Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

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#451      
NarrowJ
Indy Illini Fan said:
Plus let’s not forget Sean lost 2 starters last year in July … Lost his starting big man again this year in July and lost his best player for nearly a month …

We make all the injury excuses in the world for Brad …

This Up Here GIF by Chord Overstreet
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On the contrary, all I've heard is "injuries aren't an excuse"

Otherwise we wouldn't even be having this conversation.
 
#452      
21ChampaignSt
Indy Illini Fan said:
Respectfully disagree … 1 second weekend in 8 years with the amount of talent we’ve had is not meeting the expectation …
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Appreciate ya Indy but c'mon man.
You can't hold 2018 and 2019 against him.

We didn't even have a tourney in 2020.
So, he's made it to the 2nd weekend in 25% of his seasons since then.

At Illinois over a 10 year period, IMO, we should make it to the 2nd weekend about 4 times. It doesn't sound like much but that would put us in pretty elite company.

He is slightly behind that pace but not egregiously so. After this year he will either have a 20% success rate in getting to the second weekend or a 40% success rate.

For reference, Painter has made it to the second weekend in 36% of his seasons. Sean Miller is at 42%. Both over much bigger sample sizes. And over the last 20 years, Illinois still has the same number of Final Fours as both of those coaches combined.
 
#453      
Indy Illini Fan
NarrowJ said:
I said or insinuated zilch about lowering expectations.

Is your argument that the expectation should've been that Brad made the 2nd weekend with the roster he inherited? Because that's what I was pointing out- he rebuilt this program and folks are using those rebuilding years as part of the argument against him, when in fact, that actually is supportive of what he's done.
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He’s underachieved with the amount of talent he’s had in March … I don’t think anyone can argue that …
 
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#454      
Indy Illini Fan
NarrowJ said:
On the contrary, all I've heard is "injuries aren't an excuse"
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They aren’t an excuse when they’re out more than a game or two …

Losing starters for the season in July … Especially 2 starters … One being your best player ?? Then it happens again and you lose your best player again for a month right at the start of conference play …

What would we look like this year if that was us ?
 
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#455      
NarrowJ
Indy Illini Fan said:
He’s underachieved with the amount of talent he’s had in March … I don’t think anyone can argue that …
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I thought we had the best 4 year stretch in conference in the history of our program.

I realize that the outcomes of the final 5-10% of the season is more heavily weighted than the other 90-95% of games, but I feel like using only NCAA tournament success as a measuring stick is extremely short sighted. If I am evaluating someone's work, I am going to look at the entire body of work as a whole.
 
#456      
NarrowJ
Indy Illini Fan said:
They aren’t an excuse when they’re out a game or two …

Losing starters for the season in July … Especially 2 starters … One being your best player ?? Then it happens again and you lose your best player again for a month right at the start of conference play …

What would we look like this year if that was us ?
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"a game or two"

I think you are selling our injury situation a little short this season.
 
#457      
217sports
madcrazeeballa said:
Illinois under Brad Underwood:

NCAA Tournament Year - Finish
2018 - No tournament
2019 - No tournament
2020 - COVID
2021 - 1 - Round of 32
2022 - 4 - Round of 32
2023 - 9 - Round of 64
2024 - 3 - Elite Eight

If you use this and expected number of wins from when we made the tournament: https://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html (thanks whomever did this)

2021 - 1 seed - 3.30 wins
2022 - 4 seed - 1.56 wins
2023 - 9 seed - .62 wins
2024 - 3 seed - 1.84 wins

I believe that's 7.32 wins expected in 4 tournaments and his actual is 5 wins (Rd 32 {1 win}, Rd 32 {1 win}, Rd 64 {0 wins}, Elite Eight {3 wins}). So even ignoring what he inherited and the first 3 years of his tenure, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he's underachieved in the NCAA tournament.

FWIW, I like old fiery Brad and what he's done to turn the program around is amazing. But I don't see the fire in him on the sideline and there are times where his stubbornness and resistance to in-game adjustments absolutely hurts the team.
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Tournament sample size success/failure vs season long sample size. Sure we have underachieved in the tournament (what Big Ten team hasn't?) but what we have done in the regular season has been nothing short of fantastic. Coaches should not be solely evaluated by the NCAAT.
 
#459      
Indy Illini Fan
NarrowJ said:
"a game or two"

I think you are selling our injury situation a little short this season.
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What player on the team besides Morez going forward has missed more than a couple games ?

