December Bracketology

Battle89 said:

View attachment 45931

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Second place is 1st loser said:

We weren't talking about Illinois specifically, but if you want to bring up a sore subject.....as a #3 seed, we lost to Austin Peay(1987), lost to UT Chattanooga (#14 seed) in 1997, beat #13 seed UT Chattanooga by 1 point in 2022, so yes..... we've had our share of brutal games vs the lower seeds.

Those losses were under Henson and Kruger, two Hall of Fame caliber coaches.

I agree 100% that 6 and 7 are about the same, but I don't think that 10 and 11 are. That 11 seed usually comes from a play in game and those games are usually two big names having turbulent seasons and getting in the tournament is a lifeline. It's house money or you get a team with something to prove because they don't think they belong there. The winner has a game under their belt and the jitters are gone. UNC, Texas and Xavier were all 11 seeds last year. I think Colorado, who has 2 NBA players, also came out of that game and beat Florida in the 6/11 game. It's a big difference.

That's purely MO.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

2021-2022 | #4 Seed & #14 Overall Seed
Record: 22-9
NET Ranking: #15
NET SOS Rank: #21
Away Record: 7-4
Quad 1 Record: 6-6
Quad 2 Record: 6-3
Quad 3 Record: 6-0
Quad 4 Record: 4-0

2023-2024 | #3 Seed & #12 Overall Seed
Record: 26-8
NET Ranking: #13
NET SOS Rank: #35
Away Record: 6-5
Quad 1 Record: 8-6
Quad 2 Record: 6-1
Quad 3 Record: 7-1
Quad 4 Record: 5-0

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RabidDawgClassic said:

That game was perhaps the most frustrating illini victory in my lifetime. There’ve been many frustrating losses (Penn State variety, to name a few), but that would had my gut churning for all 60 minutes.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

So, while I am no Bracketology expert, let's look at two recent resumes of ours - a #4 seed resume in 2022 and a #3 seed in 2024. Given it seems like a really important goal for us to stay above that #4 seed line and get a top 3 seed, this should be a relevant comparison. By the way, I am only listing the Away Record because that is what's saved in the NET Archives for each year ... kind of tells me the Committee indeed does value that!

2021-2022 | #4 Seed & #14 Overall Seed
Record: 22-9
NET Ranking: #15
NET SOS Rank: #21
Away Record: 7-4
Quad 1 Record: 6-6
Quad 2 Record: 6-3
Quad 3 Record: 6-0
Quad 4 Record: 4-0

2023-2024 | #3 Seed & #12 Overall Seed
Record: 26-8
NET Ranking: #13
NET SOS Rank: #35
Away Record: 6-5
Quad 1 Record: 8-6
Quad 2 Record: 6-1
Quad 3 Record: 7-1
Quad 4 Record: 5-0

Actually very similar resumes on paper, so some food for thought for the crowd that thinks zero BTT games matter. The 2022 team lost its first BTT game on Friday to #38 Indiana, a Quad 1 loss. The 2024 team won the BTT, so even if you discount the Sunday result, that was wins against #33 Nebraska and #49 Ohio State, both Quad 1 wins. You can tell me all you want that the 2024 team would have been a #3 seed even if we lost our first BTT game, but ... I will not believe you, lol. Anyway...

So looking strictly at our #10 NET Ranking this year, we would be "on track" for a #3 seed (i.e., in the top 12). Again, this is our resume today:

Record: 10-3
NET Ranking: #10
NET SOS Rank: N/A but this site has us at #7 ... not sure how B1G play will affect it.
Away Record: 1-0
Quad 1 Record: 3-3
Quad 2 Record: 1-0
Quad 3 Record: 0-0
Quad 4 Record: 6-0

I don't have a KenPom subscription of anything, but this is what would happen if you applied the ESPN App's win probability to our remaining games, we would only be underdogs at Purdue and vs. Michigan. I list the actual probabilities below, but obviously the ESPN App has a lot of faith in us. While we all know crazy stuff happens in college hoops, even as a "par" this is quite optimistic and would have us as a possible (likely?) #1 seed. So, I'll just assume that we can win every game where the probability is above 70.0% and go from there (yes, I know this allows us to escape out of Evanston this time...), listed here.

