and spin rates of the 70s and 80s to today and then correlate that back to injuries.

Is pitching 180 innings with more torque on the elbow and shoulder worse than pitching 300 innings with less torque? In thinking about it, would seem like less innings and five man rotations would result in less injuries but the eye test suggests otherwise. Maybe this year is an outlier, not sure. But it's an interesting discussion for sure.
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It's kind of wild. I'm sure it is something that will have to be considered in the next CBA. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more 6 man rotations in the future. If I had a say, I'd be advocating for another roster spot for pitchers. Other than the added expense, I think it would be a win for both the players and management. The schedule is relentless sometimes.
I don't think any Front Office is going to try to get guys not to throw so hard or attempt to generate less torque. It wouldn't work anyway. The vast majority of guys who make it to the majors are way too competitive to take anything for granted.

Seemingly, the only way to help the issue is less usage.

It would make a lot of records untouchable, but many of them already are. Might have to re-calibrate what a HOF pitchers stats look like, but there are plenty of stats to show effectiveness in comparison to contemporaries.
 
#606      
Emerson Bigguns
Regarding Boyd, Carter Hawkins today:

Hawkins shared that Boyd underwent surgery on Thursday morning. He also announced that the Boyd did not require a full repair and had more of a "trimming."

“It’s more than a month for sure, and then we’ll kind of figure it out from there … So we’re optimistic about a quicker timeline," Hawkins said.
 
#608      
2X2L
Pitching is not just about throwing 100 mph fastballs and falling off the mound after. Fastballs right down the middle should be clobbered. Check out Fergie Jenkins and Greg Maddux, among so many others. Thing called smarts. Thing called pitching, not throwing.
 
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#609      
Illinisam
Grandpa said:
I don't think that there is much doubt that the 100 MPH and high spin rate is injuring pitchers.
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Bingo! I had a college pitcher friend who said pitchers today are throwing a lot harder than when he did in the mid 70s to late 70s. The human body is not meant to throw that hard for long periods of time. Those guys who know how to pitch instead of trying to strike everybody out will have longer careers just like Greg Maddux did.
 
#611      
EyeoftheIllini
champaignchris said:
I also think we tend to romanticize the few who were able to pitch huge innings totals back in the 70s-80s while forgetting those whose arms fell off before they got to age 30.

Mark Fidrych threw 250 innings at age 21, winning rookie of the year, and his career was effectively over at age 25.

Fernando Valenzuela was a HoF level pitcher while pitching 230+ innings a year from age 20-26, and was then a barely replacement level pitcher who could!’t stay healthy for the rest of his career.

The things Sandy Koufax had to do to keep pitching were nightmarish and he retired at age 30.

Bruce Sutter threw almost 100 innings a year out of the pen from age 23 to 31 and then his career was effectively over.

And these are just some of the big names. There’s an enormous number of guys who had one great 100 inning season out of the pen and then immediately got hurt and was never heard from again.
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Rather than romanticizing, you pulled out some of the noteworthy careers that ended early. But I don’t think anyone is saying that there weren’t injuries back in those eras. And many of those career-ending injuries aren’t career ending now.

I haven’t kept up with studies, but saw results a year or two ago and injuries are going up. Don’t think anyone really disputes that. I seem to remember April and May are typically the highest months too, in large part because pitchers aren’t giving their arms rest during off season. Just about as soon as the season ends, they’re at pitching “labs” trying to add more velocity or spin.

I really don’t think moving to a six man rotation as someone suggested would make a bit of difference. It’s not just SPs who are getting hurt as Cubs Fans can attest too. It’s all about the torque and very little about the usage. Not sure how they’ll fix it if it is even fixable. And with the advances to medicine, not sure there is the incentive for the players to want to fix it. Get hurt, have surgery, rehab and back at it.
 
#612      
EyeoftheIllini
Emerson Bigguns said:
It's kind of wild. I'm sure it is something that will have to be considered in the next CBA. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more 6 man rotations in the future. If I had a say, I'd be advocating for another roster spot for pitchers. Other than the added expense, I think it would be a win for both the players and management. The schedule is relentless sometimes.
I don't think any Front Office is going to try to get guys not to throw so hard or attempt to generate less torque. It wouldn't work anyway. The vast majority of guys who make it to the majors are way too competitive to take anything for granted.

Seemingly, the only way to help the issue is less usage.

