Conference Realignment

Saturdaze said:

A few primetime ND B1G games per year will likely be worth more to NBC than seven 3pm ACC games playing opposite one of the top B1G games of the week. I can only see NBC offering significantly less than what’s in the B1G contract already.

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By all accounts, that's a given, and ND is on record that they're ok with that.

Who knows what the network landscape will look like in 3-5 years. ND's contract w/ NBC runs thru the 2025 season. While I'm sure ND would prefer to stay with NBC, ND can certainly take it's product to market and see what else is out there.

Oh how I'd love to see ND join the B1G if for no other reason than to play Illinois, in Champaign. It'd be the hottest ticket since _________.

But, that ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

spotter said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1563963298403725313

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What does this have to do with conference realignment?

Not sure where he's getting the tOSU veto information, but....

spotter said:

Not sure where he's getting the tOSU veto information, but....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564657389084717058

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Those replies make believe we need an annual non-con PAC12 vs BIG12 Challenge: The battle for 3rd place has never been this exciting!

Saturdaze said:

Those replies make believe we need an annual non-con PAC12 vs BIG12 Challenge: The battle for 3rd place has never been this exciting!

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Rose Bowl most years is enough for me.

no surprise:
Will Warren put the big squeeze on? (no games w/ND until they join). (Completely understand that schedule changes take time). Would that be enough of a catalyst to get ND to jump? Not sure, but kinda doubt it.

The nuclear button is locking them out of the playoffs. Obviously, we're not there yet.

spotter said:

Not sure where he's getting the tOSU veto information, but....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564657389084717058

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You gotta remember that Jon Wilner's audience is message board denizens like us for Pac 12 schools. He's sweating hard trying to make a juicy long-running saga of what has become a non-story.

Some sort of Pac 12/Big 12 merger was discussed and rejected because the money wasn't there from the networks. Further B1G expansion on the west coast was discussed and rejected because the money wasn't there from the networks. The big story is over, now it's just the little stories to tidy things up, starting with which side of the Fox/ESPN war the Pac 12 will team with (both sides, if they're smart).

Joel Goodson said:

Will Warren put the big squeeze on? (no games w/ND until they join).

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Warren is not an actor in this drama, let's be clear, and once again this is trying to squeeze more drama out of something that has already been decided.

NBC is the party that can put a squeeze on, but they're quite happy with where they've landed in all of this. Warren and the B1G are just puppets on a string of their network partners now, rejecting high-value inventory like games against ND is something that would have been clearly kiboshed in finalizing their megabucks new deal.

It continues to be weird to me the way so many people are pining for some even grander denouement to this saga. I get where it's coming from, the place it's left the sport is both untidy and ugly, and people have become fans of their conference like it's the Marvel Cinematic Universe or something, this quasi rooting-for-corporate-balance-sheet relationship. But the war is over and the Big Ten won. Thank the heavens that it's time to get back to the actual games.

Yeah, this story has pretty much run its course. Basically waiting to see if the ACC can hang on for dear life until 2036, and see if the Big 12 can poach any more from the PAC 12.

ChiefGritty said:

You gotta remember that Jon Wilner's audience is message board denizens like us for Pac 12 schools. He's sweating hard trying to make a juicy long-running saga of what has become a non-story.

Some sort of Pac 12/Big 12 merger was discussed and rejected because the money wasn't there from the networks. Further B1G expansion on the west coast was discussed and rejected because the money wasn't there from the networks. The big story is over, now it's just the little stories to tidy things up, starting with which side of the Fox/ESPN war the Pac 12 will team with (both sides, if they're smart).


Warren is not an actor in this drama, let's be clear, and once again this is trying to squeeze more drama out of something that has already been decided.

NBC is the party that can put a squeeze on, but they're quite happy with where they've landed in all of this. Warren and the B1G are just puppets on a string of their network partners now, rejecting high-value inventory like games against ND is something that would have been clearly kiboshed in finalizing their megabucks new deal.

It continues to be weird to me the way so many people are pining for some even grander denouement to this saga. I get where it's coming from, the place it's left the sport is both untidy and ugly, and people have become fans of their conference like it's the Marvel Cinematic Universe or something, this quasi rooting-for-corporate-balance-sheet relationship. But the war is over and the Big Ten won. Thank the heavens that it's time to get back to the actual games.

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I think both main points you've addressed aren't nearly as clear cut as you've stated.

ChiefGritty said:

NBC is the party that can put a squeeze on, but they're quite happy with where they've landed in all of this.

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I would say this differently, NBC is indeed happy with having ND at a below current market deal until 2025. I think the NBC option would be to buy off ND with more money, more so than squeeze them...but no incentive to do that when they already have them in a good for NBC contract.

In addition, it looks like NBC/ND rating have been mediocre & part of the blame is going to NBC having a limited College Football inventory which limits them to a niche player. The B1G has solved this by selling NBC enough inventory to fill the gaps...likely making ND more attractive to NBC when the next contract comes up. It just seems likely that between the non-football GOR with the ACC & the pledge to join the ACC in football if they join a conference, ND has left themselves in a position where sucking it up & living with the current deal until the next contract is their best financial path.