Expected Wins
W vs. #199 Rutgers (Q4) ... 96.9% W
W vs. #108 Minnesota (Q3) ... 92.7% W
W vs. #146 Maryland (Q3) ... 91.2% W
W vs. #97 Oregon (Q3) ... 90.4% W
W vs. #140 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA) [Q3] ... 89.2% W
W vs. #52 Washington (Q2) ... 88.8% W
W vs. #69 Northwestern (Q2) ... 87.9% W
W vs. #66 Wisconsin (Q2) ... 82.6% W
W at #146 Maryland (Q3) ... 78.0% W
W vs. #33 Indiana (Q2) ... 73.2% W
W at #69 Northwestern (Q1) ... 71.5%

---> That's 21 wins. The remaining games are ALL on the road, with the exception of Michigan. And none of them is going to be a walk in the park. There is one, however, that is above 60.0% and likely to be played in front of a very "meh" home court advantage:

Really Should Be a Win
W at #40 USC (Q1) ... 68.0% W

---> That's 22 wins and up to a 5-3 Quad 1 record. If we consider the Michigan home game and Purdue away game as expected losses as referenced earlier, the next ones up would be these:

Opportunities For Signature Wins
at #13 Iowa (Q1) ... 57.1% W
at #11 Nebraska (Q1) ... 57.0% W
at #39 UCLA (Q1) ... 53.7% W
at #12 Michigan State (Q1) ... 51.0% W

---> If we can even go 1-3 in those games (and 0-2 in the Michigan/Purdue games), that gets us to 23-8 overall and 6-9 in Quad 1 games. Given the strength of schedule, I think that has us right on the border of a #4 and a #3 seed, barring BTT results. So, I would say the key is stealing two games from the four listed above ... and I know I have my orange-tinted glasses on, but that is entirely doable. Our path to a deep Tournament run seems via a great seed seems to be...

1. Obviously take care of business to get to 22 wins.
2. Go 2-2 or better in the Signature Wins category above, most likely (at least IMO) stealing a win at Iowa and at UCLA.
3. Then give it all we have vs. Purdue and Michigan for icing-on-the-cake wins that get us an even better overall seed or allows the dream of a #1 seed to stay alive if things break our way. The path is in front of us, and if we keep playing like we have been, it's going to be an exciting year!

For some reference, here are the #2 seeds in the last three NCAA Tournaments to look for some metrics we should maybe shoot for. NET Ranking is listed first and then some select metrics. They are also all listed in order of their overall seed that year, so from the #5 overall seed to the #8 overall seed (even though the ranking shown is their NET Ranking).

2023 #2 Seeds
#3 UCLA: 29-5 Overall. 8-5 vs. Quad 1. 9-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#7 Texas: 26-8 Overall. 14-8 vs. Quad 1. 4-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#10 Arizona: 28-6 Overall. 9-2 vs. Quad 1. 7-4 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#12 Marquette: 28-6 Overall. 8-5 vs. Quad 1. 6-0 vs. Quad 2. 1 Quad 3/Quad 4 Loss.

2024 #2 Seeds
#7 Tennessee: 24-8 Overall. 8-7 vs. Quad 1. 5-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#4 Arizona: 25-8 Overall. 8-3 vs. Quad 1. 7-4 vs. Quad 2. 1 Quad 3/Quad 4 Loss.
#14 Marquette: 25-9 Overall. 9-8 vs. Quad 1. 6-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#6 Iowa State: 27-7 Overall. 10-6 vs. Quad 1. 6-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.

