Early Projection for Next Season

#51      

illiniguy24

illiniguy24
illiniguy24
RickBB said:
I think people put way too much stock in experience. Talented Freshman play all over the country...and love TA and MH, but defaulting to either of them for end of clock situations rarely worked. We will have a major upgrade in talent next year, a major upgrade in system, and an excitement around the program which is palpable, whether or not Smith signs on. I believe momentum is a very real thing not only in games but in seasons....and from the Winthrop game on, the 16-17 Illini never recovered.

Next year will be the first time players really play players...there is no upperclass loyalty. I don't think its too outrageous to see DJW stay and play due to his skill set, Black still plays but probably just be a disrupter and don't worry about fouling out, we aren't expecting you to play 25 minutes a game anyway. Play 12-15, have 5 rebounds, 6 points, frustrate the opposition, and collect 3 to 5 fouls in that time. He may or may not like that role.

JCL may also be one regular who sees minutes reduced because of his lack of dribbling ability. Now, he may come in and score 12 points in about 8 minutes of critical play, but he's like those 4th outfielders the Cubs used to have that everyone loved (Reid Johnson, Sam Fuld, Tony Campenella)..great in a limited role, but extended time gets exposed. he'll have a critical role, but is he willing to stick around and average 8 points in 15 minutes as a junior and senior? He seems like a well adjusted young man, so maybe he is.

I'll be disappointed in anything lower than a 5-8th place and squarely in the tourney.
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You know, I've seen so many people say completely different things regarding how JCL will fit into the system. From actual Illini writers to bloggers, people either think he had the most upside to do well in it or that he will struggle the most.


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#52      

HTT

H
HTT
Experience is very very important in college basketball. We do not get results with experienced team because GROCE CANNOT COACH UP PLAYERS AND TEAM AT ALL. Our young squad will struggle against real coaches with more experienced teams in B1G next season. If we can sneak into the tourney, then BU has a success. The 2018-2019 season is the real test to see if BU has adequate coaching ability for a program wanting to be in the upper part of B1G.
 
#53      

IlliniInTexas

I
IlliniInTexas
HTT said:
Experience is very very important in college basketball. We do not get results with experienced team because GROCE CANNOT COACH UP PLAYERS AND TEAM AT ALL. Our young squad will struggle against real coaches with more experienced teams in B1G next season. If we can sneak into the tourney, then BU has a success. The 2018-2019 season is the real test to see if BU has adequate coaching ability for a program wanting to be in the upper part of B1G.
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Completely agree here. 11th is maybe a bit low, but 9/10th is probably about right. No way expecatations should be higher than this year's 8-10 while losing over 50% of our scoring from this year. Too much emphasis on the incoming Freshman class. The jewel of the class, Tilmon, is rated about where Leonard was coming out of HS. Meyers averaged 8 mpg while scoring 2 ppg. I'd expect more out of Tilmon given our roster, but not even close to replacing what Mav did for us this year.

The list got a little murkier with Trimble declaring today, and i think iowa a bit overrated here with the loss of Jok. I just don't see how we can reasonably expect a top 6 finish.
 
#54      

FiveStar

F
FiveStar
illiniguy24 said:
You know, I've seen so many people say completely different things regarding how JCL will fit into the system. From actual Illini writers to bloggers, people either think he had the most upside to do well in it or that he will struggle the most.


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Click to expand...

It depends on what you want to emphasize. JCL's shooting fits in any system. His ball-handling does not fit any system. If he has even average handles for his size I think he'd be dynamite. The fact that he is a walking turnover when he puts the ball on the ground, which will be a major weapon in the half court, is concerning.

There are some specific 3 point counters that Underwood runs though. Some from the perimeter and some from the HP. JCL seems like a smart enough dude to learn the ins and outs of the system, so maybe his shooting can overshadow his poor handling.

OR, BU is the JCL whisperer, tightens his handles, maintains his shooting, and JCL is the biggest perimeter weapon we have next year.
 
#55      

FatGreg

F
FatGreg
Assuming that we get Mark Smith, Brian Bowen, and a 6'10, rim-protecting 5th year big who averaged 13 & 8 at the mid-major level...and assuming JCL, TJL, Black, Finke, Nichols, et al improve a shocking amount...and assuming that one of Frazier and Smith goes full Trey Burke and turns out to be an obvious lottery talent from day one...I predict 32-7 with an E8 appearance :peace:
 
#56      

BananaShampoo

B
Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
BananaShampoo
FatGreg said:
Assuming that we get Mark Smith, Brian Bowen, and a 6'10, rim-protecting 5th year big who averaged 13 & 8 at the mid-major level...and assuming JCL, TJL, Black, Finke, Nichols, et al improve a shocking amount...and assuming that one of Frazier and Smith goes full Trey Burke and turns out to be an obvious lottery talent from day one...I predict 32-7 with an E8 appearance [emoji14]eace:
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That seems reasonable to me.
 
