Cubs 2023 Season

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#701      
Emerson Bigguns
Maybe it's the jaded old Cubs fan in me, but this win streak seems very on brand for the Cubs in general. Get just hot enough to create the illusion of contention and waste a great opportunity to improve the long-term prospects of the club.
I'm just not convinced they can sustain a run... I hope I'm wrong.
 
#702      
Champaign poppin
Emerson Bigguns said:
Maybe it's the jaded old Cubs fan in me, but this win streak seems very on brand for the Cubs in general. Get just hot enough to create the illusion of contention and waste a great opportunity to improve the long-term prospects of the club.
I'm just not convinced they can sustain a run... I hope I'm wrong.
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They have a +50ish run differential. I don’t care about prospects anymore. It’s time to win. What other big markers are selling for the 3rd year in a row?
 
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#703      
ChiefGritty
Emerson Bigguns said:
Maybe it's the jaded old Cubs fan in me, but this win streak seems very on brand for the Cubs in general. Get just hot enough to create the illusion of contention and waste a great opportunity to improve the long-term prospects of the club.
I'm just not convinced they can sustain a run... I hope I'm wrong.
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I'm with you. But two things

1. The illusion is the Cubs record. The underlying reality is that this team is pretty good.
2. How could would the deals for Bellinger and Stroman actually be? Are you REALLY supercharging the future with those returns?

I think the honest truth is that it's just a tough 50/50 type call that honestly hinges on the outcome of the handful of games the team is in the midst of.

And then you add the even more uncomfortable part where if they aren't selling, boy this team could use a rental bullpen piece, always the worst and dumbest kind of trade teams make at the deadline.
 
#704      
champaignchris
Emerson Bigguns said:
Maybe it's the jaded old Cubs fan in me, but this win streak seems very on brand for the Cubs in general. Get just hot enough to create the illusion of contention and waste a great opportunity to improve the long-term prospects of the club.
I'm just not convinced they can sustain a run... I hope I'm wrong.
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I don’t see a lot of opportunity to improve long-term here. No one that they would actually trade besides Stroman and Bellinger will bring anything better than a Rule 5 exposed non-prospect.

I don’t know that Bellinger and Stroman bring in anyone that would be in the top 10 of the Cubs current prospects.

I don’t like forfeiting a 20% chance to make the playoffs (Fangraphs currently has the Cubs at 18.8%) in return for an undetermined increase in playoff chances at some undetermined time in the future.
 
#706      
Illini2010-11
ChiefGritty said:
I'm with you. But two things

1. The illusion is the Cubs record. The underlying reality is that this team is pretty good.
2. How could would the deals for Bellinger and Stroman actually be? Are you REALLY supercharging the future with those returns?

I think the honest truth is that it's just a tough 50/50 type call that honestly hinges on the outcome of the handful of games the team is in the midst of.

And then you add the even more uncomfortable part where if they aren't selling, boy this team could use a rental bullpen piece, always the worst and dumbest kind of trade teams make at the deadline.
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As a Sox fan, this is why I am happy they are so far out of it at this point -- for this exact sentence. Bullpen pitching always seems to have a premium at the trade deadline, and the playoff expansion makes this even more so with fewer teams selling. I am not envious of the position Cubs management is in right now. It is such a coin flip on what to do (I am sure this weekend will tell a lot as well). If the Cubs are serious about trying to make the playoffs this year, then your last sentence is obviously true; but if they are sellers, I am not sure how good of returns they could get on their "rentals" and could suffer some backlash from fans for waving white flag on a team trending in right direction at trade deadline. Is standing pat even a good option anymore? I am not sure if the Cubs are at the point in the rebuild to be trading away any part of their rebuilt farm system for a 1/5 chance at making expanded playoffs.
 
#707      
champaignchris
I think however he goes, Hoyer has to look at 2024 assets. If he sells, he needs to get prospects that are far along in development and have a chance to contribute next year. If he buys, he has to get assets that aren’t mere rentals and will still be with the team next year.
 