2025 #2 Seeds
#5 Tennessee: 27-7 Overall. 11-7 vs. Quad 1. 5-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#6 Alabama: 25-8 Overall. 11-8 vs. Quad 1. 8-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#11 Michigan State: 27-6 Overall. 13-5 vs. Quad 1. 5-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#13 St. John's (NY): 30-4 Overall. 6-4 vs. Quad 1. 11-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.

So to the extent there are "rules," I would say these are good goals to go for...

1. Definitely don't have double digit losses, and preferably have 8 or fewer, on Selection Sunday.
2. Surprisingly, NET Ranking appears to be even more of a guideline for the top seeds than the lower ones ... with that said, you definitely want to be close to the top 10, ideally.
3. Don't lose Quad 3 or Quad 4 games. Of the 12 teams reviewed, only two had a Quad 3/Quad 4 loss, and they each only had one. 2024 Arizona combatted that with a stellar #4 NET Ranking (theoretically a #1 seed) and a great record in Quad 1 (8-3) and Quad 2 (7-4) games. 2023 Marquette didn't have as great of a NET Ranking, but they only had 6 losses overall and also had a great record in Quad 1 (8-5) and especially Quad 2 (6-0) games.
4. If you don't have 8 or more Quad 1 wins, you better make up for it with (A) a shiny overall record, (B) a ton of Quad 2 wins or (C) ideally both! St. John's (NY) had the record of a #1 seed last year, but they were the lowest-ranked #2 seed probably because of only having a 6-4 record in Quad 1 games (for reference, our #6 seed team last year had an 8-10 record in Quad 1 games...).

I know each season is different, and you are graded on a curve against your peers for your NCAA Tournament seed. However, when looking at our schedule and taking into account our results so far, I think we have an excellent shot at a #2 seed if we can get to a 24-7 record before the BTT starts. That is going 14-3 the rest of the way ... difficult, yes, but not out of the realm of possibility by any means! The game at Iowa next weekend is H-U-G-E.

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lstewart53x3 said:

This really shows just how much every game matters. Looking at these two seasons, the 4 seed had two more Q2 losses, but the 3 seed had one more Q3 loss, so that basically cancels each other out.

Which means that the difference between the 3 seed and 4 seed was two additional Q1 wins. Razor thin.

With 8 remaining Q1 games, I imagine we need to win 5 of them to get into a 3 seed conversation and 6 to get into a 2 seed conversation. And ideally we drop 0 Q3/Q4 games and 1 or less Q2 games.

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Piotyr said:

Well, I've said time and time again that the various bracketologies and metrics don't mean a whole lot until January, and now it's January, so let's take a look at the current state of the bracket, and how things are looking to shake out come March.

First, three things to keep in mind:
1. The polls are meaningless. At least from a bracketing and quality perspective. They're useful for recruiting and media attention, but they hold no actual merit as to the quality of a team or where they'll be bracketed.
2. There are effectively two kinds of metrics: resume-based metrics and efficiency-based metrics. Resume-based metrics evaluate a team based on who they've played and beat. Their value is more in terms of how earned their spot is in an era of unbalanced conference schedules and wildly different non-conference schedules. Efficiency-based metrics evaluate a team based on how they've performed in each game. This is more predictive of how they'll perform going forward, and is more indicative of the actual quality of a team.
3. This is just for fun, and things will still change and teams will perform differently going forward to March, so a team that's in a position to get a 1 seed now may not be lined up for such at the actual tournament selection.

The bracket:
There are 68 teams that make the tournament, and 31 conferences with automatic bids (RIP Pac-12 until next year), so there will be 37 at-large selections. Of those 31 conferences, 17 of them do not have a team currently in the top 75 of the NET (CUSA, BW, BSky, CAA, Horz, SB, Sum, BSth, ASun, SoCon, MAAC, Pat, OVC, SWAC, NEC, AE, MEAC). 4 others (Southland, Ivy, MAC, WAC) have one team in the top 75 of the NET (McNeese, Yale, Akron, Utah Valley) that is still being propped up by non-con numbers, and should they not sweep through their conference, likely don't have the resumes to be in the at-large discussion proper. That leaves 10 conferences with at least one team that is currently at least worthy of at-large discussion. For now, we'll assume the best team in each conference wins the conference, so that would mean the American and MVC conferences get 1 team each (Tulsa, Illinois State), but keep those in mind for potential bid thieves as we get into March.

