Illini Basketball 2017-2018

IlliniinIowa · Oct 14, 2017

jrichisamazing said:
Because UCLA led the country in scoring at 91 PPG. And they played in the trashy PAC-12, a conference that plays wide open and isn't good. The B1G is tougher than the Big 12 and plays at a slower pace. And the stats back that up.

In the last 10 years, the highest scoring team each season in the B1G ranges from 72-82 PPG. And a few of those years are under 75 PPG.

We won't be even close to 90 PPG.

Exactly right. Thinking this Illinois team with a new coach and all these new players are going to come into the Big Ten and average over 90 points per game is not fair to them and setting them up for failure. Big Ten teams are MUCH BETTER defensively than any other league in the country. I'd take 80 ppg average in a heartbeat!!

Excited about the season!!! But keeping my hopes tempered. :thumb:

Illwinsagain · Oct 14, 2017

MonteGoesWeGo said:
90 for the season. 97-98 for nonconference (there should be multiple games we score 100+ to make the average higher than it really should be), and around 80-83 in conference)

Personally, I would look for 90 non-con and high 70's for conf play. Since we play more con vs. non-con (ok, if we are one and done in B1G tourney and have a deep run in the NCAA, we may be able to balance it out), I would look for an average in the low 80's.

By the way, if they can do the above, it will be a lot of fun to watch, as long as we are not giving up 85 a game.

LarryGotFouled · Oct 14, 2017

ivwilsoniv said:
Jon Rothstein on Twitter: "Early prediction on Illinois' starting five: Te'Jon Lucas, Mark Smith, Mark Alstork, Leron Black, Michael Finke."

Thoughts? Everyone agree? Who is most likely to not be starting of those 5 and who replaces that person?

That'd be my bet. However, I think Trent will make a hard push for Te'Jon's spot during the year. At any rate, he will play plenty of minutes - even if first off the bench.

I'd be tempted to start Kipper over Leron - even though I know it's not going to happen. I would feel better about Leron and Finke splitting up rather than getting tired together. They bring different things to the table. I could also see Kipper at the 4 and Leron at pinch post. They are both very good rebounders for their size and we would create some matchup problems for people. We all know Leron can hit that elbow jumper pretty consistently. I worry that he will not be a good enough passer to hit the cutters in that position though.

Illwinsagain · Oct 14, 2017

LarryGotFouled said:
That'd be my bet. However, I think Trent will make a hard push for Te'Jon's spot during the year. At any rate, he will play plenty of minutes - even if first off the bench.

I'd be tempted to start Kipper over Leron - even though I know it's not going to happen. I would feel better about Leron and Finke splitting up rather than getting tired together. They bring different things to the table. I could also see Kipper at the 4 and Leron at pinch post. They are both very good rebounders for their size and we would create some matchup problems for people. We all know Leron can hit that elbow jumper pretty consistently. I worry that he will not be a good enough passer to hit the cutters in that position though.

That would shock me, Underwood told Leron that he thought he could me all B1G. If he is, he won't be coming off the bench.

LarryGotFouled · Oct 14, 2017

Illwinsagain said:
That would shock me, Underwood told Leron that he thought he could me all B1G. If he is, he won't be coming off the bench.

No - you're right, I don't see it happening. However, I don't see the 'all B1G' thing either. I like Leron but he seems like a complementary player - brings energy, some mid range shooting and aggressive rebounding. That doesn't scream all B1G to me. I really like Kipper's potential and the things he does well will be emphasized by Underwood's offense. If we weren't so size challenged, he might be a better fit as a backup for Alstork this year. I hope AJ can take a big step up to fill that role well.

DMW is a wild card. Back in Aug, thought he was a RS candidate to rehab. Now reports are that he's fully caught up and turning heads in practice. Where does he fit? Is it possible he's taking the minutes when Alstork sits?

I think MS and MA are set to play as much as they're able and one of TJL, DMW or TF will emerge from the pack. TJL has an edge due to experience, but there is a lot of potential in that mix.

Illwinsagain · Oct 14, 2017

LarryGotFouled said:
No - you're right, I don't see it happening. However, I don't see the 'all B1G' thing either. I like Leron but he seems like a complementary player - brings energy, some mid range shooting and aggressive rebounding. That doesn't scream all B1G to me. I really like Kipper's potential and the things he does well will be emphasized by Underwood's offense. If we weren't so size challenged, he might be a better fit as a backup for Alstork this year. I hope AJ can take a big step up to fill that role well.

DMW is a wild card. Back in Aug, thought he was a RS candidate to rehab. Now reports are that he's fully caught up and turning heads in practice. Where does he fit? Is it possible he's taking the minutes when Alstork sits?

I think MS and MA are set to play as much as they're able and one of TJL, DMW or TF will emerge from the pack. TJL has an edge due to experience, but there is a lot of potential in that mix.