#57      

illiniguy24

illiniguy24
illiniguy24
FiveStar said:
It depends on what you want to emphasize. JCL's shooting fits in any system. His ball-handling does not fit any system. If he has even average handles for his size I think he'd be dynamite. The fact that he is a walking turnover when he puts the ball on the ground, which will be a major weapon in the half court, is concerning.

There are some specific 3 point counters that Underwood runs though. Some from the perimeter and some from the HP. JCL seems like a smart enough dude to learn the ins and outs of the system, so maybe his shooting can overshadow his poor handling.

OR, BU is the JCL whisperer, tightens his handles, maintains his shooting, and JCL is the biggest perimeter weapon we have next year.
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I can 100% see how it could go both ways, I personally see him being more of the same next year. I would guess he has a couple games where he goes off in the non conference, struggles in B1G play and then we will see his handles start to improve as the season come to an end. He will be dynamite as a senior.


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#58      

HTT

H
HTT
Another way to think about this is that BU went 9-9 in big 12 last season with one of the best PGs in the country. We do not have anyone remotely as talented as Evans plus B1G is tougher than big 12. A typical "Groce record" of 9-9 in B1G next year will not be easy at all.

If we hire Tony Bennett or Greg Marshall, I believe they will build a great defense with Tilmon, Black, and Tejon and we have good chance of making the tourney and even with a nice seeding. BU is not that kind of coach, so I am not sure what he can achieve with our squad at all.
 
#60      

illineuron

I
illineuron
The clear distinction for me regarding the 17-18 squad versus the preceding years is starting the years with a talented point guard. My understanding is that Coach's system is not as point guard dependent as others however Tejon's promotion to pg appeared to be the primary reason the team looked much better over the last 10 games or so.

Of course Magic Johnson would have had difficulty resurrecting this year's team and bringing consistency. But it was evident that Tejon's passing got the team easy baskets where there were none before. His defense was very good for a relatively inexperienced freshman and appeared to inspire a bit more effort from the upperclassmen. He seemed to be assuming the role of floor general which was impressive for a freshman on a team with so many older players.

The point is with some minimal development of his offensive skills, strength, and running a coherent offensive system I think Tejon gives some hope for next year. Nothing dramatic but maybe 8-9. Some folks believe Trent steps right into the role of PG. But Tejon did not have much to work with last year as well as recovering from a major injury eliminating his off-season workouts. If Trent does then he'll be a hell of a player.
 
#61      

Illwinsagain

Illwinsagain
Cary, IL
Illwinsagain
FatGreg said:
Assuming that we get Mark Smith, Brian Bowen, and a 6'10, rim-protecting 5th year big who averaged 13 & 8 at the mid-major level...and assuming JCL, TJL, Black, Finke, Nichols, et al improve a shocking amount...and assuming that one of Frazier and Smith goes full Trey Burke and turns out to be an obvious lottery talent from day one...I predict 32-7 with an E8 appearance :peace:
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If my math is right, 39 games should mean a final 4 appearance, after a BTT final. Unless, you plan to play Thursday in the BTT. I guess it depnds on where those 7 losses occur. :thumb:
 
#62      

Elgin7680

E
Elgin7680
I think you are going to have a more athletic team and with Underwood I think you will see a team that will pick up full court and be able to score in bunches, and he won't call time out when that happens. I think he does well enough to make the tournament.
 
#63      

FatGreg

F
FatGreg
Illwinsagain said:
If my math is right, 39 games should mean a final 4 appearance, after a BTT final. Unless, you plan to play Thursday in the BTT. I guess it depnds on where those 7 losses occur. :thumb:
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Well, the math doesn't lie! #finalfourbound
 
#65      

PlayAZ

P
PlayAZ
FatGreg said:
Assuming that we get Mark Smith, Brian Bowen, and a 6'10, rim-protecting 5th year big who averaged 13 & 8 at the mid-major level...and assuming JCL, TJL, Black, Finke, Nichols, et al improve a shocking amount...and assuming that one of Frazier and Smith goes full Trey Burke and turns out to be an obvious lottery talent from day one...I predict 32-7 with an E8 appearance :peace:
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Why such a pessimist? We easily only lose 3-4 with that projection...c'mon MAN, start drinking some more KOOL AID:eek:
 
#66      

Ga65

G
Ga65
We could have finished 11th with JG. Either you think coaching makes a difference or not. Next year's team has more talent than WI. Other than Happ who do you want to trade? If you can't win with a five star and a bunch of four stars you aren't on an upswing IMHO.
 