Assuming the highest NET team in each conference makes the tournament, that gives us the 31 auto bids:
B1G - Michigan (1)
B12 - Arizona (2)
WCC - Gonzaga (4)
ACC - Duke (5)
SEC - Vanderbilt (6)
BE - UConn (8)
MW - Utah State (19)
A10 - St. Louis (29)
American - Tulsa (37)
MAC - Akron (47)
Southland - McNeese (48)
WAC - Utah Valley (51)
MVC - Illinois State (53)
Ivy - Yale (59)
CAA - William & Mary (79)
BW - UC San Diego (80)
BSth - High Point (89)
CUSA - Middle Tennessee (99)
Summit - St. Thomas (115)
BSky - Idaho State (119)
SB - Arkansas State (120)
Horz - Wright State (123)
SoCon - ETSU (128)
ASun - Lipscomb (143)
MAAC - Quinnipiac (157)
OVC - UT Martin (171)
Patriot - Colgate (181)
NEC - LIU (184)
AE - Vermont (198)
SWAC - Grambling (222)
MEAC - Howard (244)

That leaves 37 at large bids. To simplify, I'll just take the 37 best teams in resume metrics that aren't already listed as having auto bids, as long as their efficiency metrics aren't in the toilet (see: Miami-OH). The two most prominent resume metrics are WAB (wins above bubble) and SOR (strength of record), so we'll just average those to get our 37. Again, the metrics are just starting to show meaning, so this is more of an exercise to see where teams are at right now.

At large field (37): Iowa State, Nebraska, Purdue, BYU, North Carolina, Alabama, Michigan State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Villanova, Illinois, USC, UCF, Louisville, SMU, Auburn, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Clemson, Virginia, Georgia, Iowa, Tennessee, LSU, Miami-FL, California, Baylor, Florida, Ohio State, Butler, St. John's, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Oklahoma

Just missed, don't have the resume (yet): Arizona State, Indiana, Stanford, Missouri, Wisconsin, Washington, Creighton, TCU, New Mexico, Nevada, Boise State, NC State, Wake Forest, Texas, Texas A&M

Now, keep in mind, this is just a snapshot of right now, and just to give an indicator of whose resume isn't all that right now and needs to improve their standing to feel safe come March.

As for the seeding, I'll just rank the teams based on an average from NET, KenPom and Torvik. Auto bids bold.

Seeds:
1 (1). Michigan
2 (1). Arizona
3 (1). Purdue
4 (1). UConn
5 (2). Iowa State
6 (2). Vanderbilt
7 (2). Gonzaga
8 (2). Houston
9 (3). Duke
10 (3). Illinois
11 (3). Alabama
12 (3). Louisville
13 (4). BYU
14 (4). Florida
15 (4). Tennessee
16 (4). Kansas
17 (5). Michigan State
18 (5). Iowa
19 (5). St. John's
20 (5). Virginia
21 (6). Texas Tech
22 (6). Nebraska
23 (6). North Carolina
24 (6). Arkansas
25 (7). Kentucky
26 (7). St. Mary's
27 (7). Georgia
28 (7). Villanova
29 (8). UCLA
30 (8). Utah State
31 (8). Clemson
32 (8). Baylor
33 (9). Auburn
34 (9). LSU
35 (9). Miami-FL
36 (9). St. Louis
37 (10). SMU
38 (10). USC
39 (10). Ohio State
40 (10). Creighton
41 (11). Seton Hall
42 (11*). Butler
43 (11*). UCF
44 (11). Akron
45 (11*). Oklahoma
46 (11*). Virginia Tech
47 (12). Tulsa
48 (12). Illinois State
49 (12). McNeese
50 (12). Utah Valley
51 (13). Yale
52 (13). William and Mary
53 (13). UC San Diego
54 (13). High Point
55 (13). Middle Tennessee
56 (14). St. Thomas
57 (14). Idaho State
58 (14). Arkansas State
59 (14). Wright State
60 (15). ETSU
61 (15). Lipscomb
62 (15). Quinnipiac
63 (15). UT Martin
64 (16). Colgate
65 (16*). LIU
66 (16*). Vermont
67 (16*). Grambling
68 (16*). Howard

