This NFL veteran (who knows the game and has a direct pipeline into the Illini locker room) is saying that in a non-COVID year, we’d have been no worse than 7 - 4 headed to NW: the 3 non-con wins, plus Purdue and Minny. Wonder if that would have stopped the Lovie haters.
1. IF we were 7-4 going into the NW game, we wouldn’t be firing Lovie, but we would be a bit concerned whether Lovie’s best team (and what he’s been building to for 5 years) could get more than 7 wins. 8 was the minimum goal for the “breakthrough” year. 7 he would have been safe and 6 probably kept his job but we wouldn’t be satisfied.
2. However, in that alternate reality there is no guarantee we beat Purdue and Minny. Peters has been pulled from Wisky and Iowa this season in an effort to find a spark so even having him in those games doesn’t mean he would have been consistently “on”. Purdue was gashing us for huge yards with their walk-on QB and Minny absolutely ran over us. I honestly don’t think Peters changes either outcome.
3. If we want to play the what-if game,
I’ll submit that Rutgers would not have been a guaranteed win either. Our run heavy offense was just enough to win, but who knows what happens in a world where we run less and pass more? I’d like to think we still win but you can’t automatically switch Purdue and Minny to wins without considering the idea that Rutgers and Nebraska may have been losses.
4. Tone down the “Lovie Haters” comments. Considering how the games have gone so far, we’d probably be 6-5 and looking at 6-6 in Lovie’s BEST year. (And possibly not even that good) Still getting blasted by Iowa and Minny at home while staying at the bottom of the B1G West cannot, in any way, be considered a successful rebuild. Even historical rebuilds that have eventually failed (Colorado recently, Zook and Turner here, Babers at Syracuse) had at least one very successful season. So if this were a non-COVID year, we’d be peaking at 6-ish wins and would still have not beaten NW in his tenure (I’m predicting a loss this week).
5. Most people desperately WANTED Lovie to succeed because they wanted Illinois to be good. Nobody I’ve seen had a personal vendetta against him and wanted to see him fail. But the inconsistent play, poor recruiting, and porous defense (which Lovie OWNS) has lost the fan base. And a 2-7 COVID or 5-7 normal season aren’t going to solve that. (Obviously I’m predicting us to lose the last 2 games)