Conference Realignment

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#376      

Illini92and96

Austin, TX
If this mega conference happens with that few team spots, they’ll take the opportunity to shuffle out and replace the existing lower value teams with more additive options that would otherwise be left out. I think the Illini would struggle to be more attractive than programs like Colorado, Utah, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Arizona, Texas Tech, WVU, and Baylor. There are more B12/ACC programs that have better ratings than us, and also add Kansas and Duke to that list of schools if this theoretical structure also includes basketball.

I think we’re more likely to come along in a theoretical merger if the target school count is larger, but I think realistically it makes more sense for the 32 most elite programs from across the full cfb landscape to just split off and leave schools like us behind.
The question is what does it take to vote someone out? So far this has only been about adds. It seems multiple times more emotionally and politically challenging to get rid of long time members in the big or sec. Could the core bloc of big schools veto a founding school being kicked out If they we’re united and made a stink? Seems like it, but it depends on the rules.
 
#377      
My thinking for a while has been an SEC-Big Ten merger just like the AFL-NFL merger. And FSU wanting to join makes perfect sense in this context. I'd say take it to 40 schools, anything else is dilutive, so probably add FSU, Clemson, NC, ND, Miami, +1 west coast school TBD. Mirror the 8 divisions and schedule format of the NFL as best you can, and take the playoff to 24 teams. No reason for bowl games anymore since they don't seem to matter with so many players opting out for NFL or transfer reasons.
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#378      
I imagine that it starts with FOX saying, “ya know, you all could make more $ if you replace x school with y school”. That could’ve been happening throughout all this expansion but it hasn’t so I’m not convinced it will happen. Hopefully we’re at least a couple decades out before it does for Illinois’ sake!
 
#379      
I imagine that it starts with FOX saying, “ya know, you all could make more $ if you replace x school with y school”. That could’ve been happening throughout all this expansion but it hasn’t so I’m not convinced it will happen. Hopefully we’re at least a couple decades out before it does for Illinois’ sake!
And by then I might be gone anyway. I know, it sounds selfish but I’ve learned not to care about stuff beyond my control.

Those in college sports who grasp for more money must live with the outcome, including jaded fans. At that point I’d just shift my attention to the NFL and ignore the minor leagues.
 
#382      

Mr. Tibbs

southeast DuPage
signing under duress might work for an uneducated 22 year old, not so much for a University with white shoe firms on retainer for $5,000 per hour
 
#384      
FSU gave the ACC their media rights and the ACC sold them to ESPN. I still see no reason that the ACC or ESPN have to break the agreement since it is largely beneficial to both of them. I start with the baseline that FSU is profitable for ESPN currently, so ESPN has no incentive to lose them to FOX, or to pay them more to go to the SEC. Also, I would think that the ACC and ESPN would demand a break-up fee that is larger than what the market value of FSU is, meaning that ESPN would want more money in return to break the contract than what FOX, their competitor, would pay. In this case, it is FSU taking less money just to leave the ACC.
I do understand that the boosters could fund the $100's of millions to break out from this deal, but if money is the problem with the ACC media deal, then just take this booster money and dump it into NIL instead of paying out ESPN.
 
#386      
FSU gave the ACC their media rights and the ACC sold them to ESPN. I still see no reason that the ACC or ESPN have to break the agreement since it is largely beneficial to both of them. I start with the baseline that FSU is profitable for ESPN currently, so ESPN has no incentive to lose them to FOX, or to pay them more to go to the SEC. Also, I would think that the ACC and ESPN would demand a break-up fee that is larger than what the market value of FSU is, meaning that ESPN would want more money in return to break the contract than what FOX, their competitor, would pay. In this case, it is FSU taking less money just to leave the ACC.
I do understand that the boosters could fund the $100's of millions to break out from this deal, but if money is the problem with the ACC media deal, then just take this booster money and dump it into NIL instead of paying out ESPN.
So, what happens if FSU leaves the ACC but does not buy out the grant of rights deal? Would revenue from FSU home games flow from ESPN to the ACC and then be distributed among all members schools subject to the GOR including FSU? Is the GOR a separate agreement from ACC membership? If so, its interesting to think what is considered a 'home' game? Could FSU shift some of its biggest games (say, if in the Big Ten vs Ohio State) to a supposed neutral site like Jacksonville and have them televised by Fox?
 
#387      
My very, very brief look at the FSU lawsuit makes me think it will at least not get laughed out of court. Alleging a breach of fiduciary duty, with the conference acting as agent for the schools in negotiating media rights, at least gets into factual issues, which at minimum gets the parties into the discovery process.