KJ missed two games … Tomi missed three games …

Injury and sickness issues for sure but in terms of games missed … It’s only been a couple …
 
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#460      
SVSTORM
Our best teams have had continuity and cohesion. I keep hearing that this team is close but I just haven’t seen it. Nothing compared to the Mayer season but not even close to the chemistry of last year and the Ayo/Trent/DMFW years. I remember seeing so many tight huddles on court after fouls and I think that is very telling. Why has Brad gone away from that?

Brad has been most successful at Illinois with cohesion and continuity, which makes a few coaching changes even more significant this offseason. We won’t be much older and we won’t have great chemistry if mass roster turnover happens again like many expect. Without a couple Xs and Os guys on staff, I can’t imagine a big improvement next year.
 
#463      
NarrowJ
Indy Illini Fan said:
What player on the team besides Morez going forward has missed more than a couple games ?

KJ missed two games … Tomi missed three games …

Injury and sickness issues for sure but in terms of games missed … It’s only been a couple …
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We've had guys playing while sick & injured which imo is worse than having them rest & get better. So there's something I don't like about how this season has been managed.

Litigating all of the injuries & illnesses we've had is a waste of time anyway, as going 17-10 (9-8) on the heels of an E8 appearance while having only 1 returnee does not get you fired.
 
#464      
Illini2010-11
Indy Illini Fan said:
Respectfully disagree … 1 second weekend in 8 years with the amount of talent we’ve had is not meeting the expectation …
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100% accurate. Illinois had some bad breaks down the stretch in a couple of those runs (i.e., Frazier's eye issue/running into a hot Houston team, etc.), but not making it to the second weekend as a 1 seed (losing to a small in-state private school), will always sting bad. If the Illini made the S16 or E8 in march 2021, I think the consensus would be much different here. But barring something crazy changing over the next three weeks, first weekend exits in 4 out of the last 5 NCAA tourneys is not acceptable given the talent and money spent on the program, IMO. Don't get me wrong, it is nice getting used to hearing our name get selected to the tourney year in and out, but it just feels like the team is gassed or underperforms in the tourney (last year being exception).
 
#466      
RimPressure
LvilleILL1 said:
I'll hear people out the minute the season ends. Illinois should still be in the tourney and anything can happen once you get in. Win 2 games and people on here will be praising him again, if not it's fair to criticize.
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Fair enough. If we manage to win 2 games in the tournament, then I will be joining in with heaping the praise on Brad.

BUT, here is my main issue: Even if that does indeed happen, mixed in with all of the praise, I still will want the assistant coaching situation addressed. My sense is that we currently have 3 assistant coaches on staff that couldn't get a parallel position on ANY other top-tier program, and if I'm correct in that assessment, that's not a place where we want to be. (am I wrong in this assessment?)

And even if we manage to win 2 games, I still don't want to repeat bringing in multiple 1-and-dones combined with lots of portal transfers. If we miss on portal evaluations and don't keep those players, it leads to too much roster turnover AGAIN after we just had too much. I'm fine with paying the price once in return for a nice run with an old team, but we need to avoid doing it every year unless we're getting yet another deep run in return.

On the other hand, even if we lose out and manage to miss the tournament, I will still want to give Brad a shot at running it back and righting the ship next year with the pieces we can manage to keep along with a couple stars from the portal. (With the assistant coaching changes)
 
#468      
Indy Illini Fan
thefalcon5 said:
I have doubts Josh would go after Beard given his background, but no insider info there. That being said Beard is a better coach than BU.
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Josh is very well connected and an extremely smart man … He knows about the situation with Beard …

I’m not going to speak for him but I can say that Beard would go through the process like any other candidate if we were in search mode … And if Josh found something then he would move in another direction … But Josh would at least be interested in speaking with him, he’d be dumb not to …
 
#469      
Aillini32
Indy Illini Fan said:
They aren’t an excuse when they’re out more than a game or two …

Losing starters for the season in July … Especially 2 starters … One being your best player ?? Then it happens again and you lose your best player again for a month right at the start of conference play …

What would we look like this year if that was us ?
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Think things are bad now? Just wait till we get an elite coach who has us miss the NCAA Tournament because a Long Beach State transfer big who averaged over 3 fouls a game in the WAC goes down for the year. There’s at least a 50% chance that Traore is not a good HM player. Freemantle also missed just 3 games…

We get it you’re buddies with Sean, but getting half of this board to believe he is some savior is wild.
 
