First Sunday win at home !!!
Cubs 2023 Season
- Status
Keep Bellinger at virtually all costs. Stroman can go. Don't understand why Mancini is there in the first place. Get Mervis up from Iowa to determine if he will be the first baseman of the future. Let Morel settle in at third base. Do something about the bullpen.
Any other decisions the Cubs need help with?
Any other decisions the Cubs need help with?
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
3 years/105M sound right, based on your first sentence?
I'm on the exact opposite end of the spectrum as you. Trade him before the deadline and get as much as you can for him. I say let someone else way overpay for Bellinger.
I'm with you on this. Load up on a Bellinger overpay.
I'm a Stroman fan, so it's hard for me to be unbiased. I'd love to see him extended.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
If I wasn't clear above, I meant getting as much as you can in a trade at the deadline then do not sign him as a free agent. I am all for letting someone else way overpay for him in free agency. I think we're on the same page but I wasn't sure how clear my comment was above.
Shane Walsh
aka "Captain Oblivious"
- Cynthiana, Kentucky
Put me firmly in the trade Bellie camp. His value will not get any higher than it is right now.
Yep; same page. That signing has gone about as perfectly as it could have in terms of trade value at the deadline. We'll see Crow-Armstrong in CF pretty soon (next season sometime).
This team is 5 games out of the playoffs and have been playing at a 96-win pace for more than a month. They have a legitimate shot to cut it to 4 or 3 out before the trade deadline.
I don’t see how they could possibly sell if that happens. From a PR standpoint alone, it would quickly become the Cubs’ version of the “White Flag Trade.”
It’s crazy that we’re 99 games into the season and still riding right along that buy/sell line. If the Cubs win 5 of their next 6, there’s no way they trade. If they lose 4 of their next 6, they probably sell. If they do something in between, it depends on what the other teams do. Whether they get to keep competing for a playoff spot literally comes down to their performance over the next week.
I don’t see how they could possibly sell if that happens. From a PR standpoint alone, it would quickly become the Cubs’ version of the “White Flag Trade.”
It’s crazy that we’re 99 games into the season and still riding right along that buy/sell line. If the Cubs win 5 of their next 6, there’s no way they trade. If they lose 4 of their next 6, they probably sell. If they do something in between, it depends on what the other teams do. Whether they get to keep competing for a playoff spot literally comes down to their performance over the next week.
And I think Bellinger will be looking for Brandon Nimmo (8 years/$160 million) or George Springer (6 years/$150 million) money.
I'm fine with re-signing either or both in the off-season. I'm not fine with gambling the opportunity to significantly improve the organizational depth in hopes of improving the odds of re-signing them in the off-season.
This team has a less than 15% chance of making the playoffs. They have virtually no chance of winning a WS, which should be the goal.
They must be dealt, or it will be an even longer climb back to relevancy.
To me, prospects are prospects until they prove it at the MLB level. I'm not going to say PCA or any prospect is an absolute lock to be a winning player. Prospects are strategic gambles. Some with much better odds than others. We need more high upside gambles to pay off if we are going to get back to playing for titles. Belli & Stro have a track record of being good to great players. If we're a match in the off-season, great. If someone like PCA were to pass a contractually locked in Belli, they could find a place for him to play. His ability to play anywhere in the OF, as well as 1B is a luxury. (We also have a DH, and no one who has claimed that spot daily.) If these guys really love playing in Chicago, there is nothing stopping them from negotiating with the Cubs in the off-season.
Trade them. See who steps up once some of the veterans are gone. Re-assess this winter.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
Pass on that. I could stomach 3/80-90 but barely.
Lol what? This team lacks star power. The cubs are the 3rd most valuable team and charge the 2nd highest ticket experience. I can stomach 7/210 easily.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
No way he's worth $30MM per year for 7. If he wants 7 years, it's more likely to be ~$25MM per.
Bellinger compares well to Springer and Nimmo. He’ll be 2 years younger than Nimmo and 3 years younger than Springer when they hit free agency. He’s unquestionably the best glove of the three. He’s had higher highs and lower lows than both, but in the aggregate is a bit better bat than Nimmo and a bit worse than Springer.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
He's an interesting case.
The performance right now is only deepening the mystery of what the heck happened in 2021 and 2022.
To the extent the market can see past that, a genuinely elite bat with major defensive value at a premium position entering his age 28 season is a massively valuable commodity, frankly nowhere even close to guys like Nimmo and Springer.
But Nimmo and Springer didn't turn into Neifi Perez for two years. I dunno, it's a tough one.
The trend seems to be for contracts to be spread out over more years to keep the AAV down. If it’s, for example, between a 10 year deal for $20 million per or a 6 year deal for $30 million per, the team should take the longer deal. You’ll be getting the same number of effective seasons from the player, for not much more overall money, but taking less of a luxury tax hit.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
Which guy you gonna get, the 2022 version or the 2023 version? He got worse every year after 2019 up to 2023. I'm not convinced he's fully back from whatever caused his three year funk.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
True, but an unusually young FA like Bellinger might look at the situation, especially where teams might be unusually leery about his longer term prospects given his big slump, and look to get super duper paid over 3 years instead.
That would be music to the Cubs ears who keep trying to offer deals like that for premium free agents with no takers.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
Agree. See my post right above Gritty's. Not sure I want the Cubs to gamble on 400 ABs for anything longer than 3 years.
Yeah. I could see Bellinger trying to take a second bite at the free agent apple. Go for the deal with the highest AAV now, perhaps with opt outs after 2 or 3 years and then look for the highest guarantee regardless of the number of seasons when entering his year 30 or 31 season.
The Cubs have been one of the teams trying to swim against the current on these long 8-10 year deals. So if Bellinger takes the short term tact, the Cubs might be a good fit.
Here’s my thing tho… what other impact free agents are the Cubs realistically going to sign? The cubs are a big market. Time they act like it
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
There should be major resources to spend this offseason, as there were last offseason.
As there is every offseason. What other major market team do you hear speaking like this cubs do? 13th payroll this season is a freaking joke when they charge what they do. The problem is that the FA class isn’t worse spending on like it was last season. Cubs need stars. They aren’t developing them. Better buy them then.
Shane Walsh
aka "Captain Oblivious"
- Cynthiana, Kentucky
In other news, Marquee has finally announced their in market direct to consumer streaming service. (yay!)
It appears to be $20/month. (boo!)
It appears to be $20/month. (boo!)
It is going to see how his market develops. The highs for him are MVP high, and the lows are so low you can't play him. I do think a lot of his struggles were related to his rib and shoulder injuries. Both of those can really mess up your swing, especially if you are trying to play through them and develop bad habits. You can see the confidence coming back and its got to be scary for opposing pitchers. They all know what he is capable of when he is going well.
If it hadn't been for the down years, we'd be looking at a guy who would be setting the market in terms of player salary. Maybe not Ohtani money, but certainly Machado/Harper money.
If we have the opportunity to sign him at an AAV around 25 million, I'd say go for it. There is no one else in our organization that has the ability to hit like an MVP, right now. We need stars if we are going to take the next step.
- Status