If FSU survives a Motion to Dismiss, the parties will pretty much have to go to the negotiating table to avoid years and hundreds of millions of dollars of litigation.
 
#388      
So, what happens if FSU leaves the ACC but does not buy out the grant of rights deal? Would revenue from FSU home games flow from ESPN to the ACC and then be distributed among all members schools subject to the GOR including FSU? Is the GOR a separate agreement from ACC membership? If so, its interesting to think what is considered a 'home' game? Could FSU shift some of its biggest games (say, if in the Big Ten vs Ohio State) to a supposed neutral site like Jacksonville and have them televised by Fox?
There is an NCAA FBS rule that requires all teams to have a minimum 5 home games. So there isn't a current workaround to go all away and neutral site games. If FSU were to play in the Jaguars stadium for example, that would be considered their home stadium for the year. If FSU walks away from the ACC, the media rights for those 5 games stays with the ACC. In this case, the ACC takes in the same amount of money from ESPN but divides the money by 1 less team since FSU is out. FSU's share is evenly distributed amongst the remaining ACC teams. FSU with this restriction has no way to be a net benefit to another conferences media deal.
There is also the basketball and NCAA tourney media payouts, which while smaller, are still several million dollars a year to walk away from and be distributed to the remaining ACC teams.
 
#389      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
regardless of the braying, wailing and $1000/hr lawyers, FSU is well and truly hosed
 
#390      
regardless of the braying, wailing and $1000/hr lawyers, FSU is well and truly hosed

In what way? One way or another, they’re going to have a home in a power conference. The same won’t necessarily be said for, say, Wake Forest or Boston College.

If FSU’s suit gets laughed out of court, they’ll keep on as they’re going as the biggest dog in the ACC. If not, the ACC will likely have to come to the bargaining table, and FSU will be able to get out of the conference for something less than the true cost of the grant of rights.

FSU has nothing to lose but some attorney’s fees. It’s the ACC that’s teetering on the brink of extinction.
 
#391      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
In what way? One way or another, they’re going to have a home in a power conference. The same won’t necessarily be said for, say, Wake Forest or Boston College.

If FSU’s suit gets laughed out of court, they’ll keep on as they’re going as the biggest dog in the ACC. If not, the ACC will likely have to come to the bargaining table, and FSU will be able to get out of the conference for something less than the true cost of the grant of rights.

FSU has nothing to lose but some attorney’s fees. It’s the ACC that’s teetering on the brink of extinction.

~$35M/per v ~$100M/per x 10 years = a lot of flippin' cheddar

gonna be progressively harder to compete. being the big dog of the ACC is gonna be like the world's tallest midget.
 
#394      
regardless of the braying, wailing and $1000/hr lawyers, FSU is well and truly hosed
Who in their right mind signs a 20 year deal? What were they thinking? I suppose the lesser ACC teams probably jumped at it. FSU, Clemson, and UNC have to be kicking themselves.
 
#395      
Who in their right mind signs a 20 year deal? What were they thinking? I suppose the lesser ACC teams probably jumped at it. FSU, Clemson, and UNC have to be kicking themselves.
At the time is was seen as like this unheard of mega deal that would lock in your wealth for so many years. It was the first big media deal. 20 years was incredibly stupid.
 
#396      
Who in their right mind signs a 20 year deal? What were they thinking? I suppose the lesser ACC teams probably jumped at it. FSU, Clemson, and UNC have to be kicking themselves.
Seems insane now, but wasn't there a lot of concern media deals would plummet with the shift to streaming and fragmentation? I thought people seemed happy with the long term security at the time. Then again, it seems every record breaking or just smart/sound/secure deal seems to get dwarfed in the near term these days.
 
#398      

TentakilRex

Land O Insects between Quincy-Macomb-Jacksonville
Remember, if Florida State thinks that ESPN wanting Alabama (of ESPN's bell cow conference SEC) instead of them in playoff influenced the committee at all, that is a massive tiebreaker.


Plus I can arrange a 20 team into five convenient four team pods with FSU and Notre Dame. (I can do this for other additions)

Pods:

Atlantic- FSU, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers
Pacific- Oregon, UCLA, USC, Washington
(the other are more flexible, I could rearrange it)
"Old West"- Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern
North- Michigan, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
"Old East"- Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue

Schedule TBD (but I have a couple of scenarios). By the way, this will be more useful in nonrevenue sports.

I also toyed with Original Ten vs Newbie 10, but we need a different team than Notre Dame not to screw over Nebraska.
 
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