First four out: Indiana, NC State, Creighton, Texas
Next four out: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, VCU, Washington

Granted, there's an entire conference season to go, but this is a basic windows as to where teams are right now. I'm sure Indiana will do enough to improve their resume, as their efficiency metrics are far and away the best for a team not in the field right now. NC State would be next, and they should be okay, but not setting the world on fire either.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

So, while I am no Bracketology expert, let's look at two recent resumes of ours - a #4 seed resume in 2022 and a #3 seed in 2024. Given it seems like a really important goal for us to stay above that #4 seed line and get a top 3 seed, this should be a relevant comparison. By the way, I am only listing the Away Record because that is what's saved in the NET Archives for each year ... kind of tells me the Committee indeed does value that!

2021-2022 | #4 Seed & #14 Overall Seed
Record: 22-9
NET Ranking: #15
NET SOS Rank: #21
Away Record: 7-4
Quad 1 Record: 6-6
Quad 2 Record: 6-3
Quad 3 Record: 6-0
Quad 4 Record: 4-0

2023-2024 | #3 Seed & #12 Overall Seed
Record: 26-8
NET Ranking: #13
NET SOS Rank: #35
Away Record: 6-5
Quad 1 Record: 8-6
Quad 2 Record: 6-1
Quad 3 Record: 7-1
Quad 4 Record: 5-0

Actually very similar resumes on paper, so some food for thought for the crowd that thinks zero BTT games matter. The 2022 team lost its first BTT game on Friday to #38 Indiana, a Quad 1 loss. The 2024 team won the BTT, so even if you discount the Sunday result, that was wins against #33 Nebraska and #49 Ohio State, both Quad 1 wins. You can tell me all you want that the 2024 team would have been a #3 seed even if we lost our first BTT game, but ... I will not believe you, lol. Anyway...

So looking strictly at our #10 NET Ranking this year, we would be "on track" for a #3 seed (i.e., in the top 12). Again, this is our resume today:

Record: 10-3
NET Ranking: #10
NET SOS Rank: N/A but this site has us at #7 ... not sure how B1G play will affect it.
Away Record: 1-0
Quad 1 Record: 3-3
Quad 2 Record: 1-0
Quad 3 Record: 0-0
Quad 4 Record: 6-0

I don't have a KenPom subscription of anything, but this is what would happen if you applied the ESPN App's win probability to our remaining games, we would only be underdogs at Purdue and vs. Michigan. I list the actual probabilities below, but obviously the ESPN App has a lot of faith in us. While we all know crazy stuff happens in college hoops, even as a "par" this is quite optimistic and would have us as a possible (likely?) #1 seed. So, I'll just assume that we can win every game where the probability is above 70.0% and go from there (yes, I know this allows us to escape out of Evanston this time...), listed here.