#708      
Illini2010-11
champaignchris said:
I think however he goes, Hoyer has to look at 2024 assets. If he sells, he needs to get prospects that are far along in development and have a chance to contribute next year. If he buys, he has to get assets that aren’t mere rentals and will still be with the team next year.
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In practice, I do not think this is possible the way you lay it out. If selling, I do not believe there is a return on any trade that will provide a prospect that close to contributing anything meaningful next year, unless you give up something bigger than a "rental". Likewise, if buying, to get a longer term asset will cost quite a bit more than Cubs are probably willing to give up. With so few clubs in clear selling mode, long term assets will not come cheap.

This is the conundrum presented by the expanded playoffs.
 
#709      
ChiefGritty
Illini2010-11 said:
In practice, I do not think this is possible the way you lay it out. If selling, I do not believe there is a return on any trade that will provide a prospect that close to contributing anything meaningful next year, unless you give up something bigger than a "rental". Likewise, if buying, to get a longer term asset will cost quite a bit more than Cubs are probably willing to give up. With so few clubs in clear selling mode, long term assets will not come cheap.

This is the conundrum presented by the expanded playoffs.
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I agree generally.

But then also Craig Kimbrel brought back Nick Madrigal, already in the majors though injured at the time.

Just kinda depends what different buying teams are willing to do.
 
#710      
Illini2010-11
ChiefGritty said:
I agree generally.

But then also Craig Kimbrel brought back Nick Madrigal, already in the majors though injured at the time.

Just kinda depends what different buying teams are willing to do.
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I remember how critical Chicago media was from the Cubs perspective. The key reason that Kimbrel fetched a controllable major leaguer in Madrigal was that he was pitching lights out and he himself was controllable for another season. I loved the move for my Sox at the time, but in hindsight, it completely blew up in the Sox face. However, this is a move you have to make when you are in win now mode. I guess the rule of not putting a traditional closer in a non-closer role held true in this case, and the Sox are regretting not having Madrigal now.

The key is the controllable asset part. For the Cubs (if selling or buying) to get back another major league ready player for 2024 and beyond, I think they would need to give up someone who is more controllable, which at this part of the rebuild, I do not think they will want to do. Again, just my thoughts on an evolving situation.

The Cubs are in a very tricky position. I think you guys are a year ahead of expected in the rebuild, and it would be silly to do anything drastic to hurt 2024 (where they can easily contend in NL Central) to chase a lower probability of making playoffs in 2023. I will say that I was completely wrong about Bellinger -- I never expected him to have such a comeback season. The fact that this is a major discussion is testaments to the scouting of the Cubs management system, something I wish the Sox would get better at (maybe when Sox finally have a new owner).
 
#711      
Warren Carter Fanclub
champaignchris said:
I think however he goes, Hoyer has to look at 2024 assets. If he sells, he needs to get prospects that are far along in development and have a chance to contribute next year. If he buys, he has to get assets that aren’t mere rentals and will still be with the team next year.
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Candelario for Wisdom, Mancini, Boxberger, Hughes, Barnhardt, Brennen Davis and Ed Howard. :ROFLMAO:
 
#714      
IanKEvans2
Related, Ian Happ is a monster and deserved retaliation.

(Heavy emphasis on the sarcasm to the dinosaur fans who have the mantra of "play the game the 'right' way")

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#715      
Grandpa
It's been a long struggle, but the Cubs are now exactly average! Pretty exciting. I guess at this point I am cheering for them to win the WS this season. Probably all that will happen is that they will lose their trade bait for no good reason, but we can always hope.
Can you tell that I am Jaded? Why post if I am going to be a Debbie Downer?
Go Cubs!
 
#718      
KBLEE
IanKEvans2 said:
Seeing that Bellinger web gem of a double play playing 1B did have me thinking extension with him at that position, with Crow-Armstrong in CF next year.
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He also saved Swanson and error on the really high throw that many 1Bs would not have gotten to.
 
#723      
DeonThomas
Sort of amazing.......

48 hours before the deadline and I've not yet seen one Cubs trade target published anywhere.
 
#724      
Mr. Tibbs
DeonThomas said:
Sort of amazing.......

48 hours before the deadline and I've not yet seen one Cubs trade target published anywhere.
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thats what winning 7 in a row, and getting to 3.5 games from wild card spot will do

mgmt is frozen now on the direction to take
 
#725      
oldman
The rain delay and leading 4-1 in the 6th isn’t helping their decision-making either.
 
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