Cubs 2023 Season

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#226      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
I used to watch them when I lived in Illinois, just to check in on how the young players were doing. Don't get preseason games in Texas.
 
#228      
Sounds like Wesneski has nailed down the #5 starter slot. Which is exciting.

Thompson is having velocity issues. Sounds like it’s a lower body rhythm thing and not an arm issue. He’ll be starting out in Iowa.

But the Cubs seem genuinely excited about Assad taking over that swingman role. He was hitting 97 for Mexico in the WBC. He could be quite a weapon out of the pen and occasional starts.

All the prediction models seem to hate the Cubs pitching, but I’m pretty damn excited to see some of these kids.
 
#229      

KBLEE

Montgomery, IL
Sounds like Wesneski has nailed down the #5 starter slot. Which is exciting.

Thompson is having velocity issues. Sounds like it’s a lower body rhythm thing and not an arm issue. He’ll be starting out in Iowa.

But the Cubs seem genuinely excited about Assad taking over that swingman role. He was hitting 97 for Mexico in the WBC. He could be quite a weapon out of the pen and occasional starts.

All the prediction models seem to hate the Cubs pitching, but I’m pretty damn excited to see some of these kids.

Wonder where this leaves Sampson. He's had a good spring as well and pitched well last season. Seems a bit of a waste to throw him in a middle relief role.
 
#230      

KBLEE

Montgomery, IL
Hendricks is also expected to be ready by early May, so someone is gonna get the boot when he returns. My guess is that it will be Smyly.
 
#231      
Wonder where this leaves Sampson. He's had a good spring as well and pitched well last season. Seems a bit of a waste to throw him in a middle relief role.
He had a good outing on Saturday, but he's been brutal this spring. 9.95 ERA. and surrendered 8 HR in 12.2 innings.

He says it was a mechanical issue that he's been working out. He still has options, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him start the season at AAA. We're going to need him at some point.
 
#232      
Hendricks is also expected to be ready by early May, so someone is gonna get the boot when he returns. My guess is that it will be Smyly.
I guess it depends on what Hendricks we get back. Smyly has been better than Kyle the last two seasons. Last year by a wide margin.

Kyle is in his last guaranteed year, with a club option for 16 million next season. Unless we see him bounce back to his pre 2021 form, it won't be picked up.

The Cubs can walk away from both guys after this season if they choose. If Assad's arrow keeps pointing up, that's probably what will happen. I tend to think both guys will be available in trades if they pitch reasonably well.
 
#233      
Hoyer’s strategy has been to get positional redundancy to ensure a relatively stable floor. Hendricks hurt, Thompson and Samson not performing in Arizona? Slot Wesnesky and Assad right in there.

It’s why he got both Mancini and Hosmer. It’s why he got Rios to be Wisdom’s left-handed mirror. It’s why he got two functionally identical utility men in McKinstry and Mastrobuoni. It’s why he does the “sign 9 bargain bin relievers” thing every year.

It’s the throw enough spaghetti at the wall, eventually something is bound to stick strategy.

The question is where the upside comes from? Who raises the ceiling once you have the stable floor? I don’t think the 3 or 4 guys like that a World Series roster needs are on the roster right now, nor in the upper minors.

There are a few nice free agents next year - Matt Chapman and Julio Urias to name 2 that would slot into the Cubs’ needs nicely…

But we all know who the only real difference maker in next year’s free agent class is. We just don’t know if the Cubs ownership will be willing to pay the approximately half billion dollars (not exaggerating) it will take to sign him. It’s going to be an absolute frenzy.
 
#234      
Hoyer’s strategy has been to get positional redundancy to ensure a relatively stable floor. Hendricks hurt, Thompson and Samson not performing in Arizona? Slot Wesnesky and Assad right in there.