Expected Wins
W vs. #199 Rutgers (Q4) ... 96.9% W
W vs. #108 Minnesota (Q3) ... 92.7% W
W vs. #146 Maryland (Q3) ... 91.2% W
W vs. #97 Oregon (Q3) ... 90.4% W
W vs. #140 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA) [Q3] ... 89.2% W
W vs. #52 Washington (Q2) ... 88.8% W
W vs. #69 Northwestern (Q2) ... 87.9% W
W vs. #66 Wisconsin (Q2) ... 82.6% W
W at #146 Maryland (Q3) ... 78.0% W
W vs. #33 Indiana (Q2) ... 73.2% W
W at #69 Northwestern (Q1) ... 71.5%

---> That's 21 wins. The remaining games are ALL on the road, with the exception of Michigan. And none of them is going to be a walk in the park. There is one, however, that is above 60.0% and likely to be played in front of a very "meh" home court advantage:

Really Should Be a Win
W at #40 USC (Q1) ... 68.0% W

---> That's 22 wins and up to a 5-3 Quad 1 record. If we consider the Michigan home game and Purdue away game as expected losses as referenced earlier, the next ones up would be these:

Opportunities For Signature Wins
at #13 Iowa (Q1) ... 57.1% W
at #11 Nebraska (Q1) ... 57.0% W
at #39 UCLA (Q1) ... 53.7% W
at #12 Michigan State (Q1) ... 51.0% W

---> If we can even go 1-3 in those games (and 0-2 in the Michigan/Purdue games), that gets us to 23-8 overall and 6-9 in Quad 1 games. Given the strength of schedule, I think that has us right on the border of a #4 and a #3 seed, barring BTT results. So, I would say the key is stealing two games from the four listed above ... and I know I have my orange-tinted glasses on, but that is entirely doable. Our path to a deep Tournament run seems via a great seed seems to be...

1. Obviously take care of business to get to 22 wins.
2. Go 2-2 or better in the Signature Wins category above, most likely (at least IMO) stealing a win at Iowa and at UCLA.
3. Then give it all we have vs. Purdue and Michigan for icing-on-the-cake wins that get us an even better overall seed or allows the dream of a #1 seed to stay alive if things break our way. The path is in front of us, and if we keep playing like we have been, it's going to be an exciting year!

For some reference, here are the #2 seeds in the last three NCAA Tournaments to look for some metrics we should maybe shoot for. NET Ranking is listed first and then some select metrics. They are also all listed in order of their overall seed that year, so from the #5 overall seed to the #8 overall seed (even though the ranking shown is their NET Ranking).

2023 #2 Seeds
#3 UCLA: 29-5 Overall. 8-5 vs. Quad 1. 9-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#7 Texas: 26-8 Overall. 14-8 vs. Quad 1. 4-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#10 Arizona: 28-6 Overall. 9-2 vs. Quad 1. 7-4 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#12 Marquette: 28-6 Overall. 8-5 vs. Quad 1. 6-0 vs. Quad 2. 1 Quad 3/Quad 4 Loss.

2024 #2 Seeds
#7 Tennessee: 24-8 Overall. 8-7 vs. Quad 1. 5-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#4 Arizona: 25-8 Overall. 8-3 vs. Quad 1. 7-4 vs. Quad 2. 1 Quad 3/Quad 4 Loss.
#14 Marquette: 25-9 Overall. 9-8 vs. Quad 1. 6-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#6 Iowa State: 27-7 Overall. 10-6 vs. Quad 1. 6-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.

2025 #2 Seeds
#5 Tennessee: 27-7 Overall. 11-7 vs. Quad 1. 5-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#6 Alabama: 25-8 Overall. 11-8 vs. Quad 1. 8-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#11 Michigan State: 27-6 Overall. 13-5 vs. Quad 1. 5-1 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.
#13 St. John's (NY): 30-4 Overall. 6-4 vs. Quad 1. 11-0 vs. Quad 2. 0 Quad 3/Quad 4 Losses.

So to the extent there are "rules," I would say these are good goals to go for...