I'm hoping that we have enough good depth, that no one averages more than 30 minutes a game. Of course, in a tight game, a coach wants to have his best players out there, so we will see.

foby · Oct 14, 2017

IlliniinIowa said:
Exactly right. Thinking this Illinois team with a new coach and all these new players are going to come into the Big Ten and average over 90 points per game is not fair to them and setting them up for failure. Big Ten teams are MUCH BETTER defensively than any other league in the country. I'd take 80 ppg average in a heartbeat!!

Excited about the season!!! But keeping my hopes tempered. :thumb:

Had to do that for about 10 years in a row. I'm all in this season.

americanoutlaw11 · Oct 14, 2017

Illwinsagain said:
I'm hoping that we have enough good depth, that no one averages more than 30 minutes a game. Of course, in a tight game, a coach wants to have his best players out there, so we will see.

Yeah, one would think, buuuuttttt.... Remember John Groce???

AttentionDeficit · Oct 14, 2017

IlliniinIowa said:
Big Ten teams are MUCH BETTER defensively than any other league in the country. I'd take 80 ppg average in a heartbeat!!

This may be true in an overall recent historical sense, and my preferred stat site doesn't have league based breakdowns, but i believe i can show that last year's B10 is not a defensive gauntlet the likes of which Underwood has never seen.

These are the national rankings of last year's Big10 teams based on KenPom's AdjD:
Wisconsin 9
Minnesota 22
Purdue 23
Northwestern 32
Illinois 35
Michigan St. 38
Penn ST. 52
Maryland 64
Rutgers 69
Michigan 70
Nebraska 77
Ohio St. 99
Indiana 104
Iowa 122

There are some good defenses, there are some meh defenses. When you average the AdjD stat (not the rating) for the entire B10 last year you get a value of 97.59. The average that Underwood faced last year at Oklahoma State (not in the Big 12, but for the entire season) - 97.5, and lower is better.

So for last year, according to KenPom's ratings, Oklahoma State's average opponent for the entire season was a marginally better defensive team than the average Big 10 team. When you take Illinois' number out of the equation (since we won't be playing ourselves) the B10 gets slightly weaker as we were in the top half of the league last year.

While Tempo is another matter and will also play a part in suppressing pts/game, the idea that B10 defenses are going to be more difficult is not supported by the stats.

FiveStar · Oct 14, 2017

ivwilsoniv said:
Jon Rothstein on Twitter: "Early prediction on Illinois' starting five: Te'Jon Lucas, Mark Smith, Mark Alstork, Leron Black, Michael Finke."

Thoughts? Everyone agree? Who is most likely to not be starting of those 5 and who replaces that person?

When Underwood was first hired I was scared of this lineup for big depth purposes and because I didn’t think Leron had the necessary perimeter skills. Then when BU said in a summer interview that Leron had way better handles than he thought, I felt better about it. With the seeming growth of Ebo, and kipper to back them all up in a pinch, I feel much better about it. The best 5 guys gotta start.

kuhl84 · Oct 14, 2017

FiveStar said:
When Underwood was first hired I was scared of this lineup for big depth purposes and because I didn’t think Leron had the necessary perimeter skills. Then when BU said in a summer interview that Leron had way better handles than he thought, I felt better about it. With the seeming growth of Ebo, and kipper to back them all up in a pinch, I feel much better about it. The best 5 guys gotta start.

Leron and Finke probably both start, but I don't see either of them playing more than 25 mpg. The rotations will be really interesting. Do you only play them together for 10- 15 mpg, or sit them both together some and put Ebo and 4 guards and really pressure the ball.

It will be really interesting to see how they handle from game to game and within games.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

jrichisamazing · Oct 14, 2017

AttentionDeficit said:
This may be true in an overall recent historical sense, and my preferred stat site doesn't have league based breakdowns, but i believe i can show that last year's B10 is not a defensive gauntlet the likes of which Underwood has never seen.

These are the national rankings of last year's Big10 teams based on KenPom's AdjD:
Wisconsin 9
Minnesota 22
Purdue 23
Northwestern 32
Illinois 35
Michigan St. 38
Penn ST. 52
Maryland 64
Rutgers 69
Michigan 70
Nebraska 77
Ohio St. 99
Indiana 104
Iowa 122

There are some good defenses, there are some meh defenses. When you average the AdjD stat (not the rating) for the entire B10 last year you get a value of 97.59. The average that Underwood faced last year at Oklahoma State (not in the Big 12, but for the entire season) - 97.5, and lower is better.

So for last year, according to KenPom's ratings, Oklahoma State's average opponent for the entire season was a marginally better defensive team than the average Big 10 team. When you take Illinois' number out of the equation (since we won't be playing ourselves) the B10 gets slightly weaker as we were in the top half of the league last year.

While Tempo is another matter and will also play a part in suppressing pts/game, the idea that B10 defenses are going to be more difficult is not supported by the stats.

Tempo is the key. We can't score 90 per game simply because the B1G won't allow us to put up that many shots.