It would make a lot of records untouchable, but many of them already are. Might have to re-calibrate what a HOF pitchers stats look like, but there are plenty of stats to show effectiveness in comparison to contemporaries.
Click to expand...
I don’t think a six-man rotation or less usage will make a bit of difference. It’s not usage, it’s torque. If it was usage, you’d see rate of injuries go up as season went on and I’m pretty certain that isn’t the case.

I don’t know what the fix is or if there is even one. I actually think most front offices would love to move away from max effort. But as you point out, the individual pitchers themselves likely wouldn’t do it.
 
#613      
Grandpa
EyeoftheIllini said:
I don’t think a six-man rotation or less usage will make a bit of difference. It’s not usage, it’s torque. If it was usage, you’d see rate of injuries go up as season went on and I’m pretty certain that isn’t the case.

I don’t know what the fix is or if there is even one. I actually think most front offices would love to move away from max effort. But as you point out, the individual pitchers themselves likely wouldn’t do it.
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It gets outs and is rewarded. How do you back away? The max speed and torque guy is getting called up, the other guy is in double A
 
#614      
pruman91
Grandpa said:
I don't think that there is much doubt that the 100 MPH and high spin rate is injuring pitchers.
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I threw pretty hard as a youngster and was told by many veteran players and coaches in the early 60's to hold off throwing curve balls until I was older to avoid injuring my arm before it was fully developed........one was a scout for the Cardinals after watching my pitching in an American Legion tourney game.........I started being a musician in a rock band shortly after that.....there was something different with young ladies cheering for you at the stage compared to the cheers from playing baseball.....

there really really was....lol....
 
#615      
tell it like it is
pruman91 said:
I threw pretty hard as a youngster and was told by many veteran players and coaches in the early 60's to hold off throwing curve balls until I was older to avoid injuring my arm before it was fully developed........one was a scout for the Cardinals after watching my pitching in an American Legion tourney game.........I started being a musician in a rock band shortly after that.....there was something different with young ladies cheering for you at the stage compared to the cheers from playing baseball.....

there really really was....lol....
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We have so many paralles it is scary. Short stop for me with speed and great arm. Cant throw a ball to my grandchildren over 10 yards now. Glad I switched to musician. Your 100% right about the young ladies! I've never regretted the switch.
 
#616      
EyeoftheIllini
Grandpa said:
It gets outs and is rewarded. How do you back away? The max speed and torque guy is getting called up, the other guy is in double A
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It would take a different mindset across the league, which isn’t going to happen. And even if you could get the consensus by organizations, individual pictures wouldn’t abide for the reason you state. That’s why I said in my original post that started this discussion, if an organization can find a way whether it be with philosophy or technology where they could measure where a pitcher’s “sweet spot” is that is under max effort but where a pitcher’s effectiveness doesn’t drop off that much, it would have a big advantage.

If you can have four guys in your rotation who can have an ERA between 2.50 to 4.00 and aren’t going down to injuries every year — some that cost a year or more — you’d probably be better off. Again, no idea how you get there. But I don’t think a 6-man rotation would make much of a difference if any.
 
#617      
ChiefGritty
EyeoftheIllini said:
It would take a different mindset across the league, which isn’t going to happen. And even if you could get the consensus by organizations, individual pictures wouldn’t abide for the reason you state. That’s why I said in my original post that started this discussion, if an organization can find a way whether it be with philosophy or technology where they could measure where a pitcher’s “sweet spot” is that is under max effort but where a pitcher’s effectiveness doesn’t drop off that much, it would have a big advantage.

If you can have four guys in your rotation who can have an ERA between 2.50 to 4.00 and aren’t going down to injuries every year — some that cost a year or more — you’d probably be better off. Again, no idea how you get there. But I don’t think a 6-man rotation would make much of a difference if any.
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If you actually listen to pitchers they are as candid about the willingness to risk their bodies to make money and achieve excellence as NFL players are (and thankfully in their case a bum arm is not as negative of a long-term consequence). They know their elbows won't hold up and they do it anyway eyes wide open.

It sounds ridiculous, but in the era of high tech pitch tracking it's technologically feasible: any pitch over 95mph is a ball. And then manage the advantage the hitters gain by some combo of expanding the strike zone and lowering the mound.

It seems crazy and anti-baseball to me too. But baseball cannot legislate the durability of the human UCL. If this is a problem the sport can't live with, just legislating velocity out of the game can be done.
 