1. Definitely don't have double digit losses, and preferably have 8 or fewer, on Selection Sunday.
2. Surprisingly, NET Ranking appears to be even more of a guideline for the top seeds than the lower ones ... with that said, you definitely want to be close to the top 10, ideally.
3. Don't lose Quad 3 or Quad 4 games. Of the 12 teams reviewed, only two had a Quad 3/Quad 4 loss, and they each only had one. 2024 Arizona combatted that with a stellar #4 NET Ranking (theoretically a #1 seed) and a great record in Quad 1 (8-3) and Quad 2 (7-4) games. 2023 Marquette didn't have as great of a NET Ranking, but they only had 6 losses overall and also had a great record in Quad 1 (8-5) and especially Quad 2 (6-0) games.
4. If you don't have 8 or more Quad 1 wins, you better make up for it with (A) a shiny overall record, (B) a ton of Quad 2 wins or (C) ideally both! St. John's (NY) had the record of a #1 seed last year, but they were the lowest-ranked #2 seed probably because of only having a 6-4 record in Quad 1 games (for reference, our #6 seed team last year had an 8-10 record in Quad 1 games...).

I know each season is different, and you are graded on a curve against your peers for your NCAA Tournament seed. However, when looking at our schedule and taking into account our results so far, I think we have an excellent shot at a #2 seed if we can get to a 24-7 record before the BTT starts. That is going 14-3 the rest of the way ... difficult, yes, but not out of the realm of possibility by any means! The game at Iowa next weekend is H-U-G-E.

Click to expand...

Piotyr said:

Well, I've said time and time again that the various bracketologies and metrics don't mean a whole lot until January, and now it's January, so let's take a look at the current state of the bracket, and how things are looking to shake out come March.

First, three things to keep in mind:
1. The polls are meaningless. At least from a bracketing and quality perspective. They're useful for recruiting and media attention, but they hold no actual merit as to the quality of a team or where they'll be bracketed.
2. There are effectively two kinds of metrics: resume-based metrics and efficiency-based metrics. Resume-based metrics evaluate a team based on who they've played and beat. Their value is more in terms of how earned their spot is in an era of unbalanced conference schedules and wildly different non-conference schedules. Efficiency-based metrics evaluate a team based on how they've performed in each game. This is more predictive of how they'll perform going forward, and is more indicative of the actual quality of a team.
3. This is just for fun, and things will still change and teams will perform differently going forward to March, so a team that's in a position to get a 1 seed now may not be lined up for such at the actual tournament selection.

The bracket:
There are 68 teams that make the tournament, and 31 conferences with automatic bids (RIP Pac-12 until next year), so there will be 37 at-large selections. Of those 31 conferences, 17 of them do not have a team currently in the top 75 of the NET (CUSA, BW, BSky, CAA, Horz, SB, Sum, BSth, ASun, SoCon, MAAC, Pat, OVC, SWAC, NEC, AE, MEAC). 4 others (Southland, Ivy, MAC, WAC) have one team in the top 75 of the NET (McNeese, Yale, Akron, Utah Valley) that is still being propped up by non-con numbers, and should they not sweep through their conference, likely don't have the resumes to be in the at-large discussion proper. That leaves 10 conferences with at least one team that is currently at least worthy of at-large discussion. For now, we'll assume the best team in each conference wins the conference, so that would mean the American and MVC conferences get 1 team each (Tulsa, Illinois State), but keep those in mind for potential bid thieves as we get into March.

Assuming the highest NET team in each conference makes the tournament, that gives us the 31 auto bids:
B1G - Michigan (1)
B12 - Arizona (2)
WCC - Gonzaga (4)
ACC - Duke (5)
SEC - Vanderbilt (6)
BE - UConn (8)
MW - Utah State (19)
A10 - St. Louis (29)
American - Tulsa (37)
MAC - Akron (47)
Southland - McNeese (48)
WAC - Utah Valley (51)
MVC - Illinois State (53)
Ivy - Yale (59)
CAA - William & Mary (79)
BW - UC San Diego (80)
BSth - High Point (89)
CUSA - Middle Tennessee (99)
Summit - St. Thomas (115)
BSky - Idaho State (119)
SB - Arkansas State (120)
Horz - Wright State (123)
SoCon - ETSU (128)
ASun - Lipscomb (143)
MAAC - Quinnipiac (157)
OVC - UT Martin (171)
Patriot - Colgate (181)
NEC - LIU (184)
AE - Vermont (198)
SWAC - Grambling (222)
MEAC - Howard (244)