I can't stress enough that tempo is going to be at the top of every team's scouting report when they play us this season. They all know BU has a great offense which means the more possessions we get, the better chance we have of winning. The only coach that will probably try to run with us is Fran because Iowa always tries to play fast. Archie Miller might try to play up and down too, but I haven't watched his teams play much. Everyone else in the B1G is going to try and slow us down.

jrichisamazing · Oct 14, 2017

And to continue the tempo talk...our defense will be the catalyst for how fast we can play. BU plays pressure defense. The problem with that is it's exactly the opposite of what Groce taught. BU wants to create turnovers and deny the ball. Groce wanted to clog the lane and force outside jumpers. Hopefully the team can transition nicely, but who knows. I do think Tejon is a perfect fit for BU's defense. He was our best on ball defender last year and he's great at pressuring the opposing team's PG. Groce just rarely let him do it. Tejon's defense is the reason I think he will start every game this season, barring injury.

jrichisamazing · Oct 14, 2017

MonteGoesWeGo said:
Doesn't Michigan have relatively high possessions per game as well?

No. 338th in adjusted tempo according to kenpom

Deleted member 29907 · Oct 14, 2017

FiveStar said:
When Underwood was first hired I was scared of this lineup for big depth purposes and because I didn’t think Leron had the necessary perimeter skills. Then when BU said in a summer interview that Leron had way better handles than he thought, I felt better about it. With the seeming growth of Ebo, and kipper to back them all up in a pinch, I feel much better about it. The best 5 guys gotta start.

So, here is a theory, its possible we never really saw the real Leron. JG's offense and defense were SO slow and deliberate I think he was out of place and out of his tempo 90% of the time during games. Somewhat of a hyper active kid made to sit in the corner - he'll get in trouble just to cut the boredom.

Ibball62 · Oct 14, 2017

Has anyone gone to practice lately? Looks like they had a large crowd today. Any info will help me reach for the hype KOOL-Aid!

TheLegendaryOne24 · Oct 14, 2017

Combes

Not even a sample video of today's practice ?????

It was packed in there.....

Illini B-Ball Fan · Oct 14, 2017

MonteGoesWeGo said:
agree. Watching Leron's high school highlights he seemed to be a much more skilled player on the perimeter with good handles for his size.

Leron was really good to be awarded Tennessee Mr. Basketball. He should have an interesting year with a new coach and different basketball system.

mdonsbach · Oct 14, 2017

I'd say so far a step up from last years. Inspiration hit Rob!

[YOUTUBE]FwV0X56Fv5c[/YOUTUBE]

FC Illiniman · Oct 14, 2017

9 players will avg more than 10 mpg this year, and would not be surprised if 5 average double figure. If this happens, we will be in good shape, lots of balance and rest will mean wins. Think that's where a good coach will shine. Rotation and timing, not let games get out of hand, and keep the horses reined in if things get wild.

illiniguy24 · Oct 14, 2017

jrichisamazing said:
Because UCLA led the country in scoring at 91 PPG. And they played in the trashy PAC-12, a conference that plays wide open and isn't good. The B1G is tougher than the Big 12 and plays at a slower pace. And the stats back that up.

In the last 10 years, the highest scoring team each season in the B1G ranges from 72-82 PPG. And a few of those years are under 75 PPG.

We won't be even close to 90 PPG.

I don't think it's fair to say the PAC-12 'isn't good'

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

combes · Oct 15, 2017

TheLegendaryOne24 said:
Combes

Not even a sample video of today's practice ?????

It was packed in there.....

Sorry. I didn’t make it. I was at Ayo’s workout in the morning. I told my wife I would go with her the the Showcase of Homes in the afternoon. Then I found out about the 2:30 practice.

I probably could have weaseled out of the house thing and gone to the practice, but I have been married for 33 years for a reason. Lol

TALKTOCHUCK · Oct 15, 2017

ivwilsoniv said:
Jon Rothstein on Twitter: "Early prediction on Illinois' starting five: Te'Jon Lucas, Mark Smith, Mark Alstork, Leron Black, Michael Finke."

Thoughts? Everyone agree? Who is most likely to not be starting of those 5 and who replaces that person?

Great starting 5. There are going to be so many shots available. This is why we need Ayo. If Alstork can live up to his rep, he is going to score a ton this season.

TheLegendaryOne24 · Oct 15, 2017

TALKTOCHUCK said:
Great starting 5. There are going to be so many shots available. This is why we need Ayo. If Alstork can live up to his rep, he is going to score a ton this season.

Alstork is going to play big part but I'm going to put my apples in the Mark Smith bucket......

Again, Ayo would be a nice land for future recruiting but I still don't see Trent and D-Will allowing for it....one of those two are going to want that vacant spot...if these team over achieves (NCAA Bid) you are going to have some really hungry returning players....IMO

BMo79 · Oct 15, 2017

EfremWinters84 said:
I envision DAMONTE being this generation's Frankie Williams...........

I think DaMonte, is more like a Serg only way more athletic, he is going to play alot of places on the court, and do alot of things besides scoring

Illini Basketball 2017-2018

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