Conference Realignment

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#501      
WeWillWhen
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I agree with the spirit of what you are saying, but I want to throw out one nitpick. Average viewers can be a little deceiving over a short timeframe. For example, Indiana had very good TV ratings in 2020 because they were surprisingly good, and they played Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, didn't play any cupcakes and played on ABC or FOX for HALF of their games. Fast forward to 2022, and their ratings (even with Michigan, OSU and PSU on the schedule) kind of sucked because they played on BTN and FS1 a lot more. Of course, the teams with the most viewers are theoretically on the big-time channels BECAUSE they deliver ratings and don't get the ratings as a favor from that broadcast slot, but Illinois drew very good ratings whenever we got the chance to play on a big-time channel like ABC or FOX or ESPN. Conversely, Penn State did not draw much better than us for their games on BTN.

What I am trying to say is that "average viewers" over a short timespan will correctly capture that Michigan and Alabama are ratings darlings, and it will likely capture that not a lot of people tune in to watch Northwestern or Vanderbilt, regardless. However, schools like Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, etc. will be at the mercy of when they're playing. Our ratings were MUCH better last year than the year before, and it's because we got some great opportunities to play on national TV. FOX, ABC and CBS get great ratings almost no matter what ... sure, it's way better when it's OSU/Michigan, but we already knew that. You cannot watch Illinois play Purdue on BTN and watch Wisconsin play Purdue on FOX and assume Wisconsin has more fans based on those ratings, for example.

Here's to hoping the Illini get plenty of chances to be seen by a national audience this year! The chance to play PSU on FOX for Big Noon Kickoff is massive, and getting a night game audience on NBC for Purdue is great, as well. Not sure how ESPN2 would draw on a Friday night for the Kansas game, but maybe better than we think.
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I agree with your premise.

But there are somewhere in the range of 15-20 teams that have built up brand equity over decades, which I just do not think will dissipate quickly. I feel that these schools will almost always draw viewers on whichever channel they are broadcast. The SEC and B1G now have most of them: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Michigan, tOSU, Penn St., Nebraska, USC, Wisky, . . . and then Notre Dame, Clemson, and maybe Florida State, Miami and TAMU.

There is another roughly two dozen additional teams whose games can draw big numbers (a) in years that they are competitive, and (b) when shown on an over-the-air network. I think this group includes pretty much every SEC and B1G team not named Indiana, Rutgers, Northwestern, Vandy, Kentucky and Miznoz.
 
#502      
Battle89
redwingillini11 said:
If the B1G and SEC end up at 20-24 teams each, I have to wonder whether we will end up with a two-tier relegation system, and a four-team conference playoff. Maybe top 3 schools in Tier 1 and top school in Tier 2 play in the playoff for the conference championship?

Hypothetical two-tier B1G with 24 teams (Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech added (I have no idea where we stand with the west coast schools now)) with the teams split by 2023 ESPN FPI just to see what this could look like:

B1G Leaders Tier (Tier 1)


B1G Legends Tier (Tier 2)
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Fun discussion but please come up with different names for those tiers! I think the West Coast teams are out for all the money reasons discussed before, but if your scenario happened I would hope that any new joiners would be required to start in Tier 2. Agree that over the long haul relegation probably moves those teams closer to what you have here.
 
#506      
Mr. Tibbs
Pikeillinifan said:
I bet that is going to be a disaster.

What are the guesses, maybe $15-18M annually per school now, if that?
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sounds about right

no way is B1G taking any new members this summer unless ND is part of it .

I can’t see any other ACC school leaving that league anytime soon , with the legal & financial issues
 
#508      
IlliniwekKDR
ateske2 said:
Ive heard $20-22m per school. Almost all streaming on Apple.
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That's rough, especially on a platform that not many people are going to see. Right now Hulu has about double the amount of subscribers. The world isn't quite ready for games to go off of network/cable TV in my opinion, but at least Hulu could've gotten them more viewers if they could've gotten on something like that.
 
#509      
Epsilon
ateske2 said:
Ive heard $20-22m per school. Almost all streaming on Apple.
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CBS is reporting that they looked to Amazon, Apple and the CW. WTAF?

Both my kids are going to U of O next year, so I’m an adopted Ducks fan, and this is killing me inside. A while back some state legislators were talking about making it a requirement (by law) that both state schools stay in the same league (probably Oregon State grads). But nobody is taking Oregon State. I wouldn’t mind U of O going to the B1G - could be a fun family rivalry, but I can’t imagine the U of O board of trustees (or Phil Knight) would be happy with that kind of relegation.