If and when Warren's revenue sharing plan comes to fruition, if ND starts "losing" an increasing share of recruits to BIG schools, that may be the tipping factor.

Joel Goodson said:

If and when Warren's revenue sharing plan comes to fruition, if ND starts "losing" an increasing share of recruits to BIG schools, that may be the tipping factor.

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It will certainly be an interesting change, coupled with NIL it will certainly impact recruiting; but I would expect it would play out more like ND, SEC, others are forced to match payouts to be competitive...so then it comes back to money the athletic department makes & TV contracts and if they can afford to be competitive...would think this just brings us back to how much money can ND get in next contract. long term we are headed to the financial haves & have nots & this just raises the the stakes on what the $ differential means. The ACC is the conference that is really in the hole with the long term GOR & the weak & long TV deal. ND will have options, but they have to be analyzing the risk to being behind the B1G in $ and how that may slowly erode their football brand. It would be interesting if they would do the ACC deal today, that was sort of an all in on staying independent. I think the more interesting story is what happens to Clemson, Florida State, and the rest of the ACC. They seem to have locked themselves into along term bad deal...the revenue sharing should scare the heck out of Clemson & it is not clear to me that either the B1G or SEC would take them today...add 10 years + of uncompetitive levels of budgets and the whole ACC could be heading to be doubling down on being just a basketball conference.

spotter said:

Yeah, this story has pretty much run its course. Basically waiting to see if the ACC can hang on for dear life until 2036, and see if the Big 12 can poach any more from the PAC 12.

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I don’t think we’re going to see anyone from the PAC #TBD join the Big-ish 12. I think the networks are going to be too interested in keeping both conferences afloat for the time being.

Except for the PAC #TBD adding a few schools like San Diego St and UNLV and whatever downstream effects that has on MWC/CUSA/AAC shuffling around, I think we’ve reached an equilibrium at the top.

However, I don’t think there’s any way the ACC lasts until the GOR agreement expires. Give it 5 years maybe, but each year, as the millions pile up for the Big 10 and SEC, and the cost of leaving goes down for the ACC schools, there’s going to be a tipping point where it doesn’t make sense to stay any more.

And when the first school goes, it’s going to be a mad scramble. Again, nobody wants to be the Kansas or Oregon of the ACC.

champaignchris said:

However, I don’t think there’s any way the ACC lasts until the GOR agreement expires. Give it 5 years maybe, but each year, as the millions pile up for the Big 10 and SEC, and the cost of leaving goes down for the ACC schools, there’s going to be a tipping point where it doesn’t make sense to stay any more.

And when the first school goes, it’s going to be a mad scramble. Again, nobody wants to be the Kansas or Oregon of the ACC.

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The problem is the ACC pecking order is mostly set, isn't likely to change much, and the schools at the bottom that see no home will be trying to hold the ACC together because as bad as the ACC deal is they see even a worse scenario if it falls apart. So far it sounds like the GOR is pretty solid deterrent that will keep the league together. I think it takes the media deal getting dated & bad enough where the bottom of the conference could give away the prize schools and still feel like they would come out ahead in a new conference of leftovers...I think we are a long way from being there.

Would Clemson/Florida State/Miami or any other team in the ACC take a deal today with the B1G or SEC in a heartbeat to avoid the current deal running until 2036...absolutely. But for the B1G/SEC this is a money grab & with no TV rights it just doesn't make any sense for them to go into their pockets to throw an ACC school a life rope & we are talking a huge gap for roughly 13 years that would be totally charity. I don't see either the B1G or SEC biting on that, they can wait until the GOR is up or the league blows up.

Personally, I have a hard time seeing how any ACC football program survives as a serious contender by the end of the GOR, if the B1G implements some sort of revenue share the problem gets even bigger for the ACC. How many top recruits does Clemson get if they can go to Alabama or even South Carolina and get paid even something nominal like 10k/yr. Then the Clemson product goes down & they lose their charm as a contender, which further takes a bite out of recruiting...seems like a degenerative cycle that plays out badly for all the ACC if they can't make up the gap with NIL or other means. Maybe best case Clemson and someone else survive if they can figure out how to at least partially subsidize their programs outside of the tier 1 media deals and it becomes a conference like the old big 8 where it seemed like Nebraska/Oklahoma used to brutalize everyone else in the conference and then play each other the last game of the year to see who had a bid to the orange bowl and fair chance of playing for the national title, but that doesn't sound like a valuable future TV deal, so the easy path to a playoff berth needs to resonate.

Greensboro said:

Personally, I have a hard time seeing how any ACC football program survives as a serious contender by the end of the GOR, if the B1G implements some sort of revenue share the problem gets even bigger for the ACC. How many top recruits does Clemson get if they can go to Alabama or even South Carolina and get paid even something nominal like 10k/yr.

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Well, the ACC could pay something nominal too. But the potential for a bidding war on players that ends in a situation where Clemson can't pay what Illinois can is an interesting spot along the far horizon. Getting way way way ahead of ourselves in a number of ways, I'll buy this revenue sharing chatter not one second before I see it, but that's the appeal in theory.