Illini Basketball 2016-2017
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89illinigrad
- Chicago
I think that Finke and Morgan will come in around 5 ppg, only because they will not see as much playing time as last year assuming a healthy Thorne and Black.
Also, Jordan/DJW/Nichols should average about 5 ppg combined, as they will be backing up Hill and JCL, who probably won't be taking a lot of time off.
Finally, Austin and Liss are not going to play enough to add to our scoring average.
Add that up and you get to around 80 ppg.
illinitrav
- NW Suburbs
FYI here's how the 2016-2017 Non-Conference Schedule looks so far:
11/11 vs. Southeast Missouri State
11/13 vs. Northern Kentucky
11/24 vs. West Virginia (New York)
11/25 vs. Temple/Florida State (New York)
11/29 vs. NC State (ACC/B1G)
12/03 vs. VCU (Miami)
12/06 vs. IUPUI
12/10 vs. Central Michigan
12/17 vs. BYU (United Center)
12/21 vs. Mizzou (StL)
Illinois will also be playing Detroit at home as part of the NIT Tip Off as well as one game against either Winthrop, Manhattan, or New Hampshire. Winthrop makes the most sense geographically. These games will likely be played the week of 11/14-11/20.
That leaves one more non-conference opponent. I assume it will be a cupcake at home either between the CMU and BYU game or after the Mizzou game prior to the start of B1G play.
11/11 vs. Southeast Missouri State
11/13 vs. Northern Kentucky
11/24 vs. West Virginia (New York)
11/25 vs. Temple/Florida State (New York)
11/29 vs. NC State (ACC/B1G)
12/03 vs. VCU (Miami)
12/06 vs. IUPUI
12/10 vs. Central Michigan
12/17 vs. BYU (United Center)
12/21 vs. Mizzou (StL)
Illinois will also be playing Detroit at home as part of the NIT Tip Off as well as one game against either Winthrop, Manhattan, or New Hampshire. Winthrop makes the most sense geographically. These games will likely be played the week of 11/14-11/20.
That leaves one more non-conference opponent. I assume it will be a cupcake at home either between the CMU and BYU game or after the Mizzou game prior to the start of B1G play.
haasi
- New York
Scoring of top 8 players usually tracks total team scoring pretty closely (barring a year with major injuries to high minutes players like last year), so it's a good metric.
But it might be optimistic to figure Thorne/Mav/Finke/Black combining for 35 points a game. Last year they combined for 33, and that was with Thorne and Black out many games, artificially boosting the total by keeping their averages high while Finke and Mav played full time
illinitrav
- NW Suburbs
Yep looks like Detroit on 11/18 and Winthrop on 11/21. Hopefully 4-0 heading into the NIT Tip Off.
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
So 80 ppg for the top 8 is only two off from the 78 ppg I said initially. I'd take one ppg each off for Black and Finke. Or take off 0.5 or 1 ppg off of Malcolm since, while it's certainly possible, I'd call it maybe a 50% chance he hit's 20 ppg. I do think JCL makes a big jumps and ends up in the mid-teens.
I don't think an improvement of 6 ppg for this team is that crazy what with what we are gaining back, the balance, and improvement from the fact that almost all of our major pieces return.
As most of us presumed, this means that Black will be available for the West Virginia game.
t7nich
- Central IL
Definitely do-able. The Winthrop game should be fun. They have lots of upperclassmen, including Sr Keon Johnson, 5’7”, who averaged 18.7 ppg last year. Tracy will have his hands full with this kid. But, their other top scorer graduated (and played in NBA summer league I think) Jimmy Gavin, averaged 18.7 ppg as well.
Interesting. I'm somewhat surprised there will not be one true road game, which the NCAA tournament selection committee seams to value. Five "neutral" site games is pretty good though.
This is not a new phenomenon, true road non-conference games are pretty rare for any P5 team. Events like the ACC/B1G challenge and the Gavitt Games are often the only way that happens. Has been the case for quite some time now, all the big games are neutral court match ups.
Stat police here. I agree that adding 6 ppg to last year's scoring sounds plausible in a vacuum. However, say you add 6.0 ppg to last year's 72.1, bringing us up to 78.1 ppg. Context over the last 10 years:
-In 2015-16, 78.1 ppg would tie Iowa for 4th in the B1G (highest scoring year for the conference in over two decades)
-2014-15, it would rank 1st (Indiana led with 77.5)
-2013-14, it would rank 2nd (Iowa: 82.0)
-2012-13, it would rank 2nd (Indiana: 80.0)
-2011-12, it would rank 1st (Indiana: 77.3)
-2010-11, it would rank 1st (tOSU: 77.1)
-2009-10, it would rank 1st by a huge margin (tOSU: 73.8)
-2008-09, it would rank 1st by a huge margin (MSU: 71.9)
-2007-08, it would rank 1st (Indiana: 75.1)
-2006-07, it would rank 1st (tOSU: 73.6)
-2005-06, it would rank 1st (tOSU: 74.7)
Also, 78.1 ppg would be the highest scoring average for Illinois since 1993-94 (in 2004-05, we averaged 77.4). That '93-94 team featured Deon Thomas, Kiwane Garris, T.J. Wheeler, Shelly Clark, Richard Keene, and Jerry Hester, among others.