#470      
Indy Illini Fan
RimPressure said:
Fair enough. If we manage to win 2 games in the tournament, then I will be joining in with heaping the praise on Brad.

BUT, here is my main issue: Even if that does indeed happen, mixed in with all of the praise, I still will want the assistant coaching situation addressed. My sense is that we currently have 3 assistant coaches on staff that couldn't get a parallel position on ANY other top-tier program, and if I'm correct in that assessment, that's not a place where we want to be. (am I wrong in this assessment?)

And even if we manage to win 2 games, I still don't want to repeat bringing in multiple 1-and-dones combined with lots of portal transfers. If we miss on portal evaluations and don't keep those players, it leads to too much roster turnover AGAIN after we just had too much. I'm fine with paying the price once in return for a nice run with an old team, but we need to avoid doing it every year unless we're getting yet another deep run in return.

On the other hand, even if we lose out and manage to miss the tournament, I will still want to give Brad a shot at running it back and righting the ship next year with the pieces we can manage to keep along with a couple stars from the portal. (With the assistant coaching changes)
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Super Troopers Yes GIF by Searchlight Pictures
 
#471      
the juiceman cometh
I think the truth lies in the middle here. Brad has been highly successful and as disappointing as this season had been, it should not be enough to seriously consider a coaching change.

Also, there are issues that need to be addressed in collaboration between BU and JW, to optimize results going forward. If things don't change and results don't improve, we could very well be at a place where this angst is justified in a season or two.

The biggest takeaway is fan expectations are wild. I've been trying to think of what the football equivalent would be, and what I've come up with is Bielema winning 9+ games in each of the next 4 seasons and this board bringing out the pitchforks because he'd only gotten past the first round once. Sitting here in 2025 that is unimaginable. Just as I'm sure if you went back in time and showed BU's results to date to an Illini fan in 2017, they'd be giddy.
 
#472      
champaignpak
this season still has to play out and depending on tomi's recovery, KJ being smarter, and morez potentially returning for the btt we could be whole and organized in March. Brad still has many flaws which I worry about so I think once this season ends there should be a conversation.

But regardless we need tyler demoted and kwa or hamer out. I also think brad has to stop having epiphanies in feb its way too late for that now like realizing he should give PT to DGL. He again admitted on tuesday that Wisconsin being old was a big factor and he has also constantly highlighted the benefits of that. We need to get old again and stay that way long term. maybe add a euro lottery guy and an american lottery guy and maybe it works
 
#473      
Illini2010-11
the juiceman cometh said:
I think the truth lies in the middle here. Brad has been highly successful and as disappointing as this season had been, it should not be enough to seriously consider a coaching change.

Also, there are issues that need to be addressed in collaboration between BU and JW, to optimize results going forward. If things don't change and results don't improve, we could very well be at a place where this angst is justified in a season or two.

The biggest takeaway is fan expectations are wild. I've been trying to think of what the football equivalent would be, and what I've come up with is Bielema winning 9+ games in each of the next 4 seasons and this board bringing out the pitchforks because he'd only gotten past the first round once. Sitting here in 2025 that is unimaginable. Just as I'm sure if you went back in time and showed BU's results to date to an Illini fan in 2017, they'd be giddy.
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Maybe if football increased the number of teams in the playoff that would be somewhat equivalent. A statue would be built for Coach B if the team made the second round playoff bowl game (it would mean winning the conference championship game or a playoff game). So many teams can make the basketball tourney now, that it is reasonable to expect more than one second weekend trip over the last 5 years (assuming the team loses in first weekend again this year), especially given the talent for some of those teams.
 
#474      
the juiceman cometh
Illini2010-11 said:
Maybe if football increased the number of teams in the playoff that would be somewhat equivalent. A statue would be built for Coach B if the team made the second round playoff bowl game (it would mean winning the conference championship game or a playoff game).
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Second round is when there are 8 teams left. BU has done that.

BU has also won the conference championship game twice.
 
#475      
IlliniBrave75
We continue to hear this on the football coaching carousel thread...it's a good thing when teams are trying to poach coaches from your staff! Remember 2021 when we lost Orlando Antigua, Chin Coleman, and Stephen Gentry in the same season (back when you were only allowed 3 assistants). We replaced them with Tim Anderson, Geoff Alexander, and Chester Frazier. Those where both really solid staffs!

NCAA has allowed staffs to be expanded, but I feel like we had a better staff with three than we have now with 5! Who is looking to poach any of our assistants (maybe Antigua)?
 
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