F/+ ratings:
Joker Phillips at Kentucky
2010: +3.8%
2011: -18.2%
2012: -21.5%
Mark Stoops at Kentucky
2013: -16.1%
2014: -5.2%
2015: -15.3%
Beckman/Cubit at Illinois
2013: -4.0%
2014: -8.0%
2015: +0.2%
Lovie at Illinois
2016: -25.3%
2017: -45.5%
2018: -39.2%
247 Recruiting Class Rankings
Mark Stoops at Kentucky
2014: 22nd
2015: 38th
2016: 34th
Lovie at Illinois
2017: 46th
2018: 53rd
2019: 66th (so far)
In the era for which we have reliable ways to quantify recruiting rankings and team quality there is no example in which three years like Lovie has had has turned into success. Nothing even close. There are precious few examples of being this bad for three years under one coach period.
Your F/+ ratings are completely missing a couple key factors:
1. Stoops was playing with much better talent than Lovie was in Years 1-3, and it's pretty drastic. Stoops first class is now seniors and just went 10-3.
- Three UI recruiting classes before Lovie and his first class (2014-2017) had 247 Avg. Ranking of: 0.8225, 0.8345, 0.8126, 0.8371
- Three UK recruiting classes before Stoops and his first class (2011-2014) had 247 Avg. Ranking of: 0.8406, 0.8372, 0.8486, 0.8683
2. Lovie has been intentionally playing all underclassmen in years 1-3 (especially 2 & 3) specifically because of #1 above. There was limited upperclassman talent, so he switched to a strategy of giving all of "his" guys experience.
And my thoughts on using "Class Rankings" instead of Avg. Rating is in a previous post.
I'm not saying that this is a perfect correlation by any means or that Illinois will definitely go the route of Kentucky under Lovie. I'm just saying that it's a recipe for success. Let a coach build a program over several years, institute a culture and system, and give it time to see how it works. The recruiting is trending in the right direction for Lovie. Now it's up to him to make sure the right coaches are in place to game plan, continue recruiting, and coach these kids up to their full potential. Will that happen? Will Illinois end up 10-3 in a few years? Remains to be seen.