That leaves 37 at large bids. To simplify, I'll just take the 37 best teams in resume metrics that aren't already listed as having auto bids, as long as their efficiency metrics aren't in the toilet (see: Miami-OH). The two most prominent resume metrics are WAB (wins above bubble) and SOR (strength of record), so we'll just average those to get our 37. Again, the metrics are just starting to show meaning, so this is more of an exercise to see where teams are at right now.

At large field (37): Iowa State, Nebraska, Purdue, BYU, North Carolina, Alabama, Michigan State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Villanova, Illinois, USC, UCF, Louisville, SMU, Auburn, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Clemson, Virginia, Georgia, Iowa, Tennessee, LSU, Miami-FL, California, Baylor, Florida, Ohio State, Butler, St. John's, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Oklahoma

Just missed, don't have the resume (yet): Arizona State, Indiana, Stanford, Missouri, Wisconsin, Washington, Creighton, TCU, New Mexico, Nevada, Boise State, NC State, Wake Forest, Texas, Texas A&M

Now, keep in mind, this is just a snapshot of right now, and just to give an indicator of whose resume isn't all that right now and needs to improve their standing to feel safe come March.

As for the seeding, I'll just rank the teams based on an average from NET, KenPom and Torvik. Auto bids bold.

Seeds:
1 (1). Michigan
2 (1). Arizona
3 (1). Purdue
4 (1). UConn
5 (2). Iowa State
6 (2). Vanderbilt
7 (2). Gonzaga
8 (2). Houston
9 (3). Duke
10 (3). Illinois
11 (3). Alabama
12 (3). Louisville
13 (4). BYU
14 (4). Florida
15 (4). Tennessee
16 (4). Kansas
17 (5). Michigan State
18 (5). Iowa
19 (5). St. John's
20 (5). Virginia
21 (6). Texas Tech
22 (6). Nebraska
23 (6). North Carolina
24 (6). Arkansas
25 (7). Kentucky
26 (7). St. Mary's
27 (7). Georgia
28 (7). Villanova
29 (8). UCLA
30 (8). Utah State
31 (8). Clemson
32 (8). Baylor
33 (9). Auburn
34 (9). LSU
35 (9). Miami-FL
36 (9). St. Louis
37 (10). SMU
38 (10). USC
39 (10). Ohio State
40 (10). Creighton
41 (11). Seton Hall
42 (11*). Butler
43 (11*). UCF
44 (11). Akron
45 (11*). Oklahoma
46 (11*). Virginia Tech
47 (12). Tulsa
48 (12). Illinois State
49 (12). McNeese
50 (12). Utah Valley
51 (13). Yale
52 (13). William and Mary
53 (13). UC San Diego
54 (13). High Point
55 (13). Middle Tennessee
56 (14). St. Thomas
57 (14). Idaho State
58 (14). Arkansas State
59 (14). Wright State
60 (15). ETSU
61 (15). Lipscomb
62 (15). Quinnipiac
63 (15). UT Martin
64 (16). Colgate
65 (16*). LIU
66 (16*). Vermont
67 (16*). Grambling
68 (16*). Howard

First four out: Indiana, NC State, Creighton, Texas
Next four out: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, VCU, Washington

Granted, there's an entire conference season to go, but this is a basic windows as to where teams are right now. I'm sure Indiana will do enough to improve their resume, as their efficiency metrics are far and away the best for a team not in the field right now. NC State would be next, and they should be okay, but not setting the world on fire either.

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HereSoIDontGetFined said:

Absolutely wild that most of our remaining quad 1 games are on the road and nearly everything else is at home.

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HereSoIDontGetFined said:

Absolutely wild that most of our remaining quad 1 games are on the road and nearly everything else is at home.

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