#67      

JIllini

J
JIllini
HTT said:
Another way to think about this is that BU went 9-9 in big 12 last season with one of the best PGs in the country. We do not have anyone remotely as talented as Evans plus B1G is tougher than big 12. A typical "Groce record" of 9-9 in B1G next year will not be easy at all.

If we hire Tony Bennett or Greg Marshall, I believe they will build a great defense with Tilmon, Black, and Tejon and we have good chance of making the tourney and even with a nice seeding. BU is not that kind of coach, so I am not sure what he can achieve with our squad at all.
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Uhh no it's not.

My thoughts...this season is very hard to predict. We could finish in the top 5, or in the bottom 5. I think people are underestimating how much of an impact freshmen can make. It's not that uncommon to see freshmen dominating, and it's not just 5 stars. People here just don't expect it because we haven't had a dominant freshman since Meyers Leonard. I don't think it's too crazy to think someone like Tilmon or Smith (if he commits) could have a huge impact immediately. This is our best recruiting class in years with a promising new coach who brings a totally new system. Of course, our returning players could continue to struggle and the freshmen may not be ready to take over just yet. It's hard to say.
 
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#68      

IntenselyOrange

I
IntenselyOrange
JIllini said:
Uhh no it's not.

My thoughts...this season is very hard to predict. We could finish in the top 5, or in the bottom 5. I think people are underestimating how much of an impact freshmen can make. It's not that uncommon to see freshmen dominating, and it's not just 5 stars. People here just don't expect it because we haven't had a dominant freshman since Meyers Leonard. I don't think it's too crazy to think someone like Tilmon or Smith (if he commits) could have a huge impact immediately. This is our best recruiting class in years with a promising new coach who brings a totally new system. Of course, our returning players could continue to struggle and the freshmen may not be ready to take over just yet. It's hard to say.
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Didn't Myers average like 2 points and fewer than 10 mpg as a freshman?
 
#69      

helppitch

H
helppitch
IlliniInTexas said:
Completely agree here. 11th is maybe a bit low, but 9/10th is probably about right. No way expecatations should be higher than this year's 8-10 while losing over 50% of our scoring from this year. Too much emphasis on the incoming Freshman class. The jewel of the class, Tilmon, is rated about where Leonard was coming out of HS. Meyers averaged 8 mpg while scoring 2 ppg. I'd expect more out of Tilmon given our roster, but not even close to replacing what Mav did for us this year.

The list got a little murkier with Trimble declaring today, and i think iowa a bit overrated here with the loss of Jok. I just don't see how we can reasonably expect a top 6 finish.
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Mav did pretty good offensively, but was not a good rebounder & his defense was TERRIBLE. Maybe worse than TERRIBLE.
 
#70      

helppitch

H
helppitch
FiveStar said:
It depends on what you want to emphasize. JCL's shooting fits in any system. His ball-handling does not fit any system. If he has even average handles for his size I think he'd be dynamite. The fact that he is a walking turnover when he puts the ball on the ground, which will be a major weapon in the half court, is concerning.

There are some specific 3 point counters that Underwood runs though. Some from the perimeter and some from the HP. JCL seems like a smart enough dude to learn the ins and outs of the system, so maybe his shooting can overshadow his poor handling.

OR, BU is the JCL whisperer, tightens his handles, maintains his shooting, and JCL is the biggest perimeter weapon we have next year.
Click to expand...

Just an opinion, but I think JCL will get a lot more good looks in Coach Underwood system.
 
#71      

Ubermensch

Ubermensch
BOOM! Feed my ego.
Ubermensch
Illinois is going to be in the NCAA tourney next year. I think lots of people, fans especially, underrate the talent that will be on this team. The Big Ten should be better next year, though.
 
#72      

foby

foby
Bonnaroo Land
foby
champaignchris said:
I really hope many of you are right and I'm surprised.

Unfortunately, I think many of you are going to be pretty disappointed.
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Just breath deeply and keep repeating...... "We have a new coach, we have a new system, we will not get swept by Penn St"
 
#73      

foby

foby
Bonnaroo Land
foby
HTT said:
Another way to think about this is that BU went 9-9 in big 12 last season with one of the best PGs in the country. We do not have anyone remotely as talented as Evans plus B1G is tougher than big 12. A typical "Groce record" of 9-9 in B1G next year will not be easy at all.
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Groce only hit as good as 9-9 one time. So I would say 8-10 would be actually considered more typical.