It’s why he got both Mancini and Hosmer. It’s why he got Rios to be Wisdom’s left-handed mirror. It’s why he got two functionally identical utility men in McKinstry and Mastrobuoni. It’s why he does the “sign 9 bargain bin relievers” thing every year.

It’s the throw enough spaghetti at the wall, eventually something is bound to stick strategy.

The question is where the upside comes from? Who raises the ceiling once you have the stable floor? I don’t think the 3 or 4 guys like that a World Series roster needs are on the roster right now, nor in the upper minors.

There are a few nice free agents next year - Matt Chapman and Julio Urias to name 2 that would slot into the Cubs’ needs nicely…

But we all know who the only real difference maker in next year’s free agent class is. We just don’t know if the Cubs ownership will be willing to pay the approximately half billion dollars (not exaggerating) it will take to sign him. It’s going to be an absolute frenzy.

Think about LAA... Ohtani is paired with Trout, arguably the two best baseball players in the world, and they can't seem to make the playoffs. They paid a fortune to get Anthony Rendon there a few years ago, and he has played one season worth of baseball in the last 3 seasons.

They have tried and tried to compete by having great players and it keeps not working, mostly because the rest of the roster just isn't very good.

Are you better off building depth and being above average at every position, or paying massive amounts to get a few of the best players in the world?

In a sport where you can't guarantee your best player will be in a position to help you in the biggest moment, I think it's prudent to build the roster in the way Jed has. Once you are solid everywhere, you can try to add greatness.

Hopefully, one of these young guys has it in them already.
 
#235      
Think about LAA... Ohtani is paired with Trout, arguably the two best baseball players in the world, and they can't seem to make the playoffs. They paid a fortune to get Anthony Rendon there a few years ago, and he has played one season worth of baseball in the last 3 seasons.

They have tried and tried to compete by having great players and it keeps not working, mostly because the rest of the roster just isn't very good.

Are you better off building depth and being above average at every position, or paying massive amounts to get a few of the best players in the world?

In a sport where you can't guarantee your best player will be in a position to help you in the biggest moment, I think it's prudent to build the roster in the way Jed has. Once you are solid everywhere, you can try to add greatness.

Hopefully, one of these young guys has it in them already.
LAA actually had pretty decent starting pitching last year. It was just that the other position players around Ohtani and Trout Were. So. Bad. Trout and Ohtani combined for a 9.7 bWAR. Taylor Ward was a very solid 3.7. The entire rest of the team COMBINED to post a -1.4 bWAR. That's how a team with Ohtani and Trout somehow managed to be 13th of 15 (?!?!?!) in the AL in runs scored. Last year's Cubs, with all the holes in the lineup, with nobody even remotely close to Mike Trout in offensive capabilities, actually outscored last year's Angels by 34 runs.

And this entirely goes to your point. We saw first hand with several of the post-WS Cubs teams that it really only takes one or two black holes in the lineup to give decent pitchers a chance to pitch around the good players, get their outs elsewhere, and make the entire offense look ineffectual. Greg Maddux used to talk about how he'd look at the lineup before the game and figure out ahead of time where he was going to get his 27 outs. When you've got, for example, three minor league hitters in your lineup, well, there's 9 or 10 of the 27 outs you need to get right there.

Cubs had about 1200-1300 of their approximately 6000 plate appearances last year by guys with a sub-80 OPS+. That shouldn't happen this year.
 
#239      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I haven't followed the Cubs very closely since 2018 or so but I'm always happy to see Hoerner still with the club. Saw him play a number of times out at Stanford, probably fist-bumped with him after an anthem or two - and he seems like a fun guy to watch especially on the defensive side!
Awesome shortstop. I'm interested to see how he performs at 2nd this year.

The extension feels like a "just to shut people up that we can't ever sign any players to extensions" move more than anything, but every little bit helps.
 
#240      
Awesome shortstop. I'm interested to see how he performs at 2nd this year.

The extension feels like a "just to shut people up that we can't ever sign any players to extensions" move more than anything, but every little bit helps.