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#618      
AssemblyHallForever
Emerson Bigguns said:
It's kind of wild. I'm sure it is something that will have to be considered in the next CBA. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more 6 man rotations in the future. If I had a say, I'd be advocating for another roster spot for pitchers. Other than the added expense, I think it would be a win for both the players and management. The schedule is relentless sometimes.
I don't think any Front Office is going to try to get guys not to throw so hard or attempt to generate less torque. It wouldn't work anyway. The vast majority of guys who make it to the majors are way too competitive to take anything for granted.

Seemingly, the only way to help the issue is less usage.

It would make a lot of records untouchable, but many of them already are. Might have to re-calibrate what a HOF pitchers stats look like, but there are plenty of stats to show effectiveness in comparison to contemporaries.
Click to expand...
There are pros and cons to a 6 man rotation. It will help save the arms in most cases. It might add another roster spot to 27. The union will love that. The cons are it’s hard enough to get 5 solid guys, now adding a 6th starter could be difficult. I like the idea if they add another roster spot.
 
#619      
Emerson Bigguns
EyeoftheIllini said:
I don’t think a six-man rotation or less usage will make a bit of difference. It’s not usage, it’s torque. If it was usage, you’d see rate of injuries go up as season went on and I’m pretty certain that isn’t the case.

I don’t know what the fix is or if there is even one. I actually think most front offices would love to move away from max effort. But as you point out, the individual pitchers themselves likely wouldn’t do it.
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Torque is definitely root of the problem. Generating that torque is traumatic for a lot of structures in your elbow and arm. Often when muscles and ligaments get stressed the best thing to do is rest them, and allow the body time to heal. I'm not arguing that it would solve the problem. We aren't built to throw objects 100 mph, but I find it hard to believe it wouldn't help a little. Another day of physical therapy and rest certainly wouldn't make it worse. I would also propose the idea of looking at the Little League model of a hard cap on the number of pitches a player can make before mandated rest.

Bullpen guys are kind of treated like cannon fodder. You have to ramp up quickly and often get immediately put into high stress situations, where they are never going to do anything but throw as hard as they can. Then they have to come back the next day and possibly do it again. When you are in the middle of a stretch of 12-15 days without an off day, it's impossible to manage.

Sometimes teams are in a long stretch of games and find themselves in a 13-14 inning game, and they have no choice but to either let a guy throw way more than his preparation has conditioned him for, put in a guy who has already pitched in 2-3 consecutive contests, or put the game in the hands of a position player.
They could potentially create a 1 day IL/reserve spot to allow a guy to be deactivated and rotated out for another Bullpen guy when the team deems him unavailable for a particular game due to pitch count/usage.

Nothing is going to fix the issue of torque, but they could do more to give teams the flexibility needed to protect pitchers from themselves and their managers.
 
#620      
ChiefGritty
Emerson Bigguns said:
Another day of physical therapy and rest certainly wouldn't make it worse.
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It would if it's a mechanism to prepare the pitcher to throw even harder, which is exactly what every step in the decades-long reduction in individual pitcher workload has done.
 
#622      
Emerson Bigguns
ChiefGritty said:
It would if it's a mechanism to prepare the pitcher to throw even harder, which is exactly what every step in the decades-long reduction in individual pitcher workload has done.
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I think the first step is for MLB and individual organizations is to admit they have a problem.

I also don't think workload reduction is the primary driver of increased velocity, but rather better technology and more effective workouts. (biomechanics analysis, weighted ball workouts, and data-driven coaching)
 
#623      
ChiefGritty
Emerson Bigguns said:
I also don't think workload reduction is the primary driver of increased velocity, but rather better technology and more effective workouts. (biomechanics analysis, weighted ball workouts, and data-driven coaching)
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It's not the driver so much as it's the space in which that technology gains the capacity to operate.

The maximum stuff a human arm can produce for 80-90 pitches every 5 days with a little extra thrown in around off days and the all-star break is greater than if you're throwing a CG every four days, the biomechanics are optimized to the actual activity.
 
#624      
Emerson Bigguns
ChiefGritty said:
It's not the driver so much as it's the space in which that technology gains the capacity to operate.

The maximum stuff a human arm can produce for 80-90 pitches every 5 days with a little extra thrown in around off days and the all-star break is greater than if you're throwing a CG every four days, the biomechanics are optimized to the actual activity.
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In theory... In practice they seem to be keeping a lot of high priced orthopedic surgeons in business. lol

The current science seems to be pushing the limit of what can be achieved, rather than what can be achieved sustainably. Hopefully their data sets are beginning to provide a better understanding of that risk/reward.

Some pretty interesting data on this site on the subject of Tommy John surgery:
https://wifitalents.com/tommy-john-surgery-statistics/
 
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