 
#510      
MoCoMdIllini
redwingillini11 said:
If the B1G and SEC end up at 20-24 teams each, I have to wonder whether we will end up with a two-tier relegation system, and a four-team conference playoff. Maybe top 3 schools in Tier 1 and top school in Tier 2 play in the playoff for the conference championship?

Hypothetical two-tier B1G with 24 teams (Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech added (I have no idea where we stand with the west coast schools now)) with the teams split by 2023 ESPN FPI just to see what this could look like:

B1G Leaders Tier (Tier 1)
Ohio State
Michigan
USC
Clemson
Penn State
Oregon
Florida State
Wisconsin
Washington
Miami
Michigan State
Minnesota

B1G Legends Tier (Tier 2)
Iowa
UCLA
Maryland
Illinois
Purdue
Nebraska
Georgia Tech
Northwestern
Indiana
Rutgers
Stanford
Cal

As long as we can't get relegated out of the B1G, maybe this is ok? Conference rivals could get split up, but at least (if you are one of the power brokers) you can get a super league while still keeping the idea of the B1G intact.
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That's potentially more than 1/3 the current FBS in 2 conferences.
 
#511      
AutoPoster 3000
IlliniwekKDR said:
That's rough, especially on a platform that not many people are going to see. Right now Hulu has about double the amount of subscribers. The world isn't quite ready for games to go off of network/cable TV in my opinion, but at least Hulu could've gotten them more viewers if they could've gotten on something like that.
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I think I’m rrrrrrrrrrr eady to startffff


atching games on streaming viddddddddddddddddddddddddd

1690849908271.png
 
#512      
Epsilon
Epsilon said:
CBS is reporting that they looked to Amazon, Apple and the CW. WTAF?

Both my kids are going to U of O next year, so I’m an adopted Ducks fan, and this is killing me inside. A while back some state legislators were talking about making it a requirement (by law) that both state schools stay in the same league (probably Oregon State grads). But nobody is taking Oregon State. I wouldn’t mind U of O going to the B1G - could be a fun family rivalry, but I can’t imagine the U of O board of trustees (or Phil Knight) would be happy with that kind of relegation.

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Looks like I missed my window to edit but just to clarify the relegation I was referring to was not about moving to B1G but rather having a media deal with a low tier outlet.
 
#513      
ChiefGritty
IlliniwekKDR said:
That's rough, especially on a platform that not many people are going to see.
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Less money and less visibility is not a happy combo.

And this goes back to what I said before about contingencies. The B12 and P12 are both hopeless rump conferences. Either one of them might have gotten the Last Deal ESPN Can Afford if the circumstances had been slightly different. The market turned at an inconvenient moment.
 
#514      
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Epsilon said:
CBS is reporting that they looked to Amazon, Apple and the CW. WTAF?
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The CW isn't as ridiculous as you might think as they're starting to make some inroads in sports broadcasting. They aired the LIV Tour this season. They've recently agreed to air the ACC regional basketball and football games this season. It was announced last month that they'll be the home for Inside the NFL this season. And it was announced on Friday that the NASCAR Xfinity Series will air on the CW in 2025 with the network every race of the season as well as practice and qualifying.
 
#515      
TentakilRex
ateske2 said:
Ive heard $20-22m per school. Almost all streaming on Apple.
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Let me guess, MHver? He was once called by Blue and Gold Dude (RIP) his favorite conspiracy theorist :) Then again he has proven more accurate than Altimore (total jerk on Twitter), Genetics56 (who I learned from this board), Canzano (or Clownzano to Ducks fans), and Mandel....


Take with a grain of salt, we will know the truth soon lol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686151544218038272

Bonus tweet, could be CFB 80%, could be the White Sox though too

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686207483944034304
 
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#516      
Navy_illini
www.yahoo.com

There are already complications with the new-look Big Ten and travel

There are already complications with the new-look Big Ten and travel
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

It will be interesting how scheduling works. LA to DC is a long flight. I could see it where we play away at UCLA followed by USC same week in basketball baseball volleyball. Interested in seeing if every sport from USC/UCLA transitions to the Big Ten. Their water polo and beach volleyball teams probably won’t since the Big Ten doesn’t have that

If the Big Ten added 2 other schools located in the west it would help USC and UCLA from a travel perspective but wouldn’t help the rest of the conference in these travel concerns
 
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