He projects to be a very good, maybe elite, defensive 2nd baseman. The only real knock on his defense has been his arm strength, which is far less an issue at 2B. And hopefully the less physically demanding position will help him to stay healthy.

3 year extension, but it doesn’t take effect until next year. So the Cubs have him for 4 more years. He’ll be 29 when he hits free agency. I’m fine with the Cubs not being on the hook into his 30s for a middle infielder who’s had health problems.

Still, it adds a nice level of certainty. Hopefully that takes care of the persistent hole the Cubs have had at the top of their lineup since Fowler left for the foreseeable future. If he can be as healthy as Swanson has been over the next few years, they can start talking about another extension then.
 
#241      
In other news McKinstry was traded to the Tigers for a AA pitcher. Frees up a 40-man spot probably for Tauchman until Suzuki gets off the IL.

I’d rather see Morel in the Bigs, but if the plan is to regularly play Mancini in Right until Seiya gets back, I’d rather Morel be getting regular ABs in Iowa than sitting on the bench. Make sure Morel is ready to hop right in if the Cubs need him in CF or at 3B.
 
#242      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Think about LAA... Ohtani is paired with Trout, arguably the two best baseball players in the world, and they can't seem to make the playoffs. They paid a fortune to get Anthony Rendon there a few years ago, and he has played one season worth of baseball in the last 3 seasons.

They have tried and tried to compete by having great players and it keeps not working, mostly because the rest of the roster just isn't very good.

Are you better off building depth and being above average at every position, or paying massive amounts to get a few of the best players in the world?

In a sport where you can't guarantee your best player will be in a position to help you in the biggest moment, I think it's prudent to build the roster in the way Jed has. Once you are solid everywhere, you can try to add greatness.

Hopefully, one of these young guys has it in them already.
I much prefer the Dansby Swanson approach. We just need 3 or 4 more of him. Perhaps at 1B, 3B, OF, Pitcher --- with Bellinger and Happ potentially leaving after this season.
 
#246      
Good, now they can afford two cups or Ramen a day

I don’t understand MLB’s insistence on giving poverty level living conditions to their minor league players.

I’d think that if you provided them the basics of shelter, good nutrition, etc., your prospects might be able to thrive and develop better than your opponents’ prospects.

I’d be curious to see if those organizations known for developing talent go over and above the contractual minimums in compensating their minor leaguers.

ETA - spending $10k extra in housing and nutrition on every prospect in an organization would cost less than a single starting MLB player. It’s pocket change for these organizations, but could mean the world to some of these kids.
 
#247      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I don’t understand MLB’s insistence on giving poverty level living conditions to their minor league players.

I’d think that if you provided them the basics of shelter, good nutrition, etc., your prospects might be able to thrive and develop better than your opponents’ prospects.

I’d be curious to see if those organizations known for developing talent go over and above the contractual minimums in compensating their minor leaguers.

ETA - spending $10k extra in housing and nutrition on every prospect in an organization would cost less than a single starting MLB player. It’s pocket change for these organizations, but could mean the world to some of these kids.
And it's a better development environment for these players, some of whom the organization has bet precious resources on.

But twirling mustache, Gilded Age coal baron-grade attitudes on labor relations die hard among the MLB ownership class, that is the explanation.

Good for the players for unionizing. ✊
 
#248      

Illiniaaron

Geneseo, IL
I don’t understand MLB’s insistence on giving poverty level living conditions to their minor league players.

I’d think that if you provided them the basics of shelter, good nutrition, etc., your prospects might be able to thrive and develop better than your opponents’ prospects.

I’d be curious to see if those organizations known for developing talent go over and above the contractual minimums in compensating their minor leaguers.

ETA - spending $10k extra in housing and nutrition on every prospect in an organization would cost less than a single starting MLB player. It’s pocket change for these organizations, but could mean the world to some of these kids.
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