All that said, obviously the recent rule changes--esp. the shot clock change--have increased scoring by a not insignificant margin. I think there's an outside chance we'll hit 78 ppg, but it would represent one of the best scoring seasons in the entire conference over the last 20 years and our best in 23. Also, as much as Groce has said he wants to play fast, his highest scoring Ohio team only averaged 74.7 ppg. He hasn't shown an actual commitment to playing uptempo--he's much more of a play D/don't commit turnovers kind of coach and both the stats and the eye test bear it out.
It's hard this time of year to accept that, barring injuries to starters, 3-4 of AJ, DJW, Kipper, Te'Jon, Mav, and Finke will spend the season glued to the bench, but history shows it's almost certain to work out that way. Furthermore, the 8th guy in the rotation usually averages something like 3 pts and the 7th doesn't usually break 6-7 pts.
Hill's mid-range game is an anomaly in a time where most NCAA players can only 1) shoot 3's or 2) drive to the hoop. It's refreshing to watch his offensive game evolve.
I do not see the same progress with his defensive game. Maybe they could "hide" him a bit on certain teams, but I think he has a very difficult path to an NBA career without working on his lateral quickness. The NBA athlete is too explosive for his defensive game right now.
At any rate, really glad that he's getting attention. I think he will have a long professional career, TBD on what league and continent it is in.
haasi
- New York
Agree with everything you said. But I think we might have reasonable hope for defensive improvement this year given his athletic progress over the summer and that it's his senior year, and I'm sure he'll be extremely motivated.
Gonzaga and UNLV certainly come to mind. Oregon, Auburn, Georgia and one of the Gonzaga games were at least similar to the United Center game and not truly neutral.
I do agree that it has been rare for a true home and home non-conference series. Gonzaga for 2 of the 4 games and Georgetown are the last ones I recall.
I love Hill's game aesthetically, and he's just too skilled and physically mature at this point for college players to stop. Like you said, his mid-range game is pure butter and then he can also stroke the 3 at a decent clip and abuse smaller defenders in the post. I think he'll be one of the best players in college basketball this year. However, his game isn't really compatible with analytics-driven models (see Golden State Warriors).
The reason most players these days don't take mid-range shots is that they're statistically inefficient. Frankly, in terms of Points Per Possession, the very best thing you can do is jack up tons of threes early in the shot clock; if you're hitting at anything north of 30%, you're winning the data game...then, teams will have to close out harder and expand the umbrella on the perimeter, so to speak. When that happens, you have people cut and roll mercilessly and have your best ball handlers attack: you try to score uncontested layups and draw fouls. If a team then has to pack it in, it's bombs away again. Taking long 2's is a losing proposition unless you're hitting at 50%...which Malcolm can almost do, so it's fine at this level. Just not going to translate. He needs to start hitting 38% from long range and taking more 3's if he wants to get drafted.
We'll see what he can do defensively with substantial gains in strength/explosiveness and a leaner frame. I've been saying it for a while now, but Hill isn't done maturing physically. There's only 5 or 6 players on that Nike Academy roster younger than him. Sometimes I wonder what Hill's outlook would be if he wasn't a year up in school. If we found out he would legitimately have a 6-7" increase in his vertical and newfound athleticism going into what should be his first upperclassman season as a junior, that would make people wonder. There clearly is a window to be missed regarding the draft, but I'm convinced by the time Hill is 22(age of your average college senior) he legitimately may be jumping 40+ inches.
Lot's of opportunities for quality resume building wins, but also a lot of opportunities for early season slip ups. Should be an interesting non-conference experience. I think we will go 9-3 including the Winthrop and Detroit home games. I put an example of how I could see it playing out above. 10-2 would be the highest expectation I could possibly see on that schedule, but 9-3 is definitely acceptable.
Is that Louis the III?
I was just getting ready to do this research. Lol. Fans almost always predict too high.
Fair points. I really like Hill the 22yo man a lot, not just the bball player. I hope he is able to see some benefits from his hard work. I might be more skeptical than most about him overcoming his issues defending, but wish him the best of luck and will be cheering for him to improve.
For what it's worth (little!), no Malcom Hill on the NBA 2017 mock draft at this time. Only *two upperclassmen projected in the first round. Ridiculous.
http://www.nbadraft.net/2017mock_draft
http://www.nbadraft.net/2017mock_draft
RichBradIllini
- Peoria
The man was averaging over 35 minutes per game last year. Every reason to believe with the body maturity and work he's been putting in, and, more team talent talent to share minutes his defense will improve. Hopefully.
His defense improved greatly last season and isn't a concern, IMO.
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